Tag Archives: Retirement

Two types of overconfident investors

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I started investing in individual stocks shortly after the Great Financial Crisis ended in 2009. I picked an investing strategy that closely resembled the Dogs of the TSX, buying the 10 highest yielding Canadian dividend stocks. As you can imagine, the share prices of these companies got hammered during the stock market crash so I was able to scoop up shares in banks, telecos, pipelines, and REITs on the cheap.

Stocks came roaring back right away and my portfolio gained 35% by the end of 2009. Investing is easy, right?

It took me a while to figure out that my portfolio returns had less to do with my stock picking prowess and more to do with market conditions, luck, and the timing of new contributions. The rising tide lifted all ships, including my handful of Canadian dividend stocks.

I started comparing my returns to an appropriate benchmark to see if my judgement was adding any value over simply buying a broad market index fund. My portfolio outperformed for a few years until it didn’t. In 2015, I had enough and switched to an index investing strategy. Now I invest in Vanguard’s All Equity ETF (VEQT) across all of my accounts.

Related: Exactly How I Invest My Money

New investors who started trading stocks in the past 18 months have likely had a similar experience. Stocks crashed hard in March 2020, falling 30%+ from the previous month’s all-time highs. Since then markets have been on an absolute tear. The S&P 500 is up 91% from the March 2020 lows. The S&P/TSX 60 is up 70%.

That’s just country specific market indexes, mind you. Since March 2020 individual stocks like Facebook and Apple are up 137% and 155% respectively. Tesla is up 700%. Meme stock darlings AMC and GameStop are up 1,045% and 3,621% respectively.

No doubt, unless they’ve done something disastrous, new investors participating in this market have seen incredible returns so far.

This can lead to overconfidence – when people’s subjective confidence in their own ability is greater than their objective (actual) performance.

Overconfident Investors

Larry Swedroe says the biggest risk confronting most investors is staring at them in the mirror. This is the first type of overconfident investor.

Overconfidence causes investors to trade more. It helps reinforce a belief that any investment wins are due to skill while any failures are simply bad luck. According to Swedroe, individual investors tend to trade more after they experience high stock returns.

Overconfident investors also take on more uncompensated risk by holding fewer stock positions.

Furthermore, overconfident investors tend to rely on past performance to justify their holdings and expectations for future returns. But just because stocks have soared over the past 18 months doesn’t mean that performance will continue over the next 18 months.

In fact, you should adjust your expectations for future returns – especially for individual stocks that have increased by 100% or more. No stock, sector, region, or investing style stays in favour forever. If you tilt your portfolio to yesterday’s winners (US large cap growth stocks) there’s a good chance your portfolio will underperform over the next decade.

The second type of overconfident investor is one who makes active investing decisions based on a strong conviction about how future events will unfold.

Related: Changing Investment Strategies After A Market Crash

Think back to the start of the pandemic. As businesses shut down around the world it seemed obvious that global economies would suffer and fall quickly into a massive recession. The stock market crash reinforced that idea. Investors hate uncertainty, but this time it seemed a near certainty that stock markets would continue to fall and remain in a prolonged bear market.

Markets quickly turned around as central banks and governments doled out massive stimulus to keep their economies afloat and their citizens safe at home. Now it became ‘obvious’ that investing in sectors like groceries, cleaning supplies, online commerce, and video technology would produce strong results. Continue Reading…

Retired Money: Is “Core & Explore” too dangerous for retirees and near-retirees?

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column revisits the topic of Core & Explore. You can find the whole column by clicking on the highlighted headline here: Rethinking Core & Explore.

If the image on the left looks familiar, it’s because we used it last week to illustrate a republished blog on Explore by Michael J. Wiener, the blogger behind the popular Michael James on Money blog.

Go back to a couple of my Retired Money columns the last year and you’ll see I touch on the topic of speculation for retirees more than once, usually couched in the context of Core & Explore.

See for instance these pieces: Should Retirees Speculate? and How to Master Core & Explore.

