Tag Archives: interest rates

The changing perceptions of Normal

Posted By |
Image courtesty Outcome/Creative Commons

By Noah Solomon

Special to Financial Independence Hub

In response to rapidly accelerating inflation, central banks began raising rates aggressively at the beginning of 2022. Ever since, wild swings in bond markets have had a tremendous impact on virtually every single asset class.

This month, I examine the recent spike in rates from a historical perspective. Importantly, I will discuss the likely range of interest rates over the foreseeable future and the associated implications for financial markets.

When the Fed and other central banks were confronted with financial disaster in late 2008, they slashed interest rates to zero and deployed additional stimulative measures to ward off what many thought could be another Great Depression. Global rates then remained at levels that were both well below historical averages and the rate of inflation for the next 13 years.

In 2008, the runaway inflation of the 1980s and the painful medicine of record high rates that were required to subdue it were still relatively fresh in people’s minds. At that time, had you asked anyone what would be the most likely result of keeping rates near zero for over a decade, their most likely response would have been runaway inflation. And yet, inflation remained strangely subdued. According to most experts, this unexpected result is largely attributable to a relatively benign geopolitical climate and a related push toward global outsourcing.

This led to the notion of a “new normal” in which inflation was permanently expunged. Over the span of only 13 years, people went from fearing inflation to believing that it was a relic of the past unworthy of serious consideration. This false sense of comfort caused central banks and investors alike to be caught off guard in late 2021 when they realized that inflation had not been permanently vanquished but was merely hibernating.

These sentiments were evident in bond markets. After rates were slashed to zero during the global financial crisis, investors were skeptical that they would remain there for long before stoking inflation. Longer-term rates remained well above their short-term counterparts, with the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries retaining an average 1.9% premium above the Fed Funds rate from 2009 – 2020.

However, 13 years of ultra-low rates with no sign of inflation allayed such fears, with the yield spread crossing into negative territory late last year and reaching a low of -1.5% in May of 2023. Even the rapid acceleration in inflation in late 2021 failed to fully disavow investors of the notion that the era of low inflation had come to an end, with current 10-year rates falling below their overnight counterparts.

10 U.S. Treasury Yield Minus Fed Funds Rate (1995 – Present)

 

Equity markets danced to the same tune as their bond counterparts. When central banks cut interest rates to zero during the global financial crisis, investors were dubious that inflation would not soon rear its ugly head. Multiples remained relatively normal, with the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 Index averaging 16.4 for the five years beginning in 2009.

Over the ensuing several years, investors became complacent that the world would never again experience inflation issues, with the S&P 500’s P/E ratio climbing as high as 30 by early 2021. Multiples have since remained somewhat elevated by historical standards, indicating that markets have not fully embraced the fact that inflation may not be as well-behaved as what they are used to.

S&P 500 P/E Ratio (1995 – Present)

 

The Rising Tide of Declining Rates: Not to be Underestimated

According to legendary investor Marty Zweig:

“In the stock market, as with horse racing, money makes the mare go. Monetary conditions exert an enormous influence on stock prices. Indeed, the monetary climate – primarily the trend in interest rates and Federal Reserve policy – is the dominant factor in determining the stock market’s major direction.”

The 2,000-basis point decline in interest rates from 1980 to 2020 not only turbocharged aggregate demand (and by extension corporate revenues), but also dramatically lowered companies’ cost of capital. In tandem, these two developments were nothing short of a miracle for corporate profits and asset prices. Continue Reading…

A fortified U.S. Treasury ETF for Canadians

Posted By |

Why Harvest ETFs chose to launch its own U.S. Treasury ETF that offers the security of U.S. Treasury Bonds and high monthly income

Image courtesy Harvest ETFs/Shutterstock

By Ambrose O’Callaghan

(Sponsor Content)

The early part of this decade saw the introduction of significant monetary interventions that rivalled the policies pursued by central banks following the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Policymakers were able to resuscitate markets in the face of a global pandemic. However, the end of the pandemic saw the beginning of a surge in inflation rates not seen in many decades.

Central banks responded to soaring inflation with the most aggressive interest rate tightening policy since the early 2000s. Policymakers are encouraged with the result of inflation coming down, but a highly leveraged consumer base has been squeezed by the upward revision in borrowing rates. Moreover, the higher interest rate environment has spurred stock market volatility. That has led to a shift investors’ focus, with investors focusing on capital preservation instead of capital appreciation.

Harvest ETFs’ investment management team believes that we are at or near the peak of the current interest rate tightening cycle. In this climate, the prudent investment strategy will factor in high interest rates while preparing for the eventual downward move that many experts and analysts are projecting for 2024.

That is why we launched the Harvest Premium Yield Treasury ETF (HPYT:TSX). This portfolio of ETFs provides exposure to longer-dated U.S. Treasury bonds that are secured by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. HPYT employs up to 100% covered call writing to generate a higher yield and maximize monthly cash flow.

Why should you consider exposure to U.S. Treasuries?

Canadian consumers might not be celebrating the rise of interest rates. However, the switch to higher rates could be good news for Canadian savers. Continue Reading…

Why would anyone own bonds now?

