Victory Lap

Once you achieve Financial Independence, you may choose to leave salaried employment but with decades of vibrant life ahead, it’s too soon to do nothing. The new stage of life between traditional employment and Full Retirement we call Victory Lap, or Victory Lap Retirement (also the title of a new book to be published in August 2016. You can pre-order now at VictoryLapRetirement.com). You may choose to start a business, go back to school or launch an Encore Act or Legacy Career. Perhaps you become a free agent, consultant, freelance writer or to change careers and re-enter the corporate world or government.

Behavioural Finance: We have met the Enemy and it is Us

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By Noah Solomon

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Behavioural finance is the study of the influence of psychology on the behaviour of investors. Its central theme is that investors are not always rational, have limits to their self-control, and are influenced by cognitive biases. People harbour a multitude of self-defeating behaviours that lead to self-defeating results.

In The Laws of Wealth: Psychology and the Secret to Investing Success, author Daniel Crosby states: “The fact that people are fallible is your biggest enduring advantage in the accumulation of greater wealth. The fact that you are just as fallible is the biggest impediment to that very same goal.”

Confirmation Bias: Letting the Tail wag the Dog

Confirmation bias is the tendency of people to pay close attention to information that confirms their beliefs and ignore information that contradicts it.

Most of us have a really bad habit of only paying attention to information that agrees with our existing beliefs. Our natural tendency is to listen to people who agree with us because it feels good to hear our opinions reflected to us. We also tend to let the proverbial tail wag the dog: to draw conclusions before objectively weighing the facts. We first construct hypotheses, and then subsequently look for information that supports them.

Even some of the greatest investors have fallen prey to the confirmation bias trap. In December 2012, Bill Ackman, Chief Investment Officer of Pershing Square, launched a crusade against Herbalife, a nutritional supplements company, referring to the company as a pyramid scheme and stating that its stock was worthless. After taking a $1 billion short position in Herbalife, he continued to seek supporting evidence for his original hypothesis from Herbalife customers who had poor experiences with the company.

Activist investor Carl Icahn, who had an opposing view, acquired a 26% ownership stake in the company. The epic battle that ensued between two of Wall Street’s biggest titans resulted in a major loss for Ackman. Had Ackman attempted to find potential flaws in his thesis by seeking out customers who had positive Herbalife experiences, he might have either avoided or mitigated the losses which his fund suffered.

Loss Aversion/Disposition Effect: The Pain of Losses is (Myopically) larger than the Pleasure of Gains

Loss aversion does not describe the tendency of people to try and avoid losses, which is completely rational. Rather, it refers to having an economically unbalanced desire to avoid losses at the expense of foregoing commensurate or greater gains, which can cause them to win battles yet lose wars.

Loss aversion can cause investors to refrain from selling losing positions in the hope of making their money back, thereby allowing run of the mill losses to metastasise into “there goes my house” losses.  Loss aversion can also lead to significant opportunity costs, as money gets “trapped” in underperforming investments at the expense of foregoing better opportunities.

Closely related to loss aversion is the disposition effect, which refers to a cognitive bias that causes investors to sell winning positions prematurely and irrationally stick with losing positions. When a position is rising, we get anxious to lock in our gains and sell prematurely. At the same time, people are often too slow to cut their losses on holdings which are losing money and hold on to them in the hopes that they will recover. These behaviours tend to diminish gains and exaggerate losses, thereby leading to poor overall performance.

Fear of Missing Out: There’s nothing more annoying than watching your neighbour get rich

Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) refers to feelings of anxiety or insecurity over the possibility of missing out on an event or opportunity. What is most interesting is that FOMO is an emotional reaction that pushes us to trade or invest in a less disciplined way. Rather than buy stocks when they offer the most attractive risk-to-return ratio, investors are driven to buy them to an even greater degree the less attractive they look technically. Our fear of missing out becomes greater the more the market continues to act in an irrational way.

FOMO is frustrating because it occurs when the market is doing the unexpected and we are sticking to a solid plan. From 1996 to 2000, the NASDAQ stock index exploded from 1,058 to 4,131 points. Many of these technology stocks had little or no earnings yet still commanded steep prices. Investors feared that if they didn’t get in now they would miss out. Millionaires were minted overnight until it all went wrong. The dotcom bubble burst, and trillions of dollars of investor wealth vanished as the NASDAQ plunged to under 2,000 points by the end of 2001. Few did their due diligence on these hot tech stocks to make sure they were the best long-term investments for their personal portfolio and goals. It took many years for the average investor to recover.

