Building Wealth

For the first 30 or so years of working, saving and investing, you’ll be first in the mode of getting out of the hole (paying down debt), and then building your net worth (that’s wealth accumulation.). But don’t forget, wealth accumulation isn’t the ultimate goal. Decumulation is! (a separate category here at the Hub).

Most asset classes should have positive returns in 2020 but investors should lower expectations

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‘Tis the season for the annual investment outlook, with a new year and some might argue a new decade ahead of us. While some pundits hold fire on their prognostications until January, a few big-name investment firms have just come out with their 2020 prognostications.

Among the early entrants was Franklin Templeton, which provided its predictions last week in Montreal and again yesterday (Dec. 10th) in Toronto. Also yesterday, Vanguard put out a release headlined Economic and Market Outlook 2020: Lower Growth Expectations in the New Age of Uncertainty.

Franklin Templeton is a well-known manager of actively managed mutual funds, and has now been in Canada for 65 years, going back to Sir John Templeton’s famous Templeton Growth Fund.  Vanguard is best known for its “passive” or indexing approach to investing, both through index mutual funds and ETFs, although it is also an active manager. But their respective outlooks for the next year and decade are not too different, with investment returns projected to stay positive, albeit with cautions to investors not to expect quite as strong returns as they have received in the last decade.

Vanguard said global growth is set to slow in 2020, driven by US and China trade concerns and continued political uncertainty leading to depressed global economic activity.

Vanguard senior investment strategist Todd Schlanger

Todd Schlanger, senior investment strategist at Vanguard Canada, said: “Investors should prepare for a lower-return environment over the next decade, with periods of market volatility in the near-term. We expect uncertainty stemming from geopolitics, policymaking, and trade tensions to undermine global growth over the coming year … For Canada, the picture is slightly rosier, with a resilient labour market and robust wage growth leading to growth levels stronger than most developed economies in 2020, with a slight improvement over 2019.”

Vanguard’s main bullet points were these:

  • It forecasts continued slowdown in global growth but Canada will be a bright spot among developed economies: Canadian growth is forecast at 1.6%, U.S. growth forecast at 1.0%, Eurozone, 1.0%, China at 5.8%
  • Canadian equity market returns are forecast to be  3.5%-5.5%, annualized over the next ten years
  • Canadian fixed income returns are likely to be 1.5%-2.5%, annualized over the next ten years.

Vanguard says global central banks have moved from expected policy tightening heading into 2019 to additional policy stimulus amid weakening growth outlooks and inflation shortfalls this year. It expects the US federal reserve to cut the federal funds rate by 25 to 20 basis points before the end of 2020. However, it expects the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates at current levels throughout 2020. While Canadian growth is stable, rising household debt levels and high exposure to global economic uncertainty “skew the balance of risks to the downside.” Schlanger advises Canadian investors to prepare for volatility over lack of trade clarity and slowing economic growth in the U.S. by maintaining diversified portfolios, keeping investment costs low and focusing on the long term while tuning out the daily noise.

Global stocks still have more performance potential than global bonds

Meanwhile, Franklin Templeton believes global stocks have “greater performance potential than global bonds, supported by continued global growth.” Over the next seven years it forecasts strong return potential for both bonds and equities in Emerging Markets. And with short-term interest rates below historical averages, “we see a lower performance potential for government bonds.”

William Yun, Franklin Templeton Multi-asset Solutions

Franklin Templeton recommends a multi-asset approach to deal with an environment of desyncronized global growth and moderate inflation worldwide.

Bill Yun, executive vice president and investment strategist for Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions (pictured left) said the firm’s 7-year outlook for Canadian bonds the next 7 years is about 1.8% a year, versus 4.8% the past 20 years. Equity return expectations are all positive but reduced from the performance of the prior 20 years: 6% going forward for Canadian equities, versus a historical 7.2%; 6.1% for US equities compared to 6.2% the previous two decades; International equities are projected to return 5.9% versus an historic 4.1%; Emerging Markets 7.1 versus 9% historic, and hedge funds 5.75 compared to 6.4% in the past.

