Inflation

Inflation

Is the “4%” Rule still relevant for Retirement Planning? What the experts say

Late in October, my monthly MoneySense Retired Money column reviewed three recently published financial books, starting with financial planner William Bengen’s new A Richer Retirement: Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More.

Below we canvassed more than a dozen retirement experts and financial planners in both Canada and the United States about their experiences with the Rule, both the original book as well as the new one.

These experts were gathered by Featured.com, which has been supplying Findependence Hub with quality content for several years now. It has changed its procedure so that editors like myself can request input on particular topics we think will interest our readership. The sources are all on LinkedIn, as you can see by clicking on their profiles below.

Here’s what we asked, followed by their answers, which have been re-ordered by me.

“What do you think of the 4% Rule: CFP Bill Bengen’s guideline about a safe annual Retirement withdrawal amount that factors in inflation? Have you read or do you plan to read Bengen’s just-published followup book: A Richer Retirement : Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More? Do you agree or do you have your own tweaks to the 4% Rule? Looking for both Canadian and American input.”

Here is what these thought leaders had to say.

Adaptive Withdrawals protect Retirement through Market Cycles

The 4% Rule, created by CFP Bill Bengen in the 1990s, remains one of the most referenced retirement withdrawal guidelines. It suggests withdrawing 4% of your portfolio in the first year of retirement and adjusting that amount for inflation each year. The idea was to provide a sustainable income stream for at least 30 years without depleting your savings. Bengen’s newly published book, A Richer Retirement: Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More, revisits this concept using updated data and broader asset allocations. He now argues the safe withdrawal rate could rise to around 4.7%, supported by stronger market performance and portfolio diversification beyond the original stock-bond mix. 

I see the 4% Rule as a reliable starting point, but not a fixed rule. It offers structure for retirees who need clarity on how much to withdraw each year, but real-world conditions require flexibility. For U.S. investors, I still begin with 4% as a baseline because it remains simple and conservative. Then I evaluate three major factors before adjusting: market volatility, portfolio performance, and expected longevity. For Canadian retirees, I tend to start lower, around 3.5%, due to differences in taxation, mandatory RRIF withdrawal rules, and the impact of currency and inflation differences compared to U.S. portfolios. 

My main adjustment to the rule is to make withdrawals adaptive rather than static. If the portfolio declines by more than 20% early in retirement, I recommend reducing withdrawals by 5% to protect capital. If inflation stays above 4% for more than two years while fixed income returns remain weak, I hold withdrawals steady instead of increasing them. Conversely, if long-term returns outperform expectations, withdrawals can rise modestly. These adjustments keep the retirement plan sustainable through changing market cycles. 

The lesson is to view the 4% Rule as a guideline, not a guarantee. Its true value lies in the discipline it introduces. A flexible version of the rule — tailored to taxes, inflation, and market behaviour — helps retirees spend with confidence while protecting their financial future. — Andrew Izrailo, Senior Corporate and Fiduciary Manager,  Astra Trust

Real Estate Investors Outperform Traditional 4% Rule

I’ve always thought the 4% rule is a decent starting point, but it’s really built around stocks and bonds. In my world of real estate, combining rental income with property value growth usually blows past that number. Instead of a fixed withdrawal, you can sell a property or pull out equity when the market’s high. That flexibility often makes your money last a lot longer in retirement. — Carl Fanaro, President,  NOLA Buys Houses 

Balance Freedom and Security in Retirement Journey

Retirement, much like embarking on a long and meaningful journey, is not just about reaching a destination but about learning how to move through each stage of life with purpose and enjoyment.

After reading Bill Bengen’s A Richer Retirement, I found his updated perspective on the 4% Rule both inspiring and practical. He transforms what was once seen as a strict withdrawal formula into a flexible approach that prioritizes experience, adaptability, and peace of mind.

Bengen’s message is that retirement should not revolve around fear or limitation. Instead, it should be about living fully within realistic financial boundaries. By adjusting withdrawals according to personal goals, market performance, and the natural flow of retirement years, retirees can enjoy their savings as a source of freedom rather than anxiety.