In his characteristically folksy yet caustic manner, Warren Buffett used the following analogy to illustrate the absurdity of FOMO:

“Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behaviour akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

The Bandwagon Effect: Making sheep look like independent thinkers

The bandwagon effect describes the tendency of investors to gain comfort doing something simply because many other people are doing it. The tendency of people to prefer doing ill-advised things that others are doing rather than act rationally in isolation is best summarized by John Maynard Keynes:

“Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.”

Whereas using the performance of others as a reference point for measuring your results mitigates the risk of underperforming your peers, it can expose you to severe losses. The widespread abandonment of reason and rationality associated with a herd mentality has historically resulted in speculative bubbles in which the crowd joins hands and runs off the cliff together. Continue Reading…

Book Shop Remix: Where would you shelve Retirement?

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By Mark Venning, ChangeRangers.com

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

 

If you slid into your virtual bookshop to look for a book on the subject of Retirement, where would you begin? A keyword search would likely begin with the phrase “books on retirement” and …

Kaboom! An explosion of titles appear. Depending on your mindset, where your thinking was at a given moment, what triggering event gave rise to a conversation, you would gravitate to where? Titles such as The New Retirementality – Redefining Retirement: New Realities for Boomer Women– How to Retire Happy, Wild, and Free – Purposeful Retirement – What Retirees Want. Only a slice of texts on an almost endless bookshelf, which began to expand after 2004.

In the year 2001, while working as a consultant at a career services firm, (aka Career Transition/Outplacement), a managing partner asked me to deliver a Retirement program. For the first time since the late 1980’s, a corporate client suddenly requested a set of workshops for their employees approaching what they prescribed as retirement age. When I looked through the thick Retirement binder with its referenced reading resources, I ached in the head after what I read.

Sparing the colourful expletives, my response to the managing partner the next day was that I needed to re-design the whole thing before I dared to set foot inside that corporate boardroom. We needed to not only be contemporary, but we also had to be futuristic, to constantly respond to changing attitudes on what I then described as later life journeys as opposed to Retirement. The trouble was it would all seem too cryptic, too ethereal in concept unless I spoke of Retirement.

In prep for the Retirement re-design, I scoured bookshelves to see what new thinking was prevailing at the time and, to my disappointment, there wasn’t much that ground breaking. Much of the material was from the mid to late 1990’s. When you walked into a bookshop, you would find these “Retirement” books in the Business section, likely under the sub shelf “Financial Planning.” The issue with many of these was that specific references became quickly time stamped “out of date.”

Scouting out the extravaganza of Retirement books

While still shelving Retirement books in the Business section, they are usually broken into two categories – Financial Planning and Lifestyle Planning, you may wander into the Careers section – Retire Retirement: Career Strategies for the Boomer Generation for example. With luck, visit Self Help (DIY retirement is a thing). One recommended book I found sits in the Christian Living section. Try fiction! Yes, there are those too; and no doubt, somewhere out there is a Boomer Retirement book club discussing the latest find.

Over my twenty years of scouting out the extravaganza of Retirement books there have been a few peaks in inspired writing and in some cases the writing, aimed at a corporate audience, advised on how organizations should be prepared to “survive the graying of the workforce” and be ready for the “looming wave of Boomer retirements.” Yet there is a trip wire here.

A funny thing happened on the road to Retirement. Where I live, in Ontario Canada, even with the provincial government prohibition of mandatory retirement (with the odd exception) in 2006 there continue to be sinister ways Retirement conversations with employees occur in the workplace. Continue Reading…

Was the F.I.R.E. movement doused by the pandemic?

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Cutthecrapinvesting: Image by Mohamed Hassan via Pixabay

By Dale Roberts

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

F.I.R.E is an acronym for Financial Independence Retire Early. It is a very popular movement that gets a lot of attention in the blogosphere and on social media. The idea is to eat excess amounts of ramen noodles, squeeze your budget until it squeals, save 90% of your income, invest like crazy in an all-stock portfolio, and then never work another day of your life after the age of 38. I’m kidding, please don’t “OK Boomer” me.

In reality, most from the F.I.R.E. movement will not “retire” early, but many may reach a wonderful form of financial independence. In 2020, was the F.I.R.E. movement doused by the pandemic?

