Decumulate & Downsize

Most of your investing life you and your adviser (if you have one) are focused on wealth accumulation. But, we tend to forget, eventually the whole idea of this long process of delayed gratification is to actually spend this money! That’s decumulation as opposed to wealth accumulation. This stage may also involve downsizing from larger homes to smaller ones or condos, moving to the country or otherwise simplifying your life and jettisoning possessions that may tie you down.

The six phases of financial independence [Revisited]

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By Mark Seed, myownadvisor

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

I’ve recently updated this post to include more links to related content. I hope you enjoy it. 

The term “financial independence” has many meanings to many people.

To some, it means not working at all.

To others, financial independence covers all needs and many wants.

To others still, it means the ability to work on your own terms.

Where do I stand on this subject?

This post will tell you in my six phases to financial independence.

Retirement should not be the goal, financial independence should be

Is retirement your goal?

To stop working altogether?

While I think that’s fine I feel the traditional model of retirement is outdated and quite frankly, not very useful.

As humans, even our lizard brains are smart enough to know we need a sense of purpose to feel fulfilled.  Working for decades, saving money for decades, only to come to an abrupt end of any working career might work for some people but it’s not something I aspire to do.

With people living longer, and more diverse needs of our society expanding, the opportunities to contribute and give back are growing as well. To that end, I never really aspire to fully “retire” – cease to work.

Benefits of financial independence (FI)

In the coming years, I hope to realize my desired level of financial independence.

We believe the realization of FI will bring about some key benefits:

  1. The opportunity to regain more control of our most valuable commodity: time.
  2. Enhanced opportunities to learn and grow.
  3. Spend extra money on things that add value to your life, like experiences or entrepreneurship.

Whether it’s establishing a three-day work week, spending more time as a painter, snowboarder, or photographer, or whatever you desire – financial independence delivers a dose of freedom that’s hard to come by otherwise.

More succinctly: financial independence funds time for passions.

FI concepts explained elsewhere

There are many takes on what FI means to others.

There is no right or wrong folks – only models and various assumptions at play.

For kicks, here are some select examples I found from authors and bloggers I follow.

  • JL Collins, author of The Simple Path to Wealth, popularized the concept of “F-you money”. This is not necessarily financially independent large sums of money but rather, enough money to buy a modest level of time and freedom for something else. I suspect that money threshold varies for everyone.
  • Various bloggers subscribe to a “4% rule”* whereby you might be able to live off your investments for ~ 30 years, increasing your portfolio withdraws with the rate of inflation.

Recall the rule:

*Based on research conducted by certified financial planner William Bengen who looked at various stock market returns and investment scenarios over many decades. The “rule” states that if you begin by withdrawing 4% of your nest egg’s value during your first year of retirement, assuming a 50/50 equity/bond asset mix, and then adjust subsequent withdrawals for inflation, you’ll avoid running out of money for 30 years. Bengen’s math noted you can always withdraw more than 4% of your portfolio in your retirement years however doing so dramatically increases your chances of exhausting your capital sooner than later.

In some ways, the 4% rule remains a decent rule of thumb.

Are there levels of FI?

For some bloggers, the answer is “yes”:

  • Half FI – saved up 50% of your end goal (e.g., $500,000 of $1M).
  • Lean FI – saved up >50% of your end goal; income that pays for life’s essentials like food, shelter and clothing (but nothing else is covered).
  • Flex FI – saved up closer to 80% of your end goal (e.g., $800,000 of $1M). This provides financial flexibility to cover most retirement spending including some discretionary expenses.
  • Financial Independence (FI) – saved up 100% of your end goal, you have ~ 25 times your annual expenses saved up whereby you could withdraw 4% (or more in good markets) for 30+ years (i.e., the 4% rule).
  • Fat FI – saved up at or > 120% of your end goal (in this case $1.2M for this example), such that your annual withdrawal rate could be closer to 3% (vs. 4%) therefore making your retirement spending plan almost bulletproof.

There is this concept about “Slow FI” that I like from The Fioneers. The concept of “Slow FI” arose because, using the Fioneers’ wording while “there were many positive things that could come with a decision to pursue FIRE, but I still felt that some aspects of it were at odds with my desire to live my best life now (YOLO).”

They went on to state, because “our physical health is not guaranteed, and we could irreparably damage our mental health if we don’t attend to it.”

Well said.

My six phases of financial independence

With a similar line of thinking related to Slow FI, since we all have only one life to live, we should try and embrace happiness in everything we do today and not wait until “retirement” to find it.

