All posts by Financial Independence Hub

Retirement Planning for Gen Xers: Build Wealth and Retire Happy

Posted By |
Image Lowrie Financial

By Steve Lowrie, CFA

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Are you a Gen Xer? Not quite a baby boomer, but too, ahem, mature to be a millennial? If you are in your 40s to mid-50s, your family financial planning has probably been on a wild ride lately. You may be wondering if you’ll ever get to retire with any wealth left to spend.

As we covered in “Retirement Planning for Baby Boomers”, you should also be incorporating retirement planning into your holistic financial planning. And, no, “I’ll just work forever” doesn’t count for peace of mind planning. Let’s take a look at what Gen X retirement planning looks like for many families.

Gen X Retirement Planning Essentials: Saving, Spending, and Investing

Whether you’re planning to fund your retirement or any other major life goal, the essentials aren’t so complicated. I’m reminded of a joke I heard a while back:

There was this guy, Joe, who dreamed of winning the lottery, so he prayed every day that he would. As time passed with no luck, his prayers grew more fervent. One day, he finally asked, “God, can you even hear me?” Lo, the heavens parted and he received his reply: “Joe, help me out here … Buy a lottery ticket!”

So it goes with planning for retirement, or any other short-term or long-term financial goals. Skip the obvious, and you’re unlikely to get very far.

Many Gen X families I meet come to me anxious to learn how to best invest their savings and make money in the market. This is important, and we can definitely help with that, as I’ll touch on below. But first, consider this from “The Psychology of Money” author Morgan Housel:

“Since you can build wealth without a high income, but have no chance of building wealth without a high savings rate, it’s clear which one matters more.”

In other words, despite all the speculative, FOMO (fear of missing out) investing hype you may be tempted to follow in the popular financial press, don’t lose sight of FIRST setting aside money today to build wealth for tomorrow. Consistently spending less than you’re earning (without piling up high-interest debt to do so) goes hand in hand with saving. THEN comes investing.

Gen X Retirement Planning Challenges

These retirement planning essentials aren’t complicated. But they’re often much easier said than done, given the hurdles that often stand in the way. You probably don’t need me to tell you about the Gen X-style financial challenges you and your family are grappling with. But I will anyway. You’re welcome. 😊

When you were new to adulthood, financial planning was simple. You were single, no dependents. Your job didn’t pay much, but you figured you were destined for greatness. Other than college debt, you had few demands on your income. Maybe your parents were even pitching in. If you decided to move, you and a few buddies could transport everything you owned in a rental van, and still have time left for pizza and brew at the end of the day.

That doesn’t seem so long ago. But now you’re in your 40s or 50s, and “simple” has become a distant memory. These days, you’re juggling your own short-term and long-term financial goals; your parents’ needs; your kids’ wants; Toronto-area housing challenges; and, oh yes, that little career-crushing pandemic. Plus, your youthful vigor isn’t quite what it used to be. As the late, great comedienne Joan Rivers once said, “You know you’ve reached middle age when you’re cautioned to slow down by your doctor, instead of by the police.”

I get that it’s hard to incorporate retirement planning into all of the above. Relative to your here-and-now financial needs, retirement probably feels too distant and too daunting to tackle today.

But take heart. You can actually use that distance between now and retirement as a force for good … your good. If you can include even a few retirement planning best practices into your life, they should have a larger-than-life impact on your family financial planning.

What are some of your power moves? Read on.

A Gen X Edge: The Power of Compound Returns

As a Gen X family, you should still have decades between you and your ideal retirement. So, perhaps counterintuitively, you get to routinely set aside less if you start saving more right away.

The extra time you’ve got gives you the luxury of benefiting from compounding returns. That means you can snowball more returns on the returns you’re already receiving—and so on, and so forth. Bottom line, the more you manage to save, and the sooner you get started, the more likely your investment portfolio will have what it takes to come through for you in retirement. Continue Reading…

What to do about crazy Stock valuations

Posted By |

By Michael J. Wiener

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

The last time I had to put a lot of effort into thinking about my finances was back when I retired in mid-2017.  I had ideas of how to manage my money after retirement, but it wasn’t until a couple of years had gone by that I felt confident that my long-term plans would work for me.  I had my portfolio on autopilot, and my investing spreadsheet would email me if I needed to take some action.

I was fortunate that I happened to retire into a huge bull market.  I got the upside of sequence-of-returns risk.  The downside risk is that stocks will plummet during your early retirement years, and your regular spending will dig deep into your portfolio.  Happily for me, I got the opposite result.  My family’s spending barely made a dent in the relentless rise of the stock market.

