All posts by Jonathan Chevreau

Retired Money: Is the dream of Retiring Abroad still alive in the Covid era?

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column, just published, looks at the commonly held dream of many in the FIRE community (Financial Independence/Retire Early): that of geo-arbitrage and retiring outside Canada to an exotic location with a much lower cost of living. Click on the highlighted text for the full column: Has the Pandemic ended the dream of Retiring Abroad?

As I note in the piece, places like Mexico, the Far East or parts of Europe have such a relatively low cost of living that average Canadians might be able to retire early just on the strength of CPP and OAS. Add in any employer pensions and registered or unregistered savings and that would be gravy.

The column looks in particular at two locations in Mexico that are quite popular with both American and Canadian expatriates seeking nicer weather and a lower cost of living. One is Lake Chapala, the subject of a new edition of a book by regular Hub contributors Akaisha and Billy Kaderli. The book, pictured on the left, is titled The Adventurer’s Guide to Chapala Living.

“Chapala isn’t the only town/city where living in Mexico is wonderful. There are so many from which to choose,’ Akaisha told me via email, “ We believe retiring abroad is still feasible, without a doubt.”

At one point my wife and I seriously considered leaving the Land of Snow and High Taxes (aka our Home and Native Land) for Mexico. We took one trip to Chapala and nearby Ajijc, and a few years later the more inland and mountainous San Miguel de Allende, more on which below.

However, as the years went by and we neared our Findependence Day (i.e. Semi-Retirement), we concluded that there was too much crime in Mexico for our liking and that we are for the most part quite content to live in our current home in Long Branch, Ontario, just steps from Lake Ontario.

Even so, and as the MoneySense column relates in more depth, we do know a couple who actually took the plunge and sold their Toronto home to start a new life in San Miguel de Allende. Five years ago, the Hub recalled that trip and how we ran into a former Financial Post colleague of mine, Dean Cummer, and his partner.

They visited Toronto recently and I got the chance to catch up over lunch with Dean, who became one of the main sources for the MoneySense column: my editor wanted to know whether the dream of Retiring Abroad is still alive in the Covid era. Continue Reading…

Can Dynamic Pension Pools strengthen Canadians’ Retirement Income Security?

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Image courtesy National Institute on Ageing

A new report published by the National Institute on Ageing (NIA) and the Global Risk Institute (GRI) being published today aims to help overcome the $1.5-trillion Decumulation Disconnect in the Canadian Retirement Income System.

Titled Affordable Lifetime Pension Income for a Better Tomorrow, the report makes the case for how Dynamic Pension (DP) pools can strengthen retirement income security for millions of Canadian seniors. Here is the link to the full report.

The urgency is apparent when you consider that 10 million Canadian baby boomers are now entering retirement: with longer life expectancies and a greater dependency on private savings to sustain them. As the report’s authors write, “it’s more important than ever to find solutions that will help retiring Canadians turn their accumulated savings into low-cost lifetime pension income.”

Bonnie Jeanne MacDonald/Ryerson/National Institute on Aging

Lead author Dr. Bonnie-Jeanne MacDonald, Director of Financial Security Research at the NIA, says fears that retiring Canadians’ savings won’t sustain them in retirement are “legitimate …  Financial markets, inflation and health expenses are just some of the big unknowns that retirees will need to face over 10, 20, 30 or even 40 years.”

According to the report, Dynamic Pension [DP henceforth] pools have the potential to transform the Canadian retirement landscape. Their goal is simple: to help people optimize their expected lifetime retirement income while ensuring they never run out of money. In other words, gurantee that they won’t run out of money before they run out of life.

Pooling Longevity Risk

While protecting individuals from outliving their savings (i.e., longevity risk) can be prohibitively expensive, the same protection becomes affordable when spread across a large group. Pooling longevity risk allows retirees to spend their savings more confidently while they are alive, says the report.

In a DP pool, pension amounts are not guaranteed but may fluctuate from year to year. This means retirees can stay invested in capital markets and benefit from the higher expected returns.

DP pools have a risk-reward profile that is fundamentally different from current options and products available for older Canadians: such as guaranteed annuities purchased through insurance companies or individually managing and drawing down savings from personal retirement savings accounts, says another of the report’s authors, Barbara Sanders, Associate Professor at Simon Fraser University,  “Retirees who are comfortable with some investment risk can stay invested in equity markets and reap the associated rewards, which is important in today’s low-interest and high-inflation environment.” Continue Reading…

MoneySense Retired Money: Is it too late to jump aboard the Energy bandwagon?

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My latest MoneySense column is something I might better have written early in 2021, rather than late in the year. It’s about the the resurgence of the energy sector: not alternative energies like solar or wind but good old-fashioned oil (black gold), natural gas and even coal.

You can find the full column by clicking on the highlighted text: Are Energy stocks a good buy now? 

As I admit there, readers would have been better served by heeding the advice of  MoneySense colleague Dale Roberts, who was early identifying this trend a year ago when he mentioned this Canadian energy ETF back in October 2020. (iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF: XEG/TSX.)

In fact, I did buy a little of it, only to see it fall back later in 2020, and I foolishly sold for tax-loss selling purposes.  But as the column relates, I did repurchase it, as well as BMO’s Equal WeightedOil & Gas ETF (ZEO/TSX) and a few more besides.

Until this year, I was happy to pick up whatever energy plays exist in the “Core” ETF investments. Besides, most Canadians should have healthy exposure to energy just by virtue of owning standard Canadian equity ETFs or even balanced funds. After all, Vanguard’s FTSE Canada All Cap Index ETF (VCN/TSX] is 12.3% in energy, just a tad below the index’s 12.6%.