The concept feels much like travel: in some seasons, you venture farther, explore more, and spend a bit extra; in others, you slow down, rest, and savor simplicity. This approach is particularly meaningful for those who dream of traveling during retirement. The early, active years can be dedicated to exploring places like Morocco, when energy and curiosity are at their peak. Later on, spending can naturally shift toward quieter experiences closer to home.

Both Canadians and Americans can apply this mindset using tools such as TFSAs, RRSPs, Roth IRAs, or Social Security planning to balance flexibility and security.

In the end, Bengen’s vision reframes retirement as a phase of freedom, not restriction. It invites people to plan wisely but live fully, creating space for exploration, connection, and purpose much like a well-planned journey that leaves room for discovery along the way. — Nassira Sennoune, Marketing Coordinator, Sun trails

Tax-Efficient Withdrawals add 1-2% to Retirement

The 4% rule is a solid starting point, but after 20+ years advising clients, I can tell you it’s not one-size-fits-all. I’ve seen too many retirees lock themselves into unnecessary restrictions because they treat it like gospel rather than a guideline. 

Here’s what I actually do with clients: we start with 4% as the baseline, then adjust based on their actual spending patterns and market conditions. I had a couple last year who were terrified to spend more than their calculated 4%, even though their portfolio had grown 30% and they were skipping vacations they’d dreamed about for decades. We bumped them to 5.5% for two years because the math worked and life is short: they finally took that trip to Italy. 

The biggest mistake I see isn’t about the percentage itself: it’s that people forget about tax efficiency in withdrawal sequencing. I always look at which accounts to pull from first (taxable vs. tax-deferred vs. Roth) because that can add 1-2% to your effective withdrawal rate without touching principal. One client saved $47,000 over five years just by restructuring their withdrawal order. 

I haven’t read Bengen’s new book yet, but it’s on my list. My practical tweak: build a 2-3 year cash cushion in your portfolio so you’re never forced to sell stocks in a down market. That flexibility alone has kept my clients sleeping well through every correction since 2008. — Winnie Sun, Executive Producer,, ModernMom

Canadian Medical Costs require Flexible Withdrawal Rates

Look, the 4% rule is a decent guideline, but it’s not some magic number you can set and forget. I’ve watched people get into trouble because they didn’t account for medical bills, which are a real wild card here in Canada. I always tell people to build in a cash buffer and check in on that withdrawal rate every couple of years instead of just locking it in permanently. — James Inwood, Insurance Broker, James Inwood

Cash Reserves shield Retirees from Market Volatility

I assist clients with retirement and estate planning.  Bill Bengen’s original 4% rule was first published in 1994 and took into account a balanced investment portfolio modeled back to 1926.  At that time, he projected a 4% withdrawal rate, adjusted annually for inflation, would ensure the portfolio was sustainable for a 30-year retirement.  I recommend my retired clients review their portfolio allocation, investment returns, monitor for annual inflation and expenditures and then make adjustments for the next year’s withdrawals.  

 I plan to read Mr. Bengen’s new book published in August.  Mr. Bengen  is now recommending a broader asset diversification to add in small percentages of international equities and small-cap stocks in addition to his historic investment portfolio of 50% U.S. large-cap stocks and 50% intermediate bonds.  He claims with this broader diversification the safe withdrawal rate could now be up to 4.7% under best case scenario, 4.15% worst case.  I agree with Bengen that broader asset diversification can make sense for retirees who are investment knowledgeable and are monitoring annually the data I’ve noted above.

I recommend to my clients that any rule of thumb such as Bengen is simply a data point.  Retirees need to take into account their own risk profile as well as their investment understanding before making any significant adjustments to their rate of asset withdrawal.   Retirees now have longer life spans and are battling a heightened inflation rate.  I recommend my clients have a flexible withdrawal range of 3.5% to 4.5%, monitor assets annually, and continually adjust their annual withdrawal rate as necessary for volatile markets.   

I also recommend that my clients have a cash account established of at least two years’ withdrawals to avoid having to sell assets in a prolonged negative market environment. — Lisa Cummings, Attorney and Executive Vice President at Cummings & Cummings Law,  Cummings & Cummings

Tax Planning Matters more than Withdrawal Percentages

I’ve spent 40 years managing my own law firm and CPA practice, plus 20 years as a registered investment advisor, so I’ve seen hundreds of retirement plans play out in real life. The 4% rule is a decent starting point, but I stopped treating it as gospel about 15 years into my advisory career.

