All posts by Financial Independence Hub

Why the 4% Rule doesn’t work for FIRE/Early Retirement

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By Mark and Joe

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

The 4% rule is a common rule of thumb in many retirement planning circles, including the Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) community in particular.

What does the 4% rule actually mean?

Should the 4% rule be used for any FIRE-seeker?

Does the 4% rule really matter to retirement planning at all?

Read on to find out our take, including what rules of thumb (if any) we’re using at Cashflows & Portfolios for our early retirement dreams.

The 4% rule is really a starting point for a safe withdrawal rate

Unlike 2 + 2 = 4, the 4% rule is not really a universal truth for any retirement plan at all.

It is, however, in our opinion, a great starting point to understand the impacts of asset decumulation, related to inflation, over time.

As you’ll read more about in the sections below, the 4% rule is fraught with many problems. None more so than for an early retiree or FIRE-seeker. In some cases, for the FIRE community, we believe the 4% rule should no longer be used at all.

Are any financial rules really rules?

Backing up, here is the source for the 4% rule.

The article from 1994!

4% rule

Despite the geeky photo, by all accounts, Bill Bengen was one heckuva guy and a smart guy as well!

Potentially no other retirement planning rule of thumb has received more attention over the last 25-30 years than Bengen’s publication about the 4% rule. This publication in 1994 has triggered a new generation of devotees and arm-chair financial planners that are using this quick-math as a way to cement some retirement dreams. We believe that is a mistake for a few reasons.

First, let’s unpack what the 4% rule really means.

What does the 4% rule actually mean?

From the study:

“In Figures 1 (a)-l(d), a series of graphs illustrates the historical performance of portfolios consisting of 50-percent intermediate-term Treasury notes and 50-percent common stocks (an arbitrary asset allocation chosen for purposes of illustration). I have quantified portfolio performance in terms of “portfolio longevity”: how long the portfolio will last before all its investments have been exhausted by
withdrawals. This is an intuitive approach that is easy to explain to my clients, whose primary goal is making it through retirement without exhausting their funds, and whose secondary goal is accumulating wealth for their heirs.”

Unpacking this further, for those that do not want to read the entire study, here is something more succinct from Bengen:

Assuming a minimum requirement of 30 years of portfolio longevity, a first-year withdrawal of 4 percent, followed by inflation-adjusted withdrawals in subsequent years, should be safe.

 

“Should be safe”.

Again, the theory is one thing. Reality is something different and the financial future is always subject to change. Furthermore, if you’re blindly following this formula without considering whether it’s right for your situation, let alone putting in some guardrail approach to monitor your portfolio value at various checkpoints, you could end up either running out of money prematurely or being left with a huge financial surplus that you could have spent during your retirement. We’ll prove that point in a bit from another leading author.

Should the 4% rule be used for any FIRE-seeker?

Probably not. For many reasons.

Recently, Vanguard published an outstanding article about the need to revise any thinking about the 4% rule for the FIRE movement – a driver for this post.

Although the 4% rule remains a decent rule of thumb we believe most FIRE-seekers should heed the cautions in the Vanguard post. Here are some of our thoughts based on the article’s contents.

  • Caution #1 – FIRE-seekers should not rely on past performance for future returns

We agree. In looking at this Vanguard set of assumptions below, and based on our own personal investing experiences, we believe historical returns should not be used to guarantee any future results.

 

Source: Vanguard article – Fueling the FIRE movement

While the FP Canada Standards Council doesn’t have a multi-year (10-year) return model in mind, they did highlight in their latest projection assumption guidelines that going forward, investor returns may not be as juicy as in years past.

 

Source: FP Canada Standards Council.

This means for any historical studies, while interesting, may not be a great predictor of any future outcomes.

  • Caution #2 – The FIRE-seeking time horizon is longer

Bengen noted in his 1994 study:

“Therefore, I counsel my clients to withdraw at no more than a four-percent rate during the early years of retirement, especially if they retire early (age 60 or younger). Assuming they have normal life expectancies, they should live at least 25-30 years. If they wish to leave some wealth to their heirs, their expected “portfolio lives” should be some longer than that. “

Bengen goes on to say:

“If the client expects to live another 30 years, I point out that the chart shows 31 scenario years when he would outlive his assets, and only 20 which would have been adequate for his purposes (as we shall see later, a different asset allocation would improve this, but it would still be uncomfortable, in my opinion).
This means he has less than a 40-percent chance to successfully negotiate retirement–not very good odds.”

