Decumulate & Downsize

Most of your investing life you and your adviser (if you have one) are focused on wealth accumulation. But, we tend to forget, eventually the whole idea of this long process of delayed gratification is to actually spend this money! That’s decumulation as opposed to wealth accumulation. This stage may also involve downsizing from larger homes to smaller ones or condos, moving to the country or otherwise simplifying your life and jettisoning possessions that may tie you down.

Was the F.I.R.E. movement doused by the pandemic?

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Cutthecrapinvesting: Image by Mohamed Hassan via Pixabay

By Dale Roberts

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

F.I.R.E is an acronym for Financial Independence Retire Early. It is a very popular movement that gets a lot of attention in the blogosphere and on social media. The idea is to eat excess amounts of ramen noodles, squeeze your budget until it squeals, save 90% of your income, invest like crazy in an all-stock portfolio, and then never work another day of your life after the age of 38. I’m kidding, please don’t “OK Boomer” me.

In reality, most from the F.I.R.E. movement will not “retire” early, but many may reach a wonderful form of financial independence. In 2020, was the F.I.R.E. movement doused by the pandemic?

2020 brought us a very quick and violent stock market correction. It was the most violent in history, but so was the recovery as governments and central banks came to the rescue of stock and bond markets. Looking back it feels like a blip. But in the moment it was more than scary, considering that we did not know the path of destruction that SARS-coV-2 might leave behind.

We still don’t know.

Did the F.I.R.E movement change course?

From what I read from my F.I.R.E friends (they’ll say I’m being rather presumptuous with the use of that friends description), they embraced the volatility. After all, volatility is not risk, if you can handle that risk, and you have an incredibly long time horizon. Volatility and falling stock prices are an opportunity, whether you are seeking to build that growing dividend stream or plan to one day also harvest shares to create retirement income.

In March of 2020 I asked …

Is this an incredible investment opportunity or what?

In the Globe and Mail, Brenda Bouw offered how F.I.R.E investors are managing through the pandemic. (Sorry that is paywall, but I’ll give you the important deets). That is a great piece with some good commentary, especially from advice-only planner Jason Heath.

The F.I.R.E. traps

F.I.R.E. followers need to be extra vigilant as their nest eggs need to last decades longer than those who retire in their 60s and 70s. There is the perception that the F.I.R.E. gang have less risk, because they are young. In fact the opposite is true. From Jason …

“You may need to over-save and underspend longer than you might think when you’re pursuing the F.I.R.E. movement,” says Jason Heath, an advice- and fee-only certified financial planner at Objective Financial Partners Inc. in Markham, Ont. “When you’re retiring at age 40 versus age 65, there’s so much more margin for error.”

Jason also pointed out that funds can quickly disappear because of costs associated with an extraordinary event, such as a serious injury or illness that requires long-term care or having a child with a disability.

“If you don’t budget for the unexpected, that could really compromise your early retirement plan,” he says.

Of course it is true that the F.I.R.E. folks may have the opportunity to go back to work if need be. But it’s also important to use the word “MAY.”  It’s not a given that health would permit the opportunity to work. There is no guarantee that meaningful work would be available. I hate to be a Dale Downer, but this is the reality that we should accept and recognize.

The good new is, they won’t actually “retire”

Nobody really retires early except for teachers and other public servants. So if you want to really retire early, you know where to apply for a job. You’ll need that guaranteed, defined benefit, indexed-to-inflation-for-life pension. And those may be hard to come by these days as governments are also doing the math on funding or backstopping those options.

Most will use that F.I. and ditch the R.E. And most will admit to that reality. They just want that freedom to do more of what they want in life with respect to leisure and travel and work. And that’s why I am a big fan of the movement. It is based on a wonderful end game (freedom) and it employs some more than important financial basics, behaviour and lessons.

You build wealth by living beneath your means. Here’s my personal finance book. OK, you may notice, it’s a blog post. Who needs a book? It all ain’t rocket surgery.

Everybody say FIWOOT!

Jonathan Chevreau calls it all Findependence. That’s perfect. Mark from My Own Advisor frames it nicely with his own acronym …

I prefer Financial Independence Work On Own Terms (FIWOOT) versus FIRE The Financial Independence Retire Early (FIRE).

Here’s Mark’s Weekend Reads.

Dance with the one that brought ya?

The greatest mistake within the community will likely be the commitment to an all-stock portfolio. There is that expression that you might ‘dance with the one that brought ya’. But that’s not the case when it comes to protecting your wealth and your F.I.R.E. Continue Reading…

Checking in on Vanguard’s VRIF

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Cutthecrapinvesting: Image by Cris Ramos from Pixabay

By Dale Roberts

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

In September, Vanguard’s VRIF ETF was launched. The ETF is an all-in-one retirement funding solution. It is designed to pay out 4% of the portfolio value in 12 monthly distributions. That level of income is set at the end of each calendar year, based on the year end value. After the Santa Claus rally, it looks like VRIF holders will be getting a modest raise.

