Victory Lap

Once you achieve Financial Independence, you may choose to leave salaried employment but with decades of vibrant life ahead, it’s too soon to do nothing. The new stage of life between traditional employment and Full Retirement we call Victory Lap, or Victory Lap Retirement (also the title of a new book to be published in August 2016. You can pre-order now at VictoryLapRetirement.com). You may choose to start a business, go back to school or launch an Encore Act or Legacy Career. Perhaps you become a free agent, consultant, freelance writer or to change careers and re-enter the corporate world or government.

Retired Money: Time for a Newsletter Purge?

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column suggests that for retirees and semi-retirees like myself, it may be time for a newsletter purge. You can find the full column by clicking on the highlighted text here: Check your inbox: Investing newsletters can cost you more than a sub fee.

The column is a frank confession of some rather painful investment losses sustained the last three years, mostly from recent IPOs or SPACs.

When I asked myself where some of these investment “ideas” came from I realized that almost all of them came from investment newsletters published by various American stock pundits, self-proclaimed or otherwise, including two I mention below.

The worst of these is supposed EV play Lordstown [RIDE], down in my account an astounding 100%, following its recent bankruptcy. And no, I did not renew the newsletter responsible, which I have been persuaded I should not divulge here.

Credit another Letter for tipping me to such losers as Matterport (MTTR/Naqsdaq: down 83% after its recommendation), Zoom (ZM), down 80% and Coinbase (COIN), down a whopping 78%. I won’t name his newsletter as it doesn’t matter: the culprit responsible left some time in 2022, his patience exhausted long before the “Hold with strong hands” patience he recommended for his hapless readers.

When I further asked myself how it came about that I subscribed to these newsletters in the first place, I realized that well more than half were the result of email pitches and — typically — a US$49 per year offer. You know the drill: get 3 or 4 “special reports” that divulge the ticker symbols of these moonshots that are as apt to crash your portfolio as they are the hoped-for 10-baggers.

From a risk management perspective, I tend to invest far less in such speculations (for that’s what they are), compared to blue-chip individual stocks, broadly based ETFs or GICs, but those $1,000 or $1,500 per spec losses do add up.  The MoneySense column goes into some detail on the hazards of holding such losers in registered accounts, versus tax-loss selling in taxable ones.  [The tax tail often waves the investment dog in both directions.}

Stop biting on initial pitches, then stop renewing

So job one is to stop clicking on those email pitches. Second, do not renew them when they come up for it, typically after a year. Beware automatic renewals: you may have to contact the publishers directly to cancel.

A few exceptions

I don’t want to throw out the baby with the bathwater and it’s only fair to say there may be the odd exception, particularly here in conservative Canada. I have long been on the record for reading and sometimes acting on the recommendations of Patrick McKeough of The Successful Investor and his stable of newsletters like Wall Street Forecaster and Canadian Wealth Advisor. Most of Patrick’s stock picks are well-known blue chips. When he does go further afield with foreigner domestic juniors he identifies them as being riskier and suitable mostly for “aggressive” investors. Fair enough! Incidentally, Patrick kindly allows us to run an article here on the Hub roughly on a monthly basis: you can do worse than act on recommendations like this recent instalment: Use these successful investment strategies for your portfolio success.

I also respect the work of fellow Canadian Gordon Pape, who is a regular writer for the Globe & Mail. For the most part I find the Motley Fool to be decent, although I tend to focus on their free audio podcasts rather than their paid-for newsletters. At one point, in fact, I wrote for them.

Minimize media market noise

The MoneySense column also mentions some related topics, like monitoring cable TV all-news channels that also run stock quotes. We’ve looked before on the Hub about steps to take to avoid investment noise and the Fear of Missing Out (aka FOMO: currently, it’s all about AI). CFA and investment advisor Steve Lowrie, also a Hub contributor, and one who I initially met through the aforementioned Pat McKeough, captured this nicely in this blog: SPACs, NFTs and another Tech-inspired Silly Season. Continue Reading…

9 Business Leaders share best Opportunities for Wealth Accumulation

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Image by Pexels

To shed light on effective wealth-building strategies, we’ve gathered insights from nine experts in the field, including investment specialists, financial advisors, and more.

From the importance of diversifying your portfolio and investing in yourself to the consistent investment in stock indices, these professionals share their top investment opportunities and asset classes that have proven particularly effective in securing financial independence.

 

  • Diversify Your Portfolio and Invest in Yourself
  • Prioritize Exchange Traded Funds (EFTs)
  • Look into Home Ownership and 401(k) Investments
  • Make Systematic Progress Across Asset Classes
  • Generate Passive Income with a Niche Website
  • Build Wealth through Real Estate
  • Focus on Healthcare and Nutraceuticals
  • Seek Rental Property Investments
  • Be Consistent with Investment in Stock Indices

Diversify your Portfolio and Invest in Yourself

One investment opportunity that has proven particularly effective in building and securing financial independence is a diversified portfolio that includes a mix of equity, bonds, and alternative assets. 

