Most of your investing life you and your adviser (if you have one) are focused on wealth accumulation. But, we tend to forget, eventually the whole idea of this long process of delayed gratification is to actually spend this money! That’s decumulation as opposed to wealth accumulation. This stage may also involve downsizing from larger homes to smaller ones or condos, moving to the country or otherwise simplifying your life and jettisoning possessions that may tie you down.
The trigger for this post was some recent reading on vacation in Belize.
Image courtesy Mark Seed/myownadvisor
Our morning view from the villa in Belize, March 2026.
With retirement just over a month away for me (with my wife already retired since 2025), I’ve been reading a bit more on this subject – more specifically, what might be an optimal asset allocation to enter retirement with – if there is one!?
I examine some options and reference some literature in today’s post, concluding with my own plan good, bad or indifferent.
First, a primer:
Asset allocation is the mix in your portfolio amongst different asset classes — primarily stocks, bonds, and cash for most — to balance risk and reward based on an individual’s goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon.
It is a central feature to portfolio management that helps minimize volatility and align investments to an investor’s personal long-term financial objectives.
That said, asset allocation can change over time, over an investor’s lifecycle and it probably should: including entering Retirement. Consider the following options:
Option #1 – Use a Constant Equity Asset Allocation
One of the simplest strategies to enter retirement with might be using a single, all-in-one, asset allocation ETF across your registered accounts (i.e., RRSP/RRIF, LIRA/LIF) – and continue to maintain that fund for years on end.
Consider something like a “VBAL or XBAL or ZBAL and chill” approach in a 60% equities and 40% fixed income mix. The idea here is you simply sell off “BAL” units over time to fund your lifestyle at a modest withdrawal rate of 4-5% per year.
I know a few DIY investors that do this, very successfully.
Selling off the capital you’ve accumulated is absolutely normal and fine and largely intended: why you saved money for retirement in the first place.
The challenge with this approach becomes what withdrawal rate to sell off at.
A withdrawal rate lower than 3-4% is likely too low over many years: your portfolio will just continue to grow and you are likely underspending in retirement.
A withdrawal rate in the range of 4-5% is probably just fine.
A withdrawal rate higher than 5-6% could put you at risk of outliving your money.
Simple solutions are great but eventually in retirement you need to get more tactical about what your portfolio can really deliver.
I’ll link to how I can help later on…
Option #2 – Use an Age-Based Equity Asset Allocation
Unlike option #1, this one is about using your age as an anchor.
Traditional retirement income planning looks like this:
Source: For illustrative purposes only. T. Rowe Price, August 2025.
This implies the following:
As you accumulate assets, the portfolio is heavily weighted towards equities. As we know by now, equities deliver higher volatility associated with stocks relative to fixed income but that’s the price you pay or have to stomach for long-term gains.
As you age, get closer to retirement or start retirement, traditional thinking is you might follow an “age-matches your bond or fixed income” allocation formula. Traditional wisdom also says as retirement continues, the portfolio should glide-down in equities to be more conservative: with less time on your side to recover from bad market cycles.
More conventional thinking turns the tables on this below in option #3.
Option #3 – Use a Rising Equity Asset Allocation
If traditional thinking was about lower equites as you age, a rising-equity glide path is the opposite: more equities as you age throughout retirement.
Because: investing doesn’t end when you retire.
A rising-equity glidepath has demonstrated that a portfolio that starts out conservative and becomes more aggressive throughout retirement can deliver a few key benefits:
it can reduce the probability of long-term failure starting out with secure retirement spending, since
higher fixed income is available to deliver the meaningful income desired by retirees by avoiding selling any equities at all during any market dips early in retirement, such that,
by naturally increasing equity exposure over time you will earn greater capital appreciation in the latter, aging years of retirement, helping to combat inflation with any increased life expectancy.
The rising-equity approach works well since if bad returns occur early in retirement (say in the first few years) the portfolio might otherwise be prematurely depleted by equity withdrawals.
So, lower up-front allocations to equities leave retirees less susceptible to a series of bad market returns for a few years.
Here are two (2) key things to keep in mind when it comes to asset allocation in retirement, at least what I think about:
1. What do you need the money for, and when?
Saving for retirement is different than saving for a single expenditure like a Belize vacation: a one-time event. Figuring out what your annual retirement spend will forever be essential to income planning.
