Tag Archives: interest rates

Owning today’s Long-Term bonds is crazy

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By Michael J. Wiener

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Today’s long-term bonds pay such low interest rates that it makes no sense to own them.  There is virtually no upside, and rising interest rates loom on the downside.  Warren Buffett called this “return-free risk.”  He was right.  Here I explain the problem and address objections.

As I write this, 10-year Canadian government bonds pay 0.623% interest.  If you invest $10,000, you’ll get a total of only $623 in interest over the decade, and then you’ll get your $10,000 back.  This is crazy.  Even if inflation stays at just 2%, you’ll lose $1237 in purchasing power.

Even worse are 30-year Canadian government bonds that pay 1.224% as I write this [late in October 2020.]  Your $10,000 would get a total of $3672 in interest over 3 decades.  This is a pitiful amount of interest over a full generation.  At 2% inflation, you’ll lose $1738 in purchasing power.  Even a portfolio that only beats inflation by 2% per year would gain $8113 in purchasing power over 30 years.

All investments have risk, but there has to be some potential upside to justify the risk.  Where is the upside for long-term bonds?  The only upside comes if we have sustained deflation.  It’s crazy to risk so much just in case the prices of goods and services drop steadily for the next decade or three.

Some investors mistakenly think they can always sell bonds and collect accrued interest.  That’s not how it works.  With a 30-year bond, the government is promising to pay you the tiny interest payments and give you back your principal after 3 decades.  If you want out, you have to sell your bond to someone else who will accept these terms.  You don’t get accrued interest; you get whatever another investor is willing to pay.  Counting on selling a bond is hoping for a greater fool to bail you out.  If future investors demand higher interest rates on their bonds, your bond will sell at a significant capital loss.

If the interest rate on 30-year bonds goes up over time, that’s actually bad for current bond owners, because they have to live with their lower rate instead of receiving the new rate.  If 30-year bond interest rates go up by 1%, you immediately lose 30 years of 1% interest; you can’t just sell to avoid the loss because other investors wouldn’t happily take these losses for you.

Let’s go through some objections to this argument against owning today’s long-term bonds:

1.) Stocks are risky

It’s true that stocks are risky, but I’m not suggesting that investors replace long-term bonds with stocks.  Short-term bonds and high-interest saving accounts are safer alternatives.  A decision to avoid long-term bonds doesn’t have to include a change in your asset allocation between stocks and bonds.  For anyone willing to look beyond Canada’s big banks, it’s not hard to find high-interest savings accounts paying at least 1.5% and offering CDIC protection on deposits.  If long-term bond interest rates ever return to historical norms, it’s easy to move cash from a savings account back into bonds.  So, you don’t have to live with a measly 1.5% forever.

2.) Investors need to diversify

The benefit from diversifying comes from owning assets with similar expected returns that aren’t fully correlated.  However, the expected returns of today’s bonds are dismal.  We don’t really own bonds for diversification these days.  The real reason we own bonds is to blunt the risk of stocks.  It doesn’t make sense to try to reduce portfolio risk by buying risky long-term bonds.  Flushing away part of your portfolio with long-term bonds isn’t a reasonable form of diversification.  Short-term bonds and high-interest savings accounts do a fine job of reducing portfolio volatility without adding significant interest rate risk.

3.) Long-Term bonds have higher interest rates than short-term bonds

Historically, long-term bonds rates usually have been higher than short-term rates.  Today, however, high-interest savings accounts pay more interest than long-term government bonds.  But that’s not the only consideration.  Interest rates will change over the next 30 years.  If you own short-term bonds, your returns will change too.  However, if you buy 30-year bonds, your interest rate won’t change for three decades.  If interest rates rise, new short-term bond rates will be higher than your old 30-year rate.  Continue Reading…

Lower for Longer interest rates and Implications for Public Policy

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By John De Goey, CFP, CIM

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

In the second half of August, the two countries that share the bulk of the North American continent independently signaled that they are shifting their economic courses and pursuing a public policy initiative which had been considered somewhat heretical until very recently.  We are now left to reflect upon what it all means and how it will play out in the coming months.