To paraphrase, Bengen’s study was relevant to 30 years in retirement. Not 35 years. Not 40 years and certainly not 50 years like some FIRE-seekers may need if they plan to retire at age 40 and live to age 90 (or beyond).

This is simply a huge reminder that your time horizon is a critical factor when it comes to retirement planning.

  • Caution #3 – FIRE-seekers may need to live with more stocks

Bengen’s 1994 study was based on the following:

“Note that my conclusions above were based on the assumption that the client continually rebalanced a portfolio of 50-percent common stocks and 50-percent intermediate-term Treasuries.” Continue Reading…

Letting go can lead us to Opportunity and Freedom

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Photo by Sebastian Staines on Unsplash

By Akaisha Kaderli, RetireEarlyLifestyle.com

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Often, we have the idea that letting go means the loss of something valued. This implies that there might be grief and pain involved.

Out of fear we envision ourselves in some barren emotional wilderness, with nothing around that is familiar so there has to be that dreaded chaos, right?

 And who wants that?

But what if letting go leads us to brilliance? To our own personal freedom of expression? What if this is Life’s way of steering our personal growth in a manner where we display our best talents?

Letting go could mean opening up.

Examples

 Art/music

Have you ever heard a musician or singer who is technically perfect: but there seems to be no soul? No felt connection to the audience?

Yes, all the notes are there and in the right place, but … something is missing.

There is no grab at my heart. I could just as well be chopping carrots in the kitchen for soup. It’s just routine, and maybe I should have bought a bag of frozen carrots instead.I always know when I hear someone “Who’s got it.” My eyes well up and I can’t reign it in. That’s my validation signature.

Photo by Daniel Angele on Unsplash

Chills on my arms, my eyes are glued to the performer and I am transported. The artist has whisked me away, and I want to go.

It could be a jazz singer who scats, a sax player having a riff or Billy Joel hitting the high notes for Christy Lee.

They let go and have entered “The Zone.”

Sports

Ok, here’s another example.

We have all seen outfielders throw their bodies at a fly ball just to catch that thing. Or a basketball player speed down a court and ram a ball into a basket. Ballerinas, ice skaters, skateboarders spin incomprehensibly – how can a physical body DO that?

Maybe as a skier you have caught air and you know that sensation of flight for yourself.

That’s my point.

To let go, is to leave the ground and enter genius territory.

Fear and contraction

When we begin to learn something new – cooking, Latin dancing, painting on canvas, surfing – there are basics. We learn the techniques, the rules, the boundaries. And then to develop proficiency, we leave them behind. Continue Reading…

Everything you need to know about Multifamily Commercial Real Estate Investing

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Real estate low-rise construction building for multiple families

By Veronica Baxter

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

If you are looking to get serious about real estate investing, then a multifamily commercial real estate investment offers you a great ROI, portfolio diversity, and strong growth potential. But, before we get too far ahead, what exactly is a multifamily property?

What is a Multifamily Property?

In the commercial real estate sector, a multifamily property is an apartment building that has five or more units. According to this definition, multifamily properties are very diverse. They can include everything from towering apartment complexes to city rowhomes converted by property developers.

Because there is a wide range of property types that can be designated as multifamily property, many smaller investors with less capital than large investment conglomerates can potentially reap some of the benefits.

Later on in the post, we will discuss three methods investors use to invest in real estate, but it helps to mention them here to show that even smaller investors can get in on the lucrative returns of real estate. Investors can directly purchase the property or pool their capital with other investors in a real estate investment trust or private equity firm.

Opportunities for both Passive and Active Investors

Another benefit of investing in multifamily commercial real estate is that it is profitable whether or not you are an active or passive investor. As the names imply, active and passive investors assume opposite engagement roles with their investments. Though there is plenty of nuance and overlap between the two, in general, passive investors are in it for the long haul. They plan to hold on to the property for as long as possible. In contrast, active investors see multifamily property as an opportunity to buy cheap, renovate and sell at a higher price.