“Core” is the prudent long-term strategy inherent in the MoneySense ETF All-Stars: low cost, diversified across geographies and asset class. Fully takes advantage of the “only free lunch:” that of broad diversification.

“Explore” on the other hand, is the polar opposite. The theory is that if you’ve taken care of 80 or 90% of your “Core” or Serious Money, you can go crazy with the other 10 or 20%, by “scratching the itch” of taking flyers on all those crazy things we’ve seen lately, like SPACs, cryptocurrencies etc., nicely surveyed by CFA Steve Lowrie in this recent blog: SPACS, NFTs and another Tech-inspired Silly Season.

Of course, as long as markets keep soaring, it’s hard not to love assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum, which may have tripled or quadrupled in a matter of months. Anyone who bought Tesla a year or two ago, or the ARK ETFs that were roughly 10% in Tesla and many comparable high flyers, was looking like an investing savant by the end of 2020, including Yours Truly. Continue Reading…

What the Olympics can tell us about managing Retirement portfolios

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Adrian Mastracci, “fiduciary” portfolio manager at Lycos Asset Management touches on applying Olympian wisdom to your retirement portfolio.

Let’s reflect on the Olympians who recently competed at Tokyo. They deserve praise for braving years of preparation, training, commitments and pandemics.

Striving and competing to be best in their chosen pursuits. Regardless of outcomes.

I especially appreciate long distance events like cycling, running, swimming and rowing. They demand a wealth of endurance and perseverance, much like retirement portfolios.

Athletes often have to reach down deeper to muster more bursts of adrenalin. Just when it seems there is little, if anything, left in the tanks.

My top takeaways

Investors can draw some parallels from hard working Olympians. Wisdom from the Olympiad is relevant and applicable, particularly to long-term investing.

I summarize my top takeaways. Successful athletes require:

• Much dreaming and sketching out of personal goals.

• Setting specific, well thought out strategies.

• Disciplined game plans that realize on their dreams.

• Patience for the roller coaster of setbacks and achievements. Periodic tweaking of their action plans.

• Time horizons to learn and master their quests.

Olympians make wonderful ambassadors for the investing profession. I encourage investors to take a few moments and apply Olympian wisdom to the precious nest egg.

Athletes make choices and sacrifices along the way in their quest for Olympic goals. Investors balance choices between spending for the moment and saving for the long haul.

Risk is an inevitable part of the Olympics, as it is in long term investing. Athletes try different training plans, much like investors try a variety of strategies.

Investors can improve their long term portfolios with these four pearls of wisdom:

  •  Pay attention to issues that you can control:  risks, diversification, asset mix and investment quality.
  •  Ensure that no investment can cause serious portfolio damage: losses are typically your biggest destroyers of wealth.

Buy and sell methodically over time – timing the markets is a low percentage strategy.

Always expect the unexpected – a positive mindset is best for making portfolio decisions. Stick to simpler game plans. Skip the fancy moves.

All the very best to the athletes. May they treasure the accomplishments and cherish the memories.

 

Adrian Mastracci, Discretionary Portfolio Manager, B.E.E., MBA started in the advisory profession in 1972. He is portfolio manager with Vancouver-based Lycos Asset Management Inc.  

 

 

 

Information provided is intended for educational purposes only. Copyright ©2021, Adrian Mastracci. All rights reserved.

Is everyone thinking of Retiring?

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By Dale Roberts, Cutthecrap investing

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

It’s just a coincidence perhaps. But much of my blog and reads for the week research landed on that retirement theme. Everyone’s thinking of retiring or writing about retirement. And why not? That is a big end goal for most of us; some form of financial freedom. This Sunday Reads post offers a nice slice of retirement thinking, from the emotional to the money side of things. And of course, there’s some non-retirement ‘stuff’ in here as well.

This is a very good topic and post on My Own Advisor – the emotional side of retirement. In fact on this site I wrote an article that offered that waiting for your spouse was the hardest part of retirement.