This strategy allows for exposure to different asset classes, mitigating risk while aiming for growth. Equities provide the potential for high returns, bonds offer stability and income, and alternative assets such as real estate, commodities, or private equity can add further diversification and potentially enhance returns. 

However, it’s essential to emphasize that investing in oneself has been the best investment of all. Personal and professional development, education, and acquiring new skills have consistently yielded substantial returns over time. These investments enhance earning potential, open up new opportunities, and empower individuals to adapt to changing circumstances. — Ahmed Henane, Investment Specialist and Financial Advisor, Ameriprise Financial

Prioritize Exchange Traded Funds (EFTs)

The equity market is the single greatest wealth creator for investors. If someone has 10 years or more as their time horizon for investing, then an equity growth mutual fund or ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) is highly recommended to build wealth. 

ETFs are very similar to mutual funds. ETFs typically represent a basket of securities known as pooled investment vehicles and trade on a stock exchange like individual stocks. A growth ETF is a diversified portfolio of stocks that has capital appreciation as its primary goal, with little or no dividends. 

One such investment would be the Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG/NYSE Area). This ETF is linked to the MSCI US Prime Market Growth Index, which offers exposure to large-cap companies within the growth sector of the U.S. equity market. Investors with a longer-term horizon ought to consider the importance of growth stocks and the diversification benefits they can add to any well-balanced portfolio. — Scott Krase, Wealth Manager, Connor & Gallagher OneSource

Look into Home Ownership and 401(k) Investments

There isn’t any one asset class or investment opportunity I’d recommend over the other for the general populace. Those types of financial decisions are circumstantial and based on the needs of the client. 

Nonetheless, the two ways to “Build Wealth for Dummies” would be to purchase your home and invest in your 401(k). From a behavioral-finance perspective, the automatic contributions to these two vehicles have, more often than not, created better outcomes for clients. — Rush Imhotep, Financial Advisor, Northwestern Mutual Goodwin, Wright

Make Systematic Progress across Asset Classes

A systematic progression across multiple asset classes has been successful in developing wealth and financial freedom. A cash-generating firm provides a stable financial basis for future projects. 

Real estate investing offers passive income and property appreciation, boosting financial security. Diversifying the portfolio with equities and other assets follows, harnessing the potential for exponential growth and mitigating risk through a well-balanced mix. However, amidst this multifaceted approach, it is crucial not to overlook the most pivotal investment: oneself. 

As Warren Buffett wisely advised, “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy only when others are fearful.” Investing in self-improvement, education, and personal development enhances decision-making acumen and emotional resilience, providing the intellectual foundation to navigate the ever-evolving landscape of wealth accumulation.  — Galib A. Galib, Principal Investment Analyst

Generate Passive Income with a Niche Website

A few years back, an affiliate website was launched in the personal finance niche. The payoff? Consistent ad revenue and affiliate commissions with minimal oversight, essentially becoming a self-sustaining income stream.

Running a website is not as time-consuming as commonly believed. After the initial setup and content, it just needs occasional updates. Soon enough, it turned into a low-maintenance income source. Continue Reading…

Dividend-Payers: The Volvo of Equities

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Image from Outcome/Shutterstock

By Noah Solomon

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Crazy People is a 1990 American comedy starring Dudley Moore and Daryl Hannah. Moore plays advertising executive Emory Leeson. Leeson experiences a nervous breakdown, which causes him to design a series of “truthful” advertisements that are blunt and bawdy.

By mistake, his ads get printed and turn out to be a tremendous success. One of Leeson’s more memorable campaigns is for Volvos, which includes the tagline “Volvo — they’re boxy but they’re good.”

Dividend-paying stocks are like the Volvos of the investing world. They are not fancy or exciting, nor do they produce windfall profits over the short term. However, they have a lot going for them when you take a deeper look under the hood.

This month, I explore the historical performance of dividend-paying stocks, including the conditions under which they have tended to outperform their non-dividend-paying counterparts. Relatedly I will also discuss whether the current market environment is supportive of future outperformance.

A Caveat to the Volvo Analogy: Having your Cake and Eating it Too

The “Volvo — they’re boxy but they’re good” tagline implies a clear tradeoff: the suggestion being that one needs to sacrifice performance for reliability. However, the historical data imply that this has not been the case with dividend-paying stocks. Not only have they exhibited greater stability than their non-dividend-paying counterparts, but they have also produced higher returns, thereby providing investors with a “have your cake and eat it too” proposition.

