Tag Archives: Financial Independence

How the USMCA affects Canadian homebuyers

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By Jordan Lavin, Ratehub.ca

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Goodbye NAFTA, hello US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

The new trade deal with our neighbours to the south will have wide-reaching effects across all areas of our economy, and housing is no exception. While the agreement is said to be good for our economy overall, it’s not necessarily good news for your ability to afford a home.

What is the USMCA?

Canada recently reached an agreement with the United States and Mexico to replace NAFTA, the decades-old trade agreement that has stood since it was signed by Brian Mulroney, Bill Clinton and Carlos Salinas de Gortari.

The new agreement looks much like the old one, with some changes. Key differences include changes to the way the three countries approach auto manufacturing, fewer restrictions on trade of dairy products, and stronger measures against counterfeiting and media piracy. Like NAFTA, the USMCA makes it possible for the three countries to exchange goods without barriers.

For now, the US, Mexico and Canada will continue trading under the rules of NAFTA. The USMCA will come into effect once it’s ratified by its members, a process that could take months. In the United States, congress won’t vote on ratification until some time next year due to that county’s mid-term elections. Here in Canada, the looming Federal election means that if the USMCA isn’t made official by June, it could be delayed until 2020.

How does this affect Canadian housing?

If you’re wondering how having access to American milk at your local Superstore can possibly affect how much mortgage you can afford, you’re not alone. The implications for home affordability are driven by the market’s reaction to the uncertainty of the negotiation period, the removal of uncertainty brought by a signed agreement, and the actual economic growth that’s expected to occur because of the USMCA once it’s in force.

When the Trump administration demanded to renegotiate “the worst trade deal” ever, the market got spooked. As the trade war intensified, the US threatened to (and did) impose significant tariffs on imports from Canada. With repeated threats from our largest trading partner, there was a real chance that the Canadian economy could be jeopardized. Even though our economy was growing during that time, the Bank of Canada (BoC) was reluctant to raise interest rates, which it would normally do in that situation. Continue Reading…

If you have no faith in the future, should you invest?

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By Billy Kaderli

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

As many know, I am more than willing to offer financial advice in order to help others to become financially independent (aka “findependent.”) The sooner the better” that’s good for everyone, right?

I met a lady at a recent event that Akaisha and I attended, and in our visiting together I steered the conversation towards finances. Knowing that she lived in Hawaii and seeing that she was probably in her 40s, I falsely assumed she had some knowledge of money and how it works.

I was wrong.

After I shared with her that we retired at the age of 38, I asked what her financial plan for retirement was. She told me that she did not have much faith in the future, therefore she had no plan.

I asked her, “What if you are wrong?”

Her response was “I do not think I am wrong”

The Dollar is going to collapse

I have been hearing of the impending collapse of the Dollar for the last forty years.

First it was going to be replaced with the German Mark, then the Swiss Franc, then the Russian Ruble, Chinese Yuan, and now Bitcoin. Maybe someday they will be right, but so far, betting against the Dollar has been a costly investment.

I like to tell people that the Dollar is the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry bin. Maybe you have some special inside trading information, but for me, I’ll stick with the U.S. currency.

Various apocalyptic scenarios

Maybe it’s part of being human, but it seems that society creates ominous future scenarios of various sorts to scare the living bejesus out of everyone. Continue Reading…

Could you become car-free?

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Billy and Akaisha on a Jak-a-Ran in Thailand

By Akaisha Kaderli, RetireEarlyLifestyle.com

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

It wasn’t a decision we took lightly.

In fact, Billy and I discussed the idea of becoming car-free for several years. There were good reasons to do it: no more maintenance and repair costs; no more fees for insurance, license plate renewal, or registration; no more fuel expense; and no more worry about storing the vehicle here in the States when we are traveling overseas for months or years at a time.

But there were also some obvious downsides. We wouldn’t have the freedom to come and go at a whim. And because we live in the American Southwest, where temperatures reach triple digits in the summer, we wondered how we’d manage to get around during the sun season.

Silly idea or feasible plan?

Most people we know couldn’t fathom the idea of giving up their vehicle and saw this new lifestyle choice as a hardship. Americans love their automobiles, and owning one is packaged as part of the American Dream. A look at the automobile and truck commercials today describe how we will be sexier, more popular, physically stronger, and obviously smarter if we purchase their brand of car.

As we’ve described on our Retire Early Lifestyle website, Billy and I live in an active adult community where we are within walking distance to stores, restaurants, and several different entertainment options. Most of what we need is near to us, and we appreciate the slower pace of life with all the rewards it brings. Many of our neighbors use a small scooter, golf cart, or bicycle to get around within a reasonable range. When we need to go somewhere farther, we trade services or pay cash to a neighbor or friend for their time. This is much cheaper than a taxi, more sociable, and we aren’t bogged down with worries about maintaining a vehicle. Both sides appreciate the trade, and our lives are enriched.

After almost two decades of world travel, we realized that the only place where we need to drive is in the States. Elsewhere, we take public transportation or hire a private driver. For the amount of time we live in the States, and for the amount of money that owning our own transport required, we finalized our decision to sell our vehicle.

The year was 2009.

What about you? 

