Victory Lap

Once you achieve Financial Independence, you may choose to leave salaried employment but with decades of vibrant life ahead, it’s too soon to do nothing. The new stage of life between traditional employment and Full Retirement we call Victory Lap, or Victory Lap Retirement (also the title of a new book to be published in August 2016. You can pre-order now at VictoryLapRetirement.com). You may choose to start a business, go back to school or launch an Encore Act or Legacy Career. Perhaps you become a free agent, consultant, freelance writer or to change careers and re-enter the corporate world or government.

The Case for Bonds

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Outcome Metric Asset Management

By Noah Solomon

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Historically, investors have held bonds to diversify and mitigate the volatility of their portfolios. Conventional portfolios have sufficient allocations to low-volatility bonds to weather periodic bear markets in stocks. During the tech-wreck of 2000-02, the global financial crisis of 2007, and the Covid-crash of early 2020, bonds not only held up well relative to stocks, but actually produced gains, mitigating the pain investors experienced from large declines in stocks.

Over the past few decades, bonds have not only provided ample protection from bear markets in equities but have also provided reasonable returns for the privilege. During the 40 years from 1982 to 2020, 10-year U.S. Treasuries produced an average annualized real return of 4.71%.

The Ugly Truth

By any measure, the bond market’s one-two punch of healthy returns and portfolio insurance over the past several decades has been impressive. However, this experience has been highly anomalous from a long-term historical perspective.

The 4.71% annualized real return of 10-year U.S. Treasuries over the 40 years from 1981 to 2020 compares favorably to the corresponding return of only 1.36% for the 80 years beginning in 1941. Their returns over the past four decades look even more out of place when compared to -1.89% annualized real return for the 40 years from 1941 to 1980.

Bonds can also be less stable than stocks and just as vulnerable to extreme losses. Since 1928, the maximum peak-trough loss in real terms of 10-year U.S. Treasuries was -54.3% vs. -56.5% for stocks. Over the same time period, the worst rolling 10-year annualized real return for 10-year Treasuries was -4.7% as compared to -4.06% for the S&P 500 Index.

Bond bear markets can also last longer than those of stocks. Investors who bought Treasuries at the end of 1940 had to wait 51 years before they broke even in real terms. By contrast, the lengthiest period in which stocks remained underwater was the 13 years following the peak of the technology bubble in late 1999.

The current near-zero yields on bonds are likely to be an excellent indicator of what investors can anticipate for future returns. John Bogle, founder of The Vanguard Group, pointed out that since 1926, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes explains 92% of the annualized returns investors would have earned had they held the notes to maturity and reinvested the interest payments at prevailing rates.

The perils of investing in bonds are well summarized by legendary investor Warren Buffett, who in his 2012 annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders warned:

They are among the most dangerous of assets. Over the past century these instruments have destroyed the purchasing power of investors in many countries, even as these holders continued to receive timely payments of interest and principal …. Right now, bonds should come with a warning label.

History also cautions against relying on bonds to mitigate portfolio losses when stocks decline. Notwithstanding that bonds provided much needed gains during the tech-wreck of 2000-2002, the global financial crisis of 2008, and the Covid-crash of 2020, stocks and bonds have been positively correlated in 55% of the 93 years from 1928 to 2020.

Putting history aside, the simple fact is that with current short-term rates at zero and 10-year Treasuries yielding 1.5%, it will be difficult for bonds to provide the same degree of protection (if any) in the next bear market. The math just doesn’t work!

From the beginning of 1928 through the end of last year, the annualized real return of the S&P 500 Index was 6.64%, as compared to 1.94% for 10-year Treasuries. Had you invested $1 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 1928, by the end of 2020 it would have had an inflation-adjusted value of $396.03 vs. only $5.96 had you invested the same $1 in 10-year Treasuries. Put simply, the opportunity cost of maintaining a permanent allocation to bonds cannot be overstated.

Does this mean Bond Investors are Irrational?

The massive drag on portfolio returns over the long-term caused by a permanent allocation to bonds does not necessarily imply that investors who hold them are irrational.

Many investors may not have a sufficiently long investment horizon to weather crushing losses in bear markets and/or may be emotionally incapable of enduring large losses that can occur in portfolios that are heavily weighted in stocks. Continue Reading…

Can Dynamic Pension Pools strengthen Canadians’ Retirement Income Security?