By contrast, the S&P 500 index has only a tiny 2.33% in Energy. In fact, south of the border, Energy is the smallest of the 11 sectors, which are topped by Information Technology a 27.6%.  However, Energy stocks have well outpaced the S&P500, generating a total return of 42% in 2021, as of October 1st, compared with just 18.4% for the broad index.

Performance chasing or start of multi-year bull market?

So loading up on Energy seemingly this late in the game would be a futile exercise in performance chasing, some would argue. Who knows, but personally I was persuaded by the repeated public utterances of Ninepoint’s Eric Nuttall [notably and repeatedly in the Financial Post] that this may be merely the confirmed start of a multi-year bull run in Energy. Accordingly, earlier in the year I took a modest flyer on Nutall’s NinePoint Energy ETF [NNRG/Neo exchange]. His focus is Canadian mid-cap energy stocks, although there is a small 7.8% weighting to US energy stocks. Continue Reading…

RIP Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi: author of the ground-breaking book, Flow

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Mihaly Czikszentmihalyi (YouTube.com)

Late in October, bestselling author and pyschologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi passed away in California at age 87. You can read the obituary in the Washington Post here.

Czikszentmihalyi — pronounced “chick-SENT-me-high” — was a university professor who built a mini empire around the nebulous concept of Flow. See this Wikipedia entry for more on his life and work.

Back in 2015, the Hub reviewed the original Flow as well as Creativity and Flow in 2016. He explored this further with Finding Flow: The Psychology of Engagement With Everyday Life.  It has the virtue of brevity when compared to the earlier two books on Flow: it runs just 180 pages, or 147 if you don’t count end matter.

Implications for Encore Careers

As noted in the earlier reviews, I’m intrigued by the concept of Flow as it applies to Encore Careers and life after corporate employment. As many blogs in the Hub’s Victory Lap section have pointed out, aging baby boomers still have a potentially long and creative period ahead of them that lies between the traditional career and what used to be called Retirement.

So it seems to me that if late-bloomer Boomerpreneurs are going to make a success of this new stage of life, they’d better tap into the concept of Flow. It’s all tied in with passion and mastery, which is why I went to the well one last time with Czikszentmihalyi.

He begins with a quotation from W.H. Auden: Continue Reading…

JP Morgan, RBC on post-Covid Retirement trends

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A couple of recent surveys from J.P. Morgan Asset Management and RBC shed a fair bit of light into recent Retirement trends in North America in the wake of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Summarized in the October 2021 issue of Gordon Wiebe’s The Capital Partner newsletter, here are the highlights:

First up was J.P. Morgan on August 19 in a study focused on de-risking for investors approaching retirement and about to draw down on Retirement accounts.

The study was quite comprehensive, drawing on a data base of 23 million 401(k) and IRA accounts and 31,000 Americans. 401(k)s and IRAs are similar to Canada’s RRSPs and RRIFs.

De-risking is quite common, with 75% of retirees reducing equity exposure after “rolling over” their assets from a 401(k) to an IRA. These retirees also relied in the mandatory minimum withdrawal amounts.

Of those studied, 30% received either pension or annuity income, and the median value of Retirement accounts was US$110,000. The median investable assets were roughly US$300,000 to US$350,000, with the difference coming from holdings in non-registered accounts.

Not surprisingly, the most common retirement age was between 65 and 70 and the most common age for commencing the receipt of Social Security benefits was 66. (Coincidentally, the same age Yours Truly started receiving CPP in Canada.)

The report warns that retirees who wait until the rollover date to “de-risk” or rebalance portfolios needlessly expose themselves to market volatility and potential losses: they should consider rebalancing well before the obligatory withdrawal at age 71.

The newsletter observes that 61-year-olds represent the peak year of baby boomers in Canada and cautions that if they all retire and de-risk en masse, “Canadian equity markets will likely undergo increased downward pressure and volatility. Retirees should consider re-balancing or ‘annualizing’ while markets are fully valued and prior to an increase in capital gains or interest rates.”

The report includes several interesting graphs, which you can find by clicking to the link above. The graph below is one example, which shows average spending (dotted pink line) versus average retirement income (solid green line.) RMD stands for Required Minimum Distributions for IRAs, which is the equivalent of Canada’s minimum annual RRIF withdrawals after age 71.

EXHIBIT 4: AVERAGE RETIREMENT INCOME AND SPENDING BY AGES Source: “In Data There Is Truth: Understanding How Households Actually Support Spending in Retirement,” Employee Benefit Research Institute & J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

RBC poll on pandemic impacts on Retirement and timing

Meanwhile in late August, RBC released a poll titled Retirement: Myths & Realities. The survey sampled Canadians 50 or over and found that the Covid-19 pandemic has caused some Canadians to “hit the pause button on their retirement date.” 18% say they expect to retire later than expected, especially Albertans, where 33% expect to delay it.

They are also more worried about outliving their money, with 21% of those with at least C$100,000 in investible assets expecting to outlive their savings by 10 years. That’s the most in a decade: the percentage was just 16% in 2010.

Sadly, 50% do not yet have a financial plan and only 20% have created a final plan with an advisor or financial planner.

Those near retirement are also resetting their retirement goals. Those with at least $100,000 in investable assets now estimate they will need to save $1 million on average, or $50,000 more than in 2019. 75% are falling short of their goal by almost $300,000 on average.

Those with less than $100,000 have lowered their retirement savings goal to $533,153 from $574,354 in 2019, and the savings gap is a hefty $472,994.

To bridge the shortfall, 37% of those with more than $100K plan stay in their current home and live more frugally, compared to 36% of those with under $100K. 31% and 36% respectively plan to return to paid work, 31% and 23% plan to downsize or move, and 3 and 5% respectively intend to ask a family member for financial assistance.