2020 brought us a very quick and violent stock market correction. It was the most violent in history, but so was the recovery as governments and central banks came to the rescue of stock and bond markets. Looking back it feels like a blip. But in the moment it was more than scary, considering that we did not know the path of destruction that SARS-coV-2 might leave behind.

We still don’t know.

Did the F.I.R.E movement change course?

From what I read from my F.I.R.E friends (they’ll say I’m being rather presumptuous with the use of that friends description), they embraced the volatility. After all, volatility is not risk, if you can handle that risk, and you have an incredibly long time horizon. Volatility and falling stock prices are an opportunity, whether you are seeking to build that growing dividend stream or plan to one day also harvest shares to create retirement income.

In March of 2020 I asked …

Is this an incredible investment opportunity or what?

In the Globe and Mail, Brenda Bouw offered how F.I.R.E investors are managing through the pandemic. (Sorry that is paywall, but I’ll give you the important deets). That is a great piece with some good commentary, especially from advice-only planner Jason Heath.

The F.I.R.E. traps

F.I.R.E. followers need to be extra vigilant as their nest eggs need to last decades longer than those who retire in their 60s and 70s. There is the perception that the F.I.R.E. gang have less risk, because they are young. In fact the opposite is true. From Jason …

“You may need to over-save and underspend longer than you might think when you’re pursuing the F.I.R.E. movement,” says Jason Heath, an advice- and fee-only certified financial planner at Objective Financial Partners Inc. in Markham, Ont. “When you’re retiring at age 40 versus age 65, there’s so much more margin for error.”

Jason also pointed out that funds can quickly disappear because of costs associated with an extraordinary event, such as a serious injury or illness that requires long-term care or having a child with a disability.

“If you don’t budget for the unexpected, that could really compromise your early retirement plan,” he says.

Of course it is true that the F.I.R.E. folks may have the opportunity to go back to work if need be. But it’s also important to use the word “MAY.”  It’s not a given that health would permit the opportunity to work. There is no guarantee that meaningful work would be available. I hate to be a Dale Downer, but this is the reality that we should accept and recognize.

The good new is, they won’t actually “retire”

Nobody really retires early except for teachers and other public servants. So if you want to really retire early, you know where to apply for a job. You’ll need that guaranteed, defined benefit, indexed-to-inflation-for-life pension. And those may be hard to come by these days as governments are also doing the math on funding or backstopping those options.

Most will use that F.I. and ditch the R.E. And most will admit to that reality. They just want that freedom to do more of what they want in life with respect to leisure and travel and work. And that’s why I am a big fan of the movement. It is based on a wonderful end game (freedom) and it employs some more than important financial basics, behaviour and lessons.

You build wealth by living beneath your means. Here’s my personal finance book. OK, you may notice, it’s a blog post. Who needs a book? It all ain’t rocket surgery.

Everybody say FIWOOT!

Jonathan Chevreau calls it all Findependence. That’s perfect. Mark from My Own Advisor frames it nicely with his own acronym …

I prefer Financial Independence Work On Own Terms (FIWOOT) versus FIRE The Financial Independence Retire Early (FIRE).

Here’s Mark’s Weekend Reads.

Dance with the one that brought ya?

The greatest mistake within the community will likely be the commitment to an all-stock portfolio. There is that expression that you might ‘dance with the one that brought ya’. But that’s not the case when it comes to protecting your wealth and your F.I.R.E. Continue Reading…

Checking in on Vanguard’s VRIF

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Cutthecrapinvesting: Image by Cris Ramos from Pixabay

By Dale Roberts

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

In September, Vanguard’s VRIF ETF was launched. The ETF is an all-in-one retirement funding solution. It is designed to pay out 4% of the portfolio value in 12 monthly distributions. That level of income is set at the end of each calendar year, based on the year end value. After the Santa Claus rally, it looks like VRIF holders will be getting a modest raise.

Here’s my original review of the Vanguard VRIF ETF. Simple and cost effective asset allocation portfolios can (historically) work very well to provide consistent and generous retirement income. The Vanguard VRIF option does it all for you, from portfolio management to paying out that income each month. Of course, you can also create your own ETF portfolio for retirement funding.