Posted By |

 

By Mark Seed, myownadvisor

Special to Financial Independence Hub 

“Many investors have been saying for years that rates can only go up from here, rates can only go one direction, rates will eventually go up. Will they?” – My Own Advisor, September 2021.

My, how things can and do change.

In today’s post, I look back at what I wrote in September 2021 to determine if I still feel that way for our portfolio.

Why would anyone own bonds now?

Why own bonds?

For years, decades, generations in fact, bonds have made sense for a diversified, balanced portfolio.

The main reason is this: bonds can reduce volatility due to their low or negative correlation with stocks. The more that investors learn about diversification, the more likely they are to add bonds to their portfolios.

That said, they don’t always make sense for everyone, all the time, always.

I’ll take a page from someone who was much smarter than I am on this subject:

Ben Graham on 100% stocks and cash

Ben Graham, on stocks, bonds and cash. Source: The Intelligent Investor.

Another key takeaway from this specific chapter of The Intelligent Investor is the 75/25 rule. This implies more conservative investors that don’t meet Ben Graham’s criteria above could consider splitting your portfolio between 75% stocks and 25% bonds. This specific split allows an investor to capture some upside by investing in mostly stocks while also protecting your investments with bonds.

Because stocks offer more potential upside, there is higher risk. Bonds offer more stability, so they come with lower returns than stocks in the long run.

As a DIY investor, this just makes so much sense since I’ve seen this playout in my/our own portfolio when it comes to our 15+ years of DIY investment returns. Our long-term returns exceed the returns I would have had with any balanced 60/40 stock/bond portfolio over the same period.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with a 60/40 balanced portfolio held over decades, of course.

From Russell Investments earlier this year:

“Fixed income has historically been considered the ballast in a portfolio, offering stability and diversification against equity market fluctuations. Over the last 40 years, a balanced portfolio of 60% Canadian equities and 40% Canadian bonds would have returned 8.5% annualized with standard deviation of 9.3%. While a portfolio consisting solely of fixed income would have had lower return with lower risk, a portfolio consisting solely of equities would have had only slightly higher return but substantially higher risk.”

Source: https://russellinvestments.com/ca/blog/the-60-40-portfolio

1/1983 – 12/2022 Canada Equities Canada Bonds Balanced Portfolio 
Annualized Return 8.8% 7.2%  8.5%
Annualized Volatility 14.4% 5.3%  9.3%

Pretty darn good from 60/40.

So, while I continue to believe the main role of bonds in your portfolio is essentially safety – not investment returns – we can see above that bonds when mixed with stocks can be enablers/stabilizers and deliver meaningful returns over long investment periods as well.

As Andrew Hallam, a Millionaire Teacher has so kindly put it over the years, including some moments on this site to me:

… when stocks fall hard, bonds act like parachutes for your portfolio. Bonds might not always rise when the equity markets drop. But broad bond market indexes don’t crash like stocks do …

Is that enough to own bonds in your portfolio?

Maybe.

Here are a few reasons to own bonds, in no particular order: Continue Reading…

Despite recession fears & inflation, DB pension health improving: Mercer

Posted By |

Things appear to be looking up for members of Defined Benefit [DB] pension plans in Canada, despite inflation and rising fears of a looming recession.

In the third quarter, Canadian defined benefit (DB) pension plans continued to improve, according to the Mercer Pension Health Pulse (MPHP), released on Monday.

The MPHP, which tracks the median solvency ratio of DB pension plans in Mercer’s pension database, finished the third quarter at 125%, up from 119% last quarter. At the beginning of the year, the MPHP was at 113%, as shown in the chart above left.

This strengthening appears somewhat counterintuitive, as pension fund asset returns were mostly negative in the quarter, Mercer said in a news release. Over the quarter, bond yields increased, which decreases DB liabilities.  This decrease, along with a fall in the estimated cost of buying annuities, “more than offset the effect of negative asset returns, leading to stronger overall funded positions.”

Plans that use leverage in the fixed-income component of their assets will not have seen this type of improvement, it added.

Of plans in its database, at the end of the third quarter 88% were estimated by Mercer to be in surplus positions on a solvency basis (vs. 85% at the end of Q2). About 5% are estimated to have solvency ratios between 90% and 100%, 2% have solvency ratios between 80% and 90%, and 5% are estimated to have solvency ratios less than 80%.

Ben Ukonga

“2023 so far has been good for DB pension plans’ financial positions,” said Ben Ukonga, Principal and leader of Mercer’s Wealth practice in Calgary [pictured on right],” “However, as we enter the fourth quarter, will the good news continue to the end of the year?”

The global economy is still on shaky grounds, Mercer says.  “A recession is not completely off the table, despite continued low unemployment rates. Inflation remains high, potentially back on the rise, and outside central banks’ target ranges.”

Geopolitical tensions also remain high, reducing global trade and trust and fragmenting global supply chains – which further reduces global trade. And the war in Ukraine “shows no sign of ending – adding economic uncertainty atop a geo-political and humanitarian crisis.”

