All posts by Jonathan Chevreau

TFSA contribution is Job One in 2023 and other inflation-related tax changes to consider

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A belated Happy New Year to readers. Today I wanted to start with a reminder that your first Financial New Year’s Resolution should always be to top up your TFSA contribution to your TFSA (Tax-free savings account), which because of inflation has been bumped to $6,500 for 2023. I’ll also link to two useful columns by a financial blogger and prominent media tax expert.

A must read is Jamie Golombek’s article in Saturday’s Financial Post (Dec. 31/2022), titled 11 tax changes and new rules that will affect your finances in 2023. Golombek is of course the managing director, Tax & Estate planning for CIBC Private Wealth.

He doesn’t lead with the TFSA but does note that the cumulative TFSA limit is now $88,000 for someone who has never contributed to a TFSA. On Twitter there is a community of Canadian financial bloggers who often reveal their personal TFSA portfolios, which tend to be mostly high-yielding Canadian dividend-paying stocks. In some cases, their TFSA portfolios are spinning out as much as $1,000 a month in tax-free income.

On a personal note, my own TFSA was doing nicely until 2022, when it got dragged down a bit by US tech stocks and a token amount of cryptocurrency. Seeing as I turn 70 this year, I’ll be a lot more cautious going forward. I’ll let the existing stock positions run and hopefully recover but my new contribution yesterday was entirely in a 5-year GIC, even though I could find none paying more than 4.31% at RBC Direct, where our TFSAs are housed. (I’d been under the illusion they would by now be paying 5%. I believe it’s still possible to get 5% at independents like Oaken and EQ Bank.)

At my stage of life, TFSA space is too valuable to squander on speculative stocks, IPOs, SPACs or crypto currencies. Yes, if you knew for sure such flyers would yield a quick double or triple, it would be a nice play to “sell half on the double,” but it’s better to place such speculations in non-registered accounts, where you can at least offset capital gains with tax-loss selling. So for me and I’d suggest others in the Retirement Risk Zone, it’s interest income and Canadian dividend income in a TFSA and nothing else.

Inflation and Tax Brackets

Back to Golombek and inflation. Golombek notes that in November 2022, the Canada Revenue Agency said the the inflation rate for indexing 2023 tax brackets and amounts would be 6.3%:

“The new federal brackets are: zero to $53,359 (15 per cent); more than $53,359 to $106,717 (20.5 per cent); more than $106,717 to $165,430 (26 per cent); more than $165,430 to $235,675 (29 per cent); and anything above that is taxed at 33 per cent.”

Basic Personal Amount

The Basic Personal Amount (BPA) — which is the ‘tax-free’ zone that can be earned free of any federal tax — rises to $15,000 in 2023, as legislated in late 2019. Note Golombek’s caveat that higher-income earners may not get the full, increased BPA but will still get the “old” BPA, indexed to inflation, of $13,521 for 2023.

RRSP limit: The RRSP dollar limit for 2023 is $30,790, up from $29,210 in 2022.

OAS: Golombek notes that the Old Age Security threshold for 2023 is $86,912, beyond which it begins to get clawed back.

First Home Savings Accounts (FHSA). Golombek says legislation to create the new tax-free FHSA was recently passed, and it could be launched as soon as April 1, 2023. This new registered plan lets first-time homebuyers save $40,000 towards th purchase of a first home in Canada: contributions are tax deductible, like an RRSP. And it can be used in conjunction with the older Home Buyers’ Plan.

3 investing headlines to ignore this year

Meanwhile in the blogosphere, I enjoyed Robb Engen’s piece at Boomer & Echo, which ran on January 1st: 3 Investing Headlines To Ignore This Year. Continue Reading…

5 key themes that will shape the Canadian and global economy in 2023

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Vanguard Group

 

Vanguard has released its 2023 forecast. You can access it by clicking on this link to a PDF.

We first looked at this in this Hub blog on December 12: Vanguard says Balanced portfolios still offer best chance of success as Inflation gets beaten back.  

In this follow-up blog, we’re looking in more depth on the Canadian portion of the report, which begins on page 23. We have reproduced some of the text and charts from that section in the second half of this blog.

“Generally, we are calling for a global recession next year, including a milder recession for Canada with economic growth pegged at 0.7% (for Canada),” says Matthew Gierasimczuk, spokesperson for Vanguard Investments Canada Inc.

Vanguard expects five key themes will shape the Canadian and global economic environment as we move into 2023:

  1. Central banks’ vigilance in the fight against inflation
  2. Spillover effects of global economy, energy, and real estate markets on the Canadian economy
  3. Economic effects of the energy crisis in Europe
  4. China’s long-term structural challenges as it aims to end its zero-COVID policy
  5. Last, but not least, a more positive outlook for long-term investors across bonds and equities

 Fighting inflation: Central banks maintain vigilance

 Vanguard says 2022 has proven to be “one of the most rapidly evolving economic and financial market environments in history. Across the globe, central banks have responded with coordinated monetary policy changes that have outpaced anything we’ve seen for several decades.”

