By Noah Solomon

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

One of my favourite quotes is attributable to the late, great economist John Maynard Keynes. During a high-profile government hearing, when a critic accused him of being inconsistent, Keynes responded, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”

Being uncertain of what to do and/or scared of being wrong can cause investors to cling to their existing strategies and portfolios regardless of changes in the economic backdrop or market environment.

Another cause of investor inertia lies with the wealth management industry, which generally espouses a “do nothing and hope nothing happens” approach to investing whereby clients are encouraged to adopt a static, buy-and-hold approach and refrain from making any significant changes to their portfolios, regardless of changes in the investment environment.

The behavioral explanation behind the abdication of action in favor of passivity is nicely summarized by the following quote:

“You see, Dr. Stadler, people don’t want to think. And the deeper they get into trouble, the less they want to think. But by some sort of instinct, they feel that they ought to and it makes them feel guilty. So they’ll bless and follow anyone who gives them a justification for not thinking.”

– Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

Despite this tendency to cling to the status quo, the fact remains that refusing to change your portfolio in response to changing conditions has historically been one of the costliest mistakes in investing.

Sometimes It’s OK to Do Nothing (But it’s really hard to know when)

When asked what went through his mind when he listened to his own music, jazz legend Miles Davis responded, “I always listen for what I can leave out.” Davis meant that there are times when less is more: restraint can be more effective than action. As is the case with music, there are investment climates in which it’s best to do nothing.

The value of sound risk management varies depending on the market environment. The ability to manage risk has little value when conditions are favourable.  During a bull market that occurs against a backdrop of attractive valuations, low leverage, and a favourbale economic climate, risks are minimal and any move to take profits and reduce risk will likely make you worse off: just sit back and enjoy the proverbial ride. Conversely, there have been (and inevitably will be) times when risk management and flexibility can prevent a great deal of financial (not to mention emotional) pain.

So far so good: swing for the fences and make huge returns in favourable markets and apply the brakes to avoid losses when conditions turn hostile. But wait! To pull this off, you need to do the impossible and successfully predict exactly when markets will turn from favourable to hostile and vice-versa. In other words, you need to be consistently right … or do you?

It’s not just about Being Right. It’s also about What you Do when you’re Wrong

People put too much emphasis on being right. One explanation for this is that people get psychic income from being right:  taking profits on winning positions makes them feel good. Conversely, accepting a loss forces us to admit we were wrong, which can be psychologically challenging even for professional investors. The net result of these opposing reactions is that investors often strive to maximize their percentage of winning vs. losing positions. While this strategy seems like a good idea, it can lead to highly sub optimal results. Continue Reading…