Tag Archives: interest rates

Canadians’ Debt grew to all-time high in second quarter: TransUnion

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Source: TransUnion Canada consumer credit database.

The double whammy of Inflation and rising interest rates are starting to be reflected in higher debt levels for Canadians, according to data released by TransUnion on Tuesday.

The  Q2 2022 Credit Industry Insights Report reveals that Canadians are vulnerable to payment shock as a result of high interest rates and inflation challenges: “While there have still been gains in GDP growth and low unemployment, they are being offset by higher interest rates and cost of living. This lead to higher credit balances and increased costs of mortgages and loans.”

The report shows total debt grew to an all-time high at $2.24 trillion, up 9.2% year-over-year (YoY) and up 16.4% from pre-pandemic levels observed at the end of 2019. The number of consumers with a credit balance has increased by 2.1% YoY to 27.6 million and is up 2.5% from pre-pandemic levels (Q4 2019).

You can find the full press release here.

Among the highlights:

  • Household finances were worse than planned for 41% of consumers, with 48% reporting they had cut back on discretionary spending. A startling 26% of consumers expect to be unable to repay their bills and loans.
  • Total debt grew to an all-time high at $2.24 trillion, up 9.2% from the same time in 2021 and up 16.4% from pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2019.
  • Consumer delinquency on personal loans has returned to pre-pandemic levels, up 19 base points (bps) YoY to 0.93%. Credit card delinquency is also up six bps from the prior year same quarter.
  • Increased balance growth was observed across all risk tiers, with super prime consumers continuing to build overall outstanding balances (+5.1% YoY).

In the release, TransUnion director of financial services research and consulting Matt Fabian says: “With the combination of higher cost of living and higher spend driving up credit balances, along with the recent surge in mortgages and auto loans, many Canadian consumers are under pressure from higher debt service obligations … We’ve seen an increase in miminum payment amounts of up to 10% in the first half of 2022, depending on the combination of products consumers hold, along with a slight deterioration in payment behaviours.”

As shown in the chart below, all major credit products saw an increase in average balance per borrower, which TransUnion says indicates the consumer need to leverage credit.

Fabian added that “During the pandemic we saw a decline in credit participation among below prime consumers, so this marks a re-engagement of this segment as potentially the effects of inflation and interest rates have driven demand, while lenders have increased their risk appetite in this space.”

The report shows that overall, consumer-level delinquencies (borrowers more than 90 days past due on any account) increased by four basis points (bps) over the prior year same quarter, but still remain below pre-pandemic levels. “Consumer delinquency on personal loans has returned to pre-pandemic levels, up 19 bps YoY, to 0.93%.” Credit card delinquency (90 days or more past due) is higher by six bps from the prior year same quarter.

TransUnion says the increase in consumer delinquencies is partially explained by accelerated lender origination activity, especially in the below-prime space: “The YoY rises in delinquencies are generally small and not a major concern, given the increased credit activity observed post pandemic. As credit activity recovers and grows further, consumer credit performance is expected to return to near pre-pandemic levels.”

Fed Pivot turned into a Divot

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By Dale Roberts, cutthecrapinvesting

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

It was a more than interesting week. Not much mattered until Jerome Powell (the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair) delivered comments on Friday. He came clean. Or at least he helped to reverse the delusion created by stock market enthusiasts that the Fed would ‘pivot’ and reverse course on the market-unfriendly series of rate hikes. Rates are going higher and they will stay higher. There will be some pain for consumers and business. Inflation must be crushed. They will do what it takes. The Fed pivot turned into a divot. The markets were not happy with the reality check.

In a Seeking Alpha article published just days before the Powell presser, Michael J Kramer of Cott Capital Management offered …

The futures, bond, and currency markets are already telling the world that there is no dovish pivot, and quite frankly, there probably never was a dovish pivot. The only market out there that hasn’t gotten the message appears to be the equity market.

If Powell can deliver a message that even a golden retriever (I own two goldens) can understand, then the equity markets’ day of reckoning will arrive in short order.

Also from Michael …

The futures knew it, bonds knew it, and the dollar knew it. Once again, the only market living on an alternate planet was equities …

Powell finally delivered a direct message

In his Jackson Hole speech, in the opening paragraph, he made it clear that his remarks would be shorter and the message would be more direct. That it was.

Very simply, rates still have further to rise, and once there, they will stay there for some time. In the following paragraphs, I have borrowed from Michael and others, I will avoid quotes for readability. My own commentary is in the mix.

Powell offered that reaching an estimate of the longer-run neutral rate is not a place to pause or stop. He said the June FOMC projections suggest rates would rise to just below 4% through the end of 2023 and that history warned against loosening policy too soon.

It’s evident that the Fed is aware of the mistakes made in the 1970s and 1980s with the stop-and-go monetary policy approach that led to even higher rates, and the Fed appears determined not to repeat those mistakes. There can be no 70’s show rerun.

