Hub Blogs

Hub Blogs contains fresh contributions written by Financial Independence Hub staff or contributors that have not appeared elsewhere first, or have been modified or customized for the Hub by the original blogger. In contrast, Top Blogs shows links to the best external financial blogs around the world.

3 books I just read that Retirees DIYing their pensions need to read

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Amazon.ca

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at a must-read new book on Retirement as well as two related books on DIY stock-investing. You can read the full column by clicking on the highlighted headline: Who you gonna trust: Barry Ritholtz or Jim Cramer?

The must read and main focus of the MoneySense column is William Bengen’s A Richer Retirement: Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More. If that sounds familiar it should: Bengen’s original book on the 4% Rule is considered the bible of retirement, with his famous “SAFEMAX” guideline of 4% a year being an annual amount of withdrawals that should be “safe” for retirees to continue for a full 30 years, even after inflation. The original book,  titled Conserving Client Portfolios During Retirement, was first published in 2006.

Never mind that even Bengen considers 4.7% be a more universal SAFEMAX. The original book was aimed at financial advisors and professionals while the new one ostensibly is aimed at retail investors and retirees. I say ostensibly because I was a little disappointed with it and found the plethora of complicated charts and tables a bit much for lay investors. Still, there’s a lot of common sense there: Inflation is big long-term threat to retirees as are bear markets. Withdrawing too much from portfolios can be disastrous if you are unfortunate enough to retire just as a bear market hits and/or inflation starts to bite.

On the other hand, sticking with the old 4% rule or even the smaller amounts of 3% or even 2% advocated by some cautious souls, could result in you withdrawing less than you really need to enjoy retirement, although the tax department and any heirs might commend your caution and frugality.

How to make money in any market

Amazon.ca

While it’s rare for me to buy new hardcover books because I receive so many “free” review copies of financial books, I actually did buy A Richer Retirement as soon as it was available on Amazon. Plus, unusually, I also bought two other brand new books on the related topic of investing and stock-picking.

One was Jim Cramer’s How to make money in any market, by the sometimes revered but often maligned host of  CNBC shows Mad Money and Squawk on the Street. It’s fashionable for some financial journalists who believe in efficient markets and indexing to diss Cramer but I am not in that crowd. In fact, Cramer recommends that newcomers to investing put the first US$10,000 into an S&P500 index fund or ETF.

However, for seasoned investors and even retirees, Cramer suggests putting half a portfolio in index funds and the other half in individual stocks. Where we part company is his recommendation that the bucket of stocks be restricted to just five names, which would mean 10% in each. For my money, that’s way too concentrated and risky, even though he often brags about how he is often accosted by Nvidia Millionaires who tell him they bought that stock as soon as he announced on air that he had renamed his dog Nvidia.

How NOT to invest

Amazon.ca

Finally, regulars to this site may already have read Michael Wiener’s review of Barry Ritholtz’s How NOT to invest, which appeared here in this blog a few weeks after appearing on his Michael James on Money blog.

To be sure, those who are fond of disparaging Jim Cramer might quip that should have been the title of his own book, seeing as there are actually ETFs out there that try to profit by shorting Cramer’s picks. As of this writing, my copy has arrived but I have not yet finished reading it, as it’s a bit longer than the other two.

But based on the book blurbs and Michael’s review, I have no doubt it will be worth reading, whether for younger investors or seasoned ones and/or retirees.

Finally, while I only just received my review copy, I note that David Chilton is publishing a new edition of his classic financial novel, The Wealthy Barber, which any young person just starting to invest should acquire.  I look forward to revisiting it.

 

 

 

The Politics of Portfolio Management

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Image courtesy Pexels/Karola G.

By John De Goey, CFP, CIM

Special to Financial Independence Hub

The interplay between politics and economics has never been starker. We have an American President who is doing more to stick his nose into the affairs of those that are supposed to be at arms length than any of his predecessors ever dreamed.

Despite this, people who offer commentary on both the economy and capital markets (they are separate things) act as though what’s going on on Capitol Hill is so unremarkable that they conspicuously fail to work any acknowledgement of the dysfunction into their commentary.

Last week, I sat in on a webinar hosted by Jeff Schulze, CFA, who is managing director, head of economic and market strategy for Clearbridge Investments. In his presentation, Schulze noted that the S&P 500 is currently trading at 23 times forward earnings and that only the late 1990s saw a higher number. He added that there has been recent downward pressure on the federal funds rate and opined that the ‘one big beautiful bill’ will offer further fiscal stimulus down the road.

In a dashboard of 12 indicator variables, only one was flashing red (recession). Four were yellow (neutral) and seven were green (expansion).  He went on to opine that corporate profits don’t look recessionary. He concluded that a near-term recession is unlikely. I’m not disputing his economic evidence:  I’m simply noticing that there was not a word about political implications or developments. That silence strikes me as conspicuously odd.