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Image courtesy National Institute on Ageing

A new report published by the National Institute on Ageing (NIA) and the Global Risk Institute (GRI) being published today aims to help overcome the $1.5-trillion Decumulation Disconnect in the Canadian Retirement Income System.

Titled Affordable Lifetime Pension Income for a Better Tomorrow, the report makes the case for how Dynamic Pension (DP) pools can strengthen retirement income security for millions of Canadian seniors. Here is the link to the full report.

The urgency is apparent when you consider that 10 million Canadian baby boomers are now entering retirement: with longer life expectancies and a greater dependency on private savings to sustain them. As the report’s authors write, “it’s more important than ever to find solutions that will help retiring Canadians turn their accumulated savings into low-cost lifetime pension income.”

Bonnie Jeanne MacDonald/Ryerson/National Institute on Aging

Lead author Dr. Bonnie-Jeanne MacDonald, Director of Financial Security Research at the NIA, says fears that retiring Canadians’ savings won’t sustain them in retirement are “legitimate …  Financial markets, inflation and health expenses are just some of the big unknowns that retirees will need to face over 10, 20, 30 or even 40 years.”

According to the report, Dynamic Pension [DP henceforth] pools have the potential to transform the Canadian retirement landscape. Their goal is simple: to help people optimize their expected lifetime retirement income while ensuring they never run out of money. In other words, gurantee that they won’t run out of money before they run out of life.

Pooling Longevity Risk

While protecting individuals from outliving their savings (i.e., longevity risk) can be prohibitively expensive, the same protection becomes affordable when spread across a large group. Pooling longevity risk allows retirees to spend their savings more confidently while they are alive, says the report.

In a DP pool, pension amounts are not guaranteed but may fluctuate from year to year. This means retirees can stay invested in capital markets and benefit from the higher expected returns.

DP pools have a risk-reward profile that is fundamentally different from current options and products available for older Canadians: such as guaranteed annuities purchased through insurance companies or individually managing and drawing down savings from personal retirement savings accounts, says another of the report’s authors, Barbara Sanders, Associate Professor at Simon Fraser University,  “Retirees who are comfortable with some investment risk can stay invested in equity markets and reap the associated rewards, which is important in today’s low-interest and high-inflation environment.” Continue Reading…

The six phases of financial independence [Revisited]

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By Mark Seed, myownadvisor

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

I’ve recently updated this post to include more links to related content. I hope you enjoy it. 

The term “financial independence” has many meanings to many people.

To some, it means not working at all.

To others, financial independence covers all needs and many wants.

To others still, it means the ability to work on your own terms.

Where do I stand on this subject?

This post will tell you in my six phases to financial independence.

Retirement should not be the goal, financial independence should be

Is retirement your goal?

To stop working altogether?

While I think that’s fine I feel the traditional model of retirement is outdated and quite frankly, not very useful.

As humans, even our lizard brains are smart enough to know we need a sense of purpose to feel fulfilled.  Working for decades, saving money for decades, only to come to an abrupt end of any working career might work for some people but it’s not something I aspire to do.

With people living longer, and more diverse needs of our society expanding, the opportunities to contribute and give back are growing as well. To that end, I never really aspire to fully “retire” – cease to work.

Benefits of financial independence (FI)

In the coming years, I hope to realize my desired level of financial independence.

We believe the realization of FI will bring about some key benefits:

  1. The opportunity to regain more control of our most valuable commodity: time.
  2. Enhanced opportunities to learn and grow.
  3. Spend extra money on things that add value to your life, like experiences or entrepreneurship.

Whether it’s establishing a three-day work week, spending more time as a painter, snowboarder, or photographer, or whatever you desire – financial independence delivers a dose of freedom that’s hard to come by otherwise.

More succinctly: financial independence funds time for passions.

FI concepts explained elsewhere

There are many takes on what FI means to others.

There is no right or wrong folks – only models and various assumptions at play.

For kicks, here are some select examples I found from authors and bloggers I follow.

  • JL Collins, author of The Simple Path to Wealth, popularized the concept of “F-you money”. This is not necessarily financially independent large sums of money but rather, enough money to buy a modest level of time and freedom for something else. I suspect that money threshold varies for everyone.
  • Various bloggers subscribe to a “4% rule”* whereby you might be able to live off your investments for ~ 30 years, increasing your portfolio withdraws with the rate of inflation.

