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$1.7 million to retire, revisited

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Image by Pexels: Tima Miroshnichenko

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column takes a more in-depth look at the Hub blog that ran earlier this month. For the full Retired Money version that ran on Friday, click on the highlighted text here: How much money do you need to retire in Canada? Is it really $1.7 million? 

Both look at the widely publicized BMO poll that found Canadians now need $1.7 million to retire on average. The figure used to be $1.4 million but inflation has made it a bit tougher. Here’s the CNW newswire release from Feb. 7th.

As I mention in the MoneySense column, the Hub version was written off the top of my head and published as part of the initial news cycle. With an extra week to go to expert sources, the updated column is more nuanced and has more accurate returns projections and calculations where the first version consisted of guesstimates.

Of course, generalizations are always dangerous and that goes double for retirement planning, especially over the kind of 40-hour time horizon involved. It’s one thing to be a Millennial investor just starting out on the retirement journey and quite another to be a boomer like myself, looking back at portfolios begun three or four decades earlier. As the original Hub version commented, $1 million isn’t what it used to be. Even so, even maxing out your RRSP contributions each year will take some doing: as I wrote after my quick guesstimate, if you divide $1.7 million by 40 you get $42,400 a year that needs to be contributed each and every year, or almost twice the maximum RRSP contribution permitted even if you’re a top earner.

If you’re fortunate enough to be one half of a couple, $850,000 per spouse seems a lot more achievable. And if you have a Defined Benefit pension plan, you may not need anything else, whether from an RRSP, TFSA or non-registered savings. If you hang in to a gold-plated DB pension plan for 40 long years, odds are it alone will be the equivalent of $1 million, and possibly backstopped by taxpayers and indexed to inflation to boot.

But if you begin investing early, you won’t need to save anywhere close to $1.7 million because of investment returns that are tax-deferred inside an RRSP. Because of the time value of money, even the modest 4% compounded annual investment returns will over the course of 40 years get you to the promised land.

The Hub blog assumed investment returns of 4% per annum either from fixed income (4- or 5-year GICs) or from high-yielding dividend-paying stocks, like Canada’s bank stocks, utilities or telecom majors. In the MoneySense column, wealth advisor Matthew Ardrey of TriDelta Financial assumes a more hopeful 5% return across those asset classes.

Using the retirement calculator Calculator.net, used by BMO (www.calculator.net), if you can earn a conservative 4% a year, you’d need to contribute only $17,202 (rounded) at the end of each year to reach $1.7 million after 40 years. That breaks down to $688,074 in total contributions and another $1,011,926 in interest payments.

And if you can do better than 4%, you could contribute even less and make up the difference in investment returns: at 5% a year, you’d need to contribute only $13,403 (rounded) at the end of each year to reach $1.7 million after 40 years. That breaks down to $536,110 in contributions and $1,163,891 in interest.

P.S. MyOwnAdvisor doesn’t think most need to save $1.7 million

As a postscript, I note that on his Weekend Reads feature, MyOwnAdvisor also tackled this question of $1.7 million, which ran after I had already submitted my MoneySense column on the same topic. You can find Mark’s take here, but here’s his bottom line:

Do you really need $1.7 million to retire?

I highly doubt it.

Or, maybe.

I dunno.

“It depends.”

It depends on you. I mean that! 🙂

 

 

 

 

 

Sector ETFs for Defensive Plays

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By Mirza Shakir, Associate Portfolio Manager, BMO ETFs

(Sponsor Content)

What are Sector ETFs?

Sector ETFs allow targeted exposure to sectors or industries like financials, materials, or information technology – domestic, regional, or global. The sectors are usually classified according to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS), but other classifications can also be used. While sector ETFs could be active funds, most track an index, offering transparency, liquidity, and low fees.

There are eleven broad GICS sectors that can be invested in with sector ETFs.

  • Energy
  • Materials
  • Industrials
  • Consumer Discretionary
  • Utilities
  • Real Estate
  • Communication Services
  • Financials
  • Health Care
  • Consumer Staples
  • Information Technology

There are two common approaches in constructing a sector portfolio: market capitalization weighted and equal weighted. As the names suggest, the former approach weights securities in the portfolio by market capitalization while the latter weights them equally.

At BMO ETFs, our suite of sector ETFs covers equal-weighted and market-weighted strategies across all sectors, locally and globally. We opt for equal-weighted strategies for sectors that have the potential to get concentrated in a few large names with the market-capitalization approach, ensuring effective diversification and mitigating individual company risk.