However, stock prices have become crazy, particularly in the U.S.  One measure of stock priciness is Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings (CAPE) ratio.  In the U.S., the CAPE ratio is now just under 40.  The only other time it was this high in the last 150 years was during the dot-com boom in the late 1990s and early 2000s.  Just before the 1929 Black Tuesday stock market crash, the CAPE was only about 30.

Outside the U.S., prices aren’t as high, but they are still elevated.  My stock portfolio’s blended CAPE is a little under 32 as I write this article.  Even if stock prices were cut in half, this would just bring the CAPE close to the average level over the past century.  To say that these thoughts made me think hard about whether I should change how I manage my portfolio is an understatement.

A change in thinking about high stock prices

For a long time, my thinking was to ignore inflated stock prices and just rebalance my portfolio as necessary to maintain my chosen asset allocation percentages.  I have a planned “glidepath” for my stock/bond mix that has me about 20% in bonds at my current age and increasing as I get older.  My bond allocation consists of cash and short-term bonds, and the rest is spread among the world’s stock indexes.  I saw no reason to change my plan as my portfolio grew.

Then a question changed my thinking.  If the CAPE rises to 50, or 75, or even 100, would I still want such a high stock allocation?  It’s not that I expect the U.S. or much of the rest of the world’s stocks to become as overvalued as Japanese stocks in 1990, but I should be prepared for how I’d respond if they do.

At a CAPE of 50, I wouldn’t want more than about half my money in stocks, and at 100, I wouldn’t want much in stocks at all.  So, even though I’m comfortable with 80% stocks at a blended CAPE of 32, something would have to change if the CAPE were to rise from 32 towards 50.

A first attempt

Once I realized I definitely would reduce my stock allocation in the face of ridiculously inflated markets, I had to work out the details.  I started with some rules.  First, I don’t want any sudden selloffs.  For example, I don’t want to hold a large stock allocation all the way up to a blended CAPE of 39.9 and suddenly sell them all if the CAPE hits 40.  A second rule was that I don’t want any CAPE-based adjustment to apply unless the CAPE is above some threshold level.

As the CAPE kept climbing, I felt some urgency to choose a plan.  My first attempt was to change nothing if the CAPE is under 30, and when it’s above 30, I multiplied my bond allocation by the CAPE value and divided by 30.  I implemented this idea in my portfolio as an interim plan before I analyzed it fully.

Another adjustment I made a little earlier was to reduce my expectation for future stock returns.  When the current CAPE is above 20, I now assume the CAPE will drop to 20 by the end of my life.  This doesn’t directly affect my portfolio’s asset allocation, but it reduces the percentage of my portfolio I can spend each year during retirement.  When stocks rise and the CAPE rises, my portfolio grows, and this increases how much I can spend.  But then this new rule reduces my assumed future stock returns, and reduces my safe spending percentage somewhat.  Increasing stock prices still allow me to spend more, but this rule slows down the increase in my spending.

A new simpler rule for adjusting my stock allocation based on high CAPE values

I’m still happy with the way I’ve adjusted my expectation for future stock returns when the CAPE is high, but I’ve changed the way I adjust my bond allocation to the CAPE.  I now have a simpler rule I named Variable Asset Allocation (VAA) that better matches my thinking about what I’d want if the CAPE got to 50 or 100.

VAA: If the CAPE is above 25, I add CAPE minus 25 (taken as a percentage) to my age-based bond allocation.

For example, without VAA my current bond allocation based on my age is about 20%.  The current blended CAPE of my portfolio is about 32, so I add 32–25=7% to my bond allocation.  So, I’m currently 27% in bonds and 73% in stocks.

This might not seem like much of a bond allocation adjustment in percentage terms, but it’s a bigger adjustment in dollar terms.  Consider the following example.  Suppose a $500,000 portfolio with a 20% bond allocation sees a jump in the CAPE from 25 to 32.  This is a 28% increase in stock prices.  So, we started with $100,000 in bonds and $400,000 in stocks, and the stocks jumped in value to $512,000 for a total portfolio size of $612,000.  When we adjust the bond allocation to 27% in accordance with VAA, we have $165,000 in bonds and $447,000 in stocks.  Of the $112,000 jump in stock value, we shifted $65,000 over to bonds, and left only $47,000 of it in stocks.  Although the bond allocation went from 20% to 27%, a 35% increase, the dollar amount in bonds rose 65%.  This is a substantial shift, and it leaves a healthy bond buffer if stock prices subsequently crash. Continue Reading…

Canadian Energy: An Industry in Transition

Posted By |

 

Franklin Templeton/iStock

By Les Stelmach, Izabel Flis, Mike Richmond, Naveed Sunderji

Franklin Bissett Investment Management

(Sponsor Content)

This is an interesting time for the energy industry. Occasional reflexive selling based on emerging demand or supply concerns has been short-lived. Late last fall (based on January distribution), consuming nations like the United States tried to mitigate higher crude oil prices by releasing volumes from their strategic petroleum reserves to little avail.