Here’s what I actually saw with my small business owner clients: their retirement income rarely came from just traditional portfolios. Most had business sale proceeds, real estate holdings, and irregular cash flows that made the 4% rule almost irrelevant. One client sold his manufacturing business at 62 for $2.3 million (US) but kept the building and leased it back: his retirement “withdrawal rate” was completely different because he had guaranteed rental income covering 60% of his expenses. 

The bigger issue I noticed was tax planning around withdrawals. I’d have clients rigidly following 4% from their IRAs while sitting on Roth conversions they should’ve done years earlier, or taking Social Security at the wrong time. The sequence of what you withdraw from matters more than the percentage: I’ve seen people save $50K+ in taxes over retirement just by pulling from taxable accounts first while doing strategic Roth conversions. 

My tweak: forget the percentage and work backward from your actual monthly expenses, then layer in guaranteed income sources (Social Security, pensions, annuities) before touching portfolio money. Most of my retired clients ended up withdrawing 2-3% because they structured things right on the front end. — David Fritch, Attorney,  Fritch Law Office Continue Reading…

The simple strategies that set you up for Retirement Success

By Dale Roberts, CutTheCrap Investing, Retirement Club

Special to Financial Independence Hub

More Canadians feel nervous and unsure about retirement. About 60% of Canadians feel they will outlive their money. I’m here to bring good news. There are a few, simple strategies that will set you up for retirement success. If you read the retirement experts, if you watch all of the wonderful Canadian advice-only financial planners’ YouTube videos, you’ll notice they all repeat the same core strategies. It’s a version of going around the internet and back. Eventually you can stop and realize ‘wow, this is easier than I thought’. It is a good feeling when you discover that creating a successful retirement plan is not that difficult, at all.

Let’s assume that you’ve done most everything right. You’ve read The Wealthy Barber books. You need to pick up another one, and ask your kids, nieces and nephews to read it, as well.

 

I condensed my financial planning book down to 1200 words …

Oh look, I just found $888,000 in your coffee.

Dave needed 250 pages this time. 😉

You paid yourself first, you invested successfully, on a regular schedule, in a low-fee manner (stocks and ETFs).

How much do you need to invest to become a millionaire?

You cleared your debt, good debt and bad debt. You got the house purchases right, you got the car purchases right. Perhaps you’re entering retirement with no mortgage and no vehicle payments (not a bad idea). You have or had proper insurance, created a will, etcetera, etcetera. If need be, you took advantage of the Spousal RRSP account.

You’re in very good shape.

The retirement basics

Now on to the simple core strategies that will set you up for a successful retirement. You’ve been a very successful DIY investor in the accumulation stage. You might create your own retirement plan. With some research and the retirement tools available, it is certainly ‘doable’ for most Canadians.

And that’s why we started Retirement Club for Canadians.

If you want more help or a second opinion you can certainly contact an advice-only planner. Yup, those same folks who (many of them) offer the advice for free in blogs and via video channels. You can pay a one-time fee, there’s no need to have an advisor in your pocket every day. You’ll receive conflict-free advice, they are not attached to any poor performing Canadian mutual funds, ha. 😉

Retirement Cash Flow Plan

You’ll use a free-use or very affordable retirement cash flow calculator to discover an optimized, tax-efficient spending strategy. There’s comfort in seeing and knowing that your money is going to last.

Delay CPP and OAS for greater payments

Most Canadians (many planners suggest it’s almost all Canadians) will benefit if they delay The Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Old Age Security (OAS) payments. From age 65 to age 70 you’ll receive a 42% boost to your CPP payments and a 36% boost to your OAS payments.

The retirement cash flow calculator will show you the way. It’s different for everyone, of course. To enable the delay of those government monies (let’s call those pensionable earnings), you’ll enact the RRSP meltdown strategy.

The RRSP / RRIF meltdown. A Canadian retiree’s greatest hack?

You’ll spend down your RRSP / RRIF in an accelerated fashion early in retirement to provide a bridge as you await those larger pension-like earnings from CPP and OAS.