S&P 500 Index vs. S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index (1990 – Present)

Since the beginning of 1990, the S&P 500 Index Dividend Aristocrats Index has produced an annualized total return of 11.7% vs. 10.1% for the S&P 500 Index. This difference in annualized performance has amounted to a tremendous difference in cumulative long-term returns, with the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index producing a cumulative return of 4,083% vs. a far less impressive 2,459% for the S&P 500 Index. In dollar terms, a $10 million investment in the S&P Dividend Aristocrats Index would have produced $408,334,999 in returns, which is 1.66 times more than the corresponding figure of $245,915,810 for the S&P 500 Index.

TSX Composite Index vs. TSX Dividend Aristocrats Index (2002 – Present)

The numbers for Canada tell a similar story, albeit over a shorter period due to historical data limitations for the TSX Dividend Aristocrats Index. Since 2002, the TSX Dividend Aristocrats Index has produced an annualized total return of 9.7% vs. 7.5% for the TSX Composite Index. In terms of cumulative performance, the TSX Dividend Aristocrats has produced a total return of 647.9% vs. 376.4% for the TSX Composite Index. In dollar terms, a $10 million investment in the TSX Dividend Aristocrats Index would have produced $64,790,379 in returns, which is 1.72 times more than the corresponding figure of $37,636,301 for the TSX Composite Index.

As an aside, the tremendous difference from 1990 to the present in the 2,459% cumulative return for the S&P 500 Index and that of 1,120% for the TSX Composite Index is largely attributable to the former’s far larger weighting in technology stocks. Between 1990 and 2010, the two markets were neck and neck, with the S&P 500 delivering a total return of 457% vs. 453% for the TSX. Since then, the S&P 500 went on to crush its northern neighbour, with a total return of 359% vs. 120%. During the same period, the mega-cap tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 knocked the lights out, returning 675%.

Tech stocks, and in particular mega-caps, have experienced tremendous earnings growth and trade at premium valuations. Whether their rates of growth continue, or premium multiples will persist, is beyond the scope of this commentary. That being said, there is no guarantee that these trends will persist, and relatedly whether the U.S. stocks will continue to outperform their Canadian counterparts.

Nice to Have in Strong Markets and Essential in Others

Dividends have historically been an integral part of equity market returns. Going back to 1990, a full 52.2% of the total return of the S&P 500 Index since 1990 can be attributed to the power of compounding reinvested dividends. On a relative basis, Canadian dividends have been even more prominent than U.S. ones, with reinvested dividends responsible for an astounding 63.3% of the total returns of the TSX Composite index.

Although dividends’ contributions to total market returns have been substantial over the past several decades, this contribution has tended to vary substantially over shorter sub-periods. As the table below demonstrates, dividends tend to play a smaller role in times of strong price appreciation. By contrast, during periods when capital gains have been muted, dividends play a far more substantial role in overall returns.

Contribution of Dividends to Total Returns: Rolling 12-Month Periods (1990 – Present)

Taking all 12-month rolling periods since 1990 in which the S&P 500 experienced price appreciation, dividends on average accounted for 18.8% of total returns. However, in periods where prices rose by 7% or more, dividends were responsible for only 13.6% of the total return pie vs. 38.9% when prices rose between 0% and 7%.

In Canada, the relative importance of dividends has also varied with capital gains. In all rolling 12-month periods since 1990 in which the TSX Composite Index experienced price appreciation, dividends were on average responsible for 25% of total returns. In those periods where prices rose by more than 7%, dividends’ share of total returns was only 15.6% as compared to 52.1% when prices rose between 0% and 7%. Continue Reading…

Were you nervous before you Retired?

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By Fritz Gilbert, TheRetirementManifesto

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

“Were you nervous before you retired?”

I was recently asked that question, and it brought back a flood of memories from my “near-retirement” days.

I suspect most of us were nervous before we retired, but it’s not something we talk about.  I believe there’s value in sharing the psychological journey in those final days before retirement.  For folks nearing retirement, it’s reassuring to know they’re not alone.

Recently I had the opportunity to talk about it with a reader who is on the cusp of retirement. We had a wide-ranging discussion and the conversation became the trigger for today’s post.  I suspect many of the questions he asked are also on the minds of other readers who are approaching retirement.

This one’s for you, Mike.  Thanks for letting me share our discussion with the readers of this blog.  I trust they’ll all benefit from our discussion…

 

Were you nervous before you Retired?

That’s one of the questions a reader, Mike, asked me on a recent phone call.  Mike’s a month away from retirement and reached out to me a few weeks ago.  I typically decline reader requests for phone calls (unfortunately, a downside of writing a blog with a large following).  If I said yes to every request, I’d be spending far too much of my time helping folks on a one-on-one basis, time that could otherwise be spent writing and reaching thousands of people with the same effort. It’s a “scalability” thing, and I trust you understand.

