Inflation

Inflation

Iran War and Defending investments from Stagflation

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By Dale Roberts, Retirement Club/Cutthecrapinvesting

Special to Financial Independence Hub

It has been more than two weeks since the U.S. attacked Iran. And while the U.S. was quick to knock out much of Iran’s traditional military capability, Iran has turned to asymmetric war and has also weaponized oil, fertilizers and other materials that pass through the Hormuz Strait. With threats and some strategic attacks on shipping, Iran has essentially closed the Hormuz Strait. About 20-25% of the world’s oil and a third of the world’s fertilizer needs flow through the Strait. We now face a potential energy shock and there are rumblings that we might experience a period of stagflation. In the 1970s an energy crisis created the conditions for stagflation. How do we defend against stagflation?

As always, the following is not advice.

First off, and as always, no one knows what will happen. No one knows how this war will proceed and what it will mean for investment assets and the economies of the world. Trump could announce today that he’s packing up and heading home or this could continue for years. That said, history does teach us how assets react. History teaches us how to hedge most any threat.

What is Stagflation?

Stagflation happens when several factors combine to create an especially difficult economic environment. To get stagflation, three things must occur together:

  • Slow economic growth
  • High inflation
  • A high unemployment rate

Stagflation is an economic double-whammy where stagnant growth and high unemployment collide with rising inflation. This rare, painful cycle is difficult to fix because traditional policies to lower inflation often worsen unemployment, and vice versa.

In Canada’s case we’d say we are economically up Schitt’s Creek. Investopedia does a decent job of explaining what is stagflation and why it is nasty.

Here’s a very good overview from RBC:  On the horns of the stag.

Wars and the portfolio

Market strategists have been quick to point out that rarely do conflicts have any long-lasting impact on stock prices. In 20 major episodes since the Second World War compiled by analysts at RBC Wealth Management, the S&P 500 index fell by an average of just 6 per cent.

The outliers in that list, however, involve major oil market disruptions, like the Arab oil embargo in 1973 and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990. We had more significant drawdowns.

For accumulators, they should stick to the investment plan. We should always be compounding.

At Retirement Club for Canadians and in our secure online community space, I shared this message …

It has been the most common message on this blog: get an investment plan and stick to it like glue. Here’s the full graphic that was shared at Retirement Club (and on X (Twitter).

War is something we can ignore like every other risk, when we have our stock-solid investment plan and retirement plan.

The 4 economic scenarios

The economy can shift along two axes:

  • Economic growth (rising or falling)
  • Inflation (rising or falling)

Combining them gives four possible economic scenarios:

1. Inflationary Growth

Growth ↑ + Inflation ↑

  • Economy expanding strongly
  • Demand pushes prices higher
  • Often occurs during late expansions

Assets that tend to do well

  • Commodities
  • Real estate
  • Some stocks

Example period: parts of the global economy during the early 2000’s commodity boom.

2. Disinflationary Growth

Growth ↑ + Inflation ↓

  • Economy grows but inflation stays low or falls
  • Considered the best environment for stocks

Assets that tend to do well

  • Stocks
  • Growth companies
  • Corporate credit
  • Bond market

Example: much of the period after the Global Financial Crisis recovery.

3. Stagflation

Growth ↓ + Inflation ↑

  • Economy slows but prices keep rising
  • Very difficult for policymakers

Assets that tend to do well

  • Commodities
  • Gold
  • Inflation-protected assets
  • Oil and gas stocks

Classic example: the 1970’s Oil Crisis.

4. Deflation / Recession

Growth ↓ + Inflation ↓

  • Demand collapses
  • Prices and wages fall
  • Debt burdens become heavier

Assets that tend to do well

  • Government bonds
  • Cash
  • Defensive assets

Example: the Great Depression and recessions

Fortunately we are almost always in scenario 2 and some of scenario 1. High inflation and stagflation is rare. Deflation or a Depression is rare and market recessions shown in scenario 4 is why many will embrace bonds and cash to create a balanced portfolio that is lower risk. Continue Reading…

Three Ways Life Insurance can Protect you from Inflation

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Photo courtesy LSM Insurance

By Lorne Marr, LSM Insurance

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Inflation means the prices of everyday things — like food, housing, transportation, and healthcare — increase over time. This reduces the purchasing power of your money and can affect your family’s standard of living. Permanent life insurance can be a powerful tool to help protect your finances against these rising costs.

What type of Life Insurance helps with Inflation?

Permanent life insurance provides lifelong coverage and builds cash value over time. Unlike term life insurance, which only covers a specific period, permanent policies can grow in value and death benefit, helping your family maintain financial security despite inflation.

