Tag Archives: inflation

Half of us fear rising interest rates will be negative for our finances

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Now that interest rates have finally appeared to bottom, consumers are starting to worry about the prospect of rising rates and their impact on their personal finances.

This is explored in my latest article, which is in Monday’s Financial Post (e-paper and online). You can access it by clicking on this self-explanatory highlighted headline: Only a quarter of Canadians have a  rainy day fund, but more than half worry about rising rates.

It describes a new Forum Research Inc. poll that shows more than half of Canadians (51%) fear rising rates will negatively impact their personal finances. The national poll of 1,350 voting-age adults was conducted after the Bank of Canada raised the prime interest rate from 0.75 to 1% on September 6th, which in turn followed an initial 0.25% hike in July.

After an amazing run of nine years of ultra-low interest rates, it’s clear consumers are starting to fret the party is over. Anyone with variable-rate mortgages might well be petrified that interest rates could again reach the high teens, as they did in the early 1980s. Little wonder that many homeowners are starting to “lock in” to fixed mortgages while rates are still relatively low.

Of course, as Credit Canada’s Laurie Campbell notes, for the longest time it’s paid to stay variable and flexible, whether with a variable-rate mortgage or a line of credit. It does cost a bit more to “lock in” to fixed mortgages, as Campbell notes, but the ability to sleep well at night in my opinion more than makes up for the difference.

While the poll asked specifically how consumers felt about the second hike, “they are worried more are coming,” Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff told me. 12% say the negative effect will be extreme. However, 17% believe rate hikes will have some positive aspects:  you’d expect debt-free seniors to welcome higher returns on GICs and fixed-income investments. Another 38% don’t think it will have an effect either way.

Lorne Bozinoff

A quarter have no emergency savings at all

Bozinoff is more concerned that 26% of respondents have no emergency savings, and 40% have a cushion of a month or less: 9% have less than a month and 11% just a one-month cushion.

Financial planners generally recommend three to six months as a hedge against job loss or other setbacks. A minority do: 14% have two to three months, 9% four to five months, and 13% six months to a year. Only 15% have a year or more and predictably, 56% of the latter group are 55 or older. Continue Reading…

6 ways to ensure you won’t outlive your money

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“Retirement: World’s longest coffee break.” —Author Unknown

Over the years you’ve taken plenty of advice, saved and invested diligently. Now you and your family are knocking on retirement’s door or, perhaps, in its midst.

The good news is the family members will likely live longer than before. The flip side is that more money may be required to fully fund retirement lifestyle.

Let’s assume that retirement spans from age 60 to 90, often longer. Many worry that the money won’t last and runs out during retirement.

Analyze life expectancy of the immediate family members for both spouses or partners. Specifically, review the current ages of grandparents, parents, uncles, aunts and cousins.

Some are petrified at the mere thought of such a prospect becoming reality. The question becomes what you can do to at least contain this situation.

I summarize six essential ideas designed to ballpark your lifestyle needs and help your retirement money last:

1. Family life expectancy

Analyze life expectancy of the immediate family members for both spouses or partners. Specifically, review the current ages of grandparents, parents, uncles, aunts and cousins. Get familiar with the ages attained by family members that have passed away. Pay attention to patterns of critical illness and longevity.

Today, it is commonplace for many to live well into their 80s. It is wise planning for a family to expect that at least one spouse could easily live past age 90. Another expectation is that family longevity continues to increase. Updating the retirement projection refreshes the family’s capital needs for the desired lifestyle.

2. Becoming too conservative
Continue Reading…

Can I afford to Retire?

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The following is the second excerpt from Create the Retirement You Really Want: And Retire Smarter, Richer and Happier

By Clay Gillespie

Special the Financial Independence Hub

It was a beautiful May morning when I next saw Rachel and Mike. Rachel was carrying a large gift-wrapped box.

“This is for you,” she said, smiling and handing the box to me.

“Thank you,” I said, pleasantly surprised. “Most of my clients wait until they see how their portfolio performs before expressing their appreciation.”

“Shall we take it back then?”

“No, no! I’ll keep it,” I said, smiling, as I began to slide off the ribbon and remove the wrapping.

I opened the lid, looked inside and grinned with pleasure. “Much appreciated,” I said, looking proudly at a genuine leather soccer ball with my daughter’s name custom-printed on the top panel. “Sarah’s going to love it!”

“We wanted to give you a memento of our first meeting,” Rachel said.

“How very appropriate. Well, I don’t have a soccer ball for you,” I said, putting the ball down. “But hopefully I have an equally useful gift.”