I’ve envisioned and therefore created a Retirement Income Map for my wife and I to forecast our first five (5) years of retirement-spending needs. Your spending may be different. That’s OK. I would recommend you figure it out though. Continue Reading…
Spending from retirement savings, or decumulation, in a way that maximizes what you have left to spend after taxes is surprisingly complex. I’ve done extensive simulations of various strategies for my situation, including strategies that change over time, to find what works best for me. Here I describe how I’m managing my RRSP in retirement, but it’s important to remember that it may or may not work well for you depending on your particular circumstances.
Looking for the fully optimal financial strategy is futile. I ran my simulations and chose a simple enough strategy that worked well across a wide range of investment outcomes. The only reason for changing my strategy is if something happens that is far outside my expectations. Those who constantly seek perfection waste their time and hurt their outcomes with constant tinkering.
Our portfolio and goals
My wife and I have RRSPs, TFSAs, and non-registered accounts. I prefer not to discuss exact amounts, but broadly speaking, our combined RRSPs are larger than our combined non-registered accounts, which are larger than our combined TFSAs. In addition to the exact sizes of these accounts, two other figures that are significant for simulations are our unrealized capital gains in the non-registered accounts and our deferred capital losses from previous years.
My wife and I have roughly the same net worth. Although we consider all our assets to be owned by both of us, CRA doesn’t see it that way. We spent decades carefully choosing whose money to spend each year so that we’d have close to the same net worth now.
Our goal is to maximize the amount we can safely spend each year, rising with inflation, for the rest of our lives. We have no interest in scrimping now just so we can live rich when we’re much older. Some might even choose to spend more in their 50s and 60s than they will spend later, but I can’t see any logic in living poor early on just to be rich later.
The main tax challenge we face is high taxes and possibly OAS clawbacks on forced RRIF withdrawals after we turn 72. These taxes will be even higher after one of us passes away, and higher still after the second passes away. The remedy here is to make modest RRSP/RRIF withdrawals in the years before we turn 72. The goal is to make lightly taxed RRSP/RRIF withdrawals early rather than heavily taxed withdrawals later. This gap in tax rates has to be large enough to overcome the value of continuing to defer taxes.
This is where the simulations help. At one extreme, we could be spending entirely from our TFSAs to keep our incomes very low. My simulations show that this “collect the GST rebate” strategy is not optimal for us (nor do I find it palatable). At the other extreme, winding down our RRSPs quickly is far from optimal as well. Something in between is best.
Our decumulation strategy
My simulations tell me that we’re best to target a particular income level each year. Note that our income is not the same thing as how much we spend. The amounts we spend from non-registered accounts create only modest declared income for taxes. By adjusting how much we spend from each type of account, we can target different amounts for how much we spend and how much we declare on our income taxes. Continue Reading…
A month ago, I wrote about how the cycles pointed out by Kuznets, Kondratieff, and Minsky, combined with the writings of Joseph Schumpeter seemed to be coming together at the same time. Now that the war in Iran is nearly a month old, it seems the match has been lit that will set the frightening confluence ablaze. It sure looks like we’re in a credit bubble that is beginning to burst.
The challenge when writing about major developments is to sound calm and purposeful when the natural inclination might be to be more animated. How to get people to take urgent action without coming across as an over-the-top doomsayer?
To begin, I need to stress that I do not see myself as a pessimist. I’ve been speaking to college students throughout southern Ontario for the past few months and when I tell them about something I call Bullshift (the optimism bias fomented by the financial services industry), they often ask if I’m not being biased and overly gloomy. I respond both with evidence and by conceding that everyone has biases, so their allegations against me, while not incorrect, are nonetheless likely to be overstated. My view is that better wealth decisions are made using facts, critical thinking and a dash of skepticism regarding the finance industry’s motives.
If Iran war lingers on, credit markets will be stressed
There are multiple indicators that are now showing credit markets in a state of high stress. The longer the war in Iran persists, the worse the situation is likely to become. As such, here are a few things you could do immediately to reduce your exposure to credit:
1.) If you have not already done so, build an emergency fund. Many people use the equity in their home for this. The caveat here is that real estate prices are likely to drop in the short term, as well, so be careful. Where possible, consider setting aside money in a high-yield savings account for emergencies. When you’re financially cushioned, you’re less likely to rely on more punitive alternatives when money is tight. Continue Reading…
My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at the Iran conflict that erupted suddenly late in February: you can find the full column here: How Retirees should respond to the Iran Crisis.
On Tuesday, the day after Trump TACO’d over his threat to attack Iran’s oil infrastructure (a 5-day reprieve that calmed stock markets at least for the week ending March 27th) Findependence Hub ran a blog that collected input from 14 financial advisors and business owners based largely in the United States. Those sources were collected via a partnership with long-time contributor Featured.com, which works with Linked In to select input. You can find the resulting column here: Financial Experts and Business Owners on what if any moves Retirees should consider if Iran War drags on.