After reviewing these ideas above, among others, I thought it would be good to share what I believe are the six key phases of any FI journey – including my own.

Phase 1 – FI awakening. This is where there is an awareness or at least an initial desire to achieve FI even if you don’t know exactly how or when you might get there.

FI awakening might consider self-reflection questions or thoughts like the following:

  • I would love to retire early or retire eventually…
  • I can never seem to get off this credit card treadmill…
  • I wish I had some extra money to travel…
  • Wouldn’t it be nice to buy X guilt-free?

(I had my awakening just before I decided to become My Own Advisor, triggered by the financial crisis of 2008-2009.)

Phase 2 – FI understanding. This is the phase where people are getting themselves organized; they start to diligently educate themselves on what their personal FI journey might be.

In this phase, they might set goals or get a better handle on what goes into their financial plan. Even if your plan is not perfect, it’s a start.

They might start asking some deeper questions like:

  • Why is money important to me?
  • What is my money for?
  • How do I know I’m doing it right?

I would say it took me until my mid-30s to get my financial life in order through more financial education and improved financial literacy. It was a process that took a couple of years although I’m always continuously learning and improving. I don’t pretend to know it all.) Continue Reading…

How much is your Home Country Bias costing you?

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By Dale Roberts, cutthecrapinvesting

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Investors around the globe are known to invest ‘too much’ of their portfolio in their home country. It is called a home bias. Canadian investors are guilty of that home bias. Many estimates suggest that Canadians hold about 60% of their portfolio assets in Canada.

Meanwhile Canadian stock markets represent only about 3% of the global total. That home bias increases portfolio concentration risk (in one country and in just a few sectors). There has also been a cost; lower returns due to the underperformance of the Canadian market vs the U.S. market and at times the International developed markets. It is an important consideration. What is the cost or your Canadian home bias?

As a backgrounder, in 2019 I suggested that you say goodbye to your Canadian home bias.

I recently posed the question on Twitter:

Please feel free to jump on that tweet as well and offer your home bias. Don’t be shy, we are all guilty, for the most part. If you read through that thread you’ll see that investors offered that they were largely overweight Canada. Most are holding 50% to 70% Canadian stocks.

From the table in that tweet, you can see the drastic underperformance of Canadian stocks vs U.S. stocks over the last 3-, 5-, 10-years or more.

Canadian vs U.S. stocks

And here’s the returns comparison in chart form. The charts and tables are courtesy of Portfolio Visualizer.

 

And the returns over various time frames, in table format.

For the above comparison, we use the TSX 60 ETF, ticker XIU that you’ll find suggested for core Canadian stocks on the ETF Model Portfolio page.

It appears that there may have been no home bias opportunity cost if you had been invested from the year 2000. Keep in mind that is a static start date measuring the investments (with dividend reinvestment) from the year 2000. The picture will change when we start adding monies ($1,000 per month) on a regular basis.

There is then a meaningful outperformance for the U.S. stocks.

Incredibly, the U.S. stock portfolio generated 46% more money to create retirement income. The TWRR stands for time weighted returns. MWRR refers to the money weighted returns, taking into account the effect of the regular contributions.

The above chart simply shows the outperformance of U.S. stocks vs Canadian stocks. That’s not to suggest that an investor should go all-in on U.S. stocks — though U.S. investors are also known to suffer from an extreme case of investor home bias.

We should not forget the lost decade for U.S. stocks. That was a period when U.S. stocks delivered no real return (inflation adjusted) for a decade or more. And that period begins at the start date for our above charts.

The home bias is of consideration for Canadians, Americans and investors around the globe.

What’s the right mix?

I don’t think you have to be perfect in this regard. And perhaps there is no perfect geographic allocation. But we certainly want a nice mix of Canadian, U.S. and International stocks. We’ll usually add bonds as well when we enter the retirement risk zone, and also in retirement.

U.S. markets certainly fill the holes of the Canadian stock market. And the U.S. multi-nationals that dominate the S&P 500 do offer significant international exposure. That said, an investor should seek greater diversification by way of international developed and developing nations outside of North America.

In the Advanced Spud (couch potato portfolio) section for MoneySense, I offered that investors might seek equal representation from developed and developing markets. There are favourable growth patterns and favourable demographics within the developing markets. As they say: demographics is destiny.

As always, this is not advice, but ideas for consideration.

Global stocks vs U.S. stocks

Here’s global stocks (the rest of the developed world) vs the U.S. market from 1996.