There are many smart people who look closely at all manner of economic indicators who also look the other way regarding politics. As if they are not related. Why is that? They don’t talk about what’s going on Capitol Hill at all. The topic is taboo. It’s “polarizing.” Some even allege it’s beyond the purview of their mandate. I disagree.

EMH vs Active Management

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) posits that capital markets do an excellent job of digesting all available information (from all fields of endeavour) quickly and accurately. By synthesizing information into a consistent worldview, EMH implies that no one can reliably ‘beat the market’ through security selection or timing strategies.

The economic forecast offered by Clearbridge seemed predicated on the assumption that what’s going on in Washington is normal, but it also seemed predicated on market inefficiency since Schulze made multiple references to the need for active management. If the market is efficient, then it is already reliably taking the dysfunction in Washington into account. If, on the other hand, it is inefficient, then the vagaries of an unpredictable President stand out as being meaningful and should be noted. So if the conduct of the President is a meaningful consideration, why wasn’t it mentioned by a guy who implicitly rejects EMH? Continue Reading…

When is the right time for Retirees to Consider Annuities?

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Image by Arthur A on Pexels.com

Retirement planning experts suggest current market conditions may present an opportune moment for retirees to consider annuities. With potentially higher yields available in today’s interest rate environment, strategic approaches like partial annuitization and laddered purchases offer ways to enhance retirement security. Financial advisors emphasize the importance of weighing tax implications and long-term income stability before making decisions about annuities in a changing economic landscape.

 

  • Ladder Annuity Purchases to Capture Peak Rates
  • Favorable Market Creates Opportunity for Retirement Security
  • Strategic Timing for Annuities in High Rates
  • Consider Tax Implications before Rushing to Annuitize
  • Tax Strategy matters more than Current Rates
  • Lock in Higher Yields while Maintaining Diversification
  • Balance Security and Flexibility with Partial Annuitization
  • Act Now before Rate Cuts Lower Lifetime Income

Ladder Annuity Purchases to Capture Peak Rates

Through my work with United Advisor Group helping advisors serve elite clients, I’m seeing a critical window right now for partial annuitization that most people are missing. The current 5-6% immediate annuity rates are the highest we’ve seen in over a decade, but here’s what’s different from typical advice.

I’m recommending clients ladder their annuity purchases over 12-18 months rather than going all-in immediately. We’re working with carriers like Lincoln Financial where a Phoenix client recently locked in 5.4% on a $300K immediate annuity in January, then waited until rates hit 5.8% in March for another $200k portion. This staging approach captures rising rates while securing baseline income.

The sweet spot I’m seeing is 30-40% annuitization for near-retirees, not the 20% most advisors suggest. With our four-custodian structure at UAG, we’re tracking how this higher allocation actually reduces overall portfolio risk more than expected. A Scottsdale couple we work with annuitized 35% at current rates and can now be more aggressive with their remaining assets.

What makes this timing unique is the Federal Reserve’s clear signalling about holding higher rates through 2024. Unlike previous cycles where advisors played wait-and-see, the current economic indicators we track suggest these annuity rates have more staying power, making the decision timeline less pressured than typical rate environments. — Ray Gettins, Director, United Advisor Group

Favorable Market creates Opportunity for Retirement Security

Annuities aren’t flashy: but in today’s rate environment, they’re finally getting their moment.” With interest rates at multi-year highs, this is one of the most favorable environments we have seen in a long time for retirees to consider annuitizing or partially annuitizing. Higher rates mean better payout terms, especially for fixed annuities, giving retirees more predictable income in retirement. But timing is still very important. The decision to annuitize should still be in line with your personal retirement goals, risk tolerance & need for guaranteed income. Partial annuitization provides a great balance for retirees, allowing them to create a stable income stream to cover essential expenses and still have portfolios flexible enough for legacy planning and growth. It’s much more than a response to market conditions. It’s a calculated move towards peace of mind.

— Harold Wenger Jr., Partner and Wealth Manager, Kingsview Partners

Strategic Timing for Annuities in High Rates

Now might be the smartest time in 15 years to consider annuitizing.

It’s actually quite a favorable time for retirees to annuitize, partially or fully, considering the interest rates today that are at their highest levels since before the Great Financial Crisis. Higher interest rates essentially mean stronger payouts than what we have seen over the past decades. This makes them a more attractive option for those looking for a guaranteed lifetime income. Having said that, I still recommend retirees to think of annuitization the same way they think about diversification, strategically, not emotionally. While having a steady stream of income for essential expenses can provide peace of mind, I would never recommend anyone to put all their eggs in one basket.

Employing a blended approach — one that combines annuities with passive real estate investing or dividend-generating assets — can be a much smarter way to go. It’s the right time now to explore annuities as part of a broader retirement strategy. Just make sure that it aligns with your lifestyle goals, risk tolerance, and legacy planning. — Lon Welsh, Founder, Ironton Capital

Consider Tax Implications before Rushing to Annuitize

After working with retirees for 19 years through my accounting firm, I see this timing question differently than most financial advisors. The real issue isn’t just interest rates: it’s the massive tax implications that nobody talks about.