Here’s my original review of the Vanguard VRIF ETF. Simple and cost effective asset allocation portfolios can (historically) work very well to provide consistent and generous retirement income. The Vanguard VRIF option does it all for you, from portfolio management to paying out that income each month. Of course, you can also create your own ETF portfolio for retirement funding.

The key message is that simple works. And fees are important. I am a big fan of financial planning at the right cost, but keep in mind that investment fees and advisory fees will reduce the amount that your investments can deliver each year. You would subtract that percentage off the top. That’s why you might consider a fee-for-service advisor. In the end they might provide that retirement funding plan that would include an investment option such as VRIF.

The VRIF payout

The initial monthly distribution for VRIF was set at .083333 cents per unit.

As per the ETF mandate the distribution will stay the same throughout the year. The amount in your pocket includes fees and any withholding taxes within the ETF assets. It’s 4% in the clear. Of course, you would (most often but depending on your tax situation) create taxes payable from receiving the income in an RRSP, RRIF or taxable account. Within your TFSA the income would be tax free.

The performance of VRIF

In addition to paying out the monthly distributions, the ETF has also increased in price by 4.5% from inception. Continue Reading…

Variable Percentage Withdrawal: Garbage In, Garbage Out

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By Michael J. Wiener
Special to the Financial Independence Hub

 

The concept of Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW) for retirement spending is simple enough: you look up your age in a table that shows what percentage of your portfolio you can spend during the year.

The tricky part is calculating the percentages in the table.  Fortunately, a group of Bogleheads did the work for us.  Unfortunately, the assumptions built into their calculations make little sense.

If we knew our future portfolio returns and knew how long we’ll live, then calculating portfolio withdrawals would be as simple as calculating mortgage payments.  For example, if your returns will beat inflation by exactly 3% each year, and your $500,000 portfolio has to last 40 more years, the PMT function in a spreadsheet tells us that you can spend $21,000 per year (rising with inflation).

Instead of expressing the withdrawals in dollars, we could say to withdraw 4.2% of the portfolio in the first year.  If the remaining $479,000 in your portfolio really does earn 3% above inflation in the first year, then the next year’s inflation-adjusted $21,000 withdrawal would be 4.26% of your portfolio.  Working this way, we can build a table of withdrawal percentages each year.

Of course, market returns aren’t predictable.  Inevitably, your return will be something other than 3% above inflation.  You’ll have to decide whether to stick to the inflation-adjusted $21,000 or use the withdrawal percentages.  If you choose the percentages, then you have to be prepared for the possibility of having to cut spending.  If markets crash during your first year of retirement, and your portfolio drops 25%, your second year of spending will be only $15,300 (plus inflation), a painful cut.

A big advantage of using the percentages is that you can’t fully deplete your portfolio early.  If instead you just blindly spend $21,000 rising with inflation each year, disappointing market returns could cause you to run out of money early.

Choosing Withdrawal Percentages

One candidate for a set of retirement withdrawal percentages is the RRIF mandatory withdrawals.  These RRIF withdrawal percentages were designed to give payments that rise with inflation as long as your portfolio returns are 3% over inflation.

Unfortunately, the RRIF percentages would have a 65-year old spending only $20,000 out of a $500,000 portfolio.  Some retirees chafe at being forced to make RRIF withdrawals, but when it comes to the most we can safely spend in a year, most retirees want higher percentages.

A group of Bogleheads calculated portfolio withdrawal percentages for portfolios with different mixes of stocks and bonds.  Most people will just use the percentages they calculated, but they do provide a spreadsheet (with 16 tabs!) that shows how they came up with the percentages.

It turns out that they just assume a particular portfolio return and choose percentages that give annual retirement spending that rises exactly with inflation.  You may wonder why this takes such a large spreadsheet.  Most of the spreadsheet is for simulating their retirement plan using historical market returns.

The main assumptions behind the VPW tables are that you’ll live to 100, stocks will beat inflation by 5%, and bonds will beat inflation by 1.9%.  These figures are average global returns from 1900 to 2018 taken from the 2019 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook.

So, as long as future stock and bond returns match historical averages, you’d be fine following the VPW percentages.  Of course, about half the time, returns were below these averages.  So, if you could jump randomly into the past to start your retirement, the odds that you’d face spending cuts over time is high.

