Hub Blogs

Hub Blogs contains fresh contributions written by Financial Independence Hub staff or contributors that have not appeared elsewhere first, or have been modified or customized for the Hub by the original blogger. In contrast, Top Blogs shows links to the best external financial blogs around the world.

How to Monetize your Creative Hobby as a Side Hustle

Image Source: Pexels

By Beau Peters

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Side hustles are becoming more popular than ever. As technology advances, e-commerce stores and selling platforms like Etsy have made it possible for people to monetize their creative hobbies and turn them into viable businesses.

Even if you don’t want to run a full-fledged business, the hobby you love could end up becoming a successful side hustle if you’re willing to put in a bit of time and effort. Whether you want a little extra cash each month or you’re trying to build a brand name for yourself, selling your creative products online can help you find financial independence: and have fun doing it!

So, whether you’re into photography, pottery, crocheting, or drawing/painting, chances are there’s an audience out there that would love to purchase your creations.

Let’s take a closer look at how you can monetize your creative hobbies and make a profit doing what you love.

Think of yourself as a Business

The best thing you can do as you work to monetize your hobbies is to think of what you’re doing as a business. Even if you’re only working on it part-time for a little extra income, you’ll end up being more successful with a business mindset. That includes understanding things like:

  • Finances;
  • Marketing;
  • Sales
  • Customer service

You’ll also want to make sure you understand how creative operations work. Even if you’re doing everything on your own, creative operations will make it easier for you to manage your workflow and optimize every step of what you’re doing. When you’re putting time into a side hustle, every second counts. Creative operations make it easier to produce high-quality work as efficiently and effectively as possible.

Consider whether you can commit to the business side of your side hustle. You don’t need to devote all of your time to it, but if you want to make money and build up a following, having certain business practices in place is important. It’s also crucial when it comes to keeping things organized and keeping your finances in order. You don’t have to have a marketing degree to market your side hustle. However, if you’re not sure about running your side hustle like a business, consider hiring someone on a part-time basis to keep things moving forward and to ensure you’re staying organized.

Find Financial Freedom

It’s estimated that 40% of Americans currently have a side hustle. The uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic caused many people to start freelancing or forced them to look for ways of bringing in extra income. Even in a post-pandemic society, the popularity of side hustles continues to grow, especially for those who love what they’re doing. Continue Reading…

Recession “most probable” scenario for US and Europe in 2023: Infrastructure plays attractive, says ClearBridge

 

Image: Pexels/Engin Akyurt

’Tis the Season for economic forecasts. Further to the Vanguard 2023 outlook highlighted on the Hub yesterday comes various forecasts from Franklin Templeton Investments and its sub-advisors.

The selections below suggest Recession is the most likely scenario for 2023 — something Vanguard also forecast — and ClearBridge Investments sees Infrastructure assets as more promising than global equities during this period. Clearbridge runs the Franklin Clearbridge Sustainable Global Infrastructure Income Active ETFSee also this blog on Infrastructure investing from BMO ETFs, which ran on the Hub late in August.

As with Monday’s blog, we’ve highlighted relevant paragraphs directly from the horse’s mouth, including the subheadings from the various money managers. Unless otherwise indicated, images are from our image banks.

ClearBridge Investments: U.S. economic outlook by Investment Strategist Jeff Schulze

Recession is the path of least resistance

As we look ahead to 2023, recession has gone from a distantly possible scenario to the most probable one, and the potential pivot by the Fed that many equity investors are hoping for is unlikely to occur.

Our views are grounded in the reading of the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard of 12 economic indicators, which has been flashing red for the past four months, indicating a recession. Eight of the 12 underlying indicators are signaling recession, including traditional recession precursors, like the 10- year/3-month Treasury yield curve, which inverted this fall. This portion of the yield curve has correctly anticipated the last eight recessions dating back to 1970, providing an average of 11 months of warning.

Image: Pexels/Mart Production

A recession is not a done deal, however. The most likely positive path involves what we have dubbed the “immaculate slackening” where the labor market tightens but not too many jobs are lost. Job openings are still more than 3 million above their pre-pandemic level (but down 1.5 million from the peak), while the total number of persons employed is only around 1 million greater than before COVID-19. This suggests room exists to loosen labor demand but not destroy as many jobs, which would help restore balance and ease wage gains. Importantly, this could help ease inflation, particularly in service industries where wages are a larger component of prices.

The most important factor to achieve a soft landing is a substantial reduction in inflation, which would allow the Fed to back off its aggressive actions. With inflation unlikely to return to 2% in 2023, and the labor market proving resilient, the Fed is likely to continue to tighten monetary policy to slow the economy and curb price increases, which will ultimately result in a recession. Monitoring the health of the labor market will be important in the coming year, given its role as a key inflation barometer for the Fed. We will also be looking for signs of weakening consumption outside of the most interest rate sensitive areas as evidence that a slowdown is taking deeper root.

ClearBridge Investments: Global infrastructure outlook by Portfolio Managers Charles Hamieh, Shane Hurst and Nick Langley

Infrastructure earnings more secure than global equities; U.S. expected to focus on renewables

From no growth in 2020 to rapid growth in 2021 to slow growth in 2022, we look at 2023 with a base case of recessions in the U.S., Europe and the U.K.