Main types of permanent life insurance:

  • Whole Life Insurance
    • Provides a guaranteed death benefit and builds cash value.
    • Participating whole life policies pay dividends, which can buy Paid-Up Additions (PUAs)—small increments of additional insurance that increase both death benefit and cash value.
  • Universal Life Insurance (UL)
    • Flexible premiums and death benefits.
    • Option to choose a level death benefit or an increasing death benefit to keep up with inflation.

There are three main ways permanent life insurance can protect you against inflation:

1. Inflation Protection through Increasing Death Benefit Option in Universal Life Policies

How it works: Your death benefit can grow over time to match inflation.

Example (2% inflation):

By choosing an increasing death benefit, your coverage keeps pace with inflation, preserving purchasing power for your family.

2. Inflation Protection through Participating Whole Life Insurance and Paid-Up Additions

How it works: Dividends from a participating whole life policy can purchase Paid-Up Additions (PUAs), increasing both death benefit and cash value over time.

Example (2% inflation, PUAs $12,000/year):

With 2% inflation, the original $500,000 loses value to $452,000 in today’s dollars. PUAs grow your policy above this, effectively protecting your family against inflation. Continue Reading…

Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse?

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Image by Pixabay

By John De Goey, CFP, CIM

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Over the past number of months, I have become increasingly interested in a series of ideas put forward by a handful of economists who were both iconoclastic and influential in their time.  It seems their ideas are experiencing a bit of a renaissance. Some of these economists achieved moderate fame, and some had more credibility than others.

Here I’d like to explore the related theories and ideas of Joseph Schumpeter, Nikolai Kondratieff, Simon Kuznets and Hyman Minsky.

Let’s begin with portraits of the four thinkers

Joseph Schumpeter (1883-1950) — His big idea was ‘creative destruction,’ the notion that capitalism advances through waves of entrepreneurial innovation that destroy old industries and create new ones, driving productivity growth though with upheaval for incumbents.

Nikolai Kondratiev (1892 – 1938) — Held the view that ‘long waves’ (lasting roughly 50–60 years) explain how economies experience ‘super cycles’ that are tied to major technological revolutions (e.g., steam/rail, electricity/chemicals, information) that reshape investment, growth, and prices. The current wave has been dominated by the internet and artificial intelligence and likely started in the mid to late1980s.

Simon Kuznets (1901 – 1985) — Wrote about structural change and long-run growth. He felt that the economy reorganizes itself across sectors and shifts in income distribution accompany growth. He was among the first to write about income inequality and the structural changes he identified matter for things like productivity and living standards.

Hyman Minsky (1919 – 1996) — Is best known for his financial instability hypothesis: stability breeds complacency; credit cycles move through hedge, speculative, and ponzi financing, causing systemic fragility and crises when optimism turns to debt distress, leading to a “Minsky Moment” when it all comes crashing down. Over-extended credit leading to a collapse in prices was a major factor in the dot.com crisis and the global financial crisis of 2007-09.

What these ideas have in common is intuitively obvious from an ‘eye test’ perspective. Still, the concepts are difficult to explain reliably using econometric data. In many instances, these men were mocked because their theories didn’t fit neatly into how the world was perceived, but all four have left a mark on how we interpret information in the 21st century.

The reason I’m running into their ideas more and more these days is that there’s as strong consensus among their adherents that their related theories are relevant again based on recent developments. They seem to be converging and so may ultimately amplify one another if the waves coincide.

The unifying theme is that growth is not just a smooth upward trend, but rather something that is driven by transformative forces that reorganize both production and finance. Innovation and technology have long been accepted as central engines of change, but their effects spill over into organizational forms, institutions, and credit. Furthermore, it seems long-run development is layered, meaning that broad technological shifts (i.e., long waves) interact with shorter sectoral shifts. The overlay of these disparate waves can amplify or dampen economic outcomes.

Bringing together four influential strands in economic thought, we can attempt to sketch a cohesive framework that explains long-run growth, structural change, and financial instability as different facets of a single dynamic process: innovations drive new opportunities, which reshape the economy’s structure and distribution, while finance amplifies and sometimes destabilizes that process.

The four thinkers illuminate different angles of a single dynamic: innovation drives growth and structural transformation; the financial system amplifies this process but can sow instability; long-run waves reflect broad technological revolutions, while distributional changes concern who benefits.

A cohesive Dynamic Innovation–Structure–Finance framework captures how technology, sectoral change, credit, and policy interact across time to produce growth, inequality, and crises. It suggests a prescription of balanced policies that nurture innovation while guarding against financial fragility. The economy evolves through the interaction of four interdependent engines: Technology/Innovation, Structural Change, Finance, and Policy/Institutions.

