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So far, the fine wine market remains one of the few bastions of stability in an increasingly volatile investment environment. The Liv-ex 1000, the broadest measure of the global fine wine market, has returned 25.45% this year (as of 30 June).
These gains stand in stark contrast to most of the financial markets, where selloffs have hit a wide range of industry sectors, asset classes and geographies. The initial shock from the war in Ukraine has led to surging commodity and food prices, triggering the highest inflation in decades in several major economies including Canada which now stands at 8.1%.
LONG TERM RETURNS
Fine wine boasts a track record of strong growth that has resulted in positive real returns over the long-term.
Index
Month
YTD
12-month
5-year
10-year
5 year volatility*
Liv-ex 1000
0.76%
11.12%
25.45%
50.26%
92.14%
1.12%
S&P 500
-8.39%
-20.58%
-11.92%
56.20%
177.90%
4.89%
FTSE 100
-5.76%
-2.92%
1.87%
-1.96%
28.69%
3.92%
Nasdaq
-9.00%
-29.51%
-20.96%
103.72%
339.79%
5.72%
MSCI AC Asia Pacific
-6.78%
-18.18%
-24.02%
2.21%
34.80%
4.19%
Gold in ($/oz)
-1.64%
0.58%
-0.37%
42.38%
12.00%
3.72%
Bitcoin
-37.32%
-56.89%
-43.11%
703.30%
297311.94%
25.18%
Bloomberg Commodity
-10.88%
18.03%
23.81%
41.70%
-13.57%
4.39%
Source: Investing.com, Liv-ex as of June 30, 2022. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. *Volatility = 5 year standard deviation of monthly returns.
Stable
Fine wine’s year-to-date relative strength does not come as a surprise. During previous periods of volatility, such as the COVID-19 outbreak, fine wine prices experienced shorter and less severe downturns compared to equities and faster bounce backs compared to other haven assets, such as bonds.
Figure 2 – Weathering the storm
Fine wine’s relative performance during market downturns
Source: Liv-ex, investing.com. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.
This track record may be contributing to fine wine’s recent performance as more buyers, whether collectors or investors, realise fine wine’s ability to form a stable store of value.
Additionally, low fine wine supply levels are also supporting prices. Low harvest yields in 2021 and 2022 have dented production levels for leading fine wine regions, including Bordeaux, Burgundy, Champagne and California, creating fierce competition for top wines. Continue Reading…
Canadians face a lot of headwinds in this volatile investing year, including high inflation, rising interest rates, slower economic activity and geopolitical shocks. In this turbulent environment, an actively managed income strategy can help steer the way through uncertainty. Volatile markets call for a strategy that can adjust client portfolios in a timely, tactical way as market conditions shift.
Active investment management can play a key role in offering a compelling risk-reward option for investors who are looking for income, growth and overall portfolio diversification. The strategy that underlies the Franklin U.S. Monthly Income Fund is an example of an approach to seeks to give investors stability amid volatility.
“The fund has a portfolio that can make adjustments in a timely manner on your behalf,” said Rob Rocoff, Vice President, Regional Sales with Franklin Templeton Canada in Toronto. “It’s a fund that uses a flexible, balanced strategy that is capital structure agnostic and has a track record in the U.S. of over 70 years of being able to tactically adjust to volatile market conditions.”
The Franklin U.S. Monthly Income strategy aims to generate income by investing in stocks, bonds and hybrid securities, such as equity-linked notes (hybrid securities have characteristics of both stocks and bonds). The strategy’s flexible asset allocation allows it to adjust across different market cycles, including moments of high pressure, to find the most attractive investment opportunities.
The Franklin U.S. Monthly Income strategy looks throughout the capital structure for securities that offer attractive income and long-term growth potential. Top-down insights inform the investment team’s view on asset allocation, while the security selection process is driven by rigorous bottom-up fundamental research. The team focuses on investment opportunities where their fundamental views may differ from the market consensus, especially with investments in large companies.