More recently, higher rates of COVID infection in some European countries and the emergence of the Omicron variant sparked some selloff in oil prices, but this is likely to be short-lived as the trajectory for global demand approaches pre-COVID levels.

In addition, the ongoing focus on climate change concerns — most recently articulated at the COP26 conference in Glasgow, — has increased pressure on producing nations and companies to limit production. The current lack of a coordinated suite of energy alternatives that can deliver reliably at the necessary scale does little to deter demand. Arguably, this phase of the transition is contributing to higher prices for crude oil and natural gas. Prices for both commodities have supported greater returns and profitability for oil and gas companies, rewarding investors willing to ignore the volatility.

The path to net zero: journey of 1000 steps

While the last 20 years have seen significant improvements in cost-effectivenes and efficiency for renewable technologies, the sobering reality is that they are not yet able to carry the full load of global economic activity. Renewables still generate comparatively less energy than hydrocarbons, are less stable and vulnerable to demand shocks. An aggressive transition to renewables can backfire, as Californians discovered during last summer’s severe heatwave when their heavily renewable-reliant energy supply was unable keep up with the increased demand. The result was rolling blackouts.

The infrastructure created to support the extraction, production and transportation of hydrocarbons will not be transformed overnight, but in some cases it will become part of the transition to cleaner energy. Pipelines, for example, are essential conduits for hydrocarbons. Political controversy aside, from an environmental perspective they are currently the safest, most efficient, most cost-effective and cleanest mode of transport.

Some natural gas exports are already serving decarbonization efforts in developing nations. In the future, some pipelines may be converted to carry low-carbon recycled natural gas (RNG), hydrogen or carbon dioxide to be sequestered as these alternatives become more widely adopted. Longevity and cash flows for these assets are considered stable over the near future.

Energy and ESG: surprisingly compatible

For oil and gas companies, the emphasis on “E” in ESG (environmental) is really a “C” (climate change). The scrutiny around gas emissions does not isolate one measure to the exclusion of others. Water and waste management, turnover rate, injury rates: these and many other factors are part of a comprehensive ESG analysis. Continue Reading…

6 investment tips for Millennials

Posted By |
Source: Unsplash (Edited on Canva)

By Hari Subramanian

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

From the ‘safety-first’ attitude of baby boomers to the ‘putting themselves out there’ nature of Gen Z, generational cohorts offer great insights into the evolution of the human psyche based on different experiences.  

Millennials are not exactly what you call ‘risk takers’ but are more open towards new opportunities, compared to previous generations. This characteristic of millennials can be seen in the way they invest their money: they are willing to move away from fixed deposits and RRSPs that the boomers swore by and are looking to invest in stocks, cryptocurrency, and other financial avenues. 

Why should Millennials invest?

While more and more millennials are dabbling into investing in different portfolios, almost 50% of the cohort is still waiting to invest until they earn more money. This data contradicts the popular belief that the best time to invest is yesterday, and those who wait are losing precious time to grow their money. 

If you are one of those who procrastinate about investing money for later or think you need a 6-digit income to substantially boost your financial growth, you couldn’t be more wrong. Start your investment journey as early as you can as your returns compound  with time, and you’ll learn the tricks of the trade to become a more component investor in the future. And, you can start investing with just a handful of dollars.   

Investment Tips for 2022

If you are a millennial just beginning to build your investment portfolio or a seasoned millennial investor, these 6 financial tips will help you stand in good stead for 2022:    

Robo Advisors to the rescue

Trading in stocks requires constant scrutiny of rising and falling stock prices and earnings, and a good understanding of how the stock market functions. In the recent phenomenon of a surge in GameStop shares created by a group of Reddit investors, many retail investors and short-selling hedge funds that were betting for the company to fail lost billions of dollars. 

While it is only human to jump on the bandwagon of a stock market frenzy in an attempt to earn substantial profits, it entails high risks and can cause a lot of damage to your finances.   

If you are new to the stock investment game or don’t have enough time to monitor the peaks and troughs of the stock market, then you should explore robo advisors to help you achieve your financial goals with minimal risks. 

