Inflation

The simple strategies that set you up for Retirement Success

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | November 11, 2025

By Dale Roberts, CutTheCrap Investing, Retirement Club

Special to Financial Independence Hub

More Canadians feel nervous and unsure about retirement. About 60% of Canadians feel they will outlive their money. I’m here to bring good news. There are a few, simple strategies that will set you up for retirement success. If you read the retirement experts, if you watch all of the wonderful Canadian advice-only financial planners’ YouTube videos, you’ll notice they all repeat the same core strategies. It’s a version of going around the internet and back. Eventually you can stop and realize ‘wow, this is easier than I thought’. It is a good feeling when you discover that creating a successful retirement plan is not that difficult, at all.

Let’s assume that you’ve done most everything right. You’ve read The Wealthy Barber books. You need to pick up another one, and ask your kids, nieces and nephews to read it, as well.

I condensed my financial planning book down to 1200 words …

Oh look, I just found $888,000 in your coffee.

Dave needed 250 pages this time. 😉

You paid yourself first, you invested successfully, on a regular schedule, in a low-fee manner (stocks and ETFs).

How much do you need to invest to become a millionaire?

You cleared your debt, good debt and bad debt. You got the house purchases right, you got the car purchases right. Perhaps you’re entering retirement with no mortgage and no vehicle payments (not a bad idea). You have or had proper insurance, created a will, etcetera, etcetera. If need be, you took advantage of the Spousal RRSP account.

You’re in very good shape.

The retirement basics

Now on to the simple core strategies that will set you up for a successful retirement. You’ve been a very successful DIY investor in the accumulation stage. You might create your own retirement plan. With some research and the retirement tools available, it is certainly ‘doable’ for most Canadians.

And that’s why we started Retirement Club for Canadians.

If you want more help or a second opinion you can certainly contact an advice-only planner. Yup, those same folks who (many of them) offer the advice for free in blogs and via video channels. You can pay a one-time fee, there’s no need to have an advisor in your pocket every day. You’ll receive conflict-free advice, they are not attached to any poor performing Canadian mutual funds, ha. 😉

Retirement Cash Flow Plan

You’ll use a free-use or very affordable retirement cash flow calculator to discover an optimized, tax-efficient spending strategy. There’s comfort in seeing and knowing that your money is going to last.

Delay CPP and OAS for greater payments

Most Canadians (many planners suggest it’s almost all Canadians) will benefit if they delay The Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Old Age Security (OAS) payments. From age 65 to age 70 you’ll receive a 42% boost to your CPP payments and a 36% boost to your OAS payments.

The retirement cash flow calculator will show you the way. It’s different for everyone, of course. To enable the delay of those government monies (let’s call those pensionable earnings), you’ll enact the RRSP meltdown strategy.

The RRSP / RRIF meltdown. A Canadian retiree’s greatest hack?

You’ll spend down your RRSP / RRIF in an accelerated fashion early in retirement to provide a bridge as you await those larger pension-like earnings from CPP and OAS.

The flexible cash flow plan

You’ll embrace a variable withdrawal strategy. The retirement cash flow calculator will show you that a flexible spending plan offers a much higher success rate compared to a static or rigid plan. For example, you might set a desired spending range of $90,000 – $100,000 annual after taxes, compared to a rigid $100,000. If we enter a severe recession and market correction you’re OK to spend a little less.

The investment returns and life events will shape your retirement plan over time. We will certainly evaluate the plan every few years.

The U or You-Shaped spending plan

Speaking of life events, out of the gate you might start with a U-shaped retirement spending plan.

Of course, we build the cash flow plan around your life plans, and the life you want to live in retirement. You might embrace and plan for a U-shaped retirement plan.

Spend more in the early go-go years
Spend less in the mid slow-go years
Boost spending in the no-go years

Spend more when you have your health and energy. Be prepared for surprisingly high healthcare and residence costs in the late-in-life stage.