Recall the rule:

*Based on research conducted by certified financial planner William Bengen who looked at various stock market returns and investment scenarios over many decades. The “rule” states that if you begin by withdrawing 4% of your nest egg’s value during your first year of retirement, assuming a 50/50 equity/bond asset mix, and then adjust subsequent withdrawals for inflation, you’ll avoid running out of money for 30 years. Bengen’s math noted you can always withdraw more than 4% of your portfolio in your retirement years however doing so dramatically increases your chances of exhausting your capital sooner than later.

In some ways, the 4% rule remains a decent rule of thumb.

Are there levels of FI?

For some bloggers, the answer is “yes”:

  • Half FI – saved up 50% of your end goal (e.g., $500,000 of $1M).
  • Lean FI – saved up >50% of your end goal; income that pays for life’s essentials like food, shelter and clothing (but nothing else is covered).
  • Flex FI – saved up closer to 80% of your end goal (e.g., $800,000 of $1M). This provides financial flexibility to cover most retirement spending including some discretionary expenses.
  • Financial Independence (FI) – saved up 100% of your end goal, you have ~ 25 times your annual expenses saved up whereby you could withdraw 4% (or more in good markets) for 30+ years (i.e., the 4% rule).
  • Fat FI – saved up at or > 120% of your end goal (in this case $1.2M for this example), such that your annual withdrawal rate could be closer to 3% (vs. 4%) therefore making your retirement spending plan almost bulletproof.

There is this concept about “Slow FI” that I like from The Fioneers. The concept of “Slow FI” arose because, using the Fioneers’ wording while “there were many positive things that could come with a decision to pursue FIRE, but I still felt that some aspects of it were at odds with my desire to live my best life now (YOLO).”

They went on to state, because “our physical health is not guaranteed, and we could irreparably damage our mental health if we don’t attend to it.”

Well said.

My six phases of financial independence

With a similar line of thinking related to Slow FI, since we all have only one life to live, we should try and embrace happiness in everything we do today and not wait until “retirement” to find it.

After reviewing these ideas above, among others, I thought it would be good to share what I believe are the six key phases of any FI journey – including my own.

Phase 1 – FI awakening. This is where there is an awareness or at least an initial desire to achieve FI even if you don’t know exactly how or when you might get there.

FI awakening might consider self-reflection questions or thoughts like the following:

  • I would love to retire early or retire eventually…
  • I can never seem to get off this credit card treadmill…
  • I wish I had some extra money to travel…
  • Wouldn’t it be nice to buy X guilt-free?

(I had my awakening just before I decided to become My Own Advisor, triggered by the financial crisis of 2008-2009.)

Phase 2 – FI understanding. This is the phase where people are getting themselves organized; they start to diligently educate themselves on what their personal FI journey might be.

In this phase, they might set goals or get a better handle on what goes into their financial plan. Even if your plan is not perfect, it’s a start.

They might start asking some deeper questions like:

  • Why is money important to me?
  • What is my money for?
  • How do I know I’m doing it right?

I would say it took me until my mid-30s to get my financial life in order through more financial education and improved financial literacy. It was a process that took a couple of years although I’m always continuously learning and improving. I don’t pretend to know it all.) Continue Reading…

Wealth and Happiness, Part 1: The importance of managing and using your money wisely

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By Warren MacKenzie, for Canadian Moneysaver

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Retirees should remember that money only has value to the extent that it can be used to increase happiness. Unfortunately, some retirees who already have sufficient wealth may miss an opportunity because they mistakenly believe that greater wealth leads to greater happiness. In this three part series we discuss the relationship between money and happiness.

In his book, The Art of Happiness, the Dalai Lama says, “The purpose of life is Happiness” Aristotle has said, “Happiness is the meaning and the purpose of life, the whole aim and end of human existence.”

Wealthy individuals have absolutely no reason to feel guilty for using their wealth to maximize
their happiness. Whether rich or poor, going to a job we hate, or to the fridge for a snack, the reason we do something is always the same: we do what we do because we believe we’ll be happier by doing it. In this regard, rich and poor people are alike.

… one big difference between a poor person and a rich person is that the poor person believes that his or her problems will disappear with more money. Wealthy people know that this is untrue.