Retirement takes many expressions and even if you could never see yourself as becoming completely free of car ownership, maybe you have toyed with the idea of keeping only one vehicle instead of two.

The following sites may help you with this transition: Continue Reading…

Which Robo Advisor differs from the other?

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By Dale Roberts

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

I recently penned the blog What and who are the Canadian Robo Advisors? That blog outlined how, true to the moniker, a robo advisor is an online financial advisor without the human.

Well, let’s say that at times there is no human present. In actuality the robo advisors are all quite human and they all have a unique personality. Think Star Wars and the loveable tin cans known as R2-D2 and C-3PO. They are very different in voice and personality.

Above left is R2 …

And to the right is my robo mascot …

The answer to the question posed in the headline is that all of the robo advisors are different, at times very different from one another. That’s why it’s important to know and understand these differences so that you might be able to find the robo that’s right for you. Getting in the ‘right robo’ might make a difference of thousands to tens of thousands of dollars or more over an investment lifetime.

The ‘robots’ don’t think in a pure sense. In most cases, this is not artificial intelligence at work. The process involves investment concepts and approach(es) and then mountains of computer programming applied so that the robo platforms can follow the direction of the human financial gurus who set the course for each robo advisor.

The Chief Investment Officers and their teams can and do also make adjustments on the fly. Some may react to market conditions. That may seem ironic given that the robo advisors will mostly embrace and use mostly passive Exchange Traded Funds, but they will then get a little more active with regards to asset allocation and types of funds used based on changing market conditions. All said, that will be one of the factors that I track moving forward as we compare the performance of the Canadian robos.

Robos can be passive or active

Some robos are more passive, some robos are very active.

One of the robo advisors, responsive, is considered AI-based as the platform will automatically change the asset allocation (mix of stocks and bonds) based on many market and economic indicators. Continue Reading…

Resilience in the face of Market Volatility

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By Fritz Gilbert,

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

The market’s been a bit “wobbly” in the past few days, in case you haven’t noticed.

We shouldn’t be surprised, and we shouldn’t worry.

Today, I’ve chosen to talk about market volatility, and how we should think about volatility in terms of our overall retirement plans.

As I write these words, the S&P 500 was down another 2%, on top of a 3.3% decline yesterday.

Down 5% In Two Days.  Yep, that’s volatility.

Here’s the 5-day chart:

Down … down … down.

But, it’s no big deal

Funny thing about markets, they’re volatile.  As Ben Carlson wrote last Friday, the market has averaged a daily drop in excess of 3% three times per yearsince 1928.  So, we should expect “Big Down Days” on a regular basis, even if we haven’t seen too many of them lately.  One interesting note is that 80% of those “Big Down Days” occur during a market correction or bear market.  Makes sense, but it can and does happen during Bull markets, as well.

Here’s what I posted on Twitter after the Big Down Days last week:

I’ve no idea where things will go from here. In all honesty, I really don’t care.  I know markets will go up, and markets will go down, and we’d be naive to assume otherwise as we plan for our retirement.  I don’t check the market daily, and I don’t worry about daily volatility.

Markets Go Up, And Markets Go Down. Make sure you prepare for volatility as part of your retirement plan.

Let’s Be Real.  The CAPE ratio continues at abnormal highs, which increases the likelihood of subpar performance over the coming years.  I’m expecting it, and I’ve incorporated it into our retirement withdrawal strategy. As of October 16th, after two consecutive down days of 2%+ declines in the S&P 500, the CAPE ration remains at a level of 30.80, well above historical norms of 16.6, as shown below:

We’re being unrealistic if we expect the market to continue an uninterrupted upward trend, especially in light of today’s high valuations. Volatility is real, so make sure you incorporate it into your retirement plans.

One Day’s Decline = One Year Of Withdrawals

As I thought about the market’s move on October 10, I realized that the 3%+ move was equivalent to an entire year’s Safe Withdrawal Rate, and I sent the following Tweet:

Resilience In The Face of Market Volatility

Rather than worry about the volatility, Be Resilient.  Think about volatility before you retire, and incorporate your strategy for volatility into your retirement planning.

As part of our retirement planning, we have to be realistic to the fact that markets will face volatility.  They always have, and they always will.  It’s the way the world turns, and we’re well advised to plan accordingly.   It’s why I built my Bucket Strategy as my primary plan for Retirement Income, and it’s the reason I really don’t worry as the market ebbs and flows over any given day.  In fact, I don’t even watch the market dynamics on a day-to-day basis.

On a long-term basis, it doesn’t really matter.

I don’t watch the market on a day-to-day basis. I know our Bucket Strategy will cover all but the worst Bear Market. Click To Tweet

Markets will be volatile. 

It’s the nature of The Beast.  Plan for it, and have sufficient funds to absorb a significant market downturn should it happen in the early years of your retirement.

Best to plan for the worst, and hope for the best.

Fritz Gilbert is the Founder of The Retirement Manifesto, a Plutus Award winning blog dedicated to helping people Achieve A Great Retirement.  After 30+ years in Corporate America, most recently as a Commodity Trader, Fritz retired as planned in June 2018 at Age 55.  He and his wife are looking forward to extended travel and “giving back” to their community through charitable work in retirement. This blog was published on his website on Oct. 16, 2018 and is republished here with his permission.