Tag Archives: hedging

Is using Inverse ETFs akin to Market Timing?

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By John De Goey, CFP, CIM

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Early in 2020, I re-positioned a meaningful portion of my clients’ equity positions into inverse products (they go up when the market goes down and down when the market goes up).  Critics, colleagues, suppliers and friends have seized the opportunity to call me a “market timer.” I beg to differ.

What I am doing is putting something that might be generally described as a form of insurance in place: expressly in light of high valuations.  The Shiller CAPE (a widely accepted benchmark for market valuations) for the S&P 500 is currently over 31 and has hovered between 28 and 33 for about three years now.  The historical average is under 17.

Think of buying a ten-year life insurance policy when you take on a mortgage.  Is that an example of “death timing?  Are you buying insurance because you EXPECT to die in the ensuing decade – or simply to protect against the consequences of something terrible happening?

If you don’t die in the decade, but still have a mortgage, are you ‘stubbornly doubling down’ after having made the ‘wrong call’?  If a decade were to pass and you were still breathing, was the money spent on premiums over the previous decade ‘wasted’?  To hear my critics … and to extend their logic based on what they are telling me, the answers would all be an accusatory “yes” to all these questions.

Here’s my thinking as explained via metaphor:

What I’m saying/ doing                    The Insurance Equivalent

Inverse sleeve                                   Term life insurance

Temporarily high valuations                Temporary unfunded liability on death

Renew if still high                               Renew if unfunded liability persists

Cancel if no longer high                      Cancel if unfunded liability is paid off

Offer relief if markets tumble               Offer relief if premature death

Everyone dies eventually.  Markets always have major pullbacks eventually.  No one knows when either is likely to happen.  See the parallel? Despite all this, people are generally portrayed as being “prudent” when they buy life insurance, but “market timers” when they incorporate an inverse sleeve.  I simply don’t buy it.  Perhaps I should start challenging my critics, colleagues, suppliers and friends for their “reckless disregard for the substantial risk they are taking while doing nothing to manage that risk.”  See what I did there?

John De Goey, CIM, CFP, FP Canada™ Fellow, is a Portfolio Manager with Toronto-based Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc. This blog originally appeared on the firm’s “Newswire” site on Feb. 5, 2020 and is republished on the Hub with permission.

Currency investing may seem appealing but you’ll lose in the long run

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It’s A Rare Investor Who Makes Enough Profit From Long-Term Currency Investing Activities To Compensate For The Risk Involved

As a general rule, we advise against long-term currency investing speculation for many of the same reasons we advise against options trading and bond trading. It’s a rare investor who makes enough profit from these activities to compensate for the risk involved.

Our view is that if you like a currency’s outlook, you should buy stocks that will profit from a rise in that currency. Our longstanding advice is to invest mainly in well-established companies. Avoid exposure to currency trading, penny stocks, new issues, options, futures or any high-risk investments. That way, while you may experience modest losses when markets drop, you should show overall positive results over time.

Keep hedged ETFs as a long-term currency investing strategy out of your portfolio

If you want to buy U.S. stocks and hedge against currency movements, you could buy a hedged ETF.

Hedged ETFs, like, say, the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (symbol XUS on Toronto) are funds sold in Canada that hold U.S. stocks. However, they are hedged against any movement of the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar. That means that the ETF’s Canadian-dollar value rises and falls solely with the movements of the stocks in the portfolio.

For example, if a stock rises 10% on, say, New York, but also rises a further 5% for Canadian investors due to an increase in the U.S. dollar, a holder of a hedged ETF would only see a 10% rise in the value of that holding in their hedged ETF. At the same time, the reverse is also true: If a stock rises 10% on New York, but falls 5% for Canadian investors due to a decrease in the U.S. dollar, a holder of a hedged ETF would still only see a 10% rise in the value of that holding as part of their hedged ETF.

Note, though, that hedged funds include extra fees to pay for the hedging contracts needed to factor out currency movements. Of course, those costs can rise or fall regardless of currency swings.

Hedging against changes in the U.S. dollar only works in your favour when the value of the U.S. dollar drops in relation to the Canadian currency. If the U.S. dollar rises while your investment is hedged, it reduces any gain you’d otherwise enjoy, or expands a loss. Continue Reading…

Italian Economics: Watch Salvini

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By Jeff Weniger, CFA, WisdomTree Investments

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

In April, the Italian public was so incensed by the country’s broken government budget, endemic graft and unaffordable inward migration that half of the general election vote went to two protest parties. On the left, the Five Star Movement topped all, with 32% support, while the right-wing League party took 18%. Since then, the League has gathered even more support. Its leader, Matteo Salvini, may now be the most powerful person in Italy.

Salvini’s answer to the European Question

With a wave of migration from North Africa and the Middle East in recent years, Italy finds itself dealing with culture clashes and a scramble to find the money to house and feed the new arrivals.