Mark offers up on that period after the retirement honeymoon stage (after year one) …

At this point in retirement, the honeymoon is over and potentially it isn’t as enjoyable for some as they may thought.

Maybe some folks go back to work – as part of FIWOOT [Financial Independence: Work on own Terms]. There are only so many rounds of golf you can play …

I’ve read feelings of disenchantment can set in for some. Even depression. That’s certainly something I wish to avoid. By maintaining some form of work into my routine (may or may not be daily), it is my hope that I can stay active (socially, physically, cognitively) to support my health in early retirement and far beyond.

We certainly have to take greater care when we design our life in retirement. We need to be busy and we have to have purpose – from my life experience and from many studies. Having the money to retire in some form is just the half of it, or less.

The waiting is the hardest part

In my post link above, I touched on my first taste of semi-retirement experienced alone. My wife still works and will likely work for a a few more years. I also took off down east to be with my daughter as I launched this blog …

That said, I got a good taste of that ‘waiting’. And as Tom Petty (RIP) sang ‘The Waiting Is The Hardest Part’. While I have a very generous amount of loner in me I was surprised at how uncomfortable a feeling that was – that working alone and being alone for many hours on end. I couldn’t wait for my daughter to finish work and head up to the cottage for dinner and a walk along the beach.

I may have got a taste of what if feels like to make that transition.

The Boomers Retire

On the retirement front Jonathan Chevreau takes a look at a new edition of The Boomers Retire. The book is co-authored by Alexandra Macqueen, a Certified Financial Planner who co-authored Pensionize Your Nest Egg with famed finance professor Moshe Milvesky. David Field is an investment advisor and financial planner and co-creator of the CPP Calculator.

From Jonathan’s post on MoneySense …

“That’s just responding to the reality of retirement income planning for the growing numbers of the ‘pensionless’,” Macqueen says. “If you don’t have lifetime income, you’ll need to create it or take your chances. Whatever you decide, here’s a collection of the relevant facts, principles and issues you’ll need to take into consideration when you’re making your plan.”

While the book is written for advisors and planners, it is also a good read for the rest of us offers Jon.

Of course Alexandra is no stranger to this site. A retirement and pension expert Alexandra penned one of the most read (and most important) posts on this site.

Must read: Defined benefit pension planning. Bad advice could cost you your retirement.

And the Maple Money Podcast is on point this week as well with how to design your retirement lifestyle, with Mike Drak. Mr. Drak is a co-author of retirement heaven or hell, which will you choose? Continue Reading…

Lack a DB pension? Pros and Cons of the Purpose Longevity Fund

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By Mark and Joe

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Hello readers of the Financial Independence Hub! We are the founders of CashflowsandPortfolios.com,  a free resource dedicated to helping DIY investors in getting started with their portfolio right up to planning efficient withdrawal strategies during retirement.

We are honoured to have been invited by Jon Chevreau to contribute a piece on a new income product for retirees: the Purpose Investments Longevity Fund.

If you are close to retiring or already a retiree, you’ve likely thought a lot about the following questions:

  1. Did I save enough for retirement?
  2. How will I generate sufficient income for my retirement?
  3. How long will my money last?

If you are lucky enough to have worked for a Government entity for 25-30 years, then you are probably not too worried about funding your retirement.  However, for the rest (most) of us, we need to save and invest on our own over the long-term. If that’s not enough, we then need to figure out ways to decumulate our savings as efficiently as possible.

For DIY investors, there is not much in the form of “forever” payments until death, except of course Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Old Age Security (OAS). We consider these as one of the three pillars of retirement income for Canadians.

Another common source of “forever” income that acts like a government defined benefit (DB) pension are annuities: which are guaranteed by insurance companies. With annuities, investors are trading their capital for a steady income stream, which is essentially a DB pension.

Why aren’t annuities more popular? For DIY investors, it’s likely because of the fact that you are giving up your capital for a yield (currently around 4-5%) that can be obtained by your own DIY portfolio (see below for an example).