 

Source: BMO GAM, BMO ETF Roadmap February 2023 (Visit ETF Centre – CA EN INVESTORS (bmogam.com)

Annualized Distribution Yield: The most recent regular distribution, or expected distribution, (excluding additional year end distributions) annualized for frequency, divided by current NAV.

Risk is defined as the uncertainty of return and the potential for capital loss in your investments.

Why Invest in Sector ETFs?

Sector ETFs can offer differentiated return and risk profiles for investors, not only from broad market portfolios but also from other sectors. Additionally, investing in a sector ETF allows access to a broad range of companies that have businesses that operate in similar or related industries, which can be more diversified than investing in a single stock. The investor does not have to place individual bets on single companies, which helps limit company-specific risks.

The table shown at the top of this blog, and shown to the right in miniature, shows the performance of all sectors in the U.S. from 2011 to 2022. Notably, the best and worst performing sectors change every year, leaving an opportunity for market timing to generate high returns. However, timing the markets can be extremely difficult. A more effective strategy can be sector rotation, which involves overweighting or underweighting sectors relative to the stage of the business cycle.

Playing Defense – Sector Rotation Strategies

The business or economic cycle refers to a cycle of expansion and contraction that economies undergo, accompanied by similar upswings and downswings in economic output and employment. Continue Reading…

Best stocks for new investors seeking profits share these qualities

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Image courtesy TSInetwork.ca

Finding top stocks for new investors is easier when you know what to look for. Discover the types of stocks to invest in and some investments to avoid.

We caution investors to maintain a healthy sense of skepticism at all times. It’s especially crucial for investment newcomers to observe this rule.

Here are some recommendations on the types of stocks for new investors to focus on: and ones to avoid.

Focus on investment quality  

The best investment plans or systems use a variation of the value investing approach. That is, they revolve around choosing high-quality investments and diversifying your holdings.

Safer investing also means taking a careful and methodical approach to investing that does not jeopardize your savings or your investment goals. There will always be some inherent risk when investing, so making safer investing decisions lets you minimize that risk.

The safest way in our view for Successful Investors to invest money is to place a lot of importance on investment quality.

We do our own stock market research for our newsletters and investment services, and we apply it from a portfolio manager’s perspective. That’s why we advise sticking to mostly well-established companies; they tend to hold on to more value when things go wrong and recover faster.

Zero in on dividend-paying investments

One tip we share often is to invest in companies that have been paying a dividend for 5 or more years. Dividends are typically cash payouts that serve as a way for companies to share the wealth they’ve accumulated. These payouts are drawn from earnings and cash flow and are paid to the shareholders of the company. Typically, these dividends are paid quarterly, although they may be paid annually or even monthly. Canadian citizens who own shares in Canadian stocks that pay dividends will also benefit from a tax break.

Building a diversified portfolio of top stocks for new investors

Always maintain a diversified stock portfolio: and avoid the temptation of trying to pick hot stocks or sectors.

Different investors may be more comfortable holding a larger or smaller number of investments in their portfolios. Here are some tips on diversifying your stock portfolio:

When it comes to a diversified stock portfolio, stocks in the Resources, and Manufacturing & Industry sectors in general expose you to above-average share price volatility.

  • Stocks in the Utilities and Canadian Finance sectors entail below-average volatility.
  • Consumer stocks fall in the middle, between volatile Resources and Manufacturing companies, and more stable Canadian Finance and Utilities companies.

Most investors should have investments in most, if not all, of these five sectors. The proper proportions for you depend on your temperament and circumstances.

Investments that should be avoided: Cryptocurrencies & IPOs

I still can’t think of anything that would make me optimistic on bitcoin or any cryptocurrency, even after the deep slump the whole sector has gone through recently. The best thing I can say about bitcoin is that it will probably remain volatile, rather than vaporizing like the worst crypto performers. Continue Reading…

Rate Hike hiatus?

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By Dale Roberts, cutthecrapinvesting

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Late in January, the Bank of Canada boosted rates by another 0.25% and signalled that they will now pause and evaluate. I’ve been calling that the rate hike hiatus. As I touched on in mid-January, inflation is moving in the right direction and the consumer is holding up quite well. It’s a Goldilocks scenario, for now. That said, the rate hikes have not worked their way through the economy. In fact, many suggest that we’ve felt almost no economic damage from the rate hikes. There is a lag affect; it can take a year or two for hikes to be felt in full. But let’s call the rate hike hiatus good news.

