General

Approach the A.I. bandwagon with caution

Posted By Jonathan Chevreau | July 6, 2023

It’s hard to pick up a financial publication or peruse most general-interest media outlets these days without being blitzed by stories about ChatGPT and the latest mania: A.I. or Artificial Intelligence.

Just last week the New York Times devoted an episode of its The Daily podcast to Silicon Valley’s rush to A.I., even as venture capitalists start shying away with the previous darling, Cryptocurrency.

It seems everyone wants a piece of what they hope will become the next Nvidia, a chip play that pundit Jim Cramer once named after his own dog. Give him credit: anyone who bought before Nvidia famously passed the US$1 trillion market cap level this year is probably sitting on a double or triple, including Yours Truly.

In a recent video interview I did with Allan Small, I mentioned in passing that while I do happen to own Nvidia going back some years, I also have my share of painful losers, and that my approach to A.I. and technology in general is that it should merely be part of a normal diversified portfolio. I told him that I’ve always had a reasonable exposure to technology, seeing as I was the Globe & Mail’s technology reporter going back to the early 1980s (perhaps one of the first to specialize in that beat.)

A.I.-themed ETFs

Speaking of the Globe, I see that its personal finance columnist Rob Carrick recently weighed in with his take on A.I. You can find it (under paywall) here. For those who can’t get past the paywall, Carrick lists some examples of A.I.-themed ETFs, adding the hedge “if you’re comfortable with the risk of a more direct approach to AI investing.”

One is an ETF I happened to take a flyer on myself a few years ago, so far under water: the Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ-Q; the others include the iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF (IRBO-A) and the First Trust Nasdaq Artificial intelligence ETF (ROBT-Q.) Carrick also mentions a few other Canadian-listed ETFs with the most exposure to AI produced by TD Securities: I’ll just list the suppliers and ticker symbols here: two from Horizons ETFs (RBOT-T and MTAV-T), two from Evolve (TECH-T and DATA-T), and one from BMO: ZINT-T.

Personally, I doubt I’ll buy any of these theme ETFs. Investors typically get burned by the FOMO and elevated valuations inherent on jumping on a thematic bandwagon once the train has already left the station [to mix a metaphor] and embraced widely by the media. The most prominent example will be marijuana ETFs, which have generated little but painful losses for most investors, even those early to the party. More recently are cryptocurrencies, whether obscure individual holdings or packaged up in ETFs (led by Canada!) Continue Reading…

Why this blogger doesn’t invest in Canadian Dividend ETFs [An oldie but goodie from 2019, updated for 2023]

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | July 5, 2023

By Mark Seed, myownadvisor

Special to Financial Independence Hub

It’s fun to look back and see how things change…or not. :)

Fans of this site, including many long-time readers and investors who enjoy this site, continue to tout the benefits of low-cost investing to others … I do too … but I still don’t invest in any Canadian Dividend ETFs.

That’s because when it comes to investing I believe you often get what you don’t pay for.

One way to reduce your investment fees, is to own lower-cost dividend ETFs but that doesn’t mean such funds are automatically suited for you and your approach.

In this updated post, I remind readers why I like some low-cost ETFs, why I own a few in my portfolio but when it comes to investing in Canada I’ve decided to build my own ETF per se.

I wrote about this in 2011. Yup, that long ago. I updated that post in 2017. And, it’s now 2023.

Learn how things change or what stays the same in this updated post and share your own story or comment about stocks or ETFs held for many years in a comment on the site. I read every comment and I try to answer every one of them as well.

Read on: Why I (still) don’t invest in Canadian Dividend ETFs.

Why I don’t invest in Canadian Dividend ETFs

Fans of this site, including many long-time readers and investors who enjoy this site, continue to tout the benefits of low-cost investing to others…but I still don’t invest in any Canadian Dividend ETFs.

That’s because when it comes to investing I believe you often get what you don’t pay for.

One way to reduce your investment fees, is to own lower-cost dividend ETFs.