For the uninitiated, robo advisors are digital portals that control and optimize your investment portfolios through the use of algorithms and data-driven strategies. Robo advisors are very easy to use, as they automate your investments based on your investment budget and long-term financial goals. 

They also are pretty inexpensive with an affordable minimal balance to open investment accounts for investors from all walks of life. With minimal human supervision, a robo advisor can adjust your investments automatically based on market fluctuations while focussing on your monetary goals. Thus, if you wish for steady growth of your investments without any undue risk, you can explore the web to find the right robo advisor for you.  

ESG Investments can make you a better investor

Source: Pixabay

As more and more millennials are standing up for environmental, social, and socio-political causes, it is time for their investments to reflect their thought process. ESG investments are defined as investments based on non-financial factors such as environmental, social, and governance impact of a company on society.

In ESG investments, millennials pour in money on the company stocks they believe will make a difference to the world they live in. Through ESGs, millennials extend their support to companies whose beliefs align with theirs and hope that it creates a sustainable future for their children. 

ESG investments also provide a great learning curve for investors. Since personal beliefs, values, and socio-environmental impact are involved, you as an investor tend to go the extra mile to learn everything about the company including its financial health and revenue model instead of just blindly buying stocks that are on the rise.

ESGs can help you understand how and why a company’s stock performs in a certain way and can teach you a lesson in becoming better investors.      

Ditch individual Stock Picking

Before we delve into why stock picking is not a good investment option, it is imperative to understand what stock picking is. Based on market research and analysis, stock picking is a strategy to find the stocks that are most likely to deliver favourable investment returns.  Continue Reading…

Getting your finances ready for the new year

Posted By |

By Stuart Gray,

Director, Financial Planning Centre of Expertise, RBC

(Sponsor Content)

If you’re like many Canadians, with 2022 around the corner, you’re likely thinking about what you would like to achieve in this new year.

You can begin by having a good look at your current financial situation and the steps you can take to stay on top of your money.

As we consider what this year will bring, here are five areas of personal finances you can focus on to get 2022 onto solid financial footing:

• Make sure your financial plan still works for you

As the economy continues to recover and we look toward whatever this year holds, having a financial plan can help you take stock of where you are and what you need to do to continue to work toward your financial goals.

A financial plan can help strengthen your confidence when it comes to managing your money, both now and in the future. Taking the time to build a plan that works for you and your unique financial situation is a good start. Use your plan to identify your goals and objectives, evaluate your finances and put steps in place to achieve your financial goals. It’s also important to revisit your plan regularly, especially as your finances or priorities change.

• Stay on top of your cash flow

As inflation continues to impact Canadians’ purchasing power, cash flow will become an even more important part of managing personal finances in 2022. Here’s where having a budget, to complement your financial plan, is a huge help. A budget will give you a good picture of the money you have coming in and going out.

If you already have a budget, it’s a good time to review and update your expenses to account for rising costs: from gas and groceries to utilities and activities. This will help you see what you may have left over to put into savings.

Managing any debts and how you plan to pay them off is also an important part of managing cash flow. A piece of advice here: Don’t worry about paying all your debts at once. Instead, focus on taking care of higher interest rate debts first. This will have a good impact on your overall financial health, to help you worry less and save more.

New digital tools, like NOMI Budgets and NOMI Forecast can also help you stay on top of your money and avoid unnecessary expenses. Available to RBC clients through the RBC Mobile app, NOMI Budgets simplifies the budgeting process by taking a close look at your spending and recommending a personalized monthly budget based on your habits. NOMI Forecast learns from your past transactions and uses predictive technology to provide a rolling forecast of your expenses for the next seven days.

• Be prepared for the unexpected

One important lesson the pandemic has taught us is that the unexpected can happen at any time. It also has reinforced the importance of having an emergency fund that you can rely on to help cover the costs of unexpected expenses like loss of income or repairs to vehicles or flooded basements.

Setting up an automatic savings plan can make it easier to save regularly. Using a digital savings account like NOMI Find & Save can also help, as it finds extra money in your cash flow it thinks you won’t miss and automatically sets it aside. If a payment or transfer is due to come out of your linked chequing account, the money is automatically transferred back to ensure you have what you need to cover those transactions.

• Look past the headlines when investing

It can be tempting to do ‘emotional investing’ – reacting to negative headlines and market volatility by altering a well-designed investment plan. While selling off your portfolio may make you feel better, this decision could mean lost opportunities and not achieving your long-term investment goals. Continue Reading…