Let’s re-cap.  In mid-August, Bill Morneau resigned as Canada’s Minister of Finance and was swiftly replaced by the Prime Minister’s main political fixer, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland.  Concurrently, we learned that Trudeau had taken to seeking advice from Mark Carney.  Carney has been the Governor of both the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, a senior consultant at Goldman Sachs, a Chairman of the Financial Stability Board and currently acts as the United Nations special envoy for climate action and finance.

He’s smart, connected and has shown repeatedly that he concurs with the thesis in Minister Freeland’s 2012 bestseller Plutocrats, which spells out just how rapidly income inequality has spread.  There is now a wide consensus that first-world monetary policy has contributed greatly to this phenomenon.  See my thoughts on the Cantillon Effect in a previous blog for more on why that is.  For better or worse, Freeland, Trudeau and to some extent, even Carney are looking to craft a made in Canada policy response.  Their perception is that the COVID-induced slowdown coupled with shockingly low rates has created a once in a lifetime opportunity to be bold.

To that end, the Prime Minister prorogued the federal legislature and, along with his newly-minted Minister of Finance, indicated that when the House resumed sitting, the Throne Speech would put major emphasis on the economy transitioning to a modern economy that is far greener than anything that has ever been seen in Canada previously.  Parenthetically, this transition would also take pains to address growing inequality.  Remember that the Trudeau government was first elected in 2015 with a mandate to look out for and champion ‘people in the middle class and those working hard to join it’.

Continue Reading…

Good news for Savers: We’re in a high-interest savings war!

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That meant savvy savers had to look elsewhere to stash their cash and keep ahead of inflation.

LBC Digital

The first shot was fired several months ago when the relatively unknown LBC Digital (an offshoot of Laurentian Bank) started promoting its high interest savings account that pays 3.3 per cent with no minimum balance required and no monthly fees.

That kind of interest rate was sure to draw wide-spread attention, but the sign-up process and user experience has been clunky at best. LBC also must have been getting some high-roller deposits because they recently changed to a tiered structure that pays 3.3 per cent on balances up to $500,000 and 1.25 per cent on balances above that threshold.

Time will tell whether the 3.3 per cent interest rate is here to stay. Colour me skeptical.

Shades of EQ Bank’s launch four years ago, I thought. Back in 2016, EQ Bank burst on the scene offering a chequing / savings account hybrid that paid a whopping 3 per cent interest. Deposits flooded in, and EQ Bank had to temporarily halt new account sign ups until it sorted out its back-end procedures. The 3 per cent rate didn’t last long, settling in at a still competitive 2.3 per cent everyday interest. Continue Reading…

Here’s what Buyers and Sellers can expect in the 2020 Housing Market

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By Penelope Graham, Zoocasa

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

The long-awaited new decade is now upon us: but what does 2020 hold for Canada’s real estate market? According to a number of forecasts the year is shaping up to favour sellers, with a return to the type of conditions that prop up home prices.

However, with deeply discounted mortgage rates expected to linger throughout the year, not to mention a potential softening of the controversial stress test, home buyers could see a surge in their purchasing power in the near term. Let’s take a look at what could potentially be in the cards for the housing market as 2020 unfolds.

Slower sales in the rear view

While home sales took a tumble over the course of 2017 – 2018, last year saw sustained improvements in buyer activity in most of Canada’s urban centres. Much of this was due to buyers absorbing the shock of the federal mortgage stress test, which was introduced in January 2018, as well as a number of provincial taxes in Ontario and BC designed to reel in the demand end of the market.

While the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) notes that growth is uneven across the nation – the Prairie and Maritime markets continue to struggle with sales volume – transactions surged in Ontario and British Columbia in the second half of the year, which helped drive overall national growth.

This year, CREA expects the upward trend to continue, calling for 530,000 sales in 2020, up 8.9%. The national average home price will also tick higher by 2.3$ to $531,000.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Canada’s largest provider of default mortgage insurance, and which acts as an overseer of the mortgage industry, has also called for home sales and prices to “fully recover” this year from their 2018 slump.

“Overall, economic and demographic conditions will remain supportive of housing activity over the forecast horizon, halting the declines in starts, sales, and average home prices that followed the highs of 2016 – 2017,” it states in its most recent Housing Market Outlook.

It forecasts home transactions to total between 480,600 – 497,700 sales in 2020, up 6%, with the average price between $506,200 – $531,000, up 5.6 – 6.7% from 2019.

