Tag Archives: inflation

How much can you expect for investment returns?

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S&P 500 returns since the 1930s

By Dale Roberts

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

“How much am I going to make?”

That’s likely the most reasonable question that an investor could ask. When you sign up for a savings account or GIC it’s usually the rate of return that lured you in, or got your attention. We know that many savers are ‘rate chasers’. They go from bank to bank, playing each bank against the other bank, asking for more, asking for a higher interest rate on their savings account or GIC.

I often had clients brag to me that they could get a savings account at 1.5% at so-and-so bank or credit union. I’d reply “That’s great, go for it, but I work in investments, I’m talking about earning triple or quadruple or more than that rate over time.” Of course, I would always qualify that there was the potential to earn that greater rate or return.

Did I mention that 1.5% don’t impress me much?

Of course, at this stage of the conversation I would probe the client’s savings accounts and whether or not they had a more than ample Emergency Fund. Typically, advisors will suggest that you hold 3-6 months of total spending needs in a savings account. That said, everyone knows their own personal situation and what types of emergencies that might pop up – and potentially the costs of those emergencies.

Separate short-term and long-term money

Another important practice is to separate our short-term monies and our long-term monies. Once we’re covered with that short-term emergency bucket, we move on to growth and try to make our long-term monies work real hard. You will also have day–to-day monies in a chequing or savings account.

One of the biggest mistakes Canadians make is to have too much money in “high interest” savings accounts. Guess what? That 1-2% is not going to take you to the retirement promised land. In fact, monies in a savings account are usually going backwards, it’s not making you a dime once you factor in inflation. A long term historical average for inflation is in the area of 3%. If you’re earning 2% in a savings account, you’re losing 1% spending power, each year.

Your $100,000 that you have today might feel like (or spend like) $90,000 or less in ten years. Start to extrapolate that over a few decades and the effect is greatly exaggerated. Inflation is nasty. Here’s an example that will also show my age. When I was a kid, I would take 25 cents to the movies to buy treats. With those 25 pennies I would be able to buy a pop and chips, I think I may have also been able to buy a 3-pack of gum. Yes, I also spent a lot of time in the dentist’s chair. Can you get anything for a quarter these days? I didn’t think so. Talk about losing spending power. And no, I did not grow up in the era of the Great Depression. I ‘grew up’ in the best decades of all time: the 60s and the 70s.

Only stocks can outstrip inflation

Now certainly, the 70s experienced some ‘hyper’ inflation so the effect was exaggerated. But inflation is there and it’s powerful, even in the 2.5 – 3% range. Continue Reading…

It isn’t what it used to be: Prospects for interest rates and inflation

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When I talk to serious, successful investors, few ask, “Do you think the central banks will raise rates two or three times by a quarter-point before the end of the year?” or “Do you think inflation will hit 3% in the next year?” They are more likely to ask things like, “What are the chances that interest rates and/or inflation will get back up to the peaks of the 1970s/1980s?”

That is a much more important question.  A quarter-point change in interest rates or inflation is a fluctuation. A return to the peaks of the 1970s/1980s would be a disaster.

No one can predict the future, of course. The easy way out on the question would be to say, “Oh no, that could never happen again.” But the productive way to address a question like this is to look at those earlier decades and to try to figure out what was special about them.

It seems to me that in the years prior to those decades, three specific political/economic factors worked together to unlock a lot of pent-up demand for money, goods and services, and funnel it into a narrow timeframe where it could have great impact. These factors helped spur the rise in interest rates and inflation that followed.

The first factor was that, during four decades between the early 1930s and the early 1970s, the U.S. managed to fix the price of gold at around $35 U.S. per oz.

Greenback became a world currency in three crucial periods

This helped set up the U.S. dollar as something of a world currency during three crucial, historic periods: the 1930s depression, World War II and the post-war boom. The role of world-currency issuer let the U.S. expand its money supply without burdening itself with a heavy load of domestic inflation — not burdening itself right away, that is. But eventually the $35 gold peg gave way, like a dam that bursts when the force of a rising river becomes too much. The breaching of that $35 barrier helped set off a worldwide wave of inflation, as the value of the U.S. dollar withered in relation to the value of gold. Continue Reading…

Why and how Financial Independence is achievable

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By Jade Anderson

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Financial independence can mean different things to different people, but the widespread definition is to be financially secure and on the right track to a safe retirement.

Sometimes people will still need to work in order to maintain their financial independence (aka “Findependence”), but the main idea is that you are free from any debt or outside help from financial institutions. This may seem like something that is unachievable for anyone outside of retirement age, who isn’t well established; however, because of the different types of financial independence, it may not be so difficult after all. Adjusting your spending habits, creating a budget for your self and several other things can lead you towards Findependence, if you know the right things you need to consider.

Reduce unnecessary expenses

Setting up a budget for the long term is extremely important if you’re wanting to become financially independent. If you can cut down on any unnecessary expenses (such as extra food, clothing, and entertainment) in your weekly spending, then you’ll find it will be a lot easier to save. If you are not used to saving money, starting small is important because it will help you establish a pattern of saving properly, and it will be easier for you when you move up to saving more of your average income.

Plan your savings and spending

Planning not only your savings, but also your spending is crucial for ensuring your financial independence. If you have a few debts, and you can make plans to pay off certain amounts by certain dates, you’ll find that the overall debt is easier to pay off, than if you paid it off in a lump sum. Using one of the financial calculators like those on Brighter Finance can help you calculate your budget and repayment periods for your loans, so you can keep track of your money more easily.

