All posts by Jonathan Chevreau

MoneySense Retired Money: Is it too late to jump aboard the Energy bandwagon?

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My latest MoneySense column is something I might better have written early in 2021, rather than late in the year. It’s about the the resurgence of the energy sector: not alternative energies like solar or wind but good old-fashioned oil (black gold), natural gas and even coal.

You can find the full column by clicking on the highlighted text: Are Energy stocks a good buy now? 

As I admit there, readers would have been better served by heeding the advice of  MoneySense colleague Dale Roberts, who was early identifying this trend a year ago when he mentioned this Canadian energy ETF back in October 2020. (iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF: XEG/TSX.)

In fact, I did buy a little of it, only to see it fall back later in 2020, and I foolishly sold for tax-loss selling purposes.  But as the column relates, I did repurchase it, as well as BMO’s Equal WeightedOil & Gas ETF (ZEO/TSX) and a few more besides.

Until this year, I was happy to pick up whatever energy plays exist in the “Core” ETF investments. Besides, most Canadians should have healthy exposure to energy just by virtue of owning standard Canadian equity ETFs or even balanced funds. After all, Vanguard’s FTSE Canada All Cap Index ETF (VCN/TSX] is 12.3% in energy, just a tad below the index’s 12.6%.

By contrast, the S&P 500 index has only a tiny 2.33% in Energy. In fact, south of the border, Energy is the smallest of the 11 sectors, which are topped by Information Technology a 27.6%.  However, Energy stocks have well outpaced the S&P500, generating a total return of 42% in 2021, as of October 1st, compared with just 18.4% for the broad index.

Performance chasing or start of multi-year bull market?

So loading up on Energy seemingly this late in the game would be a futile exercise in performance chasing, some would argue. Who knows, but personally I was persuaded by the repeated public utterances of Ninepoint’s Eric Nuttall [notably and repeatedly in the Financial Post] that this may be merely the confirmed start of a multi-year bull run in Energy. Accordingly, earlier in the year I took a modest flyer on Nutall’s NinePoint Energy ETF [NNRG/Neo exchange]. His focus is Canadian mid-cap energy stocks, although there is a small 7.8% weighting to US energy stocks. Continue Reading…

RIP Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi: author of the ground-breaking book, Flow

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Mihaly Czikszentmihalyi (YouTube.com)

Late in October, bestselling author and pyschologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi passed away in California at age 87. You can read the obituary in the Washington Post here.

Czikszentmihalyi — pronounced “chick-SENT-me-high” — was a university professor who built a mini empire around the nebulous concept of Flow. See this Wikipedia entry for more on his life and work.

Back in 2015, the Hub reviewed the original Flow as well as Creativity and Flow in 2016. He explored this further with Finding Flow: The Psychology of Engagement With Everyday Life.  It has the virtue of brevity when compared to the earlier two books on Flow: it runs just 180 pages, or 147 if you don’t count end matter.

Implications for Encore Careers

As noted in the earlier reviews, I’m intrigued by the concept of Flow as it applies to Encore Careers and life after corporate employment. As many blogs in the Hub’s Victory Lap section have pointed out, aging baby boomers still have a potentially long and creative period ahead of them that lies between the traditional career and what used to be called Retirement.

So it seems to me that if late-bloomer Boomerpreneurs are going to make a success of this new stage of life, they’d better tap into the concept of Flow. It’s all tied in with passion and mastery, which is why I went to the well one last time with Czikszentmihalyi.

He begins with a quotation from W.H. Auden: Continue Reading…

JP Morgan, RBC on post-Covid Retirement trends

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A couple of recent surveys from J.P. Morgan Asset Management and RBC shed a fair bit of light into recent Retirement trends in North America in the wake of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Summarized in the October 2021 issue of Gordon Wiebe’s The Capital Partner newsletter, here are the highlights:

First up was J.P. Morgan on August 19 in a study focused on de-risking for investors approaching retirement and about to draw down on Retirement accounts.

The study was quite comprehensive, drawing on a data base of 23 million 401(k) and IRA accounts and 31,000 Americans. 401(k)s and IRAs are similar to Canada’s RRSPs and RRIFs.

De-risking is quite common, with 75% of retirees reducing equity exposure after “rolling over” their assets from a 401(k) to an IRA. These retirees also relied in the mandatory minimum withdrawal amounts.