You can get the gist of the messages those experts sent by quickly scrolling down through an admittedly long blog and reading the subheadings highlighted in Blue in the original post. Below I append my favourites, some of which I flagged on social media. If you find the headline summaries intriguing, you’ll find the accompanying observations useful, if not actionable:
Avoid Knee-jerk Liquidation
This is more of a rebalance-and-defend moment than a reason to overhaul the portfolio
Put Capital Preservation over Aggressive Growth
Seek Robust diversification across asset classes and sectors
Rebalance toward defense, yes. Blow up your entire strategy? No.
Make sure existing Allocation is suitably Defensive and Liquid
Don’t over-rotate into a single ‘safe’ bet that can whipsaw when the narrative changes
Remain diversified enough to absorb uncertainty
Reduce volatile individual Growth Names but maintain Diversified Index Funds
Move from Sector Rotation to Structural Resilience
Canadian perspective, with CUSMA renewal looming
The MoneySense column focuses more on the Canadian situation, with input from Toronto-based advisors like John De Goey, Matthew Ardrey and Steve Lowrie, all of which should be familiar to readers of this site and the Retired Money column.
See also a recent blog on Stagflation penned by Dale Roberts of the Retirement Club and cutthecrap investing. Among his many suggestions, the most valuable may be his emphasis on maintaining an “All-Weather Portfolio” catering to all four possible economic quadrants: Inflationary Growth, Disinflationary Growth, Stagflation and Deflation/Recession. Continue Reading…
Since we last polled financial experts and business owners about the prospects for investing throughout 2026, the surprise war in Iran late in February has decidedly upset the apple cart.
These experts were gathered with the assistance of Featured.com, which has been supplying Findependence Hub with quality content for several years. It has changed its procedure so editors like myself can request input on particular topics we think will interest our readership. The sources are all on LinkedIn, as you can see by clicking on their profiles below.
Here’s how we posed the question about how retired or almost-retired clients might approach their portfolios in light of the Iran conflict:
What defensive strategies do you suggest for retirement-age clients concerned that the Iran war will drag on long enough to impact their nest eggs? Defensive ETFs, gold, utilities or what? Any major shift in Asset Allocation?
Below are the 14 responses that caught my attention, but so many were coming in that I wanted to publish this blog before events overtook the observations and recommendations. I am also doing a followup Retired Money column for MoneySense.ca that will likely run in the next week, which focuses more on Canadian input from domestic experts. This site will run a “throw” to that column once it appears.
The events of the past weekend (March 21 – March 22nd) are typical of the chaos and uncertainty that abound under a rogue American president. Typically, the weekend began with a threat to bomb Iran’s power plants if they didn’t re-open the Strait of Hormuz in 48 hours.
That likely ruined the weekend for many investors but also typical, just hours before U.S. markets opened Monday, Trump provided a 5-day reprieve, causing stocks to surge and oil to fall back to more acceptable prices. As this was everywhere online and in broadcast media yesterday, and will be the main topic in Tuesday’s papers, I won’t recap further, beyond this observation:
This is of course another instance of the so-called TACO Trade: for Trump Always Chickens Out. Unless of course the next time he doesn’t.
So on with our perspective from U.S. business owners and financial experts, keeping in mind that these were submitted before this weekend.
“Protect purchasing power and smooth volatility while still allowing the portfolio to grow over time.”
For retirement age clients worried that a prolonged conflict could affect markets, most advisors focus less on drastic changes and more on defensive diversification and income stability. The goal is protecting capital and reducing volatility rather than chasing returns.
Here are a few commonly recommended strategies:
1. Increase exposure to defensive sectors
Sectors that provide essential services tend to hold up better during geopolitical or economic stress. These include utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples because people still need electricity, medicine, and basic goods regardless of the economy. ETFs tracking these sectors are often used as defensive holdings since they tend to have lower volatility and consistent dividends.
2. Add a modest allocation to gold
Gold has historically acted as a “safe haven” during geopolitical crises and financial instability. Many retirement portfolio strategies suggest holding around 5 per cent to 15 per cent in gold or gold ETFs as a hedge against market stress, inflation, or currency risk.
3. Maintain or increase high-quality bonds
Government bonds and investment grade bonds often act as a buffer when equities become volatile. Defensive retirement strategies typically include high quality bonds and dividend paying assets to stabilize portfolio income and reduce drawdowns.