For anyone with the misfortune to jump back to 1966, portfolio spending would have dropped by half over the first 14 years of retirement.  More likely, this retiree wouldn’t have cut spending this much and would have seriously depleted the portfolio while markets were down.

The VPW percentages have no safety margin except for your presumed ability to spend far less if it becomes necessary.

Looking to the Future

But we don’t get to leap into the past to start our retirements.  We have to plan based on unknown future market returns.  How likely are returns in the next few decades to look like the average returns from the past? Continue Reading…

Banking from home and Canada’s seniors: RBC sees surge in digital & online banking by older clients

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By Rick Lowes,

Vice-President, Retirement Strategy, RBC

(Sponsor content)

As the pandemic took hold in early 2020, many Canadian seniors quickly learned how to bank safely and securely from home. Now that winter is setting in, many seniors who’ve continued to use their branch through the pandemic are likely exploring these options. We’re looking forward to helping more seniors across Canada discover the simplicity of not having to go outside their home to do their banking, while resting assured their bills will be paid correctly and on time.

We’ve already heard from many of our senior clients about how pleased they are to have made the transition to online or mobile banking. An elderly client in Prince George, British Columbia who thought he could only transfer funds out of his eSavings account in person is now very happily doing online banking from home.

A senior in Burlington, Ontario – who wanted to know how he was supposed to pay his bills while the branch across the street was temporarily closed – is now paying all his bills online. And an older client in St. John’s, Newfoundland – who had fears about using a computer – couldn’t believe how easy and secure it was to do online banking, when one of our advisors walked her through the process over the phone. From coast to coast to coast, seniors like these have been engaging with our online platforms, spurred on by the realities of ongoing physical distancing.

To share some statistics of our own around what this new activity looks like, over this past year we’ve seen seniors aged 60+ increase their use of electronic money transfers by 101% and digital payments by 46%. Among seniors aged 70+ who are newer to online banking, mobile banking has quickly become their favoured channel for banking from home.

Seniors have been receiving one-on-one support from our advisors that is helping to make them more comfortable with online banking. As a result, we’ve seen that comfort level translate into empowerment and the ability to make decisions about their finances while banking from the comfort of their homes.

 Responding to Canada’s new Seniors Code

We’ve also responded quickly to ensure we had comprehensive support in place for seniors and for our employees who work with seniors, aligned with the new Code of Conduct for the Delivery of Banking Services to Seniors (“Seniors Code”). This Seniors Code guides banks in their delivery of banking products and services to Canada’s seniors. Continue Reading…

Retired Money: What can retirees do about GIC reinvestment sticker shock?

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at the vexing problem retirees and near-retirees face when their GICs have matured in recent months. Click on the highlighted text for the full column: Recovering from GIC sticker shock.

If before you were getting 2 to 3% on 2, 3, 4 or 5-year GICs, you may be shocked to discover you’ll be lucky to get 1% and only then by declining to take the first suggested GIC your brokerage has on offer. Going out 5 years may only gain you 0.5% or so, depending on provider.

Nor will matters improve any time soon. The Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada and other central banks have suggested interest rates will stay “lower for longer.” The Fed in particular has indicated rates are unlikely to rise for at least three years.

The piece passes on the views of financial advisors Adrian Mastracci and Matthew Ardrey on what to do about it. It amounts to grinning and bearing it and settling for lower guaranteed returns, or biting the bullet and taking a bit more risk with equities or alternative investments.

But what if you insist on what our family has done historically: leaving half your fixed-income allocation in GICs? Personally, I aim for roughly a 50/50 asset allocation and for the fixed-income portion historically have split it between laddered GICs and bond ETFs, or asset allocation ETFs with a healthy dose of bonds.

Odds are if you use the major discount brokerages of the big banks, you may need to leave them to find more generous GICs available from independent places like Oaken Financial, which has a 1-year registered GIC paying 1.4% and a 5-year GIC currently paying 2% through Home Trust and Home Equity Bank.

Personally, I have reinvested some GIC cash in 2- or 3-year maturities, on the hope rates start to rise three years from now. While 1% or so is pathetic at least it’s a positive number (ignoring inflation): with so many mentions of negative interest rates in Europe and sometimes floated by central bankers in North America, any positive return at is not to be sneezed at.

Conservative Asset Allocation ETFs are one possible alternative

Among the gambits I’ve tried is to raise risk slightly by moving some of this cash to ETFs like Vanguard’s Conservative Income ETF Portfolio [VCIP/TSX], which is 80% fixed income but provides a modest 20% equity kicker. Those who don’t wish to mess with their pre-existing asset allocation might consider the Vanguard Global Bond ETF [VGAB], roughly split between US and global bonds, all hedged back into the Canadian dollar. Continue Reading…