Fed Chair Jay Powell said:

Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.

Powell noted that fighting inflation will take a sustained period of below-trend growth and a softening labor market, which could bring pain to households, and are the costs of reducing inflation. In the third paragraph of his speech, it’s right there. The Fed is willing to sacrifice growth and face rising unemployment to bring inflation down. He is telling the market there will be no “pivot” anytime soon.

Inflation is driving the bus

The Fed chair said central banks need to move quickly, warning historical episodes of inflation have shown that delayed reactions from central banks tend to come with steeper job losses.

“Our aim is to avoid that outcome by acting with resolve now,” Powell said.

The following image is not a live video, but an example of the headlines that ‘spooked’ the markets.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said the central bank’s job on lowering inflation is not done, suggesting that the Fed will continue to aggressively raise interest rates to cool the economy.

Get the inflation-killing job done

“We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done,” Powell said in remarks delivered at the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

“While the lower inflation readings for July are welcome, a single month’s improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down,” Powell said Friday.

The central bank has delivered four consecutive interest rate hikes over the last six months, moving in June and July to raise rates by 0.75%, the Fed’s largest moves since 1994. By raising borrowing costs, the Fed hopes to dampen demand by making home buying, business loans, and other types of credit more expensive. Continue Reading…

Which are better: Bonds or GICs?

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By Mark and Joe

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Even for seasoned investors, during times of market volatility, there is a tendency for investors to shift their mindset from capital growth to capital preservation.

So, for capital preservation, are bonds or GICs better? Which is better, when?

We’ll unpack that a bit in today’s post and offer our take on how we manage our portfolios, along with insights from clients too!

Bonds 101

What are bonds?

We’d like to think of bonds as an “IOU.”

Bonds are very similar in fact to GICs (Guaranteed Investment Certificates – more on that in a bit), in that governments or financial institutions issue them to raise funds from investors willing to lend in exchange for interest. However, a major difference between the two is that in most cases, bonds are publicly traded, meaning investors have liquidity even if their principal is locked for the bond’s tenure (length of time invested). As a result, bond investors are exposed to capital gains/losses as bond prices are affected by various factors such as equity market performance, the prevailing interest rate, foreign exchange rates, and other economic factors.

We can see this playing out right now. There is lots of talk about bond prices effectively going “nowhere” anytime soon with interest rates rising.

Interest rates reflect the cost of borrowing money. General lending and saving money practices amongst institutions and retail investors alike make the economy go round!

If the economy is growing quickly or if inflation is running hot, then our central bank (Bank of Canada) may increase interest rates. This triggers retail financial institutions to raise the rates at which they lend money, pushing up the cost of borrowing. When this happens, institutions may also raise their deposit rates, which makes the incentive to save money and keep savings intact more attractive for folks like us too.

Bond prices and interest rates as they relate to GICs

So, we have summarized that bond prices have an inverse relationship with interest rates.

Rates go up, bond prices come down.

Understanding and accepting interest rate risk is generally part of the game when you own bonds.

Bond pros and cons: 

1. Liquidity – bonds (bond ETFs in particular) offer investors liquidity as they are publicly traded, you can get your money back without paying hefty redemption penalties less any transaction costs typically.

2. Lending options – you’ll read below that GICs are only issued by financial institutions and government-backed entities (for a reason!), but bonds can be issued by even corporations. So, you have many options – a portfolio of bonds can include different issuers, with different maturities, with different ratings (i.e., quality of the bond issuer subject to default) which can help bond owners increase their returns.

3. Bonds have volatility – we believe bonds are not “as safe” as GICs since they are exposed to capital gains and losses; market factors mentioned above.

There is of course much more to any bond story but this primer is meant to draw a snappy comparison of which is better, when, below!

GICs 101

GICs, by nature of their very name, offer more stability given they are backed up by the Canadian government – so they can be considered a lower-risk, lower-reward fundraising tool.

Like bonds, interest rates offered by GICs can vary over different maturities, between institutions, but rates are generally higher over longer periods of investing time.

Guaranteed Investment Certificates (GICs) are considered lower-risk investments because the guaranteed part means you are guaranteed to get back the amount you invest — the principal — when your GIC matures.

Ideally then, you buy a GIC, hold it to maturity, and get your principal back AND interest as well. This is not unlike a saving account: except that your money is locked in to grow for a predetermined period of time. When the investment matures or reaches the end of that time period, you get your money back plus the agreed-upon amount of interest.

As long as you let your GIC mature, you are guaranteed that money. However, if you withdraw the funds earlier than the certificate contract allows, you will be penalized and may lose some or all of the interest.

Beyond the nuts and bolts of some GIC products, here are some considerations below.