Seeking Yield from multiple sources
As a result, the fund’s portfolio includes equities (common or preferred stocks), fixed income assets (e.g., investment grade bonds, Treasuries) or hybrids (e.g., equity-linked notes and convertibles). This mix seeks yield from multiple sources and allows for dynamic asset allocation, depending on market conditions. Continue Reading…
It’s been awhile since I reviewed any political books here on the Hub. The last time was this time a year ago when I surveyed what were then the latest books on the Trump presidency (at one point in 2021, 3 of the top 6 New York Times bestselling books were on Trump: see here).
I occasionally wade in on this topic on the grounds that investors need to be on top of this seemingly unique political situation. That’s despite the fact that when Trump first won his shock victory in 2016, markets briefly cratered, only to quickly recover.
The particular pair of mini-reviews below has no real financial angle but you can see I explicitly covered that a few years ago in a MoneySense column that evaluated the implications of the Trump presidency for the Boomers’ collective retirements: see here.
Over the long weekend, I finished reading two recently published books that some may find of interest, whose covers are illustrated on this blog. One is Thank You for Your Servitude, Mark Leibovich’s entertaining summary of all the Republican enablers who made the Trump presidency possible in the first place, and may yet facilitate a dreaded second term. The other is This Will Not Pass [Simon & Schuster) by Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns, subtitled Trump, Biden, and the Battle for America’s Future. The co-authors are both New York Times writers and CNN political analysts, neither known as MAGA-friendly outlets.
Save your money and borrow these from the library
I might add that, despite being an author myself, I generally refuse to buy any of these US political books: I either read ebooks from the Toronto Library’s excellent Libby app, or download ebooks or audio books from the paid SCRIBD service. Libby often involves waiting a few weeks or months for popular bestsellers; however, if you can read quickly, you may be able to luck into the occasional Skip the Line service, which lasts only a single week. SCRIBD sometimes has books not yet on Libby, often in audio format, and unlike the library, you can keep them beyond the normal three-week limit.
There’s been a fair bit of press and YouTube clips on both these books. Formerly with the New York Times, Leibovich is perhaps best known for his bestselling This Town, about 21st century Washington. Thank You for Your Servitude [Penguin Press, New York, 2022] is subtitled Donald Trump’s Washington and the Price of Submission. While the author admits that many of the anecdotes will be all too familiar to anyone following the daily press, he manages to provide a fresh perspective on them while simultaneously apologizing for making readers relive the worst of these moments. Many of them center around Trump’s Washington-based Trump Hotel, which is where the book begins and ends. There you meet such familiar characters as Rudy Giuliani, Reince Priebus, Kevin McCarthy, Mitch O’Connell, William Barr, Jeff Sessions, Lindsay Graham, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Kellyanne Conway and the whole sordid collection of Trump toadies and sycophants, or the so-called MAGAts.
One early chapter is entitled “The Joke,” which apparently is how even how Trump’s closest enablers seem to view his rise to the top of the political pyramid:
It would be risky, obviously, for a Republican member of Congress to declare, explicitly, that “Donald Trump is a complete ignoramus,” even though that’s what they really believed. But none of this had to be spoken because the truth of this scam, or “joke,” was fully evident inside the club …. Everyone … got the joke.
Covers Ukraine invasion but not January 6th hearings
The book is recent enough that it includes an epilogue about the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February. The book ends on a despairing note of pessimism about the prospects of anyone stopping Trump in 2024. Of course, it was published months before this summer’s high-profile January 6th hearings, nor does he spend much time addressing any of the other multiple investigations into Trump’s businesses and political shenanigans.
The following telling snippet is one of many that may not be widely known. I was struck by the revelation in the epilogue that within a day of Trump’s “Be there, will be wild” tweet promoting the January 6 rally, the cheapest room in the Trump Hotel immediately jumped from US$476 to US$1,999.
Donald Trump didn’t just inspire the Jan. 6 riot … He seems to have made money off it.
That pretty much says it all. Leibovich ends with an ominous foreshadowing of Trump’s possible triumphant return in 2024. His final sentence is “And who’s going to stop him?” A few sentences earlier, he quotes a former Republican congressman who confessed that the party’s only real plan for dealing with Trump in 2024 involved a darkly divine intervention: “We’re just waiting for him to die .. That was it, that was the plan. He was 100 percent serious.”