But amid all the talk of the migrant crisis, what has gone largely unnoticed is that both Five Star and the League have some economic policies that are irrational at best, dangerous at worst. With the news cycle focused on cultural issues, we are wise to remember that Salvini, currently positioned as the champion of nativist Italy, has communist roots. His economic belief system has shifted with age, but this is no solace to EUR longs.

Key planks

The coalition government’s common ground includes overturning the Fornero Law, which increased retirement ages, and putting a universal basic income of €780 (C$1,193) per month on the table. However, the coalition does interestingly entertain the idea of a flat tax. All of these together would conspire to blow out Italy’s 2.3% budget deficit-to-GDP ratio.

Positive backdrop

Italy’s 1.4% GDP growth may be anemic, but it is above water, and high by Italian standards; the norm this century is +0.4%. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, at 52.7, has essentially been in nonstop expansion since the first quarter of 2015.1 Unemployment is down to a still-troubling 11.1%, but it was nearly 13% in 2014. Investors must ask: what odd fiscal and/or monetary policies will voters demand if conditions become recessionary?

Start with one such policy, which Brussels fears, that is haunting the bond market and EUR.

The specter of a parallel currency

A “New Lira,” side-by-side with the euro. The state will not come out and say it at the moment, but that’s what the proposal for “mini-BOTs” will mean. If Five Star and the League do go down this path, mini-BOTs would be short maturity debt instruments that can be used to state obligations. On the other side of the ledger, owners of the mini-BOTs could use them to pay taxes. This risk has been haunting the bond market and EUR since the idea entered the conversation in mid-May.

For this privilege 

Figure 1 highlights in green the few bonds that yield more than two-year Canadian sovereigns. Australia and the U.S. generally yield more across the board, but investors have to reach for seven-year bonds in Italy to exceed Ottawa’s 2020 maturities.

Figure 1: Sovereign Yields (Highlighted Green if > Canadian Two-Year Government Bond)

Figure 1_Sovereign Yields

December looms

The stated aim of the European Central Bank (ECB) is to “keep prices stable, thereby supporting economic growth and job creation.” But in the last decade, what mattered is its implicit mandate: keep Europe together. The combination of fuzzier European economic data and the potential for Italian mini-BOTs could cause a “dovish” surprise by the ECB’s Mario Draghi, who is set to end the central bank’s €30bn bond purchase program in December.  Perhaps the surprise is an extension of the bloc’s zero interest rate policy for another year or so. That could harm EUR bulls.

European banks not yet indicating Contagion

One way in which European systemic risks can be priced is via bank credit default swaps (CDS). Figure 2 shows current CDS levels along with the peak fear points of the last five years. Continue Reading…

Hedging in the Retirement Risk Zone

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Bull Vs Bear stock market conceptMy latest MoneySense blog reveals some of my personal strategies for dealing with the bear market: How I’m preparing for Retirement in a bear market.

There may be a few ideas for anyone who, like myself, is in the “Retirement Risk Zone.” That’s the five years prior to and five years following your projected retirement date. If it’s 65, the traditional age, then the Risk Zone is between age 60 and 70. Based on the Hub’s demographic user patterns, a lot of people are in that category (although we actually have lots of millennial and Gen X traffic too on both sides of the border).

Towards the end of the blog, I talk about portfolio hedging. I have to credit my fee-for-service financial advisor for most of these concepts. He didn’t want to be named for the MoneySense blog but he is listed in the Hub’s “Guidance” section elsewhere in this site.

It took me awhile to accept that hedging — that is, using options or selling short certain ETFs representing the major indices — is as much a risk reduction strategy as it is a “risky” strategy.

Hedging means trading off some upside for downside protection

The best way I can describe it is that you’re willing to give up some upside in return for protecting the downside. Continue Reading…

Beware the sales pitch of “downside protection”

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benfelix
Ben Felix

By Ben Felix, PWL Capital Inc.

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

I often hear the phrase protect your downside. It’s the sales pitch that a large part of the investment management industry thrives on, and it plays to the myopic loss aversion that most investors exhibit.

Myopic loss aversion is the tendency of investors to evaluate their portfolios frequently with greater sensitivity to losses than gains, causing them to act as if their time horizon is much shorter than it actually is.

Let’s look at the example of John, who wants to invest for his retirement 30 years from now. After happily watching his portfolio increase with steady returns for a few years, he panics when the market trends down slightly for a week. He knows he doesn’t plan to touch the money for a long time, but the thought of a decline, even over a relatively short period of time, makes him feel sick. He may even pull his money out of the market until things feel safe again.

Myopic loss aversion

An obvious path to safety would seem to be hiring a person or a company that knows how to protect your downside, and the investment industry has answered this calling. Continue Reading…