GIC pros and cons:

1. Safety – while bonds (and bond ETFs in particular) offer investors potentially higher investment returns, because GICs are safer, they tend to deliver lower returns for the risks-taken; based on the guarantees provided. Your GIC is insured if you bought it at 1) any major Canadian bank – banks are members of the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation (CDIC),or 2) a credit union or Caisse Populaire. (This means you will get your money back if the financial institution where you bought your GIC closes down, defaults or the institution is unable to pay you when the GIC matures. Coverage depends on the value and type of GIC you hold.

Click here to see some very important term coverage information on CDIC!

Bonds vs. GICs – Which is Better?

Now, the drumroll … bonds vs. GICs – which is better?

We believe bonds can be great for many investors.

The key reasons to own bonds, in our opinion, is as follows: Continue Reading…

What Higher Rates mean for the Mortgage Stress Test

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By Sean Cooper, for Loans Canada

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

With higher rates arriving sooner than expected, Canadian’s finances are certainly being stress tested. In this article we’ll look at the history of the mortgage stress test and how higher rates are impacted it.

History of the Mortgage Stress Test

The mortgage stress test was introduced by the federal government several years back to stop homebuyers from overextending themselves. Previously, Canadians homebuyers only had to qualify based on the mortgage rate at the time of application. This was problematic for a couple of reasons.

First of all, mortgage rates could be higher when your mortgage came up for renewal. This could mean that you could face a much higher payment at renewal if mortgage rates were a lot higher then.

Most Canadians choose a five-year mortgage term. However, for those who chose a shorter mortgage term, that means the payment shock can be that much more if your mortgage comes up for renewal sooner.

The second reason it was a problem is that if someone chooses a variable rate mortgage, there’s really no limit to how high mortgage rates can go. You’re only asked to prove that you can qualify at the date that you applied. You’re not being asked to qualify again later on if and when rates rise.

What is the Mortgage Stress Test?

To avoid a similar meltdown as Americans experienced in the real estate market, the mortgage stress test came to be.

With the mortgage stress test, the borrower must prove that they can qualify at the greater of the stress test rate or your mortgage rate at application time plus 2%. The idea was to better protect homebuyers, but this came at a cost. Homebuyers saw their home purchasing power drop by 15% to 20% overnight. This is a direct result of having to qualify at a much higher rate.

Where we are Today

We’re in an interesting situation today. The mortgage stress test is still here. We’re seeing it put to good use, as interest rates are increasing faster than expected. Continue Reading…

Maintaining Balance in Volatile Markets

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Franklin Templeton/Getty Images

By Ian Riach, Portfolio Manager,

Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions

(Sponsor Content)

It’s been a volatile first half of the year for the world’s capital markets. In many countries, both equities and fixed income have declined, which has led to the second-worst performance for balanced portfolios in 30 years. Typically, bonds outperform stocks in down markets, but not this time. In fact, this has been the worst start to the year for fixed income in the past 40 years, thanks to higher inflation and the resultant rise in interest rates.

Supply-side inflation harder to tame

Central banks use rate hikes as a tool to curb demand for goods and services; but the current inflation is being driven more by supply-side issues stemming largely from the COVID-19 pandemic and exacerbated by the Russia/Ukraine war. Unfortunately, central banks have little influence over supply. All they can do is try to dampen demand with an aggressive interest-rate adjustment process, but they must be careful not to overshoot. Raising rates too quickly runs the risk of tipping weak economies over the edge into recession territory.

Canada’s most recent inflation imprint, released in June, showed an increase to 7.7% year-over-year. One negative consequence is that real incomes are being squeezed as inflation continues to accelerate.

Rates are rising quickly

Both the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Canada (BoC) have increased their overnight lending rates from essentially 0% prior to March of this year to 1.5%-plus in June. The Canadian futures market had priced another 75-basis point (bp) increase at BoC meeting in July, which ended up an even higher 100-bps with indications of more to come in September.

Rising interest rates are hurting several sectors of Canada’s economy, notably real estate — especially risky for the economy as housing and renovations have been leading Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the past few years. A significant correction in that sector could lead to a recession.

If there is any silver lining in the current situation, it may be in the Canadian dollar versus its U.S. counterpart. Short-term rates in Canada have moved higher than in the United States. This differential, along with the direction of oil prices, affects the value of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar. If the differential widens and stays higher in Canada, the loonie will likely benefit.

Recession risks are growing

The likelihood of recession is hotly debated within our investment team. Recession in North America is not our base case, but a soft landing will be very difficult. We are currently in a stagflationary environment and recession risks are increasing daily. Europe may already be in recession.

The stock market is a good leading economic indicator, and its recent decline indicates the risk of recession is rising. In addition, the yield curve is very flat, which typically portends an economic slowdown. These market signals have somewhat altered our team’s thinking. Given the current environment, we are reducing risk in our portfolios. In fact, we recently went slightly underweight equities.

Regionally, we are reducing the Europe weighting as that region is more exposed to the negative headwinds associated with war. We are slightly overweight the U.S. but acknowledge that valuations are subject to disappointment with declining earnings growth. We are overweight Canada, which continues to benefit from rising resource prices. Continue Reading…