We see global stocks outperforming towards the end of the financial crisis (2008-2009) and then the U.S. market takes over.

We can also see the drastic difference in returns with regular investments. The U.S. stock market and U. S. companies continue to be global leaders with incredible growth prospects. You can’t blame investors for wanting to overweight the U.S. market.

The global cap weighted index

Many portfolio managers would suggest that the most passive investment approach would be to follow the global cap weighting index. That simply takes into account the value of each stock market relative to the total global markets. The stock markets with greater value receive a greater weight.

Here’s the current weighting by way of Vanguard’s (U.S. dollar) Global ETF – VT.

Within that global mix Canada is less than 3%

The U.S. market dominates the global markets. It has largely earned that position by way of earnings and revenue growth, but keep in mind that the global cap weighting method will reward momentum (and hence emotion and unbridled enthusiasm). That momentum ‘got it wrong’ in the late 1990s for U.S. stocks. Is the enthusiasm for U.S. stocks misplaced in 2021? Perhaps partially ‘wrong’? Continue Reading…

Will your Nest Egg last if you Retire today?

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By Michael J. Wiener

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

If you’re thinking of retiring today on your own savings rather than a guaranteed pension, how do you factor in the possibility of a stock market crash?  If you’re like many people, you just hope that stocks will keep ticking along with at least average returns.  However, this isn’t the way I thought about timing my own retirement.

I retired in mid 2017.  At the time, stock prices were high, so I assumed that the day after retiring, the stock market would drop about 25% or so, and then it would produce slightly below average returns thereafter.  By some people’s estimations, I over-saved, but I didn’t want to end up running out of money in my 70s and be forced to find work at a tiny fraction of my former pay.

What actually happened in the 4+ years since I retired was the opposite of a stock market crash.  My stocks have risen a total of 60% (11.5% compounded annually when measured in Canadian dollars).  If I had known what was going to happen, I could have retired much sooner.  But I didn’t know, so I have no regrets.  It’s better to have too much than too little.

The dilemma is worse today than a few years ago

If you want to retire today, you face an even worse dilemma than I did because stock prices are much higher than they were when I retired.  If I were retiring today, I’d factor in at least a 40% drop in stock prices the day after I left my job.  This isn’t a prediction; it just represents the possibility that stock prices could return to more normal levels in the coming years. Continue Reading…

Short and Steady wins the race: The case for Short-term bonds

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Franklin Templeton/Getty Images

By Adrienne Young, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Director of Credit Research, Franklin Bissett Investment Management

(Sponsor Content)

The phrase “hunt for yield” is by now a well-worn cliché among fixed income investors. Persistently low yields have led many investors to take on additional risk, and some have considered abandoning fixed income altogether.

We think this is a mistake. Even amid fluctuating yields, inflation jitters and pandemic-driven economic upheaval, fixed income can help maintain stability and preserve capital: if you know where to look.

Why Short-term now

For increasing numbers of investors, the short end of the yield curve is the place to be in the current environment. Short-term rates reflect central bank policy actions. Since the pandemic first took hold early in 2020, central banks have taken extraordinary measures to keep liquidity pumping into the marketplace, all without raising rates. Both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve have so far left their overnight lending rates unchanged and have indicated their intent to continue along this path well into next year, and possibly longer. This predictability has stabilized, or anchored, short-term rates. In contrast, longer maturities have been prone to volatility as the stop-and-go nature of the pandemic has influenced economic reopening, inflation expectations and financial markets.

Franklin Bissett Short Duration Bond Fund is active in short-term maturities, with an average duration of 2-3 years. About 30% of the portfolio is held in federal and provincial bonds; most of the remaining 70% is invested in investment-grade corporate bonds.

Beyond stability, investments need to make money for investors. In this fund, duration and corporate credit are important sources for generating returns. Historically, the fund has provided investors with better returns than the FTSE Canada Short Term Bond Index1  or money market funds, and with comparatively little volatility.

In It for the Duration

Duration is a measure of a bond’s sensitivity to interest rate movements. Imagine the yield curve as a diving board, with the front end of the curve, where short-term rates reside, anchored to the platform. Like a diver’s body weight, pandemic-driven economic forces have placed increasing pressure further out along the curve. The greatest movement ― expressed as volatility ― has been at the long end, especially in 30-year government bonds. Currently, the fund has no exposure to these bonds.

