Tag Archives: risk

Thinking about taking a flyer on cannabis stocks or blockchain? Follow these guidelines.

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | September 28, 2018

By Scott Ronalds

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

“I’m thinking of taking some money out of my portfolio with you guys to buy some shares in a blockchain-related start-up. Am I crazy?”

We were asked a question along these lines recently, and I suspect we’ll hear it again, whether it’s blockchain, bitcoin, cannabis, space tourism or whatever new investment opportunity seems exciting. Our answer might surprise you.

No, you’re not crazy. We don’t necessarily think it’s a bad thing to invest a portion of your portfolio in an unconventional, illiquid, or even highly speculative investment. You can learn a lot from it. We do have a few caveats, however. Most importantly, you need to have a high tolerance for risk and should be mentally prepared to lose everything you invest, because you just might. Below are a few other things to consider.

Limit it to 5% of your portfolio

Five per cent isn’t a magic number, but curbing a risky investment to 5% or less of your total portfolio will limit the damage if things go south. True, it will also limit your potential upside, but it’s a prudent trade-off. You don’t want to put your retirement plans and future standard of living at risk by investing too much of your portfolio in an adventure.

Have a plan

This seems obvious, but we find it’s often overlooked. Let’s use bitcoin as an example. Say you invest in the cryptocurrency when its value is $16,000. What will you do if it falls to $8,000? Or if it rises to $24,000? Do you have a floor and ceiling in mind for how much you’d be willing to lose or gain before making a difficult decision with your investment? Bitcoin is a great example of the hyper volatility that comes with speculative investments. You need to be prepared for it, and you need to have a plan.

Consider how it will change the risk profile of your portfolio

If your target breakdown between stocks and bonds is 60/40 and you want to carve off 5% to invest in a start-up, for example, you should be taking the money from the stock portion of your portfolio so that you don’t inadvertently increase your overall level of risk. If you’re venturing into investments that are higher up the risk spectrum, you shouldn’t fund them by cashing in your safer stuff (e.g. cash and bonds).

Further, if you hit the jackpot on a speculative investment, it will comprise a larger portion of your portfolio, which means you should think about reducing the level of risk in the rest of your accounts to keep your overall balance between growth and safety in check. On the other hand, if your investment tanks, your overall portfolio may have less exposure to growth assets than your plan calls for. In this case, it would be appropriate to increase your exposure to stocks. After a bad experience with a high-risk investment, this can be hard to do.

Read the fine print on fees and redemption clauses

If it’s a product or offering that you’re considering, rather than an individual security, be sure to do your homework on fees. Continue Reading…

The straight dope on Marijuana investing

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | September 17, 2018

By Chris Arthur

(Sponsor Content)

Is all the buzz around marijuana investing deserved? How did the value of marijuana stocks get so high in the first place? Why are they currently on a bit of a low? And with valuations at a discount, is now a good time to get in on the action?

Clearly, there are big risks. But there are also big rewards for investors in this fast-growing new industry. After all, marijuana legalization is scheduled to take place very soon.

Anyway, it seems inevitable at this point. How can you add marijuana to your investment mix? With Canadian investors in mind, we took an in-depth look at these questions.

Legalization isn’t as simple as when the House of Commons votes to create a new marketplace. Many politicians are enthusiastic. However, they know that there are many other considerations and costs involved. For those interested in marijuana investing, it’s top of mind.

The marijuana marketplace has grown up fast, even before legalization

When is the absolute best time to invest in the fast-growing marijuana industry? Actually, that was probably more than a year ago. Canada’s Prime Minister campaigned on legalizing marijuana in the last election. The thinking was to disrupt the black market. At the same time, while they could create a windfall of tax revenue and they’d get a substantial cash infusion from a legalized marijuana industry.

In response to the enthusiasm, investors poured money into cannabis companies. Some of these quickly went from penny stocks to high-flying billion-dollar firms.

For instance, the market cap of the top five cannabis stocks alone grew by 400%. Canopy Growth Corp., the leader in Canada, has a market cap of over $5 billion. If you got in early enough, you saw a 261% return on your investment. Aurora Cannabis had a slightly smaller market cap. However, it posted a 1-year return of 353%. PharmaCan Capital’s stock was up 385%.

The whole reason we saw such startling triple-digit returns for marijuana stocks year? Deregulation. Sooner or later, it’s coming.

A bigger market than just Canada

Marijuana legalization creates a global opportunity. It is not confined to the Canadian marketplace. However, it is a also a unique situation. The usual big gorilla on the block, corporate America, is a no-show. Consider legalization in individual American states like Colorado and California. There, federal law still cuts American companies out of the competition.