Income splitting, sharing is caring

When you run a retirement calculator you might be shocked by the low-tax environment you are entering if you are ‘with spouse’.

To lower the tax burden you can split employer pensions, RRIF amounts and even CPP in some situations. Income splitting with strategic use of your RRIF, TFSA and Taxable accounts can enable a ridiculously low effective tax rate for many Canadian retirees. Continue Reading…

10 Secrets of investing in Junior Mining Stocks

Posted By Pat McKeough | November 10, 2025

Junior mining stocks are highly speculative, but here are 10 secrets that will help you find the best of them

In mining exploration, an “anomaly” is a geological formation or find that might attract a prospector’s interest. However, one rule of thumb for mining stocks is that you have to look at 1,000 “anomalies” to find one “prospect,” and that fewer than one “prospect” in a thousand turns into a mine. In other words, finding a mine is a million-to-one shot.

What are the challenges facing junior mining stocks in Canada?

Junior mining companies in Canada face significant challenges of securing adequate financing for exploration and development, navigating complex environmental regulations and permitting processes, managing high operational costs in remote locations, and dealing with commodity price volatility.

What is the government doing to support the junior mining stocks in Canada?

The Canadian government supports junior mining through flow-through shares tax incentives, the Mineral Exploration Tax Credit (METC), favorable exploration policies in territories like Yukon and Northwest Territories, and programs supporting critical minerals exploration.

That’s one reason why junior mining stocks — unlike many of the best mining stocks — are highly speculative, and are apt to cost you money. Another reason why junior mines are risky is that it’s relatively cheap and easy to launch a penny mine and sell stock to the public. So the junior mines promotion business attracts more than its share of unscrupulous operators and stock promoters. That’s increasingly the case in 2023 when unmined, easily reached deposit sites are harder to come by. It’s also why finding the best mining stocks takes some research.

How do I diversify my portfolio with junior mining stocks?

To diversify with junior mining stocks, limit them to a small percentage (typically 5-10%) of your total portfolio and spread investments across different commodities, development stages, and geographic regions to manage the high risk inherent in this sector.

However, junior mining stocks can play a role in a portion of your portfolio, specifically the part you devote to aggressive resource investments.

Here are 10 things we look for when we analyze junior mining stocks in a search for the best mining stocks to buy:

We generally stay away from mining stocks operating in insecure and politically unstable regions like the Congo and Venezuela, or in countries with little respect for property rights and the rule of law, like Russia or Mongolia. Mining is inherently a politically vulnerable business; you can’t move the mine to another country, and local citizens sometimes believe that a foreign mining company is robbing them of their birthright, even though they need the foreign company’s capital and expertise to get any value out of the ground.
When we recommend pure-exploration junior mines, we prefer those that operate in an area with geology that is similar to that of nearby producing mines.
We look for well-financed junior mines with no immediate need to sell shares at low prices, since that would dilute existing investors’ interests. The best junior mines have a major partner who has agreed to pay for the drilling or other exploration or development, in exchange for an interest in the property.
We find that the best mining stocks are those with a strong balance sheet and low debt.
When we recommend mining stocks, we want to see positive cash flow, preferably even when commodity prices are low. Continue Reading…

How to invest when the stock market is overvalued

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | November 4, 2025

By Mark Seed, myownadvisor

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Welcome to some new Weekend Reading about how I invest when the stock market is overvalued.

Continued inspiration for my investing approach (and related to the theme for this Weekend Reading edition) comes from this Humble Dollar article.

When most people are touting the stock market is “too high” to invest in, then, well, it probably is…

The challenge is, as I have personally experienced over the years as a DIY investor, there is no guarantee that all-time-highs don’t keep happening. You just don’t know when the party will end.

That’s it.

As the Humble article suggests, any market-timing strategies, appealing as they might seem are usually very unreliable in practice. And if you are unsure about whether you should invest at all, then at least prepare things could get worse.

“That’s why this is a good time — while the market is strong — to prepare, even if we can’t predict.”

Source: RBC.