Global central banks have little ammo left

One positive for Canada is that the Bank of Canada has more room to cut rates to cope with an economic slowdown than most central banks in the rest of the world. Canada and the US both have room to cut but Europe does not, Yun said. Some rates are negative in parts of Europe. Continue Reading…

Should you roll the dice with your retirement savings?

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By Dale Roberts, Cutthecrapinvesting

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

You’ve worked for decades to build your retirement nest egg. You have invested smartly. The investment portfolio is required to fund a significant portion of your retirement years. In fact, you need those monies to last for many decades. Should you invest in an all-stock portfolio? That approach might deliver greater income than the traditional stock and bond portfolio.

Yup. More stocks might deliver more growth. No one can deny that stocks are the growth engine of a portfolio. When we own stocks we become business owners and we share in the success (or failure) of those companies. In the past, owning a big basket of market-leading companies has worked out more than well.

When stocks earn 8% we can spend 8%?

Retirement funding is tricky business. It’s much more complicated than the accumulation stage. The sequence of returns does not matter that much at all when we are building our portfolios, and we have decades until that retirement start date. We might see several good years that are followed by two or three bad years. Those bad years will not affect your retirement readiness when you have decades to recover. A savvy investor will even enjoy those bad years as the stocks go ‘on sale’.

But in retirement the order of stock market and portfolio returns do matter. That’s called sequence-of-returns risk. A bad year or a few bad years early in retirement can permanently impair your portfolio and your retirement. Even before that retirement start date we are already in the retirement risk zone.

But stocks beat the crap out of bonds

Most retirees and most financial planners will add some bonds to the portfolios of retirees. Those bonds work like shock absorbers. While there is no guarantee, good bonds have a habit of going up in price when stocks get hit hard. This is typical retirement planning ‘thinking’. And yes, there are other weapons besides bonds.

On Twitter we had a very robust discussion on retirement funding and risk. Financial Planner Ed Rempel defended the all-stock portfolio for retirees. And he provided some support with this chart:

According to Mr. Rempel, the success rate for an all equity portfolio is 97% for a period that spans over 100 years. Success is defined as the retiree being able to spend at 4% of the portfolio value, every year, with an adjustment equal to inflation. Of course that’s called the 4% rule. That’s a retirement planning benchmark that is useful, but is then usually disposed of for dozens of reasons. For Boomer and Echo I had asked if there was a new normal for Canadian retirees . Continue Reading…

Sixth Sense or Nonsense? Removing intuition from the investment process

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By Noah Solomon

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

In a recent newspaper article, a Canadian investment executive described why he chose not to incorporate artificial intelligence (AI) into his firm’s portfolio management process. His reasoning was based on the distinctively human ability to “read a room” and gauge the sincerity of corporate management teams, which cannot be replicated by a machine or algorithm.

Even if you believe that investment professionals possess this “sixth sense,” the simple fact is that it has not enabled them to produce superior results. According to the latest SPIVA (S&P Index vs. Active) Canada report card, over the past 10 years:

  • 91% of Canadian equity funds underperformed the TSX Composite Index
  • 97% of U.S. equity funds underperformed the S&P 500 Index
  • 100% of Canadian dividend-focused funds underperformed the TSX Dividend Aristocrats Index

Aside from the alleged ability to gauge the truthfulness of a person’s statements, there is another human characteristic that AI lacks. Unlike their human counterparts, AI algorithms do not have emotions or cognitive biases, which often lead to poor investment decisions.

We have met the enemy – and the Enemy is Us

The field of behavioural economics studies the effects of psychological, cognitive and emotional factors on the economic decisions of individuals and institutions. This field has produced countless studies that have conclusively demonstrated that when it comes to investment decisions, people harbour subconscious biases that result in suboptimal results. Moreover, these biases are not restricted to individual investors, but also permeate the decisions of professional managers and institutions. Continue Reading…

How to manage a Side Hustle while studying full time

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 There’s no denying that getting your MBA — or any graduate degree — is a costly endeavor. Even if financial aid covers the cost of tuition, there’s still a raft of fees and the cost of books, moving, and living, which will vary widely depending on where you attend school. On top of all that, you have to give up your income for the next X years while you study.