While sales are on the rise, however, the same can’t be said for new MLS listings in Canada – and the resulting supply-and-demand gap could re-stoke unsustainable price growth. According to CREA, the national housing market was in sellers’ market territory in November with a sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) of 66.3%. New supply declined 2.7% year over year, while the total months of inventory – the length of time it would take to completely sell off all available homes for sale – currently sits at 4.7 months, its lowest level since 2007.

This will be most acute in the hottest markets such as the Greater Toronto Area, which boasted a sizzling SNLR of 81% at the end of the year, indicating just under 20% of newly listed homes remained on the market.

That’s a growing concern for Toronto real estate prices; according to the Toronto Real Estate Board, as their Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer stated, “Strong population growth in the GTA coupled with declining negotiated mortgage rates resulted in sales accounting for a greater share of listings in November and throughout the second half of 2019. Increased competition between buyers has resulted in an acceleration in price growth. Expect the rate of price growth to increase further if we see no relief on the listings supply front.”

Ontario and BC to Lead the Pack

As was the trend throughout 2019, the Ontario and BC housing markets will see the strongest growth, says CMHC; BC, in particular, is anticipated to experience a dramatic 20 – 22.6% surge as the region recovers from recently implemented foreign buyer and non-resident speculation taxes, totaling between 74,600 – 84,400 transactions. Home prices will rise between 2.8  – 3.6% to an average of $675,000 – $749,500. Continue Reading…

Bank of Canada ends 2019 with a Rate Hold. What does this Mean for borrowers in 2020?

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Bank of Canada

By Penelope Graham, Zoocasa

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

The final rate announcement from Canada’s central bank has come and gone: and it appears that the cost of mortgages and other forms of variable-rate borrowing are to remain stable well into next year.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to leave its trend-setting Overnight Lending Rate (which consumer lenders use to set the pricing of their variable mortgages and lines of credit) at 1.75% on December 4th.  The rate has held status quo since October 2018, and makes the BoC somewhat of an outlier when it comes to monetary policy; many central banks around the world, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, cut interest rates this year to counter growing U.S.-China trade tensions, as well as the growing threat of recession.

A positive take on the Canadian economy

However, the BoC has maintained all year that while global economic instability remains a key risk, it feels confident enough in both the international and domestic economies to avoid adding stimulus. Of course, tweaking interest rates is a key tool the BoC has at its disposal in times of economic need; by keeping the cost of borrowing lower, it encourages continued consumer spending and helps avoid a credit crunch.

While a number of economists and analysts anticipated at least one downward rate cut in 2019, that never materialized. In its December announcement, the central bank stated, “There is nascent evidence that the global economy is stabilizing, with growth still expected to edge higher over the next couple of years.” It also adds that while the risk remains, a potential recession has become less likely, and that there is reason for optimism as Canada’s economy is stabilizing.

The December report outlines that end-of-year growth has progressed largely in line with what was forecasted in October, with consumer spending rising 1.3%, as well as upticks in business investment and wage growth. As well, the BoC’s most important metric, core inflation, stayed near its 2% target, and is expected to remain in that range over the next two years. As long as that remains the case, it’s unlikely the BoC will be prompted to cut or hike rates in the near future.

Lower rates to spur Housing demand in the New Year

With little chance of rate movement in the short term, what does that spell for Canada’s housing market? In what is somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy, the BoC included strengthening real estate activity as one of the main contributors to economic growth, further supporting its platform to keep rates at their current historical lows. Lenders have been able to keep their variable-rate offerings deeply discounted, while fixed mortgage rates have been kept down by especially low yields in the bond market.

That’s led to a boom in cheaper credit and mortgages over the course of 2019, which has fueled growing home-buyer demand; while the federal mortgage stress test did help tamp down some borrowing activity by requiring applicants to qualify for higher rates, the shock impact of the measure has largely been absorbed.

Housing Agency calls for home sales and prices to rise through 2021

That’s a trend that will continue over the next 12 to 24 months, according to several analysts. For example, Capital Economics has forecasted national house price growth will rise at least 6% in 2020 due to low mortgage rates, as well as a growing gap between housing supply and demand. Continue Reading…