As part of other interesting reads this week I found:

When Should You Sell a Stock?, was published by Ben Carlson. From Ben:

“The truth is knowing when to sell a stock is more art than science.” Continue Reading…

Oh, How things have changed

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | November 3, 2025

And it’s whispered that soon if we all call the tune
Then the piper will lead us to reason
And a new day will dawn for those who stand long
And the forests will echo with laughter

Stairway to Heaven, by Led Zeppelin

By Noah Solomon

Special to Financial Independence Hub

At the end of last year, the S&P 500 Index was valued at about 23 times estimated earnings over the coming year, which was significantly above its historical average. By mid-March of this year, the index had declined by roughly 10%, driven by unspectacular economic growth, inflation rates that remained stubbornly high, and related concerns that valuations reflected unwarranted optimism.

These growing concerns morphed into widespread panic on April 2^nd, when the U.S. imposed tariffs on imported goods that were more severe than had been anticipated. Broad-based fears that tariffs would cause higher inflation, slower growth, or perhaps even a recession spurred a sharp drop in stock prices, with the S&P 500 falling another 5%, bringing its year-to-date loss to 15% at its low point on April 8^th.

Fast forward to the present, and all is once again right in the world. The U.S. administration delayed many tariff deadlines, and those tariffs that have been imposed are below the levels that were initially announced. In addition, the feared inflationary impact of tariffs has not yet materialized. These better-than-expected developments have soothed markets, with the S&P 500 advancing 35% from its low point of the year, leaving its year-to-date gains at nearly 15% as of the end of September.

The trillion-dollar question is whether markets are currently reflecting realistic expectations. To the extent that sensible assumptions regarding risk and reward are embedded in current security prices, investors should stay the proverbial course. Conversely, portfolio adjustments are warranted if expectations are unreasonably optimistic.

Not all FOMO is Created Equal

Emotions and behavioral biases have exerted and will always exert a huge influence on investors’ decisions. Perhaps one of the most common among these is fear of missing out (FOMO), which is “the anxiety or apprehension that one is missing out on rewarding experiences, information, or events that others are having.”

Whereas FOMO can often be irrational, thereby leading to poor decisions and results, at times it can be a positive force, spurring investors to act in ways that can bolster returns.

Embracing vs. Shunning FOMO: It’s all about the Odds

Historically, when markets have been saturated with a “nothing can go wrong/it can only go up” mindset, returns over the ensuing several years have fallen somewhere between subpar and negative. In such environments, those who have tempered their FOMO have achieved better returns than those who have not. Conversely, when markets have been replete with a “things can only get worse/the sky is falling” mentality, returns over the next few years have been significantly higher than average. In such circumstances, investors who have embraced their FOMO have reaped significant rewards.

If only things were so simple

Clearly, you can achieve better than average results from taking less risk when prospective returns are below average and from taking more risk in environments where prospective returns are above average. Unfortunately, there is no precise gauge (or collection of gauges) that offer any degree of certainty or precision with respect to either of these extremes. Continue Reading…

Four ETFs to play the modern gold rush

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | October 31, 2025

• Gold is shining again; prices have surged to record highs this year and are forecast to climb further.

• Central banks are buying at a record pace, while investors seek protection from rising debt and currency debasement through gold ETFs.

• BMO’s gold ETF suite offers choice: ZGLD for stability, ZGD for growth, and ZJG for high-octane exposure.

Gold shines in 2025

By Erin Allen, Director, Online Distribution, BMO ETFs

(Sponsor Blog)

Gold’s reputation as an ancient store of value has rarely felt more modern.

The metal has been one of 2025’s standout performers among major asset classes, surging to record highs of around US$3,900 per ounce as of September 2025. The rally has been fueled by central bank buying, rising fiscal concerns, and investors seeking protection from a weakening U.S. dollar.

BMO Capital Markets recently lifted its gold price forecasts to an average of US$3,900 for the final quarter of 2025 and US$4,400 for 2026, reflecting what analysts describe as structural changes in the geopolitical and financial landscape¹.