The flexible cash flow plan

You’ll embrace a variable withdrawal strategy. The retirement cash flow calculator will show you that a flexible spending plan offers a much higher success rate compared to a static or rigid plan. For example, you might set a desired spending range of $90,000 – $100,000 annual after taxes, compared to a rigid $100,000. If we enter a severe recession and market correction you’re OK to spend a little less.

The investment returns and life events will shape your retirement plan over time. We will certainly evaluate the plan every few years.

The U or You-Shaped spending plan

Speaking of life events, out of the gate you might start with a U-shaped retirement spending plan.

Of course, we build the cash flow plan around your life plans, and the life you want to live in retirement. You might embrace and plan for a U-shaped retirement plan.

  • Spend more in the early go-go years
  • Spend less in the mid slow-go years
  • Boost spending in the no-go years

Spend more when you have your health and energy. Be prepared for surprisingly high healthcare and residence costs in the late-in-life stage.

Income splitting, sharing is caring

When you run a retirement calculator you might be shocked by the low-tax environment you are entering if you are ‘with spouse’.

To lower the tax burden you can split employer pensions, RRIF amounts and even CPP in some situations. Income splitting with strategic use of your RRIF, TFSA and Taxable accounts can enable a ridiculously low effective tax rate for many Canadian retirees. Continue Reading…

10 Secrets of investing in Junior Mining Stocks

Junior mining stocks are highly speculative, but here are 10 secrets that will help you find the best of them

TSInetwork.ca

In mining exploration, an “anomaly” is a geological formation or find that might attract a prospector’s interest. However, one rule of thumb for mining stocks is that you have to look at 1,000 “anomalies” to find one “prospect,” and that fewer than one “prospect” in a thousand turns into a mine. In other words, finding a mine is a million-to-one shot.

What are the challenges facing junior mining stocks in Canada?

Junior mining companies in Canada face significant challenges of securing adequate financing for exploration and development, navigating complex environmental regulations and permitting processes, managing high operational costs in remote locations, and dealing with commodity price volatility.

What is the government doing to support the junior mining stocks in Canada?

The Canadian government supports junior mining through flow-through shares tax incentives, the Mineral Exploration Tax Credit (METC), favorable exploration policies in territories like Yukon and Northwest Territories, and programs supporting critical minerals exploration.

That’s one reason why junior mining stocks — unlike many of the best mining stocks — are highly speculative, and are apt to cost you money. Another reason why junior mines are risky is that it’s relatively cheap and easy to launch a penny mine and sell stock to the public. So the junior mines promotion business attracts more than its share of unscrupulous operators and stock promoters. That’s increasingly the case in 2023 when unmined, easily reached deposit sites are harder to come by. It’s also why finding the best mining stocks takes some research.

How do I diversify my portfolio with junior mining stocks?

To diversify with junior mining stocks, limit them to a small percentage (typically 5-10%) of your total portfolio and spread investments across different commodities, development stages, and geographic regions to manage the high risk inherent in this sector.

However, junior mining stocks can play a role in a portion of your portfolio, specifically the part you devote to aggressive resource investments.

Here are 10 things we look for when we analyze junior mining stocks in a search for the best mining stocks to buy:

  1. We generally stay away from mining stocks operating in insecure and politically unstable regions like the Congo and Venezuela, or in countries with little respect for property rights and the rule of law, like Russia or Mongolia. Mining is inherently a politically vulnerable business; you can’t move the mine to another country, and local citizens sometimes believe that a foreign mining company is robbing them of their birthright, even though they need the foreign company’s capital and expertise to get any value out of the ground.
  2. When we recommend pure-exploration junior mines, we prefer those that operate in an area with geology that is similar to that of nearby producing mines.
  3. We look for well-financed junior mines with no immediate need to sell shares at low prices, since that would dilute existing investors’ interests. The best junior mines have a major partner who has agreed to pay for the drilling or other exploration or development, in exchange for an interest in the property.
  4. We find that the best mining stocks are those with a strong balance sheet and low debt.
  5. When we recommend mining stocks, we want to see positive cash flow, preferably even when commodity prices are low. Continue Reading…

How to invest when the stock market is overvalued

Image Pixabay/meineresterampe

By Mark Seed, myownadvisor

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Welcome to some new Weekend Reading about how I invest when the stock market is overvalued.