In fact, here are some of the great benefits that come from investing in dividend ETFs beyond just ETF distribution income:

Transparency – within a few taps of my phone I can see what every single holding is in these funds. I can also read up on the fund’s prospectus to learn how fund turnover is managed and how often. Portfolio turnover within the fund costs money – someone needs to get paid! That brings me to my next point below.
Modest fees – you might recall, active fund management costs more because money managers are paid to perform. A pay for performance mandate encourages the mutual fund money manager to buy and sell stocks frequently in an attempt to beat the market or the index they are tracking. Fund management, buying and selling, incurs time and resources. Time is money. Those costs are passed on to you. Instead of this model, I think investors should strive to invest in a low-cost ETF that follows a reputable, established, broad market index such as the S&P/TSX Composite Total Return Index or for dividend investors in Canada, an established dividend-oriented index such as:
- S&P/TSX 60 Index (my favourite – see low-cost ETF from iShares XIU), or
- S&P/TSX Composite High Dividend Index, or
- FTSE Canada High Dividend Yield Index.
Lower effort – if you’re going to invest in some individual stocks, you need to spend some time understanding these companies and understanding what you own, why you own it. I read a few annual reports every year and follow metrics like yield, payout ratio, earnings per share, cash flow to name a few. Dividend ETFs don’t have this complexity – they bundle all these companies together for you.

There are certainly many benefits to owning Canadian dividend ETFs…but I still don’t invest in any of these Canadian funds.

Read on in this updated post…

Why I don’t invest in Canadian Dividend ETFs

Here are my reasons why:

1. I built my own Canadian Dividend ETF.

Many years ago, I learned there is merit to owning the same Canadian stocks the big funds own – so I started that process. I’ve never looked back.

In 2011 and updated again in 2017, I went so far as to say Canadian dividend stock selection could be made easy.

Here is one quick example – look at this RBC Canadian Dividend Fund in 2011:

And now the same fund’s top fund holdings as of April 2017:

And what does the RBC Canadian Dividend Fund own in 2023?

Lots of differences eh? (Images courtesy of RBC’s site.)

Source: https://www.rbcgam.com/en/ca/products/mutual-funds/RBF266/detail

Let’s look at another example and pick on one of my favourite ETFs: XIU.

Now, again, if you don’t want to buy and hold certain stocks, nor try and create your own Canadian Dividend ETF like I have, then no problem. This fund is arguably one of the best ETFs to own in Canada.

(I recall iShares XIU was one of the world’s first ETFs.)

XIU holds the largest of the largest Canadian companies. My perspective is, if collectively the largest 60 companies in Canada aren’t making money year-over-year, nobody is.

This ETF has provided strong Canadian market returns over the last decade and remains a great choice for your indexed portfolio should you decide to go that route.

Here are the top holdings from XIU, from April 2017:

And as of April 2019:

And what does low-cost XIU in 2023?

XIU ETF June 2023

Humm, not too many changes. Something to consider…

2. I control the portfolio turnover (which is largely non-existent)!

I can count on my hands how many stocks I’ve bought then sold over the last 15 years. Yes, full disclosure, I have sold a few stocks over the years. I believe that comes with the DIY investor territory.

However, for the most part, instead of buying and selling any stocks including Beat the TSX stocks, I buy and hold and reinvest dividends for higher income over time.

You can see how that (boring) approach is working out for me below. Continue Reading…

The Four-year Rule: One of the Must-Know Stock Trading rules for Beginners

Posted By Pat McKeough | July 4, 2023

Are you interested in stock trading rules for beginners? The “four-year” rule is an important one to understand for growing your profits

Are you interested in stock trading rules for beginners? Most “market rules” turn out to be demonstrations of the fact that random events tend to occur in bunches. The “research” they grow out of generally consists of studying statistics until you find start-and-end dates of periods when a hypothetical indicator would have paid off.

In most cases, if you change the start and/or end dates, the market rules/indicators lose their advantage or go into reverse. Even if you stick with the same start and end dates, the indicator will still go into reverse eventually.

However, the four-year rule is an exception among other stock trading rules for beginners. That’s because it’s based on events that tend to recur in predictable phases of the four-year U.S. Presidential term.