Of those studied, 30% received either pension or annuity income, and the median value of Retirement accounts was US$110,000. The median investable assets were roughly US$300,000 to US$350,000, with the difference coming from holdings in non-registered accounts.

Not surprisingly, the most common retirement age was between 65 and 70 and the most common age for commencing the receipt of Social Security benefits was 66. (Coincidentally, the same age Yours Truly started receiving CPP in Canada.)

The report warns that retirees who wait until the rollover date to “de-risk” or rebalance portfolios needlessly expose themselves to market volatility and potential losses: they should consider rebalancing well before the obligatory withdrawal at age 71.

The newsletter observes that 61-year-olds represent the peak year of baby boomers in Canada and cautions that if they all retire and de-risk en masse, “Canadian equity markets will likely undergo increased downward pressure and volatility. Retirees should consider re-balancing or ‘annualizing’ while markets are fully valued and prior to an increase in capital gains or interest rates.”

The report includes several interesting graphs, which you can find by clicking to the link above. The graph below is one example, which shows average spending (dotted pink line) versus average retirement income (solid green line.) RMD stands for Required Minimum Distributions for IRAs, which is the equivalent of Canada’s minimum annual RRIF withdrawals after age 71.

EXHIBIT 4: AVERAGE RETIREMENT INCOME AND SPENDING BY AGES Source: “In Data There Is Truth: Understanding How Households Actually Support Spending in Retirement,” Employee Benefit Research Institute & J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

RBC poll on pandemic impacts on Retirement and timing

Meanwhile in late August, RBC released a poll titled Retirement: Myths & Realities. The survey sampled Canadians 50 or over and found that the Covid-19 pandemic has caused some Canadians to “hit the pause button on their retirement date.” 18% say they expect to retire later than expected, especially Albertans, where 33% expect to delay it.

They are also more worried about outliving their money, with 21% of those with at least C$100,000 in investible assets expecting to outlive their savings by 10 years. That’s the most in a decade: the percentage was just 16% in 2010.

Sadly, 50% do not yet have a financial plan and only 20% have created a final plan with an advisor or financial planner.

Those near retirement are also resetting their retirement goals. Those with at least $100,000 in investable assets now estimate they will need to save $1 million on average, or $50,000 more than in 2019. 75% are falling short of their goal by almost $300,000 on average.

Those with less than $100,000 have lowered their retirement savings goal to $533,153 from $574,354 in 2019, and the savings gap is a hefty $472,994.

To bridge the shortfall, 37% of those with more than $100K plan stay in their current home and live more frugally, compared to 36% of those with under $100K. 31% and 36% respectively plan to return to paid work, 31% and 23% plan to downsize or move, and 3 and 5% respectively intend to ask a family member for financial assistance.

 

 

Retired Money: What is the Rule of 30?

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ECW Press

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column reviews actuary Fred Vettese’s new retirement book: The Rule of 30 (ECW Press).

You can find the full column by clicking on the highlighted headline here: What’s the Rule of 30? And what does it have to do with Income and Retirement?

Never heard of the Rule of 30? Neither had I, nor Fred himself until he invented it.

In a nutshell, it’s a rule of thumb financial planners can use to guestimate how much young couples starting off on their financial journeys need to save for Retirement. Rather than flatly state something like save 10 or 12 or 15% of your gross (pre tax) income each and every year, the Rule of 30 sees retirement saving as occurring in tandem to Daycare and Mortgage Repayment.

From the get go Vettese suggests young couples allocate 30% of their gross or after-tax income to the three expenses of Retirement saving, Daycare and Mortgage paydown. However, in the early years they may save less in order to handle Daycare and the mortgage. Since daycare expenses usually fall away after a few years (depending on how many children a couple has), once it has gone you can ramp up the mortgage paydown and/or retirement savings. And if – ideally five years before retirement – the home mortgage is paid off, then couples can kick their retirement saving into overdrive by allocating a full 30% or more solely to building their nest egg.

Wealthy Barber style fictional format

In a departure from his previous books — Retirement Income for Life and The Essential Retirement Guide among them — The Rule of 30 uses the tried-and-true quasi-fictional “story” pioneered by David Chilton’s The Wealthy Barber. That road has been ploughed by many subsequent financial authors, including Yours Truly in Findependence Day. 

As Vettese told me in an interview mentioned in the column, he didn’t plan it that way initially. “I did a first chapter using that format and then realized it’s a lot easier to write this way and it’s not as dry: it’s somewhat easier to read and to write. When you get a problem, a character chimes in.”