The big news last month was the announced rate hike hiatus in Canada. Of course, markets are forward “thinking” and they are pricing in a soft landing and rate cuts in 2023. That Yahoo!Finance post suggest that cuts are likely not on the table this year. That would only happen if something breaks and we get a serious-enough recession. Also, inflation would have to be completly under control. The Bank of Canada is not likely to cut rates if inflation is not close to that 2% target.

Rate guesses, not so good …

The consensus appears to be the call that there will be no rate cuts in 2023, though there is a sprinkling of calls for cuts in late 2023. And all said, we should remember the rate predictions from March.  Not even close.

Inflation is so unpredicatable. And inflation might still be driving the bus in 2023.

Coming in for a landing

Lance Roberts looks at the history of soft landing and hard landings. There were 3 past soft landing scenarios, but none in an inflationary environment. The affect of rate hikes have largely not been felt, and likely have had little push on inflation. But that will come over time of course.

Here’s the chart that shows the positive effect of a weak U.S. Dollar for international equities. With bonds looking better and the potential for international markets, the traditional balanced portfolio might ‘be back’ one day soon.

A Weak Dollar Bodes Well For Non-U.S. Equities – ⁦@SoberLook⁩ ⁦@bcaresearch⁩

Originally tweeted by Rob Hager (@Rob_Hager) on January 24, 2023.

Stacking those dividends

Dividend Daddy knows how to stack and count those dividends.

Here is a popular tweet on the simple basics of wealth creation and the path to financial happiness … Continue Reading…

Why Healthcare could lead this market cycle

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Chief Investment Officer explains why this massive sector has the right mix of styles and innovation to show leadership as markets recover

 

Image Harvest ETFs/Shutterstock

By Paul MacDonald, CFA, Harvest ETFs

(Sponsor Content)

Market cycles are often defined by their leaders. While many sectors and areas of the market can provide returns, the tone and tempo of market narratives are often set by the companies, styles and sectors that are broadly considered the ‘leaders.’

Take the past roughly 15 years as an example. The leadership story on markets was almost completely defined by technology. Tech leaders were synonymous with growth, and that growth was synonymous with leadership during a period of mostly uninterrupted bull market runs.

The bear market we experienced in 2022 hit the reset button on leadership. Not necessarily by removing tech as the key growth sector — it still shows plenty of attractive growth traits — but by resetting some of the fundamental dynamics in the market.

The end of near-zero interest rates has changed the liquidity picture on markets. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, has been structurally higher since the onset of the pandemic, and we are likely already in a period of slow economic growth: if not a recession. Rather than the pure-growth traits investors sought for leadership, in the near to medium term we see potential for leadership in areas that balance growth prospects and innovation with stability and consistency.

That sector is healthcare.

3 tailwinds means Healthcare can lead

The US healthcare sector is, in the eyes of many investors, a sleeping giant. Looking at just the 20 leading companies held in the Harvest Healthcare Leaders Income ETF (HHL:TSX) we see a combined market capitalization of $4.86 trillion, more than 150% of the total market cap of the S&P TSX Composite. These are huge companies in a huge sector, which covers business lines as diverse as pharmaceuticals, healthcare services, med-tech, biotech, and healthcare equipment.

The healthcare sector overall benefits from three structural long-term tailwinds. The first is the aging of the developed world. As the world’s richest countries get older, they are spending more on healthcare. In the US, for example, individuals aged 19-44 spend an average of $4,856 [US$] on healthcare, according to the National Health Statistics Group. That number rises to $10,212 in the 45-64 age bracket, and rises again to $19,098 in the 65+ age bracket.

The developed world is getting older. By 2050 28.5% of North Americans and 35% of Europeans are expected to be over the age of 60, according to the UN. As those places age, their older populations will spend more on healthcare. That demand is largely expected to be stable for the simple fact that people are less likely to cut expenditures on life-saving medications than they are on something more discretionary. Healthcare is therefore seen as a superior good.

The second tailwind is the economic growth of the developing world. Taking China and India as prime examples, the WHO has found that as those countries’ GDP has grown, their healthcare expenditure has grown at a faster rate. These huge markets are already being captured by some of the large-cap US healthcare leaders held in HHL. Continue Reading…