Cushioned by Corporates

Corporate debt provides a cushion against interest rate volatility, and a portfolio that includes carefully selected corporate securities as well as government debt can therefore be a bit more protective. In addition, the spread between corporate and government bonds can provide excess returns.

We believe it is not unreasonable to anticipate stronger Canadian economic and corporate fundamentals in 2021 and 2022, as well as continued demand for bonds from yield-hungry international investors. These conditions support a continuation of the current trend of a slow grind tighter in spreads, with higher-risk (BBB-rated) credits outperforming safer (A and AA-rated) credits.

Credit Quality is Fundamental

In keeping with Franklin Bissett’s active management style, in-house fundamental credit analysis is a key element of our investment process for the fund. Unless we are amply compensated for both credit and liquidity risk (particularly in the growing BBB space), at this stage of the economic cycle we prefer higher-quality credit. We look for strong balance sheets, good management teams, excellent liquidity, clear business strategy and larger, more liquid issues. Continue Reading…

JP Morgan, RBC on post-Covid Retirement trends

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A couple of recent surveys from J.P. Morgan Asset Management and RBC shed a fair bit of light into recent Retirement trends in North America in the wake of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Summarized in the October 2021 issue of Gordon Wiebe’s The Capital Partner newsletter, here are the highlights:

First up was J.P. Morgan on August 19 in a study focused on de-risking for investors approaching retirement and about to draw down on Retirement accounts.

The study was quite comprehensive, drawing on a data base of 23 million 401(k) and IRA accounts and 31,000 Americans. 401(k)s and IRAs are similar to Canada’s RRSPs and RRIFs.

De-risking is quite common, with 75% of retirees reducing equity exposure after “rolling over” their assets from a 401(k) to an IRA. These retirees also relied in the mandatory minimum withdrawal amounts.

Of those studied, 30% received either pension or annuity income, and the median value of Retirement accounts was US$110,000. The median investable assets were roughly US$300,000 to US$350,000, with the difference coming from holdings in non-registered accounts.

Not surprisingly, the most common retirement age was between 65 and 70 and the most common age for commencing the receipt of Social Security benefits was 66. (Coincidentally, the same age Yours Truly started receiving CPP in Canada.)

The report warns that retirees who wait until the rollover date to “de-risk” or rebalance portfolios needlessly expose themselves to market volatility and potential losses: they should consider rebalancing well before the obligatory withdrawal at age 71.

The newsletter observes that 61-year-olds represent the peak year of baby boomers in Canada and cautions that if they all retire and de-risk en masse, “Canadian equity markets will likely undergo increased downward pressure and volatility. Retirees should consider re-balancing or ‘annualizing’ while markets are fully valued and prior to an increase in capital gains or interest rates.”

The report includes several interesting graphs, which you can find by clicking to the link above. The graph below is one example, which shows average spending (dotted pink line) versus average retirement income (solid green line.) RMD stands for Required Minimum Distributions for IRAs, which is the equivalent of Canada’s minimum annual RRIF withdrawals after age 71.

EXHIBIT 4: AVERAGE RETIREMENT INCOME AND SPENDING BY AGES Source: “In Data There Is Truth: Understanding How Households Actually Support Spending in Retirement,” Employee Benefit Research Institute & J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

RBC poll on pandemic impacts on Retirement and timing

Meanwhile in late August, RBC released a poll titled Retirement: Myths & Realities. The survey sampled Canadians 50 or over and found that the Covid-19 pandemic has caused some Canadians to “hit the pause button on their retirement date.” 18% say they expect to retire later than expected, especially Albertans, where 33% expect to delay it.

They are also more worried about outliving their money, with 21% of those with at least C$100,000 in investible assets expecting to outlive their savings by 10 years. That’s the most in a decade: the percentage was just 16% in 2010.

Sadly, 50% do not yet have a financial plan and only 20% have created a final plan with an advisor or financial planner.

Those near retirement are also resetting their retirement goals. Those with at least $100,000 in investable assets now estimate they will need to save $1 million on average, or $50,000 more than in 2019. 75% are falling short of their goal by almost $300,000 on average.

Those with less than $100,000 have lowered their retirement savings goal to $533,153 from $574,354 in 2019, and the savings gap is a hefty $472,994.

To bridge the shortfall, 37% of those with more than $100K plan stay in their current home and live more frugally, compared to 36% of those with under $100K. 31% and 36% respectively plan to return to paid work, 31% and 23% plan to downsize or move, and 3 and 5% respectively intend to ask a family member for financial assistance.