Or do you? If the expenses are making you sweat, then you might be one of the many full-time students who consider taking on a side hustle.

What is a Side Hustle?

A side hustle is any job you do “on the side” to earn a little extra cash, whether it’s babysitting for your next-door neighbors, running social media for start-ups, or driving for Uber. It’s not your main focus, not what you center your life around, and certainly not what you’d answer when asked, “What do you do?,” but it’s a little bit of your time each week or month that brings in extra cash. If you’re lucky enough, you can get into a list of rich side-hustlers. Side hustles have been around since, well, paid work, but with the rise of the gig economy and the advent of public university tuitions, there are more students side-hustling than ever before.

Keep in mind that you took on a graduate degree to invest in yourself; if you end up sacrificing your studies for some extra pocket change … well, you shouldn’t need a finance class to tell you that’s bad economics. There’s no way your side hustle is lucrative enough to be worth NOT getting the most out of your degree, so if it comes down to making time for one or the other, your studies should always take priority. However, it’s also possible that you could be lucky enough to find a side hustle that actually enhances your degree by giving you experience in a relevant field.

Finding a Side Hustle

Often, the best side hustles arise purely by luck. Your favorite professor happens to need someone to do a little research for him or write up some case studies, or some other task related to your field of study, and you’re the man or woman for the job. Continue Reading…

Is buying a house a good investment? Usually, but here’s a case where it wasn’t

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Is buying a house a good investment? Recently we spoke to the son of one of our Successful Investor Wealth Management clients who has to make a decision about housing, but needs to look at it from a financial point of view.

He and his wife bought a small starter home on a tiny lot in an old part of downtown Toronto. They both work in the north end of the city, so they had a long commute. But they liked the neighbourhood, and a number of friends lived nearby.

New considerations came up after their first child’s birth.

As it happens, a family member owns an investment house in the north end of the city, in an area that’s renowned for having some of Toronto’s top public schools. It’s twice the size of their current home, half as old, worth three times as much, and is in livable condition. It has a driveway that can park three or four cars, plus a garage. In winter, it has room for an enormous backyard skating rink. In summer, it can accommodate barbeque get-togethers with 50 or more guests. The location makes the house an easier commute for both of them.

The family member/owner is willing to accept a yearly rent equal to 1.2% of the value of the home, which is less than his interest cost. He’s even agreeable to making modest improvements at his own expense, since he can write off the cost against his rental income. The house plays a key role in his estate plan, since it’s part of a long-term land-assembly project. He is willing to let them live there for as long as they want, or until he dies, with little if any change in the rent. He just wants a trouble-free tenant.

Is buying a house a good investment? Here’s a specific case where it wasn’t

They asked our advice on buying a house before, and they asked again when this sell-or-hold question came along.

Back in 2015, we told them the same thing we’ve repeatedly told other clients and Inner Circle members. Since the 2008/2009 recession, central banks in Canada, the U.S. and other countries have set off on a unique economic experiment. They have artificially pushed interest rates down to historically low levels, for two reasons: to keep the economy out of recession, and to make it possible to pay the interest costs on extraordinarily high and rising government debt.

Now, with this sell-or-hold decision to make, the situation has changed. House prices and interest rates have both gone up substantially. This means far more potential Toronto-area house buyers have been priced out of the market. In addition, the artificial interest-rate paradise is coming to an end. Interest rates have gone up and our view is that they will keep rising.

Our advice for this particular young family was to accept the sweet deal on the rental house, and sell the starter. They can save the money they’d otherwise pay on property taxes toward a down payment on their dream home. Their incomes are likely to rise, since they are in the prime of their careers, so they’ll have that much more to add to the dream-home fund. When they are ready to buy, here are some tips:

Is buying a house a good investment? 6 key real estate investing tips for Successful Investors

Tax pluses. Homeowners get a tax-free, rent-free benefit of having a place to live. Profits on sales of principal residences are also tax-free. Continue Reading…