Tag Archives: stock markets

Weekly Wrap: “Heightened uncertainties” from the Fed, hedging risk, bear books

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Janet Yellen

I have just returned from a two-week trip to Hong Kong and Taiwan, just in time for the Federal Reserve’s long-awaited decision to delay the first rate hike since the financial crisis.

The key phrase “Heightened uncertainties abroad,” spoke as loudly as the lack of action, as Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen noted the risks of both China and Emerging Markets in generally spilling over into the United States.

Hedging in the Retirement Risk Zone

For those of us who are in the “Retirement Risk Zone,” — including Yours Truly — the caution behind the Fed’s decision could suggest that for some it may be appropriate to dial down portfolio risks. Since late August, I have followed my personal financial adviser’s recommendation to remain invested but to hedge back one third of US and Canadian equity exposure.

Generally, at whatever age, it makes little sense to take more risk than you need to take and the Fed’s decision (or non-decision) underlines that there are still extensive risks out there, certainly in the equity markets as well as fixed income. Fred Kirby, a fee-for-service planner at Dimensional Investment Planning, says it’s time to be cautious and protect profits. As I quoted him earlier this year, he suggests that those who are averse to market timing can consider the newer “low-volatility” ETFs. For Canadian exposure, he suggests the BMO Low Volatility Canadian Equity ETF (ZLB), which holds 40 stocks deemed to have the lowest risk. For U.S. stocks he likes the BMO Low Volatility US Equity ETF (ZLU), which uses the same methodology and holds 100 companies. For international equities, Kirby likes the iShares MSCI EAFE Minimum Volatility Index ETF (XMI). (There’s also an iShares low-vol ETF for Emerging Markets).

“These ETFs automatically position the cautious investor for any additional future gains without having to make a market-timing re-entry decision,” Kirby says. “This could be just the sort of compromise that lets some investors stick with their investment plans even when they do not want to.”

Actively Managed ETFs

On the same subject (ETFs), my latest Financial Post ETF column ran earlier this week, tackling actively managed ETFs. See Why Fund Investors Should Get Active with their ETFs.

Bear books revisited

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Weekly Wrap: Dow Theory sell signal?, Electoral goodies for homeowners, will Robos make your dreams come true?

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Mark Hulbert, Marketwatch.com

Influential investment newsletter ranker and market analyst Mark Hulbert says the Dow Theory just flashed a Sell Signal as Thursday’s swooning stock markets closed.

Two of three conditions for a “sell” signal were already in place before this week’s meltdown: the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average both must experience a significant correction from their joint new highs; then in any significant rally attempt following that correction, one or both  Dow averages must fail to rise above their pre-correction highs. As Hulbert notes, the first two conditions were met earlier this year: after sharp declines in January, the Dow Transports were not able to join the Dow Industrials in rising to new highs.

The third condition is that both averages must then drop below their respective correction lows. Hulbert says the “third and final hurdle of a Dow Theory ‘sell’ signal was generated at Thursday’s close when it broke under the low identified in step 1, which was 17,164.95.”

However, Hulbert says not all followers of the Dow Theory are throwing in the towel just yet, at least until the action in the broader S&P500 index confirms the negative action of the far narrower Dow indexes. Hulbert says Jack Schannep, editor of TheDowTheory.com, “acknowledges the original version of the Dow Theory has indeed emitted a ‘sell’ signal” but Schanne’s modified theory that focuses on the S&P500 as well as the Dow averages won’t generate a “Sell” signal until the S&P 500 closes below its January closing level of 1992.67. Even after Thursday’s carnage, the S&P500 was still 2.2% above its January low. Something to watch in Friday’s action: if that occurs, you can expect some pretty gruesome reading in this weekend’s financial pages.

It’s probably a good time to talk to your financial advisor but before taking drastic action of any nature, you might want to go back and read Steve Lowrie’s Hub posts that began each of the last three weeks, such as Stop reacting to Market Noise or Stop feeding on Junk Media.

The commodities sell-off

About the only thing that wasn’t headed south this week is gold, which has been in the doldrums for ages, along with oil and most other commodities. This week’s The Economist has a good summary of the dire situation of the commodities market: The Sell-off in Commodities: Goodbye to all that. It warns “the latest leg down in crude prices may not yet have run its course.”

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Secular bull market is very much alive: BMO’s Brian Belski

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Brian Belski

By Jonathan Chevreau

“The largest stealth bull market of our careers” is still very much alive, says BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian Belski.

In the keynote address  Wednesday for BMO Global Asset Management’s Global Vision, Global Perspectives conference in Chicago, the American-born investment veteran said U.S. stocks are now six years into a 20-year secular bull market.

“Bull markets rarely end when everyone is looking for an end to them,” he said, “The media is consumed with negativity.”

Canada “bottoming”

While Belski believes America is setting the pace for global markets, Canada “is in the process of bottoming,” he said. Most of the investment professionals at the three-day conference on mutual funds and ETFs are Canadian. It might not yet be quite time to buy Canada, he added, since the first quarter has been one of “shock and awe” caused by the worldwide plunge in energy prices. Looking further out, though, he said “Canada is the place to be.”

One reason the Canadian market has languished is a call by a large Wall Street firm to “sell Canada.”   Continue Reading…