The main characters are a couple, X and Y, and — conveniently — the neighbour next door who happens to be an actuary with time on his hands.

No doubt it would have worked either way, but Vettese’s dialogs are readable enough and he even works in a minor subplot involving the actuary and his estranged daughter.

One of the people acknowledged by Vettese at the back of the book is fellow actuary and retiree Malcolm Hamilton. In an email, Hamilton said “I have always believed that middle class Canadians who marry, buy a house and have children cannot reasonably expect to save much for retirement until after the age of 45,” Hamilton told me via email, “There just isn’t enough income to cover mortgage payments, the cost of raising children and Canada’s heavy tax burden (with child care expenses and mortgage payments generally non deductible for those with incomes that suggest they need to save.”

All in all, a useful rule of thumb for young couples setting out on family formation, home ownership and ultimately Retirement. Note that Vettese says that once you are within five years of your hoped-for Retirement age, you should strive to be mortgage free. And around 55, you should move from the Rule of 30 to using a Retirement calculator like the free one Vettese developed for Morneau Shepell: PERC, or the Personal Enhanced Retirement Calculator.

PS: I am now Investing Editor at Large for MoneySense

Alert readers who got to the bottom of the column and read the author blurb will see a slight change in my status at MoneySense. In addition to writing the monthly Retired Money column I am now also the Investing Editor at Large for the site, a fact that’s also divulged in my Twitter profile.  I will continue to publish Hub blogs every business day: so much for Retirement!

 

 

 

Semi-Retirement: the Halfway House between Employment and Full Retirement

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As those who have clicked on some of the 37 interviews featured at this week’s Canadian Financial Summit will know, there’s a lot of content to absorb.

One of those 37 talks was my chat with Kornel Szrejber for a talk titled Semi-Retirement: the Halfway House between Employment and Full Retirement.

To find it, you need to click on this link and then scroll down to my name, or whichever of the other 36 speakers you are interested in hearing. Each name is highlighted in blue and is a hyperlink to the actual interview. At the bottom of this blog you’ll find a link to Thursday’s content, including my conversation with Kornel and PWL’s Ben Felix about the MoneySense ETF All-Stars.

Similar to my MoneyShow Zoom interview earlier this week that was also about the MoneySense ETF All-Stars 2021 edition, the video with Kornel shows me in my home office: like all regular Zoomers, some of the books I have written are not too subtly displayed over my right shoulder.

New 2nd US edition of Findependence Day

Regular readers of the Hub will likely find my interview with Kornel to be somewhat familiar. We cover the topic of Findependence, which is a term I invented and introduced with the first Canadian edition of my financial novel titled Findependence Day. You can still buy the original book by clicking on the site.

Alternatively, you can click on the “Buy US edition” tab and you can find the first US edition published by Trafford, or the just-published second US edition published by Best Books Media in New York. Apart from focusing on US financial rules, the second edition also includes end-of-chapter summaries that weren’t in the original edition. It also puts more emphasis on the “Work Optional” theme.

Victory Lap

As the title of the interview with Kornel suggests, I view Semi-Retirement as a halfway house between full traditional salaried employment and the old-time Full Retirement that used to commence the moment you reached age 65. I am now three years beyond that, so am well into what Retirement guru Doug Dahmer calls the “Work Optional” phase. Another term for this is Victory Lap Retirement, which is the title of a non-fiction book I coauthored with former banker Mike Drak.

During our chat, Kornel asks me about what I’ve been up to since I left full-time employment in 2014 and how Findependence differs from traditional Retirement. As I say to friends and family, I try to work just three or four hours a day but when you’re operating a website aiming for fresh content every business day, it’s hard to really “retire” in the usual sense of the word.  It’s all about “encore” careers, although I saw a clip on Twitter yesterday that suggested that in the post-Covid world, aging baby boomers are becoming a bit disillusioned with the Encore career idea and are increasingly inclined to really slow down and smell the roses while they and close friends and family are still healthy enough to enjoy their leisure.

More on the MoneySense ETF All-Stars

The other of my presentations at the Canadian Financial Summit was a three-way chat with Kornel and PWL Capital’s Ben Felix, about the MoneySense ETF All-Stars 2021. It’s an audio-only conversation taped in the summer and you can access it through the usual podcast platforms here. Continue Reading…