So what if there was a product out there that would provide:

  1. Income for life
  2. A yield higher than annuities
  3. An option to “sell” the product to regain some of your invested capital if needed?

That’s the opportunity and challenge that Purpose Investments has taken on with the creation of their latest mutual fund: The Longevity Pension Fund.

There has been a lot of buzz about the Purpose Investments Longevity Pension Fund and for good reason:  it solves a number of big problems that retirees face.

What is the Longevity Pension Fund and what are the pros and cons of owning such a fund?

Pros and Cons of the Longevity Pension Fund

At a high level, the Longevity Pension Fund is a cross between a balanced index mutual fund (47% equities/38% fixed income/15% alternatives), an annuity, and a defined benefit pension. While the fund does offer income for investors, a solid yield, and an option to “sell” the product if needed, these potential benefits must be considered with some drawbacks. As always with financial products, the devil is in the details.

With the basics out of the way, what are the PROS and CONS of the fund?

PRO – Reduces longevity risk (i.e., outliving your money) by offering income for life, but without the guarantees

As mentioned, the Longevity Purpose Fund is a mutual fund that any investor will be able to buy. Once purchased, and the investor is 65 or older, the fund will pay a distribution for life (at least that is the plan). Purpose Investments has stated that the 6.15% yield may sound high, but to maintain that yield they would only need to achieve an annual return of 3.5% net, which is well below historical returns for a common 60/40 stock/bond balanced portfolio.

Combined with mortality credits (investors who die sooner than expected, leaving their money invested in the fund for other investors), Purpose Investments has stated that 6.15% is conservative and can possibly go higher in the future.

PRO – You can get some of your investment back

With annuities and defined benefit pensions, you don’t typically get your contributions back. With this Longevity Fund, if you sell the fund you will get your initial investment minus any income payments. For example, if you have invested $100k into the fund, and have been paid out $10k, then you get back $90k if you sell. At a yield of 6.15%, essentially you can get some capital back up to 16 years of being invested in the fund. After that point, co

nsider yourself invested for life.

PRO – The taxation of the distributions will be tax efficient

While the fund is available for all kinds of accounts — including tax-free savings accounts (TFSAs) and registered retirement income funds (RRIFs) — potentially the best home for this fund could be in a taxable account. That is because monthly income distributions in the first year are expected to be roughly half a return of capital (RoC) with the remainder from capital gains, dividends and interest. This means that in a taxable investment account, the distributions will be tax-efficient (much more so than a defined benefit pension payment).

PRO – No Binding Contract

A key feature of this Longevity Pension Fund is a script from the annuity playbook: mortality credits. Similar to an annuity, you are participating in a pool of credits: those that die. When you die, your estate gets your initial contribution minus the total amount of income payments. The investment gains generated by your investments over the years stay in the fund and are used to top up monthly payments for everyone else.

Unlike an annuity though, you can get out of the fund: it’s not a one-way binding contract.

From Purpose:

“Unlike many traditional annuities or other lifetime income products, the Longevity Pension Fund is not meant to feel like a binding contract. You can change your mind and access the lesser of your unpaid capital** (i.e., your invested capital less the distributions you’ve received) or current NAV. Your beneficiaries are entitled to the same amount if you pass away. Once your cumulative distributions surpass your invested capital, there will no longer be any redeemable value left. Please speak to your advisor or see the prospectus for further details.”

The fund is also designed similar to many pension plan funds or funds of funds:  a balanced mix of stocks, bonds and other investments that should* meet their income obligations to unitholders.

*Target income is just that. This fund does not offer an income guarantee.

CONS – The fund does not pass onto heirs

As mentioned above, the mortality credits are how this fund will sustain its yield into the future, which also means that the fund and its payout do not pass onto your spouse/heirs. For investors with a spouse/heirs, this is one of the largest drawbacks of the Longevity Pension Fund.

CONS – The distributions are not guaranteed

The monthly payments seem juicy right now but the Longevity Pension Fund is not like an annuity whereby income is guaranteed for life; the 6% or more income target is just that: a target. Continue Reading…