4. Use defensive ETFs rather than individual stocks
Broad ETFs that track utilities, healthcare, real estate, and gold are often used to diversify risk. For example, defensive portfolios sometimes include sector ETFs tied to utilities or healthcare alongside treasury and gold exposure to hedge against market shocks.
5. Avoid major asset allocation shifts driven by headlines
Even during geopolitical tension, most advisors caution against dramatic portfolio changes. The focus is usually on gradual rebalancing, ensuring the portfolio is aligned with the investor’s risk tolerance and time horizon rather than reacting to short term events.
Bottom line: For retirees concerned about geopolitical risk, the typical approach is not a complete overhaul but a defensive tilt:
Maintain diversified equity exposure
Add defensive sectors
Keep a strong bond allocation
Consider a modest gold position
Focus on income-producing assets
This kind of structure helps protect purchasing power and smooth volatility while still allowing the portfolio to grow over time. — Omer Malik, CEO, ORM Systems
“Avoid Knee-jerk Liquidation.”
As an attorney who has guided clients through Desert Storm, 9/11, and the Great Recession, I move immediately to suppress the urge to panic. War is tragic for humanity, but historically, the stock market treats it as a temporary injunction rather than a permanent dismissal. The worst financial crime you can commit right now is a “knee-jerk liquidation.”
Selling your entire portfolio because of a headline is how you turn a temporary paper loss into a permanent reduction in your standard of living. History shows that while markets jitter at the sound of cannons, they often rally once the uncertainty resolves. Therefore, we do not make major shifts in Asset Allocation based on fear; we make minor tactical adjustments based on risk management.
For defensive strategies, I advise a pivot toward the “Boring Sector.” This means Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP). Regardless of what happens in the Strait of Hormuz, people still need to turn on the lights, brush their teeth, and wash their clothes. These sectors are the “tenured professors” of the market: they aren’t exciting, but they have reliable cash flow and pay dividends that can cushion the blow of a downturn. They act as a legal defense against volatility.
Regarding Gold, view it not as an investment, but as a “geo-political insurance policy.” Allocating 5% to 10% to a gold ETF (like GLD) or physical bullion is prudent. It creates a “hedge” because gold often moves inversely to the dollar and panic. However, do not go “all in.” Gold generates no cash flow; it just sits there looking pretty. It is the airbag, not the engine.
Finally, consider the specific nature of this conflict: Energy. Iran is a major energy player. If the conflict drags on, oil prices will likely spike. Holding a diversified Energy ETF (XLE) acts as a natural hedge for your personal budget. If you are paying more at the gas pump, you might as well be earning dividends from the oil companies to offset the pain. Combine this with short-term US Treasuries (SGOV or SHV), which are currently paying around 5% risk-free. This is your “dry powder.” It keeps your capital safe and liquid, allowing you to sleep at night while the world argues. The verdict? Stay diversified, embrace the boring, and turn off the news. — Lyle Solomon, Principal Attorney, Oak View Law Group
If you are worried a prolonged Iran war could affect your nest egg, I recommend focusing on securing retirement income and preserving short-term assets rather than chasing tactical bets like gold or sector ETFs.
Use a bucket approach to hold stable, low-volatility assets to cover several years of withdrawals while keeping a growth allocation for longer-term needs. Shift the portion of your portfolio needed soon toward preservation and lower volatility investments as you enter retirement.
Strengthen diversified income sources such as Social Security, pensions, and annuity income to reduce sequence-of-return risk. Pay attention to asset location so taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-free accounts are positioned to minimize taxes when you withdraw.
Finally, adopt a flexible withdrawal plan with guardrails so spending can be adjusted if markets or geopolitics worsen, instead of making a major permanent allocation shift based on one event. — Clint Haynes, Financial Planner, NextGen Wealth
Put Capital Preservation over Aggressive Growth
For retirement-age investors, the current conflict in Iran highlights the importance of capital preservation over aggressive growth. A prudent approach involves making modest, 5-20% tactical shifts into defensive assets like gold and short-term Treasuries, which provide a necessary hedge against geopolitical spikes and energy-driven inflation.
By prioritizing liquidity and stability now, retirees can cushion their nest eggs against immediate market shocks without abandoning their long-term recovery potential.
On the equity side, focusing on “all-weather” sectors like Utilities, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples offers a way to maintain steady dividend income even during broader market downturns. While small, satellite positions in energy or defense ETFs can offset rising oil prices, the key is to avoid emotional overreactions to the headlines. Maintaining a diversified, high-quality portfolio ensures that your capital remains protected while you stay positioned to benefit when markets eventually normalize. — James Sahagian, Certified Financial Planner, Ramapo Wealth Advisors
Seek Robust diversification across asset classes and sectors
For retirement-age clients worried that a prolonged geopolitical conflict like the Iran war might impact their nest eggs, a defensive posture typically emphasises diversification and capital preservation over aggressive growth. One core idea is to balance a portfolio so that it can withstand volatility without forcing major asset reallocations in response to headlines. Robust diversification across asset classes and sectors remains a foundational strategy for resilience during geopolitical stress.