For Passive Investors

Passive investors often leave the property management and financial management to other parties, which truly embodies the idea of passive income. Many of these investors receive only quarterly disbursements from the portfolio manager and have little else to do with the procedural technicalities. Passive investors, in this sense, only really front the initial investment and reap the rewards.

This passive strategy has been shown to be less risky over time and, as a result, more lucrative. In addition, passive investors see multifamily commercial real estate investments as tangible assets to grow their wealth in.

For Active Investors

Active investors search the markets for opportunistic buys. For example, they often look for cheaper, older property to renovate and refurbish into more expensive multifamily property. Then, after the flip, they either sell for a much higher price or hold if the asset is projected to appreciate rapidly. In general, active investors take more risks than passive investors, but when they strike gold, the profits come fast.

They are much more hands-on in their approach, working alongside developers, contractors, and designers to upgrade older properties. As a result, they must know the commercial real estate process and terminologies, such as NOI, commercial real estate cap rate, and other terms.

Benefits of Multifamily Commercial Real Estate Investing

Whether you seek to become an active or a passive investor, there are numerous benefits to multifamily real estate investing. Here are a few of the advantages:

Diversification

Having a diverse investment portfolio helps to mitigate the risks associated with economic downturns. Generally, commercial real estate is not highly correlated with the movement of the stock market, so it is an ideal asset class to hold opposite of stocks. Moreover, having wealth invested across various assets is the surest way to reduce risks if the stock market crashes or in lieu of a natural disaster that disrupts the global markets.

“Forced” Appreciation

Commercial property is valued on NOI, or net operating income, whereas residential real estate is usually valued on comparisons with other similar properties. NOI valuations allow property managers to directly increase the value of their property by raising rent and reducing operation costs. This alters the NOI equation, which, in turn, raises the value of their property. This is called forced appreciation.

Dispersion of Vacancy Risk

The more units in a property, the less any one vacancy will affect revenue. This is one significant benefit to investing in a multifamily property. If you rent out your residential property, you are solely dependent on your tenant for income. However, the more tenants you have, the less impactful a single vacancy will be. Multifamily property investments reduce the risks associated with numerous vacancies.

Lease Escalations

It is common practice for commercial leases to have escalation clauses built into them. These clauses stipulate rent increases over time. If operational costs generally remain stable, then the yearly ROI increases with the periodic rent increases.

What are different ways to Invest?

As mentioned above, there are three main ways investors can invest their capital in multifamily real estate. These different methods allow both large and small investors to get a stake in commercial property.

Direct Purchase

A direct purchase involves an investor or group of investors coming together to purchase commercial property directly. They usually form an LLC for liability purposes and have total control over the process. This freedom comes with a cost, however. The investors are responsible for finding a property, raising capital, and negotiating a deal. Once purchased, the investors are then entirely responsible for managing the property, drawing up leases, and outreaching to potential tenants.

This is a very involved route. For new investors looking to diversify their investment portfolio, this might not be the best place to start.

Real Estate Investment Trusts

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are corporations that perform the above functions of a direct purchaser but as a corporate entity. Investors buy shares or stocks in the corporation, which can be publicly or privately traded. Continue Reading…

How to generate Passive Income 

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Image Credit: Pixabay

By Mike Khorev

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Many of us strive for financial security; luckily, passive income investments open up the opportunity to make extra money on the side. 

All you need is the willingness to put in some fundamental groundwork: you don’t necessarily need savings to kickstart your investment. There are plenty of options when it comes to generating passive income that go far beyond the realms of compound investing. Here are some fresh ideas to get you started.

1.) Investments

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs)

Exchange-Traded Funds, known as ETFs, are a great way to invest in the stock market without needing to research individual companies. Investing in ETFs provides both capital gains and dividends. Diversify your investments to receive the maximum benefit. ETFs are rather low maintenance and yield a lower risk than regular equities.

Dividend-paying stocks

Feel the benefits of dividend stock investments with a range of stocks yielding up to 5% dividends. The hardest part is knowing which stocks are worth investment. The best way to generate larger profits is to choose dividends that come with franking credits. Stock market unpredictability is no secret, be willing to face a sudden rise and fall in value or cut dividends altogether.  