A globally coordinated monetary tightening regime

 “This is the greatest inflation threat we’ve seen since the 1980s,” it continues, “Central banks have a difficult path ahead that will require being more aggressive with policy, making additional rate hikes, and maintaining vigilance as the inflation situation shifts.In the U.S., the Federal Reserve has adopted the position that there is still work to be done, and it appears to have the resolve to stick with it.”

For the balance of this blog, we’ll drill down on the report’s prognosis for Canada, which starts on page 23 of the forecast. We’ve selected large chunks of text, which is as it appears in the report, with minor excisions such as references to some charts not reproduced here. Therefore, we are not using quotation marks. An ellipsis (3 dots as here: …) is used to indicate sections excised between passages. With one or two exceptions, most subheadings are from Vanguard. Readers who want the full report should of course click on the PDF link above.

Canada: Reining in an overheating economy

The year 2022 has seen persistent global inflation followed by rising policy rates as central banks across the world played catch-up. Over the course of 2022, inflation in Canada continued to tread higher driven by a combination of rising demand, tightening labor markets, and volatile energy and food prices as a result of ongoing supply constraints and geopolitical events. Heading into 2023, there are growing signs that inflation will moderate due to recovery in global commodity supply and slowing economic growth driven by tightening monetary policy.

In 2022 we discussed how policy tightening will be a crucial risk behind a lower growth environment among other factors such as high inflation, further supply disruptions, and new virus variants. Looking back most of these risks occurred throughout the course of 2022. The unexpected Russian invasion of Ukraine added to supply disruptions and pushed headline CPI inflation to its historically highest level of 7.9% YoY. Continue Reading…

Retired Money: Direct Indexing has drawbacks but a hybrid DIY strategy may have merits

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Image courtesy MoneySense.ca/Unsplash: Photo by Ruben Sukatendel

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at a trendy new investing approach known as “Direct Indexing.” You can find the full column by clicking on the highlighted headline: What is direct indexing? Should you build your own index?

Here’s a definition from Investopedia : “Direct indexing is an approach to index investing that involves buying the individual stocks that make up an index, in the same weights as the index.”

When I first read about this, I thought this was some version of the common practice by Do-it-yourself investors who “skim” the major holdings of major indexes or ETFs, thereby avoiding any management fees associated with the ETFs. It is and it isn’t, and we explore this below.

Investopedia notes that in the past, buying all the stocks needed to replicate an index, especially large ones like the S&P 500, required hundreds of transactions: building an index one stock at a time is time-consuming and expensive if you’re paying full pop on trading commissions. However, zero-commission stock trading largely gets around this constraint, democratizing what was once the preserve of wealthy investors.   According to this article that ran in the summer at Charles River [a State Street company], direct indexing has taken off in the US: “ While direct index portfolios have been available for over 20 years, continued advancement of technology and structural industry changes have eliminated barriers to adoption, reduced cost, and created an environment conducive for the broader adoption of these types of strategies.”

These forces also means direct indexing can be attractive in Canada as well, it says. However, an October 2022 article in Canadian trade newspaper Investment Executive suggests “not everyone thinks it will take root in Canada.” It cast direct indexing as an alternative to owning ETFs or mutual funds, noting that players include Boston-based Fidelity Investments Inc, BlackRock Inc., Vanguard Group Inc., Charles Schwab and finance giants Goldman Sachs Inc. and Morgan Stanley.

An article at Morningstar Canada suggested direct indexing is “effectively … the updated version of separately managed accounts (SMA). As with direct indexing, SMAs were modified versions of mutual funds, except the funds were active rather than passive with SMAs.”

My MoneySense column quotes Wealth manager Matthew Ardrey, a vice president with Toronto-based TriDelta Financial, who is skeptical about the benefits of direct indexing: “While I always think it is good for an investor to be able to lower fees and increase flexibility in their portfolio management, I question just who this strategy is right for.” First, Ardrey addresses the fees issue: “Using the S&P500 as an example, an investor must track and trade 500 stocks to replicate this index. Though they could tax-loss-sell and otherwise tilt their allocation as they see fit, the cost of managing 500 stocks is very high: not necessarily in dollars, but in time.” It would be onerous to make 500 trades alone, especially if fractional shares are involved.

Ardrey concludes Direct indexing may be more useful for those trying to allocate to a particular sector of the market (like Canadian financials), where “a person would have to buy a lot less companies and make the trading worthwhile.”

