Tag Archives: risk

Can I afford to Retire?

The following is the second excerpt from Create the Retirement You Really Want: And Retire Smarter, Richer and Happier

By Clay Gillespie

Special the Financial Independence Hub

It was a beautiful May morning when I next saw Rachel and Mike. Rachel was carrying a large gift-wrapped box.

“This is for you,” she said, smiling and handing the box to me.

“Thank you,” I said, pleasantly surprised. “Most of my clients wait until they see how their portfolio performs before expressing their appreciation.”

“Shall we take it back then?”

“No, no! I’ll keep it,” I said, smiling, as I began to slide off the ribbon and remove the wrapping.

I opened the lid, looked inside and grinned with pleasure. “Much appreciated,” I said, looking proudly at a genuine leather soccer ball with my daughter’s name custom-printed on the top panel. “Sarah’s going to love it!”

“We wanted to give you a memento of our first meeting,” Rachel said.

“How very appropriate. Well, I don’t have a soccer ball for you,” I said, putting the ball down. “But hopefully I have an equally useful gift.”

“One that will last a lifetime?” Rachel asked.

“Yes. You might say it’s a gift that keeps on giving,” I said, grinning and handing them each a file folder.

“Our retirement numbers?” Mike asked.

“Yes. These are your illustrations.”

“Will we need to eat cat food?” Mike asked with a smile.

“No.” I laughed. “My goal is to help you maximize your retirement income, not minimize it.”

“And we won’t outlive our money?” Mike asked, more serious now.

“You should have plenty left for your children, unless you live to be Methuselah’s age.”

“Methuselah lived to be 969 years old,” Rachel said. “So I think the odds of that happening to us are slim,” she said pointedly.

“Right. My mistake,” I admitted. “I’ve taken the liberty of including a life expectancy table in your retirement illustration, so you’ll know the odds.”

“The odds of us dying at a certain age? I’m not sure I’m ready to see that!” Mike said uneasily.

“Don’t be such a worrywart, Mike,” Rachel said, chiding him gently. “It’s not as if you’re going to see the exact date and time of your death.” Suddenly, she frowned and looked at me. “Are we?”

“No,” I said smiling. “The actuaries aren’t that good, at least not yet. The life expectancies I’ve included are estimates based on a number of factors including your current age, your diet, exercise frequency, stress, body fat, genetics and the quality of health care.We’ll get to those in a moment. What you’re about to see is a financial illustration. It’s designed to give you an initial picture of your retirement situation for planning purposes. But first, we need to review your finances together so we’re all on the same page. Agreed?”

“Agreed,” they said together.

“Good. Here’s a quick snapshot of your current finances. As we go through it, I want you to let me know if anything is amiss.”

This is what they saw:

“As you can see, your gross income is $170,000 per year, while your combined income after tax is approximately $125,000.” “We work hard for our income,” Rachel said defensively.

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What pessimists may say about top Canadian bank stocks

The big Canadian banks in the heart of downtown Toronto

We’ve recommended buying the five top Canadian bank stocks since the 1970s, but not everyone has agreed with that advice.

Canadian banks have gone through periodic and sometimes lengthy slumps, like any other stock group. They occasionally make costly management errors. On rare occasions, they have suffered from adverse regulatory decisions.

This is what pessimistic investors might say about top Canadian bank investments. But because these stocks have grown, paid high dividends and have generally been available at highly attractive prices, they’ve provided well-above average investment returns for decades.

Investor worry and the banks

Some investors fear the banks will lose out to “fintech” (upstart financial technologies, comparable perhaps to Uber or AirBnB). Or they wonder if the banks will get caught unawares when interest rates make their long-awaited upward move.

Our view is that the banks had a long time to prepare for the inevitable rise in interest rates, and the inevitable coming of fintech competition. In fact, they will probably wind up prospering in fintech, if not dominating it, as they did in stock brokerage, insurance and other financial areas that they have entered in the past few decades.

On the whole, investors have underestimated top Canadian bank investments for as long as I’ve been in the investment business. As a result, these stocks have often traded at attractive share prices. Because they were growing, and cheaper in many respects than other stocks, they gave conservative Canadian investors a near-ideal combination of pluses: above-average dividend yields and records; low-to-moderate ratios of per share price-to-earnings; and above-average long-term capital gains.

Look for top Canadian bank stocks with consistent dividends

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“Scary” Investment moves to avoid

Shocked scared woman with financial market chart graphic going down on grey office wall background. Poor economy concept. Face expression, emotion, reaction

By Fraser Willson 

 Special to the Financial Independence Hub

 

If you have young children or grandchildren, you know what’s really important. Yes, it’s Halloween time again, which means you’ll see plenty of witches and vampires scurrying around. You’ll no doubt find these characters more amusing than frightening, but you don’t have to look far to find things that are a bit more alarming — such as these scary investment moves:

Paying too much attention to the headlines

Some headlines may seem unnerving, but don’t abandon your investment strategy just because the news of the day appears grim.