That means, for once, Canadians can step over their southern cousins and become global leaders in a brand-new industry. This is green pasture territory. It is a dreamy prospect for investors looking for profit.

The marijuana industry includes over 85 companies with a combined market value of $30 billion. Some believe the global medicinal marijuana marketplace alone could be worth US$31.4 billion by 2021. According to Eight Capital, it could be worth $180 billion by 2025. Some think Canadians might be coming late to this market. Medical cannabis programs started here as early as 2001. If anything, we set the trends.

However, the big growth we have seen so far isn’t likely to continue forever. Investors looking into this industry need to manage their expectations.

Today, marijuana investing is about diversification. After all, there’s volatility. You’re betting on companies that must prove their worth by generating sales. What kind of sales? That’s the billion-dollar question.

Not every marijuana start-up has all the answers. So, what are paying customers really looking for? That is still up for debate.

Overview: Where the marijuana industry is today

There are different kinds of potential customers for marijuana. The first, smaller group is the smokers. But the second group includes people who consume cannabis in other ways. After all, customers can do it through food, beverages, supplements or other means. Also, medical marijuana is a big potential area of growth. Additionally, there are specialty products that cross over into the bigger food and beverage territory.

According to Evolve ETFs’ research, in 2015, there were just five countries where medical marijuana was legalized (or in the process of being legalized). By 2017, that shot up to 25 countries.

Canada is a leader in this sector. It legalized medical marijuana in 1999. The big breakthrough though came in 2015. There were new rules to allow value-added products. The Supreme Court said restricting legal access to only dried products was unconstitutional. This opened up the market with new product lines. That in turn transformed the medical marijuana landscape.

The number of adult Canadians who use recreational marijuana could be about 20 per cent of the population. How do we know this? The government is trying to get a better handle on the actual number. It’s tracking the THC-laced product that winds up in our sewers. Canadians spent $5.7 billion on marijuana for medical and non-medical purposes in 2017. Market studies estimate the value of the Canadian recreational marijuana market in 2018 to be about $7.9 billion.

Beverages will likely be big business for the marijuana industry. Energy drinks and health supplements of every variety will separate themselves from the pack by infusing them with marijuana extracts. Some companies are planning cannabinoid-infused beverages for launch in 2018. These products have huge potential for sales.

It could be an easy way for companies outside the marijuana industry to get a foot in the door in this growing industry. Alcohol giant, Constellations Brands, owner of Corona, purchased a 9.9% stake in Canopy Growth Corp (WEED.TSX).

Risks in marijuana investing

There are still many questions around the legalization process. Uncertainty is sure to prompt additional volatility. Continue Reading…

A snapshot of Canadian investors’ appetite for risk: Vanguard’s Canadian risk speedometers

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | November 6, 2017

Figure 1: Vanguard’s Canadian risk speedometers, September 30, 2017

By Todd Schlanger, Senior Investment Strategist, Vanguard Canada

(Sponsor Content)

As part of Financial Literacy Month in Canada, we are proud to announce the launch of Vanguard’s Canadian risk speedometers.

These speedometers were originally designed by my colleagues in the United States to provide a factual representation of how investor risk appetite is trending today, relative to the past.

In order to generate the speedometers, we calculated net cash as a percentage of total assets under management, (in this case, within the universe of Canadian mutual funds and ETFs) into high-risk and low-risk asset categories. We then looked at the relative cash flows into high- versus low-risk asset classes, relative to history.

The end result is a risk measure that can be tracked through time and displayed in a risk speedometer index, as shown in Figure 1 over the 1-, 3-, and 12-month periods ending September 30, 2017. When risk appetite is above its historical average — such as over the 12-month period — the needle is to the right of centre, indicating higher risk appetite. When the needle is to the left of centre, risk appetite is below average. In addition to the current risk appetite readings, we also display the prior 1-, 3-, and 12-month readings for comparison.

Notes: Vanguard’s risk speedometers measure the difference between net cash flows into higher-risk asset classes and lower-risk asset classes, in this case within the universe of Canadian mutual funds and ETFs. The lighter-shaded areas represent values that are within one standard deviation of the mean, which means they occur roughly 68.2% of the time (34.1% higher and 34.1% lower). The middle shades represent readings between one and two standard deviations from the mean, occurring 27.2% of the time (13.6% higher and 13.6% lower). The dark edges represent values more than two standard deviations from the mean, occurring the remaining 4.6% of the time (2.3% higher and 2.3% lower). Speedometer values for previous periods may change from what was initially reported as the current value in prior periods because of changes made in Morningstar, Inc., data, and to the updating of the five-year average.