A hybrid strategy used by DIY financial bloggers may be more doable

I would call this professional or advisor-mediated Direct Indexing and agree it seems to have severe drawbacks. However, that doesn’t mean savvy investors can’t implement their own custom approach to incorporate some of these ideas. Classic Direct Indexing seems similar but slightly different than a hybrid strategy many DIY Canadian financial bloggers have been using in recent years. They may target a particular stock index – like the S&P500 or TSX – and buy  most of the underlying stocks in similar proportions. Again, the rise of zero-commission investing and fractional share ownership has made this practical for ordinary retail investors. Continue Reading…

Recession “most probable” scenario for US and Europe in 2023: Infrastructure plays attractive, says ClearBridge

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Image: Pexels/Engin Akyurt

’Tis the Season for economic forecasts. Further to the Vanguard 2023 outlook highlighted on the Hub yesterday comes various forecasts from Franklin Templeton Investments and its sub-advisors.

The selections below suggest Recession is the most likely scenario for 2023 — something Vanguard also forecast — and ClearBridge Investments sees Infrastructure assets as more promising than global equities during this period. Clearbridge runs the Franklin Clearbridge Sustainable Global Infrastructure Income Active ETF.  See also this blog on Infrastructure investing from BMO ETFs, which ran on the Hub late in August.

As with Monday’s blog, we’ve highlighted relevant paragraphs directly from the horse’s mouth, including the subheadings from the various money managers. Unless otherwise indicated, images are from our image banks.

ClearBridge Investments: U.S. economic outlook by Investment Strategist Jeff Schulze

Recession is the path of least resistance

As we look ahead to 2023, recession has gone from a distantly possible scenario to the most probable one, and the potential pivot by the Fed that many equity investors are hoping for is unlikely to occur.

Our views are grounded in the reading of the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard of 12 economic indicators, which has been flashing red for the past four months, indicating a recession. Eight of the 12 underlying indicators are signaling recession, including traditional recession precursors, like the 10- year/3-month Treasury yield curve, which inverted this fall. This portion of the yield curve has correctly anticipated the last eight recessions dating back to 1970, providing an average of 11 months of warning.

Image: Pexels/Mart Production

A recession is not a done deal, however. The most likely positive path involves what we have dubbed the “immaculate slackening” where the labor market tightens but not too many jobs are lost. Job openings are still more than 3 million above their pre-pandemic level (but down 1.5 million from the peak), while the total number of persons employed is only around 1 million greater than before COVID-19. This suggests room exists to loosen labor demand but not destroy as many jobs, which would help restore balance and ease wage gains. Importantly, this could help ease inflation, particularly in service industries where wages are a larger component of prices.

The most important factor to achieve a soft landing is a substantial reduction in inflation, which would allow the Fed to back off its aggressive actions. With inflation unlikely to return to 2% in 2023, and the labor market proving resilient, the Fed is likely to continue to tighten monetary policy to slow the economy and curb price increases, which will ultimately result in a recession. Monitoring the health of the labor market will be important in the coming year, given its role as a key inflation barometer for the Fed. We will also be looking for signs of weakening consumption outside of the most interest rate sensitive areas as evidence that a slowdown is taking deeper root.

ClearBridge Investments: Global infrastructure outlook by Portfolio Managers Charles Hamieh, Shane Hurst and Nick Langley

Infrastructure earnings more secure than global equities; U.S. expected to focus on renewables

From no growth in 2020 to rapid growth in 2021 to slow growth in 2022, we look at 2023 with a base case of recessions in the U.S., Europe and the U.K.

The impact on infrastructure, though, should be muted, particularly for our regulated assets, where the companies generate their cash flows, earnings and dividends from their underlying asset bases, as we expect those asset bases to increase over the next several years. As a result, infrastructure earnings look better protected compared to global equities.

Infrastructure assets more secure than global equities. Image from Franklin ClearBridge

Most infrastructure companies have a link to inflation in their revenue or returns. Regulated assets, such as utilities, have their regulated allowed returns adjusted for changes in bond yields over time. As real yields rise, utilities look poised to perform well, and we have currently tilted our infrastructure portfolios to reflect this.

As a result, the underlying valuations of infrastructure assets are relatively unaffected by changes in inflation and bond yields. However, we have seen equity market volatility associated with higher bond yields impact the prices of listed infrastructure securities, making them more compelling when compared with unlisted infrastructure valuations in the private markets.

On top of its relative appeal versus equities, infrastructure should benefit from several macro drivers in 2023 — and beyond. First, energy security is driving policy right now, and a significant amount of infrastructure will need to be built to attain energy security. High gas prices and supply constraints brought on by the Russia/Ukraine war have highlighted the importance of energy security and energy investment. This is supportive of energy infrastructure, particularly in Europe, where additional capacity is needed to supplant Russian oil and gas supply, and in the U.S., where new basins are starting up, in part to meet fresh demand from Europe. Continue Reading…