Let’s look at the mechanisms and phases in more detail

Long Kondratiev Wave:

Each wave is anchored by a broad technological revolution (historical examples include steam/rail, electricity/chemicals, information/communication:  the latest is internet / AI). Each wave drives sustained investment, productivity gains, and demographic/urban changes.

Mid-cycle Kuznets Structural Shifts: Continue Reading…

Vanguard is cautious on behalf of Retirees

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Image coutesy MoneySense/Freepik

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column has just been published. Click on hypertext for full column: Why Vanguard’s ETF aimed at retirees is currently cautious in its asset allocation.

The column originated from a mid-January Vanguard Canada briefing with two of its economists held for the Canadian media in downtown Toronto. You can find at least two news stories on the web filed shortly after the event by Bloomberg News and Investment Executive.

While the general thrust of the press conference was on the opportunities for Canada in A.I. and materials stocks (chiefly gold and silver miners), the Q&A allowed me to probe Vanguard about something that has intrigued me for the past year: As a semi-retired investor who recently started a RRIF, I regard one particular Vanguard ETF as a big part of my core portfolio, along with low-volatility ETFs from BMO ETFs, and income-oriented ETFs from vendors you may see in blogs  on this site.

After the Liberation Day craziness of April 2025, I became more defensive, though my Asset Allocation is not (yet) to the point the Rule of Thumb that your age should equal your Fixed Income: that would suggest in my case I should have 28% in Equities and 72% Fixed Income.

One core fund for retirees is VRIF, the Vanguard Retirement Income Fund, which is one of several funds often mentioned by the Retirement Club (see this introductory blog on the Club co-founded by blogger Dale Roberts of  . ) It trades on the TSX under the ticker symbol VRIF.

The screenshot below from Vanguard’s brochure shows VRIF’s holdings of Vanguard ETFs and performance to the end of 2025.

 

I first started a position in VRIF soon after its launch in 2020.  At the time, its Asset Allocation seemed to be around 50% stocks to 50% bonds, spread around all geographies in the normal proportions.

However, as 2025 proceeded I noticed that VRIF had begun steadily to cut back on its equity exposure and raise its Fixed Income, almost to the point of 30/70.  I’ve also noticed various YouTube videos from Vanguard’s U.S. parent that suggest similar caution: a cutting back from the big US growth mega cap stocks and a move more to other developed and emerging economies around the world.

If you read the VRIF launch news release, it emphasizes the objective is to provide income-seeking investors with a “targeted 4% annual payout.” That happens to be in line with William Bengen’s famous 4% Rule, which is “fine with me,” as I quipped at the media briefing.

In response to my query, Vanguard Canada spokesman Matthew Gierasimczuk said VRIF’s asset allocation varies over time” but the goal is the targeted 4% Return: Vanguard sees a “more optimistic outlook on bonds and Fixed Income: better to lock in without risk of equities.”

Kevin Khang, Vanguard

Then Kevin Khang, Vanguard’s head of global economic research  [pictured left] reiterated that the ETF seeks to fund a “certain level of payout: bonds in our view can achieve the desired certain level of payout” and “the US stock market is pretty expensive for obvious reasons: the US is reasonably valued and bonds are very normally valued; which is a new thing.” From 2009 to  2022, since the Great Financial Crisis, bonds in general didn’t pay much, which upset people in 2022-223 when rates went up but now they are reasonably valued: relative to inflation they are paying a decent Real Return.”

Here’s the sector weightings for VRIF at the end of 2025:

Vanguard rates its volatility as “low.” Notice the weightings of certain sectors often overweighted in pure low-volatility ETFs (like those from BMO and Harvest): Health Care, Consumer Staples and Utilities. As you can see above, the weightings in more volatile sectors like Technology and Financials is much higher.

For the MoneySense column I was subsequently referred to Head of Product for Vanguard Canada, Aime Bwakira. The rationale for VRIF’s high fixed-income exposure appears to be one of not taking more risk than you need to take, a stance which is apt for the retirees VRIF caters to. Bwakira confirmed Vanguard “has been leaning more heavily toward bonds — particularly higher quality and corporate bonds — than in past years while staying within its equity guardrails” of a minimum 30% and maximum 60%.  This positioning “reflects the current environment and the results of our capital markets projections.”

3 reasons Vanguard is boosting Fixed Income in VRIF

The rationale is three-fold:

First is higher interest rates. Bonds — especially corporate bonds — are paying more than they did for many years post the 20008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC): “This makes them well‑suited to support VRIF’s 4% income target without taking on unnecessary stock-market risk. VRIF includes corporate bond exposure specifically to help enhance yield for investors.