1. Safe-haven assets
Many investors look to traditional safe havens such as gold or gold-linked ETFs (e.g., IAU or GLD) because gold has historically served as a store of value and tends to have low correlation with equities during times of uncertainty. Allocating a modest percentage of a portfolio to gold or precious metals can act as an insurance policy against market drawdowns and inflationary pressures that often accompany geopolitical risk.
2. Fixed-income and cash equivalents
Holding high-quality bonds, short-duration Treasuries, or cash/money-market funds can preserve capital and provide liquidity, which is especially important for retirees who may need to draw income over time without selling equities at depressed prices. Treasury securities, particularly short-term ones, can serve as defensive assets when stock markets are volatile.
3. Defensive sectors and ETFs
Allocations to utility, consumer staples, and healthcare sectors — typically included in defensive ETFs — can provide relative stability because these industries supply essential goods and services regardless of economic cycles. These stocks often exhibit lower volatility than growth or cyclical sectors during stress periods.
4. Core & satellite approach
Rather than making a sweeping shift, many advisers recommend a “core-and-satellite” strategy where the core of a retirement portfolio remains broadly diversified in quality equities and bonds for long-term growth, while the satellite portion can include tactical defensive positions like precious metals or short-term fixed income to manage near-term risk. This allows retirees to maintain growth potential while tempering volatility. — Daria Turanska, Legal Manager, FasterDraft
Move from Sector Rotation to Structural Resilience
My perspective: Moving from Sector Rotation to Structural Resilience
From an institutional research perspective, navigating protracted geopolitical conflicts requires a fundamental shift in how we define a “defensive” strategy. For high-net-worth investors managing retirement portfolios exceeding $500,000, simply rotating out of tech and into utility ETFs or defensive equities often leaves the portfolio exposed to broader, systemic market shocks tied to global supply chain disruptions.
The Institutional Approach:
When analyzing how large-scale custody accounts prepare for sustained geopolitical volatility, the focus shifts from standard paper asset allocation to structural preservation: specifically, integrating non-correlated, tangible liquidity.
Historical data from protracted conflicts indicates that institutional capital heavily prioritizes sovereign wealth strategies, primarily through IRS-compliant physical precious metals. In a self-directed IRA or 401(k) rollover, physical gold doesn’t just act as a hedge; it serves as a structural firewall. It operates outside the traditional banking system and is immune to the counterparty risks that affect even the most “defensive” equities during wartime.
Rather than trying to time the market with sector-specific ETFs, our research framework suggests that true defensive posturing requires verifying liquidity and securing a baseline allocation in physical, universally recognized assets governed by transparent custodial fee structures. — Steve Maitland, Founder & Independent Research Analyst, Maitland Wealth
Flexible Deferred Annuities for Defensive Income Building
For retirement-age clients worried that a prolonged Iran conflict could harm their nest eggs, I suggest considering a Flexible Deferred Annuity as a defensive, income-building option. Many financial institutions offer variations with a chosen performance cap rate and segment buffers, plus timelines tied to segment types such as the S&P or Russell 2000 with defined ceiling and floor features.
Those elements can minimize the percentage risk for a loss in down years while limiting upside in stronger years, which can help stabilize near-term retirement income. This approach is not right for every investor, so review it with your financial advisor to see if it fits your timeline and income needs. — Ashley Kenny, Co-Founder, Heirloom Video Books
Reduce volatile individual Growth Names but maintain Diversified Index Funds
For older retirement-age clients who are concerned about over-extended geopolitical conflict, I propose a more cautiously defensive posture than drastic portfolio changes.
Allocate 5-10% to precious metals ETFs like GLD or IAU as hedge, and increase exposure on defensive sectors via utility ETF (XLU) which usually provide stable dividends during volatile periods. Consumer staples and healthcare exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can also provide stability as those sectors are needed no matter what wars are going on in the world.
Instead of drastic asset allocation changes that jolt long-term retirement strategies, slowly pare off holdings in more volatile growth names while keeping a kernel investment in diversified index funds: this way, you protect your retirement timeline and give yourself some wiggle room from a market that is near term-fuzzy at best. — Scott Brown, Founder, MintWit Continue Reading…
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