Some statistics are worth a close look

From the election of Andrew Jackson in 1832 till the election of Donald Trump in 2016, the U.S. has gone through 47 complete four-year Presidential terms.

In the first years of each of these 47 four-year presidential terms (starting with the year after the Presidential Election year) the average result for the U.S. stock market was a gain of 3%.

In the second years (the mid-term election years), the annual gain averaged 4.0%. The average result for the third years (the pre-Presidential Election years) was a 10.4% gain. The average for the fourth years (the Presidential Election years) was a gain of 6.0%. (Source: Stock Traders Almanac 2022.)

This pattern probably comes about because of a couple of unchanging things about most U.S. Presidential Elections:

First, most U.S. political office holders, regardless of party, want to get re-elected, or pave the way to the election of a successor from their own party.
Second, U.S. Presidential Elections bring out many “swing voters” who might not bother to vote in less important elections. They tend to get interested in the Presidential Election because of the torrent of attention it inspires, in the media and in day-to-day conversation.

That’s why newly elected or re-elected presidents often introduce unpleasant necessities in the first year or at least first half of the term. (The best recent example is the need President Trump felt to confront China early in his term.) Swing voters (or voters generally, for that matter) will have had time to get over the shock of the news before the next Presidential Election. In fact, the unpleasant necessities of the first half of the term may have begun paying dividends by the second half. Continue Reading…

Using ETFs for International Investing

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | June 30, 2023

By Erin Allen, VP, Online Distribution, BMO ETFs

(Sponsor Content)

As an investor, diversification is crucial to reducing risk and achieving long-term growth. International investing is a great way to diversify your portfolio, but it can be challenging for Canadians to navigate the complex world of foreign stocks and currencies. One solution is to use exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for international investing.

Benefits

There are many advantages to using ETFs for international investing. First, they provide exposure to a broad range of international markets, including developed and emerging markets. This diversification can help reduce risk (when one market zigs and another zags) and increase returns over the long term.

Second, ETFs are typically more cost-effective than other forms of international investing. They have lower fees than traditional mutual funds, and you can invest in them for no commission at many online brokerages in Canada.

Third, ETFs provide transparency and ease of access. You can easily track the performance of your international ETFs and adjust your portfolio as needed. Additionally, most ETFs are denominated in Canadian dollars, so you don’t have to worry about currency conversion fees or fluctuations.

Considerations

Currency: Currency returns are an important factor impacting investors purchasing a non-Canadian asset. Foreign currency fluctuations can affect the total return of assets bought in that currency when compared to the Canadian dollar. ETF providers offer both hedged and unhedged options, giving Canadian investors more tools to efficiently execute their investment strategies. The objective of currency hedging is to remove the effects of foreign exchange movements, giving Canadian investors a return that approximates the return of the local market. Continue Reading…

65% of Americans say partner having too much debt is a marital dealbreaker

Posted By Jonathan Chevreau | June 29, 2023

65% of Americans say their partner having too much debt is a dealbreaker in deciding to get married. Little wonder that the national marriage rate in the United States has declined 60% over the last 50 years.

Source: Clever Real Estate — Marriage Survey, May 2023

According to the Marriage Survey of 1,000 American adults conducted by Clever Real Estate in May (see graph above), financial stability is a primary purpose for marriage, as reported by 1 in 5 Americans (20%). In fact, 19% admit they would marry solely for money reasons (19%). Entering into the calculation are factors like high inflation, escalating living costs, and an expensive real estate market.

While marriage positively impacts finances for 66% of couples, only 54% of married couples discuss finances regularly, and 7% never broach the topic. 53% favor separate bank accounts. However, married women are 10% less likely to manage finances in their marriage than men. Money-related issues contribute to about 1 in 6 divorces (16%). Looking back at their lives, 10% of married respondents wish they chose a partner more financially responsible.

For more on Americans’ views on marriage, read the full report: 2023 Data: 1 in 4 Americans Think Marriage Is an Outdated Concept

Here are other highlights: