Building Wealth

For the first 30 or so years of working, saving and investing, you’ll be first in the mode of getting out of the hole (paying down debt), and then building your net worth (that’s wealth accumulation.). But don’t forget, wealth accumulation isn’t the ultimate goal. Decumulation is! (a separate category here at the Hub).

Justwealth: The advantages of Evidence-based Investing

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One of the most important developments in the financial world in recent years has been the growth of evidence-based investing. But what exactly is it? In the first of a new series of exclusive articles for Justwealth, the UK based author and journalist Robin Powell explains why founding your investment strategy on four basic principles can dramatically improve your chances of achieving your long-term goals.

By Robin Powell, The Evidence-Based Investor 

Special to Financial Independence Hub

It takes between seven and nine years to train to be a doctor in Canada. For surgeons it takes as many as 14. Even then, both doctors and surgeons are required to engage in continuous learning throughout their careers.

Becoming a financial adviser, investment consultant or money manager is considerably less onerous. What’s more, unless you deliberately set out to defraud your clients, you’re unlikely to be stripped of your right to operate.

Of course, there are still examples of poor medical practice. It was only as recently as the early 1990s that a group of epidemiologists at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario, first coined the phrase evidence-based medicine. Sadly, though, professional malpractice in the investing industry is far more common, and there are many who have worked in it for decades and yet act as if they have little or no grasp of the evidence on how investing works.

A glaring illustration of this is a study published in May 2018 called The Misguided Belief of Financial Advisers. The researchers analyzed the returns achieved by around 4,400 advisers across Canada: both for their clients and for themselves. They found that the advisers made the same mistakes investing their own money as they did when investing their clients’ money.

For example, they traded too frequently, chased returns, preferred expensive, actively managed funds, and weren’t sufficiently diversified. All of those things have been shown, time and again, to lead to lower returns. On average, the clients of the advisers analyzed underperformed the market by around three per cent a year: a huge margin.

What is evidence-based investing?

In recent years, we’ve seen the development of what’s called evidence-based investing (EBI). Like evidence-based medicine, it entails the ongoing critical appraisal of evidence, rather than relying on traditional practices or expert opinions.

So what sort of evidence are we talking about? Essentially there are four main elements to the evidence that underpins EBI.

First, the evidence is based on research that is genuinely independent; in other words, the research wasn’t paid for or subsidized by organizations with a vested interest in the outcome.

Secondly, it’s peer-reviewed. This means that the findings are published in a peer-reviewed journal which is closely examined by experts on the subject.

Thirdly, the evidence is time-tested. Investment strategies often succeed over short time periods, but fail over longer ones. Investors should disregard any evidence that hasn’t stood the test of time.

Finally, the evidence results from rigorous data analysis. As everyone knows, data can be very misleading if it hasn’t been properly analysed.

The good news is that, even when all four of these filters are strictly applied, there is still plenty of evidence to inform our investment decisions. Since the 1950s, finance departments at universities across the globe have produced many thousands of relevant studies.

What does the evidence tell us?

What, then, are the main lessons from academic research on investing? This is a wide-ranging subject, and one we’ll look at in more detail in future articles, but there are four main takeaways.

Markets are broadly efficient

Because markets are competitive and prices reflect all knowable information, it’s very hard to identify stocks, bonds or entire asset classes which are either undervalued or overvalued at any one time. No, prices aren’t perfect, but they’re the most reliable guide we have as to how much a security is worth.

Diversification is an investor’s friend

It’s vital for investors to diversify across different asset classes, economic sectors and regions of the world. As well as reducing your risk, diversification can also improve your returns in the long run, and it is rightly referred to as “the only free lunch in investing.”

Costs make a big difference

The investing industry and the media tend to focus on investment performance. But while performance comes and goes, fees and charges never falter. Continue Reading…

An Evidence-based guide to investing

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What’s the point of investing, anyway? We invest our money for future consumption, with the idea that we’ll earn a higher rate of return from investing in a portfolio of stocks and bonds than we will from holding cash.

But where does this equity premium come from? And how do we capture it without taking on more risk than is needed? Moreover, how do we control our natural instincts of fear, greed, and regret so that we can stay invested long enough to achieve our expected rate of return?

For decades, regular investors have put their trust in the expertise of stockbrokers and advisors to build a portfolio of stocks and bonds. In the 1990s, mutual funds became the investment vehicle of choice to build a portfolio. Both of these approaches were expensive and relied on active management to select investments and time the market.

At the same time, a growing body of evidence suggested that stock markets were largely efficient, with all of the known information for stocks already reflected in their prices. Since markets collect the knowledge of all investors around the world, it’s difficult for any one investor to have an advantage over the rest.

The evidence also showed how risk and return are intertwined. In most cases, the greater the risk, the higher the reward (over the long-term). This is the essence of the equity-risk premium – the excess return earned from investing in stocks over a “risk-free” rate (treasury bills).

Evidence-based investing also highlights the benefit of diversification. Since it’s nearly impossible to predict which asset class will outperform in the short-term, investors should diversify across all asset classes and regions to reduce risk and increase long-term returns.

As low-cost investing alternatives emerged, such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that passively track the market, the evidence shows that fees play a significant role in determining future outcomes. Further evidence shows that fees are the best predictor of future returns, with the lowest fees leading to the highest returns over the long term.

Finally, it’s impossible to correctly and consistently predict the short-term ups and downs of the market. Stock markets can be volatile in the short term but have a long history of increasing in value over time. The evidence shows staying invested, even during market downturns, leads to the best long-term investment outcomes.

Evidence-based Guide to Investing

So, what factors impact successful investing outcomes? This evidence based investing guide will reinforce the concepts discussed above, while addressing the real-life burning questions that investors face throughout their investing journey.

Questions like, should you passively accept market returns or take a more active role with your investments, should you invest a lump sum immediately or dollar cost average over time, should you invest when markets are at all-time highs, should you use leverage to invest, and how much home country bias is enough?

To answer these questions, I looked at the latest research on investing and what variables or factors can impact successful outcomes. Here’s what I found:

Passive vs. Active Investing

The thought of investing often evokes images of the world’s greatest investors, such as Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Ray Dalio: skilled money managers who used their expertise to beat the stock market and make themselves and their clients extraordinarily wealthy.

But one man who arguably did more for regular investors than anyone else is the late Jack Bogle, who founded the Vanguard Group. He pioneered the first index fund, and championed low-cost passive investing decades before it became mainstream.

Jack Bogle’s investing philosophy was to capture market returns by investing in low-cost, broadly diversified, passively-managed index funds.

“Passive investing” is based on the efficient market hypothesis: that share prices reflect all known information. Stocks always trade at their fair market value, making it difficult for any one investor to gain an edge over the collective market.

Passive investors accept this theory and attempt to capture the returns of all stocks by owning them “passively” through an index-tracking mutual fund or ETF. This approach avoids trying to pick winning stocks, and instead owns the market as a whole in order to collect the equity risk premium.

The equity risk premium explains how investors are rewarded for taking on higher risk. More specifically, it’s the difference between the expected returns earned by investors when they invest in the stock market over an investment with zero risk, like government bonds.

Bogle’s first index fund – the Vanguard 500 – was founded in 1976. At the time, Bogle was almost laughed out of business, but nearly 50 years later, Vanguard is one of the largest and most respected investment firms in the world. Who’s laughing now?

In contrast, opponents of the efficient market hypothesis believe it is possible to beat the market and that share prices are not always representative of their fair market value. Active investors believe they can exploit these price anomalies, which can be observed when trends or momentum send certain stocks well above or below their fundamental value. Think of the tech bubble in the late 1990s when obscure internet stocks soared in value, or the 2008 great financial crisis when bank stocks got obliterated.

Comparing passive vs. active investing

Spoiler alert: there is considerable academic and empirical evidence spanning 70 years to support the theory that passive investing outperforms active investing.

The origins of passive investing dates back to the 1950s when economist Harry Markowitz developed Modern Portfolio Theory. Markowitz argued that it’s possible for investors to design a portfolio that maximizes returns by taking an optimal amount of risk. By holding many securities and asset classes, investors could diversify away any risk associated with individual securities. Modern Portfolio Theory first introduced the concept of risk-adjusted returns.

In the 1960s, Eugene Fama developed the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which argued that investors cannot beat the market over the long run because stock prices reflect all available information, and no one has a competitive information advantage. Continue Reading…

Beat the TSX portfolio, Canadian Wide Moats rule

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By Dale Roberts, cutthecrapinvesting

Special to Financial Independence Hub

In this Sunday Reads we’ll begin with a look at the first half returns for the Beat The TSX Portfolio and the Canadian Wide Moat Portfolios. The Beat The TSX Portfolio is a pure value play, discovered by those big dividends. The Canadian Wide Moat Portfolio relies on the moats – a lack of competition. There are a few key oligopoly sectors in Canada. While both Canadian stock portfolio approaches have a nice history of beating the market, the BTSX is more volatile, while the Wide Moats are more low volatility by design. The BTSX Portfolio continues to struggle while the Wide Moats continue to best the market.

Here’s the updated post on The Beat The TSX Portfolio.

For the first half of 2024, it’s 6% vs 1.3% in favour of the passive TSX Composite.

And here’s the updated post for the Canadian Wide Moat Portfolios.

The wide moat portfolio has beat the TSX by some 1.6% annual over the last decade. That said, it has underperformed from 2023. I can still find no better model for the large cap Canadian space. It tracks closely to (but slightly outperforms) the BMO Low Volatility ETF – ZLB.TO.

Shareholder yield

I really liked this post and screen in the Globe & Mail (sub required). Companies that have a lot of free cash flow typically perform very well. They can buy back shares (increasing your ownership) and pay bigger and increasing dividends. We call that combination the shareholder yield. The screen also looked at valuation, quality and more. Here’s where it landed. It’s a nice sixpack …

And check out the buy back and dividend history for Canadian Natural Resources. My favourite oil and gas stock …

More on oil and gas …

The markets last week Continue Reading…

Are Alternative Investments really the Holy Grail of Investing?

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By Michael J. Wiener

Special to Financial Independence Hub 

Tony Robbins’ latest book, The Holy Grail of Investing, written with Christopher Zook, is a strong sales pitch for investors to move into alternative investments such as private equity, private credit, and venture capital.

I decided to give it a chance to challenge my current plans to stay out of alternative investments.  The book has some interesting parts — mainly the interviews with several alternative investment managers — but it didn’t change my mind.

The book begins with the usual disclaimers about not being intended “to serve as the basis for any financial decision” and not being a substitute for expert legal and accounting advice.  However, it also has a disclosure:

“Tony Robbins is a minority passive shareholder of CAZ Investments, an SEC registered investment advisor (RIA).  Mr. Robbins does not have an active role in the company.  However, as shareholder, Mr. Robbins and Mr. Zook have a financial incentive to promote and direct business to CAZ Investments.”

This disclosure could certainly make a reader suspect the authors’ motives for their breathless promotion of the benefits of alternative investments and their reverence for alternative investment managers.  However, I chose to ignore this and evaluate the book’s contents for myself.

The most compelling part of the pitch was that “private equity produced average annual returns of 14.28 percent over the thirty-six-year period ending in 2022.  The S&P 500 produced 9.24 percent.”  Unfortunately, the way private equity returns are calculated is misleading, as I explained in an earlier post.  The actual returns investors get is lower than these advertised returns.

Ray Dalio and uncorrelated investment strategies

The authors frequently repeat that Ray “Dalio’s approach is to utilize eight to twelve uncorrelated investment strategies.”  However, if the reported returns of alternative investments are fantasies, then their correlation values are fantasies as well.  I have no confidence as an investor that my true risk level would be as low as it appears.

Much of the rest of the authors’ descriptions of alternative investments sounds good, but there is no good reason for me to believe that I would get better returns than if I continue to own public equities.

I choose not to invest in individual stocks because I know that I’d be competing against brilliant investors working full-time.  I don’t place my money with star fund managers because I can’t predict which few managers will outperform by enough to cover their fees.  These problems look even worse to me in the alternative investment space.  I don’t lack confidence, but I try to be realistic about going up against the best in the world. Continue Reading…

9 Business Leaders Share their most Impactful Financial Independence Milestones

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Photo by Karolina Kaboompics on Pexels

In the quest for Financial Independence, milestones vary from mastering debt to embracing minimalism.

We’ve gathered insights from nine professionals, including Finance Experts and Founders, to share their personal triumphs. Discover how these individuals have navigated their paths from mastering debt through frugality to paying off mortgages independently.

  • Mastering Debt through Frugality
  • Achieving Total Debt Freedom
  • Securing a Higher-Paying Job
  • Early Retirement through Real Estate
  • Eliminating Debt with Side Hustles
  • Embracing a Debt-Free Minimalist Life
  • Regulating Finances with Nervous System
  • Strategically Paying off Student Loans
  • Paying Off Mortgage Independently

Mastering Debt through Frugality

Each milestone marked an important stage towards a more confident future on this road to Financial Independence. One turning point occurred when I became a master of managing Debt and adopted frugality as my way of life.

Although, in my pursuit of financial freedom, it dawned on me that Debt was both a burden and a tool; this happened at the time when I decided to confront my debts openly. Eventually, I divided them by interest rates and then talked with lenders about much better repayment terms. With discipline and focus, little by little, I got rid of a mountain of debts while coming closer to financial liberty after each payment.

Another significant landmark was when I began practicing frugality. For instance, being mindful of small savings that accumulate over time into significant wealth-creation opportunities has been one key lesson that I learned from this approach. In other words, I dissected every expense into what need was involved for its necessity or want and became good at finding creative ways to save without losing sight of the quality of life. 

Whether it is meal planning or relying on loyalty programs or DIY solutions; being frugal does not mean living without but instead making conscious decisions towards personal financial objectives.

Whenever I look back on the path that led me toward my financial independence, I don’t see these checkpoints as just what they are; instead, I think of them as turning points in how I think and act. Learning how to manage debt properly and adopting a saving lifestyle have given me complete autonomy over my financial future, thus laying down a foundation for abundance and stability.  –– Arifful Islam, Finance Expert, Sterlinx Global LTD

Achieving Total Debt Freedom

One of the biggest milestones on my journey to Financial Independence was finally becoming 100% debt-free. This achievement felt especially meaningful because it required a serious commitment to smart money management and embracing a frugal lifestyle.

Early in my career, I was weighed down by a ton of student loans and racked up credit-card balances. I realized all that debt was just holding me back from reaching my bigger financial goals and living the life I really wanted. So, I made a decision to make paying it all off as fast as possible my top priority.

I started by creating a super-detailed budget that accounted for every dollar of income and expenses. Then I looked for any areas where I could cut back on non-essential splurging: like eating out, entertainment, shopping sprees, etc. Any money I could free up got funneled directly towards making bigger debt payments, focusing on the highest-interest accounts first.

At the same time, I fully embraced a more frugal, minimalist lifestyle overall. I learned to appreciate simple, free pleasures and find joy in experiences over buying a bunch of material stuff. I also hustled to increase my income through side gigs like freelancing or selling unwanted items.

Through diligent budgeting, living frugally, and a strategic debt repayment plan, I managed to become 100% debt-free within just a few years. Not only did it drastically improve my overall financial situation, but it gave me this incredible sense of freedom and control over my life. It laid the foundation for even bigger money wins down the road while teaching me the value of living below my means to prioritize long-term goals. –– Loretta Kilday, DebtCC Spokesperson, Debt Consolidation Care

Securing a Higher-Paying Job

The most critical milestone I reached was getting a job that paid more than just “enough.” I’ve tried freelancing, selling online, starting a website, doing social media, and I even tried digital marketing for a startup. But it wasn’t until I got a plain old job that just paid more than I needed that I found everything I needed: peace of mind, freedom from debt, the start of a retirement fund, and more.

For anyone who’s struggling even $50 makes the difference between starving or surviving: I suggest just building your skills and portfolio and moving up to better-paying jobs. Get the certainty and security that comes from a regular salary, one that allows you to pay all your bills and gives you breathing space.

Once that’s done, you have the room to plan for the future, to pay off debt, to organize your finances so that if you want to budget, it’s actually possible. — Debashri Dutta, Founder, Dmdutta.com

Early Retirement through Real Estate

Being able to retire in my early Thirties was a significant milestone toward Financial Independence. I started investing in real estate in my twenties, and I had to work two jobs and live frugally to afford a down payment. 

But today? I don’t have to worry about working a job I’m not particularly passionate about. Instead, I can spend my time doing what matters more to me, like coaching others who want to escape the rat race and build financial security for themselves. 

Bottom line: If you have a goal in mind, short-term sacrifices will be worth it in the long run. — Ryan Chaw, Founder and Real Estate Investor, Newbie Real Estate Investing

Eliminating Debt with Side Hustles

I gained Financial Independence through hard work and side hustles. The biggest milestone I achieved was paying off US$60,000 in student loans. That debt was debilitating, and I was able to pay it all off by devoting all the money I made from side hustles to debt reduction. After I paid off my student loans, I used the same methods to pay off the house.

The next milestone that was incredibly important to me was having US$250,000 in savings. That milestone was important because it felt like the investment income began to snowball. It also felt like my hard work was paying off, and it made it easier to make the effort to save money after that point because I felt it working. — Jonathan Geserick, Managing Attorney, Texas Probate Pros

Embracing a Debt-Free Minimalist Life

I had a business go very south about 10-15 years ago. I held on way too long because it was “my baby.” Because of this, I racked up a lot of debt that I really knew I shouldn’t have, trying to save the business.

I moved that debt into a very low-interest situation long ago, which allowed me to pay a very small amount towards the principal and interest every month. That was a great solution; however, I recently decided to just pay the whole thing off. Continue Reading…