Second, given today’s market outlook, the fund’s model has shifted toward fixed income because bonds “currently provide a more favourable balance of expected return and risk.”  I was also referred to  Vanguard’s current VCMM 10-year projections (VCMM = Vanguard Capital Markets Model) for various asset classes. It’s also published in the US for US investors Vanguard Capital Markets Model® forecasts | Vanguard.

Dated January 22, 2026, the document states that “Even at current stretched valuations, rising earnings growth could provide momentum for stocks in the near term. However, our conviction is growing stronger that long-term prospects for U.S. equities are subdued. Our model anticipates annualized returns of about 3.9% to 5.9% over the next 10 years.” It adds that “Our muted long-term return projection for U.S. equities is entirely consistent with our more bullish prospects for an AI-led U.S. economic boom.”

The third and most important point raised by Bwakira is that “a higher allocation to bonds helps VRIF deliver reliable cash flows, which is central to its mandate. Because income needs don’t disappear during market volatility, VRIF prioritizes stability and sustainability in its payout. VRIF aims to maintain the value of an investor’s initial investment over the long term. Tilting toward bonds during periods of elevated equity market uncertainty helps protect investors from large drawdowns while still supporting the payout.”

VRIF is one popular source of Retiree income at the new Retirement Club

This common-sense caution has not gone unnoticed by Canadian retirees seeking stable income. VRIF is a well-regarded ETF members of the Retirement Club, founded by Cutthecrapinvesting blogger Dale Roberts and partner Brent Schmidt. One of the club’s monthly Zoom presentations in the autumn of 2025 highlighted VRIF among several other income sources for retirees. Roberts has long championed VRIF, as in this blog on his site originally written after the launch, and subsequently updated: most recently in this version. Continue Reading…

Why your Grandparents’ Investment Strategy may no longer be enough

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Image by Unsplash

By Devin Partida

Special to Financial Independence Hub

The investment playbook has changed. It may have performed well for the last several generations, but finding financial stability is a different game in the 2020s. The best practices established by your grandparents have become obsolete. Therefore, you should look to new financial horizons to establish financial freedom in a way that is more accommodating to modern dynamism and volatility.

How traditional Investment Strategies fail to adapt

The contemporary investing landscape is different from that of the last several decades. The techniques of previous generations are less viable. While you may ask your parents or grandparents for investing advice, their strategies could minimize your wealth generation and financial opportunities.

Most of your grandparents likely maintained a portfolio that followed a simple framework:  the 60/40 rule. Place 60% of your money in reliable stocks or index funds and the rest in high-interest-rate bonds. Today, this is far from the portfolio diversity modern experts want to see. These kinds of portfolios are only growing 2.2% a year now, so professionals are recommending even more varied investments, including precious metals, collectibles, venture capital and private equity, to name a few.

Past portfolios worked alongside robust pensions that were once common in the workforce. It is less common now for this type of security to supplement a 60/40 portfolio. These factors, combined with lengthening lifespans, mean nest eggs are ill-equipped to make it through potential market downturns and the entire length of your retirement. If you are living in retirement longer than previous generations, then the money has to work for you longer.

Why Economic Shifts demand a different Investment Approach

Interest rates have collapsed, and bond prices are mostly trending less than in previous decades, making them unsuitable for outpacing inflation. This reality is why people are seeking even more places to put their money.

The democratization of investments, such as the rise of cryptocurrencies, has also made market understanding more complex. Pair this with exchange-traded funds (ETFs), real estate investment trusts, non-fungible tokens and more, and you have the most enigmatic market history has ever seen: long gone are the days of just relying on blue-chip stocks.

Additionally, retirement savings have become more of a personal responsibility as the number of pension plans has decreased by millions since 1975. An IRA or a 401(k) is the more common route nowadays, as they are cheaper and less risky for employers. Now, many could view their investments as a replacement for what could have been a pension.

Ultimately, the set-it-and-forget-it model of your grandparents’ investment strategies is missing the wealth-generating opportunities you need to prepare for retirement in this climate. The rising cost of living, the financial influence of technological advancements and geopolitical tensions are only a few other factors that could shape how you divert your money.

Ways to Adapt to increase Risk Tolerance and Wealth

You can diversify while still embracing security. It will allow you to prepare for the unexpected. For example, your grandparents’ generation likely faced fewer natural disasters, as climate stressors have increased in recent years. In 2024, natural disasters caused at least $368 billion in economic damage worldwide, affecting people and their financial well-being.

These are the best ways to consider external factors outside of your control while taking advantage of how the investor market looks today.

Craft your Investment Goals

Many choose to work with a financial adviser, but you should start planning by identifying short-, medium- and long-term goals. These could involve buying a house, starting a business or building for retirement. Each goal has a time frame, allowing you to make informed decisions about your risk. At this stage, evaluating the stability of your job, debt and household expenses is critical. Continue Reading…