I had a client couple from North Carolina who were considering annuitizing $300K of their retirement savings when rates hit 5.8% last year. Before they pulled the trigger, we ran the numbers on their overall tax strategy. That annuity income would have pushed them into a higher bracket and made 85% of their Social Security taxable instead of 50%.

Instead, we structured a business strategy where they started a simple consulting venture based on his 40 years of manufacturing experience. Now they’re deferring some retirement income, writing off business expenses that were previously personal costs, and timing their annuitization for when they can control their tax bracket more effectively.

The current rate environment is tempting, but I’m seeing retirees lock themselves into higher lifetime tax bills. Run the tax projections first: sometimes waiting 2-3 years while implementing proper business structures saves more money than chasing today’s rates. — Courtney Epps, Owner, OTB Tax

Tax Strategy Matters more than Current Rates

I believe the decision to annuitize in today’s higher-rate environment is more complex than most retirees are told. The bigger question isn’t just the interest rate, it’s how the IRS will tax that income stream over time. Continue Reading…

Should investors be more concerned about the ongoing US Shutdown?

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By John De Goey, CFP, CIM

Special to Financial Independence Hub 

[Editor’s Note: this piece was written shortly before Friday’s meltdown of U.S. stocks following Trump’s announcement of still-higher Tariffs on China.]

One evening at midnight, as September turned to October, various elements of the U.S. government were shut down. This has happened before, most recently in 2018 under the same President, but this time, everything feels more ominous.

In fairness, markets were indifferent to the news and have even reached new highs since the announcement. My view is that this turn of events is yet another canary in the coal mine where authoritarianism is lurking just around the corner. The question for many investors is: “What does this mean for my portfolio”? So far, the answer is, “nothing at all.”

Worrisome that investors don’t seem worried

It has been said that financial markets climb a wall of worry. I have said on multiple occasions that one of my biggest worries is that people don’t seem worried: that optimism bias has led to lazy complacency. Stated differently, my perception is that there’s a degree of casual acceptance of macro-level circumstances that has taken hold among investors throughout the western world.

My concern about valuations has been reiterated on multiple occasions for many quarters, if not years. What I have not said explicitly until now is that there is a considerable political risk that is proceeding apace: concurrent with the valuation risk.

To my mind, this is a double uncertainty. The first question is when the bubble of multiple asset classes hitting all-time highs will burst. The second question is when Donald Trump will drop the mask and all pretense of adherence to democratic principles. He was elected a year ago next month.  In the nine and a half months since he has taken office, the destruction of centuries-old political norms has proceeded at a breakneck pace. Continue Reading…

Q&A with John De Goey

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John De Goey, courtesy MoneyShow

The following is a question-and-answer session conducted via email with advisor John De Goey following his recent talk at the MoneyShow in Toronto, which we reported here.  Some of the questions and answers also appeared in my recent MoneySense Retired Money column here.

Jon Chevreau, Findependence Hub:  How defensive do you think low-volatility ETFs (i.e., BMO’s, iShares, Harvest) are?

John De Goey: Let’s say the market pulls back by 25%. If you can handle that, then you don’t need a low-volatility ETF. In short, low-volatility products are more defensive than market  (cap)-weighted products, but it all depends on how investors react and behave when things go south.

Chevreau Q2.) Most of those are overweight utilities, consumer staples and healthcare stocks. Do you advocate that investors do this themselves with sector ETFs?

De Goey – I generally don’t recommend buying utilities as a stand-alone product/strategy. That said, if you already own cap-weighted products and want to be more conservative, it would likely be more tax effective to simply add utilities rather than sell cap-weighted products in order to buy low-vol products. Same net result, but less tax on the way.

Jon Chevreau, courtesy MoneySense

Chevreau Q3.)  If U.S. stocks are so richly priced, do you advocate owning a Value U.S. ETF to compensate, or simply sell down some U.S. or and add more International/Canada? Or other factor funds?

De Goey – I recommend getting out of the U.S. entirely. If you cannot do that then, at the very least, I’m worried that there’s an AI bubble much like what we saw with .com a quarter-century ago.

Chevreau Q4.) What range of asset allocation do you recommend for retirees, especially those who are middle-of-the-road and risk-averse?

De Goey: I think all portfolios should have alternatives. Pension plans like CPP, OMERS and HOOP all have over 33% in alternatives. But for MOR retail investors, I’d opt for something like 20% alternatives, 30% income, and 50% equity.

Chevreau Q5.)  Can investors and especially retirees rely on global Asset Allocation ETFs to keep them out of too many over-valued U.S. stocks?

De Goey: I wouldn’t use the word ‘rely.’ Such products will soften the blow, but right now the U.S. represents almost 2/3 of global stock market capitalization. So, if all your stocks were in a single global ETF or mutual fund with a cap-weighted mandate, you’d have massive exposure to a massively over-valued market.

Chevreau Q6.)  What about annuitizing a portion of an RRSP/RRIF? Continue Reading…