“One that will last a lifetime?” Rachel asked.

“Yes. You might say it’s a gift that keeps on giving,” I said, grinning and handing them each a file folder.

“Our retirement numbers?” Mike asked.

“Yes. These are your illustrations.”

“Will we need to eat cat food?” Mike asked with a smile.

“No.” I laughed. “My goal is to help you maximize your retirement income, not minimize it.”

“And we won’t outlive our money?” Mike asked, more serious now.

“You should have plenty left for your children, unless you live to be Methuselah’s age.”

“Methuselah lived to be 969 years old,” Rachel said. “So I think the odds of that happening to us are slim,” she said pointedly.

“Right. My mistake,” I admitted. “I’ve taken the liberty of including a life expectancy table in your retirement illustration, so you’ll know the odds.”

“The odds of us dying at a certain age? I’m not sure I’m ready to see that!” Mike said uneasily.

“Don’t be such a worrywart, Mike,” Rachel said, chiding him gently. “It’s not as if you’re going to see the exact date and time of your death.” Suddenly, she frowned and looked at me. “Are we?”

“No,” I said smiling. “The actuaries aren’t that good, at least not yet. The life expectancies I’ve included are estimates based on a number of factors including your current age, your diet, exercise frequency, stress, body fat, genetics and the quality of health care.We’ll get to those in a moment. What you’re about to see is a financial illustration. It’s designed to give you an initial picture of your retirement situation for planning purposes. But first, we need to review your finances together so we’re all on the same page. Agreed?”

“Agreed,” they said together.

“Good. Here’s a quick snapshot of your current finances. As we go through it, I want you to let me know if anything is amiss.”

This is what they saw:

“As you can see, your gross income is $170,000 per year, while your combined income after tax is approximately $125,000.” “We work hard for our income,” Rachel said defensively.

Continue Reading…

Do you believe in the Inflation Bogeyman?

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U.S. CPI vs. U.S. CPI ex-Food & Energy Year-over-Year Change from 1/31/2010 to 4/30/2017

By Kevin Flanagan, WisdomTree Investments

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

One of the lynchpins behind the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision-making process thus far in 2017 has apparently been the altered inflation landscape. The policy makers seem to be more comfortable that deflationary conditions have passed and that inflation will be “running close to the Committee’s 2 per cent longer-run objective.” Does that mean that fixed-income investors should be fearful of the inflation bogeyman rearing its ugly head anytime soon?

Calendar year 2017 did get off to a somewhat unexpected start on the inflation front. Indeed, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), perhaps the most widely followed gauge on price developments, revealed some visible upside during the winter months. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), overall CPI rose as high as +2.7%1 in February on a year-over-year basis, the strongest performance in five years.

In fact, as recently as July of last year, the figure came in as low as +0.8%2. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the price index for personal consumption expenditure (PCE) exhibited a similar pattern, coming in at a five-year high watermark of +2.1%3 and crossing the FOMC’s mentioned 2% threshold in the process.

Core inflation slowing

Interestingly, inflation has not exhibited any further upward momentum in the months that followed. To provide some perspective, the year-over-year gains for CPI and the PCE price index have since dropped back to +2.2%4 and +1.8%5, respectively, in the latest data available. Continue Reading…

Is Inflation making a comeback?

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By Kevin Flanagan, WisdomTree Investments

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

In a noticeable turn of events, one of the key talking points for the 2017 investment landscape has been the potential return of inflation. Indeed, only a little more than a year ago, a rather different take on this topic was dominating market discussion: deflation. However, since the results of the U.S. election became known, market participants began to shift their focus to what is being referred to as the “Trump Reflation Trade.”

Quite simply, the logic behind this “trade” is that fiscal stimulus will now take the baton from monetary policy and provide a newfound jolt to the economy, spurring potentially higher growth and elevated inflation readings, accordingly. For the most part, the financial markets appeared to buy into this line of reasoning, as the S&P 500 has risen +10% since Election Day while the U.S. Treasury (UST) 10-Year yield has climbed by about 65 basis points (bps) during this same time frame. Interestingly, broader commodity prices, as measured by the Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Index,  rose in the two-month period following the election to as high as +6.3% but have since reversed course and were basically unchanged as of this writing.

The most widely followed inflation gauge in the U.S. is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This monthly report is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), with both the overall and core (excluding food and energy) readings receiving the most attention.

Inflation rise of 2.7% highest in 5 years

The February CPI report revealed that overall inflation rose at a year-over-year rate of +2.7%, the highest in almost five years. Continue Reading…