Continue Reading…

When $70 Crude Oil doesn’t feel Like $70 Crude Oil

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By Jeff Weniger, CFA, WisdomTree Investments

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

“Judging by the oil market in the pre-OPEC era, a ‘normal’ market price might now be in the $5-10 range  … Last week Algeria’s energy minister declared, with only slight exaggeration, that prices might conceivably tumble ‘to $2 or $3 a barrel.’”

—The Economist, March 4, 1999

That quote feels like it was from a million years ago. A decade later, straight-faced economists would be talking about US$200 or US$300 per barrel. Times change.

With oil two years along in a bull rally that has witnessed its price triple from  lows in the first quarter of 2016, it may be just a matter of time before the purported list of stock market obstacles starts to include retail gasoline pain. With West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil changing hands at US$67.44 and Brent crude at US$73.26, it’s hard not to be scared off by our collective ups and downs at the gas station.1

After regular unleaded challenged US$4 a gallon — $3.695, to be precise2 — in the summer of 2014, many strategists began to fear the worst. Gasoline would once again deal the death blow to the American middle and lower classes, as it had a half-decade prior.

But 2014 marked the worst of it, at least for now. WTI crude oil collapsed from triple digits to less than $30 in early 2016. Retail gas followed along, to levels south of $1.80.

But it has quietly chipped back, closing the first quarter at $2.57, and $3 looms in the American psyche. Unlike in Canada, where expensive fossil fuel prices tend to benefit the federal budget, Alberta employment and so forth, Americans historically have had no similar solace outside of petroleum-rich Texas and Alaska, perhaps. It’s just a different economy. People remember the first time they saw a gas station post a price of $1, then $2, then $3. And at $4, that memory strikes the gut: the insolvency years.

Regular Canadians feel pain from expensive gasoline, for sure, but not quite like the pain that hits Americans.

Tie the threat of a national average of $3 per gallon south of the border, maybe during the Labor Day road trip, with the possibility that U.S. Fed Chairman Jay Powell may bring two or three more rate hikes of 25 basis points by this year’s close, and it is not much of a leap to be sympathetic to a thesis of a gasoline-induced blow to American consumer confidence. But be careful, because that thesis is flawed.

Whispers

The “whisper number” on Saudi aspirations for Brent crude is $80 to $100 per barrel. But Donald Trump was already tweeting angrily at $70 per barrel, so it is reasonable to assume that another $20 to $30 would unwind much progress on recently fruitful U.S.-Saudi relations. But suppose ROPEC — Russia plus OPEC — marks oil up to $100 anyway. Gasoline could be closer to $4 than $3 in that circumstance. Does that break the American consumer? A half-generation or a generation ago, yes — certainly. But psychological anchoring on round numbers like $100 or $3.00 deceives. Consider our analysis below.

Our 2018 Reality

Figure 1 places unleaded gasoline costs in context. The U.S. population of some 322 million people consists of 126 million households driving more than 3 trillion miles per year. But because millennials do not drive as much as their predecessors, the number of auto miles driven per household has fallen to less than 25,000 from a peak of 26,413 in 2004.

Additionally, today’s cars are essentially computers on wheels, and fuel efficiency is notably higher than it was in prior years.

Twenty years ago, the American new car fleet got 23.4 miles to the gallon.3 By 2008, it was virtually unchanged, at 24.3. But the U.S. got burned on triple-digit oil, making it somewhat politically palpable when the Obama administration pushed forward with mandated 54.5 mpg fuel economy targets for model year 2025. In pursuit of such efficiency, the new car fleet’s efficiency rose to 30.0 mpg for the 2017 crop. Continue Reading…

U.S. Inflation: A case of high anxiety?

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U.S. CPI vs. U.S. CPI ex-Food & Energy Year-over-Year Change from 1/31/2010 to 1/31/2018

By Kevin Flanagan, WisdomTree Investments

 Special to the Financial Independence Hub

There is no doubt that inflation fear has reared its ugly head early in 2018, impacting the money and bond markets in rather noteworthy fashion. Some key headline-grabbing measures, such as wages and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), have come in above consensus forecasts to start the year, fueling a case of high anxiety for the fixed income arena. Naturally, the million (or should it be billion?) dollar question is: Are these heightened inflation fears warranted?

As we entered the new year, consensus forecasts for inflation were that readings at both the overall and core (ex-food and energy) levels would essentially remain unchanged. Interestingly, economists’ projections have been revised upward of late and now post slightly elevated readings. Indeed, the CPI is now expected to come in at a year-over-year rate of +2.3%, or 0.2 percentage points (pp) higher than the prior projection. The alternate measure, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, has been changed to a +1.9% increase (also up 0.2 pp), with the core PCE gauge being lifted 0.1 pp to +1.8%. The bottom line is that these revised estimates now all look for some modest increase from 2017 levels.

What about the Federal Reserve (Fed)? For now, all investors have to go by is the policy makers’ December projections. The March FOMC meeting, scheduled for March 21st, will be the Fed’s next chance to make any potential adjustments to their prior forecasts.. The preferred measure is the PCE price index, and the policy makers provide projections for both the overall and core PCE gauges. The Fed’s central tendency estimate is similar to the revised market consensus, with a range of +1.7% to +1.9% for each index. It should be noted that both the economists’ and the Fed’s current PCE projections still fall below the +2.0% target laid out by the policy makers.

Let’s take another look

So, let’s take another look at the aforementioned wages and CPI numbers. Continue Reading…