The Importance of both Managing and using your money wisely

The main focus of the financial services industry is to increase the size of investment portfolios. However, in many cases investors would be happier if, in addition to having a larger investment portfolio, they also had a better understanding of the relationship between wealth and happiness so they get to enjoy the pleasure that comes from using their money wisely.

Don’t mistake joyful events for a Happy Life

We all want a happy life so it’s important to understand the difference between a joyful event and true happiness. Examples of joyful events include buying your first new car, weddings, purchase of one’s first home, or a spectacular vacation. But we’re lucky if we experience a few joyful occasions each year. For a happy life we also have to be able to experience happiness as we participate in the routine activities that take up most of our days.

Regardless of our level of wealth, we all spend most of our days doing routine activities such as watching the news, checking emails, or speaking to family and friends. For a happy life we need to find happiness during these routine activities. The secret is to live in the present moment, to focus intently on our activities, and by so doing we may find happiness as we do the things we need to do each day.

Unconditional happiness is when you’re so absorbed in what you’re doing that you temporarily forget about who you are or how the time is passing by. You’re not thinking about yourself and instead you’re 100% focused on what you’re doing. You may be working or watching your favorite TV program, or you’re focused on a friend or spouse. And since you’re not thinking about yourself you have no wants or unfulfilled desires, financial or otherwise, which are the only source of unhappiness.

Unconditional happiness is also known as ‘living in the moment’ or being ‘in the zone’ or a ‘flow state’. As an example, imagine you’re watching your favorite TV comedy show and it’s the funniest show you’ve ever seen. You’re laughing almost hysterically and you’re thinking of nothing except the TV show and you’re unaware of the time passing. Now you’re living in the moment! Now you’re experiencing unconditional happiness.

In the next moment, your mind kicks into gear and you start thinking, and wishing your friend was here to enjoy the show. Now the spell is broken and you’ve lost the moment of unconditional happiness. You have an idea of yourself as a friend and you wish your best friend was there to share this experience. Now you’re no longer living in the moment, instead you’re conscious of yourself and your unfulfilled desire for your friend to be with you.

We all have the same opportunity for moments of unconditional happiness and our experience is the same regardless of the size of our income or investment portfolio.

Conditional happiness is when we’re happy because of something that you’ve acquired, or some experience you’ve enjoyed. These external events might include receiving an unexpected income tax refund, enjoying a new home, when our investment portfolio increases in value, or as our candidate wins the election.

When it comes to conditional happiness, wealthy individuals have the potential to acquire more material goods and experience more travel and adventures. Therefore, in this area, they have an advantage over less wealthy people.

It’s also interesting to note that happiness research shows that, in terms of conditional happiness, there is greater long term enjoyment when we spend money on experiences such as a cruise or climbing a mountain than spending the same amount on new toys or material goods.

Recognizing opportunities for Happiness by knowing when it’s as good as it gets

Regardless of one’s wealth, similar activities usually give about the same amount of pleasure. For example, if you enjoy a cup of coffee in the morning, you should know that no amount of wealth will increase the enjoyment of your morning coffee. Continue Reading…

RIP Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi: author of the ground-breaking book, Flow

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Mihaly Czikszentmihalyi (YouTube.com)

Late in October, bestselling author and pyschologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi passed away in California at age 87. You can read the obituary in the Washington Post here.

Czikszentmihalyi — pronounced “chick-SENT-me-high” — was a university professor who built a mini empire around the nebulous concept of Flow. See this Wikipedia entry for more on his life and work.

Back in 2015, the Hub reviewed the original Flow as well as Creativity and Flow in 2016. He explored this further with Finding Flow: The Psychology of Engagement With Everyday Life.  It has the virtue of brevity when compared to the earlier two books on Flow: it runs just 180 pages, or 147 if you don’t count end matter.

Implications for Encore Careers

As noted in the earlier reviews, I’m intrigued by the concept of Flow as it applies to Encore Careers and life after corporate employment. As many blogs in the Hub’s Victory Lap section have pointed out, aging baby boomers still have a potentially long and creative period ahead of them that lies between the traditional career and what used to be called Retirement.

So it seems to me that if late-bloomer Boomerpreneurs are going to make a success of this new stage of life, they’d better tap into the concept of Flow. It’s all tied in with passion and mastery, which is why I went to the well one last time with Czikszentmihalyi.

He begins with a quotation from W.H. Auden: Continue Reading…