Monthly Archives: November 2016

Are your investing goals different after the U.S. election?

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President Elect Donald Trump

We’ve been doing a lot of reading leading up to and since the election: as you’d expect there is no shortage of opinions of what is going to happen to financial markets and how investors should position themselves as a result.

The investing opinions vary as extremely as the political views.  We’ve read crazy things and some very sensible things.  Perhaps the best articulation of how to approach this was written by Ron Lieber  in the New York Times on Wednesday when he asked, “Are your goals different now?”

“Once upon a time — like, say, last week — you had an investing plan that was based on goals that may come years or decades from now. Perhaps you’re hoping to buy your first home. Maybe you’re trying to save enough to send a couple of children to college. You hope to retire by age 67.

Has any of that changed? If it hasn’t yet, then it’s not clear why your investments should.”  – Ron Lieber, New York Times

Big events happen and market volatility sometimes accompanies. That doesn’t mean you should try to guess the market’s reaction. As Lieber hints, changing your investment strategy to either protect you or try to take advantage of market volatility can be a sucker’s game.  At best you’ll get lucky: at worst you’ll fall victim to many of the psychological pitfalls that leave most investors, both individual and institutional, chasing the market to the detriment of their investment performance. Speculating and investing are very different things. You are an investor and investing successfully is a long term game.

So what should you do?

1.) Ignore the noise

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What does the Trump Victory mean for the Markets?

USA presidential election donald trump, vector illustration, Editorial use only
President Elect Donald Trump

By Craig Fehr, CFA, Edward Jones

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Global stocks initially reacted negatively on Wednesday in response to Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election victory, reflecting the fact that the outcome differed from the consensus expectation, as well as the greater degree of policy uncertainty associated with Trump.

The result does come with unknowns, but remember, the market is rarely free of political uncertainties. The broader path for investment conditions will, in our view, be driven by fundamental trends that are still reasonably favourable and unlikely to change abruptly based simply on the election. So while the markets are reacting immediately and in volatile fashion, it’s important to consider the longer-term outlook when it comes to your investments.

Initial volatility doesn’t tell whole story

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Investing in the Aftermath of the Trump victory

image005By Kara Lilly, Mawer Investment Management

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Donald Trump became the 45th president-elect of the United States last night. The businessman beat former secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, ending what has been a long and salacious presidential campaign. The GOP also kept control of both the Senate and the House, leaving the fractured party with room to implement its policy platform.

Markets were relatively calm today despite the knee-jerk selloff that was triggered by the impending victory last night. Equity indices have steadied and volatility indices have fallen as market anxiety has tempered. The greatest impacts so far appear in the bond and currency markets. Yields on longer term U.S. government bonds have risen amid wagers of higher spending. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar and Mexico peso have sunk on concerns of unravelling economic integration with the U.S.. Within equities, pharmaceutical stocks rose as investors unwound bets that a Clinton win would usher in greater regulation.

No meltdown but still a significant investing event

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Investing for the Trumpocalypse; Review of Trump bio, Never Enough

trumpbookEditor’s Note. The Hub originally ran the book review that appears below last February but in light of last night’s shocking defeat of Hillary Clinton by Donald Trump, it seems timely to rerun it now, when the world is thinking of no other topic.

In the meantime,for the possible financial implications of the Trump victory: see my FP blog today on what investors should do in light of the feared “Trumpocalypse.

In brief, and as I noted in my Twitter feed last night, those overweight stocks could reasonably have expected a major plunge on the major US and stock indexes at this morning’s open. Markets elsewhere started to plunge as soon as the historic result became clear well before midnight. However, this did NOT occur once the American markets opened at 9:30 this morning: instead, US markets were mostly positive almost from the get-go and by the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 257 points, while the Canadian market was up more than 100 points.

Things could change over the coming days but as always diversification and asset allocation offers a degree of protection under such uncertain conditions. Those with cash, gold or precious metals, bonds, real estate and who are in some way partly hedged by being short certain equity ETFs should find themselves partly cushioned should markets go south. 

The unexpected election outcome was predicted in certain circles: documentary maker Michael Moore and currency expert James Rickards come to mind. But of course, very few would have heeded these warnings, so unbelievable did this outcome appear. While the expectation was that Clinton was good for markets and Trump was not, Wednesday’s market action confounded this notion. Still, if you’re an investor, definitely consult your financial advisor. 

I’d argue that if you didn’t take steps to hedge against this outcome before, the horse has already escaped the barn and it may be best to sit aside, try not to panic and wait for things to stabilize in a day or two. If you’re with a robo-adviser service, hopefully your asset allocation reflects your true investment personality and no major actions should be necessary. 

As advertised,  here’s the (very short) book review, as I originally wrote it:

Book Review: Never Enough — Donald Trump and the Pursuit of Success

The title of Michael D’antonio’s new biography of Donald Trump — Never Enough: Donald Trump and the Pursuit of Success — was enough to get me to order the book from the library and read it from cover to cover. After all, I was a big fan of John Bogle’s book with a similar but diametrically opposed title: Enough.

Perhaps my view of Donald Trump was long coloured by my late mother’s assessment that if I ever turned out like the Donald, she’d disown me, or words to that effect. After all, Trump epitomizes the main worldly goals of our era: his career was all about pursuing the holy triad of fame, money and power: in that order. And add a fourth, his admission that his main vice has been sex, even though he was largely an abstainer from other popular vices like drinking or drugs.

The original Wealthy Boomer

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Annuities may have a place in your retirement investing

Gold key with Annuity tag, with keyhole and cashCanadian annuities offer a predictable source of income, but we advise against buying them.

An annuity may be worth considering for part of your assets, depending on your age, investment experience, the time you want to devote to your investments, your desire to leave an estate to your heirs and other aspects of your retirement investing.

But a key drawback to annuities is that annuity rates are closely linked to interest rates, which are at historic lows. In addition, annuities have no liquidity. If interest rates and inflation move up, your annuity payments would remain fixed and you would lose purchasing power. Plus, you would have no way to rearrange your portfolio. This is why we generally advise against investing in Canadian annuities.

There are basically three types of Canadian annuities:

1.) Term-certain annuities are payable to you, or your estate, for a fixed number of years. Your estate will receive the payments even if you die. You could outlive this type of annuity.

2.) Single-life annuities are payable to you for as long as you are alive. These annuities may come with a minimum number of years of payments. If you die while the minimum payment period is still underway, future payments would go to your estate.

3.) Joint and last survivor life annuities are payable as long as you, or your spouse, are alive.

3 Ways Canadian Annuities can hurt Your Retirement Investing

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