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Tackling your Stock Market fears

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By Anita Bruinsma, CFA

Special to the Findependence Hub

Investing has become more accessible to more people over the years. The emergence of mutual funds, ETFs, online brokers and robo-advisors has given pretty much everyone the means to invest. So why are so many people still reluctant to invest, and in particular, why don’t they think they can do it themselves? Judging by the people I’ve talked to the answer is: they’re scared. 

This is unfortunate and unnecessary. The investment industry has made investing look so complicated. We are led to believe that we need an MBA, a Bloomberg terminal and a proficiency in Excel modeling to invest. This is absolutely not true. Investing can be simple when you buy and hold broad-market ETFs. 

Compounding the problem are the tales of fortunes lost in the stock market, either by gambles taken or being swindled by an unscrupulous financial sales person. These horror stories, although real, are uncommon, and like many of our fears, are bigger in our imaginations than in reality. 

Investing can be simple

Have you heard of imposter syndrome? That’s when you think you aren’t talented or skilled enough to deserve your job, your income, or the accolades bestowed on you. I had terrible imposter syndrome when I was hired as an equity analyst 16 years ago. I thought everyone around me was way smarter than me when it came to investing in the stock market. 

Over the years, though, I realized that so much of what people were talking about was irrelevant, and the excessive amount of information and analysis was unnecessary. The highly-paid “experts” who came to meet with us couldn’t simply say “The stock market goes up over the long term.” Why would anyone be paid to give that simple piece of insight?

The thing is, that’s all that matters. The fact that the U.S. stock market has, historically, always recovered from dips and crashes and continued the march upward is all that matters. Don’t let all the other market-related noise distract you from this point.

Fewer decisions, better outcomes

Here’s how to de-complicate investing: don’t make predictions. The smartest investors on Bay Street don’t try to guess where the market is going: they buy their investments and hold onto them for the long term. The more decision-making you remove from investing, the better off you’ll be. This means don’t pick stocks and don’t choose when to get in and out of the market. Buy ETFs or index mutual funds that mirror the broad market, buy when you have the money, and sell when you need it.  Continue Reading…

The all-weather portfolio. Ready for almost anything

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By Dale Roberts

Special to the Findependence Hub

I recently posted a portfolio concept for the all-weather portfolio for 2022. The idea behind an all-weather portfolio is that it can prosper during periods of sun, rain, storms, hurricanes, earthquakes and tsunamis. Of course, in the above analogy weather serves as a proxy for the economic conditions that might arrive. The all-weather portfolio is ready for most anything.

On Seeking alpha I posted the all-weather portfolio for 2022. The portfolio is designed for U.S. investors, though Canadians can certainly mimic the approach or apply the greater concepts. The big idea of the all-weather portfolio is to hold assets in four buckets. It is an extension of the Permanent Portfolio.

There is a bucket of investment assets ready to thrive no matter what the weather offers (economic conditions). For example, for the last 40 years or so we’ve had favourable weather. Inflation has been low and economic growth has been modest, but positive. We’ve been in a disinflationary environment. Inflation has been low and mostly falling.

The weather has been nice

Stock markets and bond markets perform quite well during these disinflarionary periods.

To view some longer dated returns have a look at the RBC Select Balanced Fund. Of course, you could do better by way of an all-in-one asset allocation ETF.

Stocks have performed quite well over time. That said, investors needed to be armed with some very impressive umbrellas (and risk tolerance) to withstand the Great Financial Crisis (2008-2009) and the dot-com crash of the early 2000’s. Stock markets declined in spectacular fashion in both of these events.

Given that we were still in the midst of a mostly disinflationary period, bonds did the trick in lowering the volatility of the typical balanced portfolio. Bonds will mostly go up when stocks go down, offering that useful inverse relationship. We can think of bonds as portfolio shock absorbers.

These two major stock market corrections came and went, and we returned to our mostly fair-weather disinflationary times. Modest economic growth returned as well.

And now for something completely different

Yes, the above subhead is referencing a catch phrase made famous by Monty Python’s Flying Circus.

Monty Python’s Flying Circus

The comedy troupe was certainly different. And so is today’s economic environment. We have inflation, real inflation. It might even turn into stagflation when most everything fails for the investor. Stagflation is a period of persistent inflation that is accompanied by economic decline. The worst of all worlds you might say. Some nasty weather.

What works during stagflation or unexpected inflation (persistent inflation above those central bank 2-3% targets)? It’s not stock markets; it’s certainly not bonds. Oooops. That’s the traditional balanced portfolio. Continue Reading…

A sensible RRSP vs. TFSA Comparison

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A Sensible RRSP vs. TFSA Comparison

Should you contribute to your RRSP or your TFSA? It’s one of the most frequently asked questions here and on other financial forums, yet the answers couldn’t be more divided. Furthermore, there is a growing sentiment among Canadians that somehow RRSPs are a government scam because you’ll be forced to pay tax on any withdrawals in retirement. That leads many to (sometimes) incorrectly declare that a TFSA is the better savings vehicle for retirement due to the tax-free treatment of withdrawals.

Let’s start by clearing up one important fact in the RRSP vs TFSA debate: The accounts are mirror images of each other. When you put money in an RRSP and invest the tax refund, you’re using pre-tax dollars. The money grows inside a tax sheltered account and then you pay taxes on your withdrawals years later in retirement.

The opposite is true of a TFSA – you contribute with after-tax dollars but won’t have to pay taxes when you take money out. If you’re in the same tax bracket when you withdraw from your RRSP as you were when you made the contributions, the RRSP and TFSA work out to be exactly the same.

RRSP vs TFSA Comparison

Here’s a simple chart that David Chilton used in The Wealthy Barber Returns to help drive this point home:

TFSA RRSP
Pre-tax income $1,000 $1,000
Tax $400 n/a
Net contribution $600 $1,000
Value in 20 years @ 6% growth $1,924 $3,207
Tax upon withdrawal (40%) n/a $1,283
Net withdrawal $1,924 $1,924

Two important caveats to keep in mind:

  1. You need to invest the tax refund in order for RRSPs to work out as designed. Unfortunately, most Canadians spend their refund and so they don’t end up with as much money in their retirement account.
  2. A TFSA is flexible in that you can take out money at any time without penalty. For Canadians who use a TFSA as their primary retirement savings vehicle that means resisting the temptation to raid the account whenever “something” comes up. You should also replace the ‘S’ in TFSA with an ‘I’ and make sure to invest that money for the long-term. Continue Reading…