However…there was something about Mike.

His initial email hit a chord with me.  Here’s what he said:

Good morning Fritz,

Have heard you on several podcasts and just finished your latest discussion with Jason Parker.  I will be retiring in January and your point about helping others hit a cord.  I would love the opportunity to speak with you about your blog.  I’m currently a financial advisor and feel there is a huge need for financial literacy for just about everyone.  As a former teacher, my passion is teaching/sharing.  Would like to understand better how you got started with your blog, what are some of the watch outs, and any other insights you could provide.

Thanks for your consideration and congratulations on living your best life!

What caught my attention?  The fact that he didn’t ask a single financial question and was focused on helping others. He had some ideas about teaching/sharing and he was considering starting a blog.  I appreciate readers applying the lessons I’m sharing in their lives and searching for Purpose in retirement.  I also had a bit more free time than I usually do, so I agreed to a phone call.

Following are some of the highlights of our discussion, in no particular order.  I trust you’ll find them of interest.

how do I retire

Questions From A Soon To Be Retiree

Should I start a Blog In Retirement?

My first reaction to any question that says “Should I start…” is to say yes.  It’s critical, especially in early retirement, to foster your creative curiosity and try anything that interests you.  Many won’t “stick,” but you’ll likely find a few that do.  Once you’ve found one or two, you’re on your way to a great retirement.

Mike has a passion for teaching and is exploring various avenues to reach others.  I strongly encourage anyone who has an interest in starting a blog to give it a try.  7 years ago, I started this blog on a whim.  I’m 100% self-taught and technically inept.  It’s easy to start a blog these days, with Bluehost and WordPress both designed for folks who have never built a website.  Starting this blog is one of the best things I’ve ever done and has become a Purpose of mine in retirement. I hope it works out as well for others who are considering it.

That said, it’s important to consider your motives.  If you’re doing it to make money, I suspect you’ll fail.  For 3 years, I wrote every week without making a dime and only started adding those annoying ads when I retired.  I get some complaints about them but believe I shouldn’t have to incur costs when there’s an option of generating some revenue for my “work.” As blogs grow, the costs increase (Mailchimp costs me $220/month based on my ~13k subscribers), and I felt it was time to at least cover my costs.  Making money has never been my motive, and it shouldn’t be yours.  Even now, after 7 years, the income from this blog basically pays my health insurance.  Nice to have, but not enough to change our life. Unless you’re in the 0.1%, you won’t get rich writing a blog. Continue Reading…

How to keep your business solvent

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Image courtesy BDO Canada

By Matthew Marchand

Special to Financial Independence Hub

More Canadian businesses are failing this year.

In the second quarter of 2023, the Canadian Association of Insolvency and Restructuring Professionals (CAIRP) noted that there were 1,090 business insolvencies — an increase of 36.9% compared to the same period in last year. It was also the highest volume since 2014.

There are two main reasons why this is occurring.

First, the combination of rising interest rates and high debt levels has resulted in slower consumer demand and increased debt servicing costs for both businesses and consumers. The prime rate has risen 475 basis points since early 2022 and now sits at 7.2%.

Second, the loss of government financial aid plus the need to repay a portion of the aid received — along with tightening credit conditions — are making it more challenging to obtain new financing or to refinance existing debt.

During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, government financial aid helped limit insolvencies during those challenging times. What we’re seeing now is a normalization after an abnormal period.

It should also be noted that many businesses were beginning to experience financial difficulties prior to the pandemic and the financial aid acted as a buoy to some degree. We’ve seen many instances of businesses being unprofitable prior to the pandemic that became profitable during the pandemic, with much or all the profits being derived from government financial aid.

Now that the financial aid is no longer available and may need to be repaid in the future (depending on the support received), businesses are feeling the challenges of this economic reality.

Ways businesses can survive

Many businesses may think a wind-down of operations is the only option, but that’s not the case. In fact, there are other options:

  • A restructuring or compromise of debt (payments to creditors accepted as a settlement of the debts)
  • Turnaround initiatives, such as lease disclaimers, labour force reductions or the sale of non-core assets

For businesses that are facing financial challenges now, they should expect interest rates will remain elevated for the foreseeable future. While the Bank of Canada left the overnight rate unchanged at 5% in September, it says it “remains concerned about the persistence of underlying inflationary pressures, and is prepared to increase the policy interest rate further if needed.”

Your organization should update its business plans and financial projections accordingly. If your business doesn’t have a detailed cash flow projection, make one.

You should also conduct a stress test on your financial projections to determine potential financial scenarios and what proactive efforts may need to be taken to avoid worst case outcomes. For example, if sales fall 10% or 15%, how will it affect the financial performance of the business? Will the business be able to meet its debt servicing obligations and other critical payments as they become due, and if so, for how long? Continue Reading…