Continued inspiration for my investing approach (and related to the theme for this Weekend Reading edition) comes from this Humble Dollar article.

When most people are touting the stock market is “too high” to invest in, then, well, it probably is…

The challenge is, as I have personally experienced over the years as a DIY investor, there is no guarantee that all-time-highs don’t keep happening. You just don’t know when the party will end.

I recognized many, many years ago, I cannot time the market so I don’t even bother. Which makes my investing philosophy extremely simple when it comes to market highs or lows, I just keep buying when I have the money to do so.

That’s it. 

As the Humble article suggests, any market-timing strategies, appealing as they might seem are usually very unreliable in practice. And if you are unsure about whether you should invest at all, then at least prepare things could get worse.

“That’s why this is a good time — while the market is strong — to prepare, even if we can’t predict.”

Related to this theme, you might like this RBC article with this graphic for context.

Weekend Reading - How to invest when the stock market is overvalued

Source: RBC.

As part of other interesting reads this week I found:

When Should You Sell a Stock?, was published by Ben Carlson. From Ben:

“The truth is knowing when to sell a stock is more art than science.” Continue Reading…

Oh, How things have changed

Image courtesy Outcome/Shutterstock

 

And it’s whispered that soon if we all call the tune
Then the piper will lead us to reason

And a new day will dawn for those who stand long
And the forests will echo with laughter

 

  • Stairway to Heaven, by Led Zeppelin

 

 

By Noah Solomon

Special to Financial Independence Hub

At the end of last year, the S&P 500 Index was valued at about 23 times estimated earnings over the coming year, which was significantly above its historical average. By mid-March of this year, the index had declined by roughly 10%, driven by unspectacular economic growth, inflation rates that remained stubbornly high, and related concerns that valuations reflected unwarranted optimism.

These growing concerns morphed into widespread panic on April 2nd, when the U.S. imposed tariffs on imported goods that were more severe than had been anticipated. Broad-based fears that tariffs would cause higher inflation, slower growth, or perhaps even a recession spurred a sharp drop in stock prices, with the S&P 500 falling another 5%, bringing its year-to-date loss to 15% at its low point on April 8th.

Fast forward to the present, and all is once again right in the world. The U.S. administration delayed many tariff deadlines, and those tariffs that have been imposed are below the levels that were initially announced. In addition, the feared inflationary impact of tariffs has not yet materialized. These better-than-expected developments have soothed markets, with the S&P 500 advancing 35% from its low point of the year, leaving its year-to-date gains at nearly 15% as of the end of September.

The trillion-dollar question is whether markets are currently reflecting realistic expectations. To the extent that sensible assumptions regarding risk and reward are embedded in current security prices, investors should stay the proverbial course. Conversely, portfolio adjustments are warranted if expectations are unreasonably optimistic.

Not all FOMO is Created Equal

Emotions and behavioral biases have exerted and will always exert a huge influence on investors’ decisions. Perhaps one of the most common among these is fear of missing out (FOMO), which is “the anxiety or apprehension that one is missing out on rewarding experiences, information, or events that others are having.”

Whereas FOMO can often be irrational, thereby leading to poor decisions and results, at times it can be a positive force, spurring investors to act in ways that can bolster returns.

Embracing vs. Shunning FOMO: It’s all about the Odds

 

Historically, when markets have been saturated with a “nothing can go wrong/it can only go up” mindset, returns over the ensuing several years have fallen somewhere between subpar and negative. In such environments, those who have tempered their FOMO have achieved better returns than those who have not. Conversely, when markets have been replete with a “things can only get worse/the sky is falling” mentality, returns over the next few years have been significantly higher than average. In such circumstances, investors who have embraced their FOMO have reaped significant rewards.

If only things were so simple

Clearly, you can achieve better than average results from taking less risk when prospective returns are below average and from taking more risk in environments where prospective returns are above average. Unfortunately, there is no precise gauge (or collection of gauges) that offer any degree of certainty or precision with respect to either of these extremes. Continue Reading…