The key message is that simple works. And fees are important. I am a big fan of financial planning at the right cost, but keep in mind that investment fees and advisory fees will reduce the amount that your investments can deliver each year. You would subtract that percentage off the top. That’s why you might consider a fee-for-service advisor. In the end they might provide that retirement funding plan that would include an investment option such as VRIF.

The VRIF payout

The initial monthly distribution for VRIF was set at .083333 cents per unit.

As per the ETF mandate the distribution will stay the same throughout the year. The amount in your pocket includes fees and any withholding taxes within the ETF assets. It’s 4% in the clear. Of course, you would (most often but depending on your tax situation) create taxes payable from receiving the income in an RRSP, RRIF or taxable account. Within your TFSA the income would be tax free.

The performance of VRIF

In addition to paying out the monthly distributions, the ETF has also increased in price by 4.5% from inception. Continue Reading…

Variable Percentage Withdrawal: Garbage In, Garbage Out

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By Michael J. Wiener
Special to the Financial Independence Hub

 

The concept of Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW) for retirement spending is simple enough: you look up your age in a table that shows what percentage of your portfolio you can spend during the year.

The tricky part is calculating the percentages in the table.  Fortunately, a group of Bogleheads did the work for us.  Unfortunately, the assumptions built into their calculations make little sense.

If we knew our future portfolio returns and knew how long we’ll live, then calculating portfolio withdrawals would be as simple as calculating mortgage payments.  For example, if your returns will beat inflation by exactly 3% each year, and your $500,000 portfolio has to last 40 more years, the PMT function in a spreadsheet tells us that you can spend $21,000 per year (rising with inflation).

Instead of expressing the withdrawals in dollars, we could say to withdraw 4.2% of the portfolio in the first year.  If the remaining $479,000 in your portfolio really does earn 3% above inflation in the first year, then the next year’s inflation-adjusted $21,000 withdrawal would be 4.26% of your portfolio.  Working this way, we can build a table of withdrawal percentages each year.

Of course, market returns aren’t predictable.  Inevitably, your return will be something other than 3% above inflation.  You’ll have to decide whether to stick to the inflation-adjusted $21,000 or use the withdrawal percentages.  If you choose the percentages, then you have to be prepared for the possibility of having to cut spending.  If markets crash during your first year of retirement, and your portfolio drops 25%, your second year of spending will be only $15,300 (plus inflation), a painful cut.

A big advantage of using the percentages is that you can’t fully deplete your portfolio early.  If instead you just blindly spend $21,000 rising with inflation each year, disappointing market returns could cause you to run out of money early.

Choosing Withdrawal Percentages

One candidate for a set of retirement withdrawal percentages is the RRIF mandatory withdrawals.  These RRIF withdrawal percentages were designed to give payments that rise with inflation as long as your portfolio returns are 3% over inflation.

Unfortunately, the RRIF percentages would have a 65-year old spending only $20,000 out of a $500,000 portfolio.  Some retirees chafe at being forced to make RRIF withdrawals, but when it comes to the most we can safely spend in a year, most retirees want higher percentages.

A group of Bogleheads calculated portfolio withdrawal percentages for portfolios with different mixes of stocks and bonds.  Most people will just use the percentages they calculated, but they do provide a spreadsheet (with 16 tabs!) that shows how they came up with the percentages.

It turns out that they just assume a particular portfolio return and choose percentages that give annual retirement spending that rises exactly with inflation.  You may wonder why this takes such a large spreadsheet.  Most of the spreadsheet is for simulating their retirement plan using historical market returns.

The main assumptions behind the VPW tables are that you’ll live to 100, stocks will beat inflation by 5%, and bonds will beat inflation by 1.9%.  These figures are average global returns from 1900 to 2018 taken from the 2019 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook.

So, as long as future stock and bond returns match historical averages, you’d be fine following the VPW percentages.  Of course, about half the time, returns were below these averages.  So, if you could jump randomly into the past to start your retirement, the odds that you’d face spending cuts over time is high.

For anyone with the misfortune to jump back to 1966, portfolio spending would have dropped by half over the first 14 years of retirement.  More likely, this retiree wouldn’t have cut spending this much and would have seriously depleted the portfolio while markets were down.

The VPW percentages have no safety margin except for your presumed ability to spend far less if it becomes necessary.

Looking to the Future

But we don’t get to leap into the past to start our retirements.  We have to plan based on unknown future market returns.  How likely are returns in the next few decades to look like the average returns from the past? Continue Reading…