Mercer also questions whether recent labour disruptions at U.S. auto manufacturers will be resolved quickly, with Canadian workers expecting large wage increases, leading to further inflationary pressures.

Interest rates may stay at high levels

Mercer also worries that central banks globally may continue to keep benchmark interest rates at elevated levels.

 “Given the delayed effect of the impact of interest rate changes on economies, care will be needed by central banks to ensure their adjustments (and quantitative tightening) do not tip the global economy into a deep recession, as the full effects of these actions will not be known immediately. As many market observers now believe, the amount of quantitative easing during the COVID-19 pandemic was more than was needed.”

Most Canadian DB pensions are in favourable financial positions, with many plans in surplus positions, the release says: “Sponsors who filed 2022 year-end valuations will have locked in their contribution requirements for the next few years, with many being in contribution holiday territory (for the first time in a long time).”

That said, it added, DB plan sponsors should not be complacent: “Markets can be volatile, and given that plans are in surplus positions, now more than ever is the time for action, such as de-risking, pension risk transfers, etc. These actions can now be done at little or no cost to the sponsor.”

Mercer also said DB plan sponsors should “remain cognizant of the passing of Bill C-228, which grants pension plan deficits super priority over other secured creditors during bankruptcy and insolvency proceedings.”   Continue Reading…

Were you nervous before you Retired?

Posted By |

By Fritz Gilbert, TheRetirementManifesto

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

“Were you nervous before you retired?”

I was recently asked that question, and it brought back a flood of memories from my “near-retirement” days.

I suspect most of us were nervous before we retired, but it’s not something we talk about.  I believe there’s value in sharing the psychological journey in those final days before retirement.  For folks nearing retirement, it’s reassuring to know they’re not alone.

Recently I had the opportunity to talk about it with a reader who is on the cusp of retirement. We had a wide-ranging discussion and the conversation became the trigger for today’s post.  I suspect many of the questions he asked are also on the minds of other readers who are approaching retirement.

This one’s for you, Mike.  Thanks for letting me share our discussion with the readers of this blog.  I trust they’ll all benefit from our discussion…

 

Were you nervous before you Retired?

That’s one of the questions a reader, Mike, asked me on a recent phone call.  Mike’s a month away from retirement and reached out to me a few weeks ago.  I typically decline reader requests for phone calls (unfortunately, a downside of writing a blog with a large following).  If I said yes to every request, I’d be spending far too much of my time helping folks on a one-on-one basis, time that could otherwise be spent writing and reaching thousands of people with the same effort. It’s a “scalability” thing, and I trust you understand.

However…there was something about Mike.

His initial email hit a chord with me.  Here’s what he said:

Good morning Fritz,

Have heard you on several podcasts and just finished your latest discussion with Jason Parker.  I will be retiring in January and your point about helping others hit a cord.  I would love the opportunity to speak with you about your blog.  I’m currently a financial advisor and feel there is a huge need for financial literacy for just about everyone.  As a former teacher, my passion is teaching/sharing.  Would like to understand better how you got started with your blog, what are some of the watch outs, and any other insights you could provide.

Thanks for your consideration and congratulations on living your best life!

What caught my attention?  The fact that he didn’t ask a single financial question and was focused on helping others. He had some ideas about teaching/sharing and he was considering starting a blog.  I appreciate readers applying the lessons I’m sharing in their lives and searching for Purpose in retirement.  I also had a bit more free time than I usually do, so I agreed to a phone call.

Following are some of the highlights of our discussion, in no particular order.  I trust you’ll find them of interest.

how do I retire

Questions From A Soon To Be Retiree

Should I start a Blog In Retirement?

My first reaction to any question that says “Should I start…” is to say yes.  It’s critical, especially in early retirement, to foster your creative curiosity and try anything that interests you.  Many won’t “stick,” but you’ll likely find a few that do.  Once you’ve found one or two, you’re on your way to a great retirement.

Mike has a passion for teaching and is exploring various avenues to reach others.  I strongly encourage anyone who has an interest in starting a blog to give it a try.  7 years ago, I started this blog on a whim.  I’m 100% self-taught and technically inept.  It’s easy to start a blog these days, with Bluehost and WordPress both designed for folks who have never built a website.  Starting this blog is one of the best things I’ve ever done and has become a Purpose of mine in retirement. I hope it works out as well for others who are considering it.

That said, it’s important to consider your motives.  If you’re doing it to make money, I suspect you’ll fail.  For 3 years, I wrote every week without making a dime and only started adding those annoying ads when I retired.  I get some complaints about them but believe I shouldn’t have to incur costs when there’s an option of generating some revenue for my “work.” As blogs grow, the costs increase (Mailchimp costs me $220/month based on my ~13k subscribers), and I felt it was time to at least cover my costs.  Making money has never been my motive, and it shouldn’t be yours.  Even now, after 7 years, the income from this blog basically pays my health insurance.  Nice to have, but not enough to change our life. Unless you’re in the 0.1%, you won’t get rich writing a blog. Continue Reading…