The key driver: debt. With deficits in the U.S., Japan, and Europe ballooning, gold is increasingly being viewed not just as a safe haven, but as a strategic hedge against long-term currency debasement.

In this piece, we unpack what’s driving gold’s renewed strength, assess whether it’s sustainable, and outline ways investors can gain exposure through BMO ETFs from the physical metal itself to large and small-cap miners.

Central banks are quietly building reserves

One of the biggest tailwinds for gold has been record levels of central bank buying.

According to Reuters, central banks now hold 36,000 tonnes of gold, having added more than 1,000 tonnes annually for three consecutive years². This surge reflects a broad reassessment of what constitutes a safe asset.

Geopolitical instability and questions over the long-term stability of U.S. Treasuries have prompted central banks to diversify reserves. Gold has even overtaken the euro to become the second-largest global reserve asset, and for the first time since 1996, represents a larger share of reserves than Treasuries².

Chart 1: Foreign central banks hold more gold than Treasuries

Gold fell from 75% to 15% of reserves; Treasuries rose and surpassed gold holdings around 2023 for central banks.

The World Gold Council notes that while emerging markets typically hold 5–25% of their reserves in gold, developed economies hold more than 70%³. This steady official-sector accumulation underscores the global shift to tangible assets amid growing fiscal and political uncertainty.

Trade tensions and currency debasement fears

Gold’s strength also reflects what Bloomberg calls the “debasement trade.” As government debt piles up and fiscal discipline erodes, investors are moving out of major currencies and into alternative stores of value such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin⁴.

The U.S. dollar is down roughly 8% year-to-date, while gold continues to post record highs. Bloomberg notes that the current cycle echoes previous bouts of U.S. dollar weakness following the global financial crisis and periods of aggressive monetary easing⁴.

As George Heppel, Vice President, Commodity Research at BMO Capital Markets, explains, both cyclical and structural forces are converging¹:

“What we’re really seeing this year is the combination of a short-term thesis and a long-term thesis for holding gold, which has created a perfect storm for the metal. And naturally all of this increases concerns around sticky or growing inflation and the potential for negative real rates next year, which makes gold an attractive asset to be holding as an inflation hedge,” he says.

With U.S. debt climbing and political gridlock persisting, investors have reason to question the durability of fiat currencies. Gold, with no counterparty risk and a finite supply, has reasserted its role as a monetary anchor.

According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) – also known as the “Trump tax cuts” – will add an estimated US$19 trillion to U.S. debt over 30 years as written, or US$32 trillion if made permanent⁵.

“The passage of OBBBA will put tremendous pressure on the nation’s fiscal and economic health. Layered onto an already unsustainable outlook, the new law increases the risk of higher interest costs, slower growth, volatile markets, and reduced capacity to respond to future crises or invest in national priorities,” the CBO warned.

Chart 2: Debt soars under OBBBA

Projected U.S. debt-to-GDP rises sharply from 2025 to 2054, peaking at 219% under the highest scenario in the chart.

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Gold ETF demand surges to near-record levels

While central banks are leading the charge, investors are not far behind.

According to ETF.com, global gold ETFs have attracted US$44 billion in inflows this year, equivalent to roughly 443 metric tonnes of the metal⁶. That puts 2025 on track to rival the record US$49.5 billion set in 2020: the strongest year ever for gold-backed funds. Canada alone saw over $1B flow into commodity ETFs, largely driven by gold, according to National Bank of Canada’s September flows report.

Gold ETFs have become the preferred way to access gold, offering liquidity, transparency, and simplicity: all without the complications of physical storage.

Investment banks turn bullish

Institutional sentiment has followed suit.

BMO analysts believe the gold market is undergoing profound structural change, driven by debt, inflation, and de-dollarization. The bank has raised its long-term gold-price assumption to US$3,000 per ounce, up from US$2,200, placing it near the top of sell-side consensus¹. Continue Reading…