Chasing “hot” investments

You can get “hot” investment tips from the talking heads on television, your next-door neighbour or just about anybody. But even if the tip was accurate at one point, by the time you get to a “hot” investment, it may already be cooling down. And, even more importantly, it simply may not be appropriate for your individual risk tolerance and goals.

Ignoring different types of investment risk

Most investors are aware of the risk of losing principal when investing in stocks. But if you shun stocks totally in favour of perceived “risk-free” investments, you’d be making a mistake because all investments carry some type of risk. For example, with fixed-income investments, including GICs and bonds, one risk you may encounter is inflation risk — the risk that your investment will provide you with returns that won’t even keep up with inflation and will, therefore, result in a loss of purchasing power over time.

Another risk you can incur is interest-rate risk — the risk that new bonds will be issued at higher rates, driving down the price of your bonds. Bonds also carry the risk of default, though you can reduce this risk by sticking with bonds that receive the highest ratings from independent rating agencies.

Failing to diversify

If you only own one type of investment, and a market downturn affects that particular asset class, your portfolio could take a big hit. But by spreading your dollars among an array of vehicles, such as stocks, bonds and government securities, you can reduce the effects of volatility on your holdings. (Keep in mind, though, that diversification cannot guarantee profits or protect against loss.)

Focusing on the short term

If you concentrate too much on short-term results, you may react to a piece of bad news, or to a period of extreme price volatility, by making investment moves that are counterproductive to your goals. Furthermore, if you’re constantly seeking to instantaneously turn around losses, you’ll likely rack up fees, commissions and possibly taxes. Avoid all these hassles by keeping your eyes on the future and sticking to a long-term, personalized strategy.

You can’t always make the perfect investment choices. But by steering clear of the “scary” moves described above, you can work toward your long-term goals and hopefully avoid some of the more fearsome results.

0ec7e0fFraser Willson is a financial advisor and insurance agent for Edward Jones Investments. He works closely with families and businesses, helping them achieve their investment objectives in an organized and disciplined manner.

 

 

Why you should forget about buying Canadian marijuana stocks

 

Canadian marijuana stocks offer some speculative appeal — but here’s why we think you should avoid them

AMSTERDAM - AUGUST 26: Candy and cookies with marijuana for sale in the coffeeshop on August 26, 2014 in Amsterdam.

As you probably know, several U.S. states have decriminalized or legalized marijuana use and have begun authorizing legal production and sale of the plant. In Canada, marijuana has been legal for medical use for some time, and we are occasionally asked about Canadian marijuana stocks.

This change in the law is bound to lead to a shift in current and future marijuana production, from the underground economy to the legal economy, where it can be regulated, taxed and invested in. Tax revenues are already starting to roll in, but we haven’t found any Canadian marijuana stocks worthy of investment. So far, most of what we’ve seen are stock promotions.

We advise staying out of stock promotions of Canadian marijuana stocks businesses or anything else. They attract the wrong kind of people. Stock promotion is a take-the-money-and-run type of business. Most successful entrepreneurs value their reputations, and want to build a profitable, sustainable business that can pay off for investors. So they generally go into some other line of work, and stay out of stock promotion.

These days, it’s faster and easier than ever to launch a stock promotion, thanks to the Internet. One recent “penny pot” stock scam almost seems like an MBA-style case study on how to launch one of these frauds online.

We won’t name the penny stock company that is the subject of the promotion campaign, since it claims it’s not involved in the fraud. Let’s just refer to it as “Pot o’ Gold,” or POG for short.

The POG spam emails we’ve seen use the following techniques:

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A walk along Risk Road, Part 2: Investing in a Slow-Growth world

MAWER_Jim Hall 4x6 Formal blue bg
Mawer’s CIO, Jim Hall

By Cameron Webster, CFA
Institutional Portfolio Manager, Mawer Investment Management Ltd.

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

A few weeks ago in Part 1 of this series, we ran an interview featuring Mawer’s chief investment officer, Jim Hall (pictured, left) about current interest-rate trends and deflation.

This is the follow-up interview, where we look in more depth at the problem of investing in a low-growth world.

As noted earlier, we at  Mawer spend a great deal of time asking and answering the question: So What? A company’s share price is down 6%…so what? A central bank moved interest rates up…so what? Google re-named itself Alphabet…so what?

It’s not always an easy question to answer and often leads us to ask even more questions in an effort to develop key investment insights. “So what?” is one of the questions that can lead us to investment action (or inaction) in our process of building well-diversified, resilient portfolios.

MAWER_Cameron-Webster-4x6-Formal-blue-bg
Cameron Webster

Cameron Webster: Jim, last time we discussed how Mawer’s quarterly risk review ranks macro risks on both probability of occurrence and degree of severity. Remind us why this is part of the investment process.

Jim Hall: It is not enough to just look at potential risks. We need to ask ourselves is it something we need to do something about? Is this something upon which we need to act? Is it important? That’s the value in evaluating these risks on both probability of occurrence and severity of consequence. Continue Reading…