Can Joe Biden extract the US from its “political emergency?”
Simon & Schuster
Those who are thoroughly sick of Trump — as I am — may find This Will Not Pass more to their liking, as roughly half the content is devoted to Trump’s successor, Joe Biden. The focus is what it describes as the “political emergency in the United States: the story of how the country reached and survived a moment when carrying out the basic process of certifying an election became a mortally dangerous task.”
It recounts how the country “sort of” survived but like Leibovich, leaves readers pretty nervous about what may yet occur in the 2022 mid terms this fall and ultimately in 2024. As Martin and Burns remind us (as if we needed it!):
Donald Trump has not been banished from national life, but instead remains the dominant force in his party and is bent on purging those few Republicans who won’t bow to him … The former president’s delusions about a stolen election … have lingered with corrosive force, warping his own party and catalyzing a wave of red-state voting restrictions aimed at cracking down on election fraud that did not happen. The fantasies of a Trump restoration have only deepened since his departure from the White House.
The book is arranged in three parts: the year before the 2020 election and Trump’s mismanagement of Covid; the tumultuous months between the contested 2020 election and Inauguration Day, and everything that has transpired since:
… As President Biden attempted an acrobatic feat of leadership: pushing a liberal policy agenda of titanic ambition with the thinnest of majorities … Far from quickly erasing the Trump era, leaders in both parties have found the shadow of the last presidency has been longer and darker than they anticipated, colouring every major political decision and legislative negotiation of the Biden administration and shaping even the perceptions of American democracy overseas.
Ambitious, yes: One chapter nicely summarizes the dominant question before Biden as “How Big Can We Go?”
Unlike Servitude, This Will Not Pass was published too soon to cover much of the events of 2022. Oddly, for an American book, it closes with an observation by a Canadian, Bob Rae (at one point Canada’s ambassador to the United Nations.) He calls Trump an “authoritarian … I don’t believe the Republican Party believes in democracy.” And he warned that the threat to American democracy was far from defeated: “America,” he said, “is a very important battleground.”
They Want to Kill Americans
(Added subsequently). There’s a third and even scarier book that I only began to read the day this blog initially was published. They Want to Kill Americans by Malcolm Nance, describes Trump’s brownshirts and the ongoing assault on American democracies by Americans. Here’s a link to Goodreads’ entry on it. And here’s a Kirkus review.
Jonathan Chevreau is Chief Financial Officer of the Financial Independence Hub, author of the financial novel, Findependence Day, co-author of the non-fiction Victory Lap Retirement, and columnist and Investing Editor at Large for MoneySense.ca.
By Bilal Hasanjee, Senior Investment Strategist, Vanguard Canada
Special to the Financial Independence Hub
In the current record-breaking inflation and rising interest rate environment across all major markets, stocks and bonds have declined in values simultaneously.
As a result, many analysts and commentators have speculated on the death of the 60% stock/40% bond portfolios. But we have seen this before. Based on Vanguard’s research, balanced portfolios have proved critics wrong before and we believe they will prove them wrong, again. Here are five reasons why a 60% stock/40% bond portfolio is NOT dead.
Reason 1: Stock-bonds simultaneous decline is not long lasting
A simultaneous decline or positive correlation in stocks and bonds has typically not lasted long and the phenomenon has never occurred over a three-year span. A similar trend is visible on a 60/40 (stocks/bonds) portfolio.
Drawdowns in 60/40 portfolios have occurred more regularly than simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds; however, their frequency of occurrence also declines over longer periods. More regular occurrence is due to the far-higher volatility of stocks and their greater weight in that asset mix. One-month total returns were negative one-third of the time over the last 46 years. The one-year returns of such portfolios were negative about 14% of the time, or once every seven years or so, on average.
Figure 1
Source: Vanguard
Data reflect rolling period total returns for the periods shown and are based on underlying monthly total returns for the period from February 1976 through April 2022. The S&P 500 Index and the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index were used as proxies for stocks and bonds.
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. The performance of an index is not an exact representation of any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index.