Robo-advisors

If you’re looking for an affordable financial advisor to manage your investments, Robo-Advisors could be for you. They personalise automated trading decisions based on your financial targets, limits and time frames for a fraction of the cost. They are one of the most passive forms of income. 

2.) Real estate

Rental income

Rental yield can be one of the most profitable forms of passive income. Experts state that small apartments containing 1-2 bedrooms have more success on the market generating returns of over 8%. Real Estate Agents will handle legal documentation, rent collection, and advertise your property for a recurring fee of 5-12% of the monthly rent.

Airbnb

Airbnb is a thriving marketplace with host’s estimated monthly earnings sitting at $924 per month. While properties are free to list, hosts are charged a 3-5% service fee and are liable to income tax. Many hosts invest earnings into outsourced housekeepers to maintain passiveness. 

Real estate investment trusts (REITs)

REIT investments are perfect for those who are interested in real estate without the responsibility of sustaining individual properties. Typically, REITs support non-residential buildings such as offices, apartment complexes, and retail centres. Commercial buildings are famous for yielding large profits, passive income will be paid in the form of dividends.

3.) Content creation and advertising

Affiliate marketing

Affiliate links are more negotiable than ever, not only do they support affiliate businesses, they are also a manageable form of passive income. Invest some time into digital content creation that generates healthy volumes of traffic. Aim to recommend products you truly believe in to build a trusting relationship with your audience and boost clicks.  Continue Reading…

How (In)credible is the Transitory Inflation argument?

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By John De Goey, CFP, CIM

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

If there’s one thing we’ve all learned in the past two years, it is that central bankers mean business: both literally and figuratively.  In other words, when central bankers say they ‘have our backs’ in both extending the business cycle by promoting fuller employment and doing so without causing meaningful inflation, we should take them at their word.

As such, central bankers “mean business” literally (meaning they will promote business interests) and figuratively (meaning they are serious, determined and dedicated to their mission).  Then again, for the past two years, those two objectives have been mostly aligned.  What if new circumstances were to make them mutually exclusive?

Looking south of the border, we had a modest yield curve inversion in the spring of 2019 and within a few weeks, then President Trump applied some considerable political pressure (something arms-length central bankers are supposed to be immune to) in order to get the federal reserve to cut rates, which they did in three successive meetings that autumn.

At the time, inflation was benign and tellingly, unemployment was at its lowest level in a generation.  In other words, by any reasonable standard, the fed had done a superb job to that point and no interventions or adjustments seemed necessary.  Despite this, there were changes and a purportedly imminent recession was averted.  Or not. After all, there’s no reliable way of knowing what might have happened had rates not been lowered that autumn.

These days, the narrative coming from central banks is that the recent spate of above-average inflation is ‘transitory,’ meaning it will likely normalize around more traditional levels once the artificially low data of the post COVID year (basically Q2 and Q3 of 2020) falls out of the data set.

Skeptical of the Central Bank line on inflation

Of course, no one knows for sure if the inflation we’re seeing now is genuinely transitory or the harbinger of a more prolonged period of elevated prices. There’s a Chinese proverb that states, “to be uncertain is to be uncomfortable, but to be certain is ridiculous.”  I’m not for a moment suggesting that inflation is or is not transitory. Rather, I am respectfully skeptical of the central bank line.

It may indeed be true that the inflation fear will dissipate into nothingness before the end of the year. Then again, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland has boasted that the fiscal support offered to Canadians over the past 15 months can act as a sort of ‘pre-loaded stimulus’ that will keep the economy humming long after the government cheques stop coming.  What if Freeland is understating the impact?

Specifically, what if Canadians are so euphoric about the economy re-opening that they start buying things and experiences like never before?  Wouldn’t that kind of spike in purchasing activity risk a spike (or at least prolongation) in inflation?

Higher for Longer

There are some who think central banks are managing expectations about inflation being higher for longer to buy time and provide cover for an anticipated period of deliberate bank inactivity.  In essence, what if central banks don’t act to control high and prolonged inflation because doing so (i.e., raising rates significantly and sooner than expected) would destroy both the economic recovery and the bull markets so many are currently enjoying? Continue Reading…