Along with the risk speedometers, we will be providing underlying asset category details (the top winners and losers in each category) in terms of net cash flows and changes in assets under management that resulted in the current risk appetite readings, as shown in Figure 2 (for the same periods, ending September 30, 2017).

Figure 2: Highest net inflows and outflows Continue Reading…

Can I afford to Retire?

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | June 2, 2017

The following is the second excerpt from Create the Retirement You Really Want: And Retire Smarter, Richer and Happier

By Clay Gillespie

Special the Financial Independence Hub

It was a beautiful May morning when I next saw Rachel and Mike. Rachel was carrying a large gift-wrapped box.

“This is for you,” she said, smiling and handing the box to me.

“Thank you,” I said, pleasantly surprised. “Most of my clients wait until they see how their portfolio performs before expressing their appreciation.”

“Shall we take it back then?”

“No, no! I’ll keep it,” I said, smiling, as I began to slide off the ribbon and remove the wrapping.

I opened the lid, looked inside and grinned with pleasure. “Much appreciated,” I said, looking proudly at a genuine leather soccer ball with my daughter’s name custom-printed on the top panel. “Sarah’s going to love it!”

“We wanted to give you a memento of our first meeting,” Rachel said.

“How very appropriate. Well, I don’t have a soccer ball for you,” I said, putting the ball down. “But hopefully I have an equally useful gift.”

“One that will last a lifetime?” Rachel asked.

“Yes. You might say it’s a gift that keeps on giving,” I said, grinning and handing them each a file folder.

“Our retirement numbers?” Mike asked.

“Yes. These are your illustrations.”

“Will we need to eat cat food?” Mike asked with a smile.

“No.” I laughed. “My goal is to help you maximize your retirement income, not minimize it.”

“And we won’t outlive our money?” Mike asked, more serious now.

“You should have plenty left for your children, unless you live to be Methuselah’s age.”

“Methuselah lived to be 969 years old,” Rachel said. “So I think the odds of that happening to us are slim,” she said pointedly.

“Right. My mistake,” I admitted. “I’ve taken the liberty of including a life expectancy table in your retirement illustration, so you’ll know the odds.”

“The odds of us dying at a certain age? I’m not sure I’m ready to see that!” Mike said uneasily.

“Don’t be such a worrywart, Mike,” Rachel said, chiding him gently. “It’s not as if you’re going to see the exact date and time of your death.” Suddenly, she frowned and looked at me. “Are we?”

“No,” I said smiling. “The actuaries aren’t that good, at least not yet. The life expectancies I’ve included are estimates based on a number of factors including your current age, your diet, exercise frequency, stress, body fat, genetics and the quality of health care.We’ll get to those in a moment. What you’re about to see is a financial illustration. It’s designed to give you an initial picture of your retirement situation for planning purposes. But first, we need to review your finances together so we’re all on the same page. Agreed?”

“Agreed,” they said together.

“Good. Here’s a quick snapshot of your current finances. As we go through it, I want you to let me know if anything is amiss.”

This is what they saw:

“As you can see, your gross income is $170,000 per year, while your combined income after tax is approximately $125,000.” “We work hard for our income,” Rachel said defensively.

What pessimists may say about top Canadian bank stocks

Posted By Pat McKeough | March 13, 2017

The big Canadian banks in the heart of downtown Toronto

We’ve recommended buying the five top Canadian bank stocks since the 1970s, but not everyone has agreed with that advice.

Canadian banks have gone through periodic and sometimes lengthy slumps, like any other stock group. They occasionally make costly management errors. On rare occasions, they have suffered from adverse regulatory decisions.

This is what pessimistic investors might say about top Canadian bank investments. But because these stocks have grown, paid high dividends and have generally been available at highly attractive prices, they’ve provided well-above average investment returns for decades.

Investor worry and the banks

Some investors fear the banks will lose out to “fintech” (upstart financial technologies, comparable perhaps to Uber or AirBnB). Or they wonder if the banks will get caught unawares when interest rates make their long-awaited upward move.

Our view is that the banks had a long time to prepare for the inevitable rise in interest rates, and the inevitable coming of fintech competition. In fact, they will probably wind up prospering in fintech, if not dominating it, as they did in stock brokerage, insurance and other financial areas that they have entered in the past few decades.

On the whole, investors have underestimated top Canadian bank investments for as long as I’ve been in the investment business. As a result, these stocks have often traded at attractive share prices. Because they were growing, and cheaper in many respects than other stocks, they gave conservative Canadian investors a near-ideal combination of pluses: above-average dividend yields and records; low-to-moderate ratios of per share price-to-earnings; and above-average long-term capital gains.

Look for top Canadian bank stocks with consistent dividends

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