Stock-Bonds correlation remains negative in the long term
Our study of 60-day and 24-month stock-bonds rolling correlations from 1992 to 2022 suggests that over a long-term, correlation between stocks and bonds remains negative. That said, long-term inflation is one of the determinants of correlation between the two asset classes
Figure 2: Long-term correlations expected to remain negative
Notes: Rolling correlations are calculated on total returns of the S&P 500 Index and the S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Current 10-year Index, using daily return data for the period between 1989 and May 31, 2022.
Sources: Vanguard, using data from Refinitiv, as of May 31, 2022. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
The performance of an index is not an exact representation of any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index.
Reason 2: Long-term expected returns from 60/40 are still achievable
The goal of a 60/40 portfolio is to achieve long-term annualized returns of roughly 7%. This is meant to be achieved over time and on average, and not every year. The annualized return of 60% U.S. stock and 40% U.S. bond portfolio from January 1, 1926, through December 31, 2021, was 8.8%.1 On a forward-looking basis, Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM) projects the long-term average return to be around 7% for the 60/40 portfolio, over the next 10 years. Market volatility means diversified portfolio returns will always remain uneven, comprising periods of higher or lower: and, yes, even negative returns.
The average return we expect can still be achieved if periods of negative returns (like this year) follow periods of high returns. During the three previous years (2019–2021), a 60/40 portfolio delivered an annualized 14.3% return, so losses of up to –12% for all of 2022 would just bring the four-year annualized return to 7%, back in line with historical norms.
Our forecast points to improved stocks and bond returns
On the flip side, the math of average returns suggests that periods of negative returns must be followed by years with higher-than-average returns. Indeed, with the painful market adjustments year-to-date, the return outlook for the 60/40 portfolio has improved, not declined. Driven by lower equity valuations and higher bond yields, our 10-year annualized average return outlook for the 60/40 is now higher by 1.3 percentage points than before the recent market adjustment.
Reason 3: Selling bonds in a rising rate environment is like selling low and buying high (in short, don’t try to time the market)
Chasing performance and reacting to headlines are doomed to fail as a timing strategy every time, since it amounts to buying high and selling low. Far from abandoning balanced portfolios, investors should keep their investment programs on track, adding to them in a disciplined way over time. Continue Reading…
My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at how the last two years of the Covid pandemic may have caused many older workers to find themselves suddenly retired, whether by their choice or not. You can find the full column by clicking on the highlighted text: Does it make sense to retire when we’re still in a pandemic?
Depending on when you had originally planned to retire — typically the traditional Retirement age in Canada is around 65 — the unexpected loss of Employment income may create any of several possibilities.
A major one is Semi-Retirement: a sort of half-way house between full employment and traditional full-stop Retirement. They may embrace a so-called Portfolio Career, generating multiple streams of income: employer pensions, government pensions, investment income, annuities, self-employment income; rental income, book royalties, speaking fees and the like.
Those in their early 60s may decide re-employment is not in the cards, which means a severance package may be your ticket to launching an encore career and becoming self-employed.
While self-employment may seem scary to those who spent more of their careers as salaried employees, self-employment doesn’t necessarily mean starting a business and employing others. Freelancing or consulting is typically a one-person gig; it may even just mean cobbling together several part-time jobs.
The column also addresses the possibility of downsizing to a smaller or less expensive place in the country, which many sudden retirees have done during the Covid era. Of course, the whole WorkfromHome phenomenon has shown how new technologies like Slack and Zoom make it possible to work remotely from anywhere with a reliable Internet connection. Two years into living with the pandemic, such technologies seem to have become permanent fixtures of working, whether remotely or a hybrid of commuting and telecommuting.
Those who were already near retirement and who enjoy good employer pensions and/or solid nest eggs from RRSPs, TFSAs and other savings, may decide they can get by without finding new employment or braving the waters of self-employment.
Time may be worth more than money
The column quotes financial marketer Darin Diehl, laid off at age 60 before Covid: “Even before Covid, my wife and I were thinking about whether we’d stay in our Mississauga home for the transition years into retirement, or downsize and relocate out of the city … Covid caused us to think about our options more thoroughly.” Continue Reading…
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By Atul Tiwari
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