The impact on infrastructure, though, should be muted, particularly for our regulated assets, where the companies generate their cash flows, earnings and dividends from their underlying asset bases, as we expect those asset bases to increase over the next several years. As a result, infrastructure earnings look better protected compared to global equities.

Infrastructure assets more secure than global equities. Image from Franklin ClearBridge

Most infrastructure companies have a link to inflation in their revenue or returns. Regulated assets, such as utilities, have their regulated allowed returns adjusted for changes in bond yields over time. As real yields rise, utilities look poised to perform well, and we have currently tilted our infrastructure portfolios to reflect this.

As a result, the underlying valuations of infrastructure assets are relatively unaffected by changes in inflation and bond yields. However, we have seen equity market volatility associated with higher bond yields impact the prices of listed infrastructure securities, making them more compelling when compared with unlisted infrastructure valuations in the private markets.

On top of its relative appeal versus equities, infrastructure should benefit from several macro drivers in 2023 — and beyond. First, energy security is driving policy right now, and a significant amount of infrastructure will need to be built to attain energy security. High gas prices and supply constraints brought on by the Russia/Ukraine war have highlighted the importance of energy security and energy investment. This is supportive of energy infrastructure, particularly in Europe, where additional capacity is needed to supplant Russian oil and gas supply, and in the U.S., where new basins are starting up, in part to meet fresh demand from Europe. Continue Reading…

Vanguard says Balanced portfolios still offer best chance of success as Inflation gets beaten back

While the traditional 60/40 balanced portfolio has suffered its worst year in decades, and Recession is likely in 2023, the Vanguard Group is optimistic that balanced portfolios will thrive beyond 2023 and over the rest of the decade.

A balanced portfolio still offers the best chance of success,” is one of the top conclusions that will be unveiled Monday:  Vanguard Canada is hosting its Economic and Market Outlook for 2023, with a global virtual press conference scheduled at 11 AM [Dec. 12].  It includes Vanguard economists such as Global Chief Economist Joe Davis.

Below, received last week under embargo, are highlights of a report titled Vanguard Economic and Market Outlook for 2023: Beating back inflation. It runs about 60 pages, including numerous charts.

The text below consists mostly of excerpts from the Vanguard report, with the use of an ellipsis to indicate excisions, so there are no passages in quotation marks. Subheads are also taken from the original document. Apart from a handful of charts reproduced below, references to numerous other charts or graphs have been removed in the excerpts selected below.

Base case for 2023 is Disinflation

Our base case for 2023 is one of disinflation, but at a cost of a global recession. Inflation has likely already peaked in most markets, but reducing price pressures tied to labor markets and wage growth will take longer. As such, central banks may reasonably achieve their 2% inflation targets only in 2024 or 2025.

Consistent with our investment outlook for 2022, which focused on the need for higher short-term interest rates, central banks will continue their aggressive tightening cycle into early 2023 before pausing as inflation falls. As such, our base case has government bond yields generally peaking in 2023. Although rising interest rates have created near-term pain for investors, higher starting rates have raised our return expectations for U.S. and international bonds. We now expect U.S. and international bonds to return 4%–5% over the next decade.

Equity markets have yet to drop materially below their fair-value range, which they have historically done during recessions. Longer term, however, our global equity outlook is improving because of lower valuations and higher interest rates. Our return expectations are 2.25 percentage points higher than last year. From a U.S. dollar investor’s perspective, our Vanguard Capital Markets Model projects higher 10-year annualized returns for non-U.S. developed markets (7.2%–9.2%) and emerging markets (7%–9%) than for U.S. markets (4.7%–6.7%).

Global inflation: Persistently surprising

Our base case is a global recession in 2023 brought about by the efforts to return inflation to target … growth is likely to end 2023 flat or slightly negative in most major economies outside of China. Unemployment is likely to rise over the year but nowhere near as high as during the 2008 and 2020 downturns. Through job losses and slowing consumer demand, a downtrend in inflation is likely to persist through 2023. We don’t believe that central banks will achieve their targets of 2% inflation in 2023, but they will maintain those targets and look to achieve them through 2024 and into 2025 — or reassess them when the time is right. That time isn’t now.

Global fixed income: Brighter days ahead

The market, which was initially slow to price higher interest rates to fight elevated and persistent inflation, now believes that most central banks will have to go well past their neutral policy rates — the rate at which policy would be considered neither accommodative nor restrictive — to quell inflation.

Rising interest rates and higher interest rate expectations have lowered bond returns in 2022, creating near-term pain for investors. However the bright side of higher rates is higher interest payments. These have led our return expectations for U.S. and international bonds to increase by more than twofold. We now expect U.S. bonds to return 4.1%–5.1% per year over the next decade, compared with the 1.4%–2.4% annual returns we forecast a year ago. For international bonds, we expect returns of 4%–5% per year over the next decade, compared with our year-ago forecast of 1.3%–2.3% per year.

Global equities: Resetting expectations

The silver lining is that this year’s bear market has improved our outlook for global equities, though our Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM) projections suggest there are greater opportunities outside the United States.

Stretched valuations in the U.S. equity market in 2021 were unsustainable, and our fair-value framework suggests they still don’t reflect current economic realities.

Although U.S. equities have continued to outperform their international peers, the primary driver of that outperformance has shifted from earnings to currency over the last year. The 30% decline in emerging markets over the past 12 months has made valuations in those regions more attractive. We now expect similar returns to those of non-U.S. developed markets and view emerging markets as an important diversifier in equity portfolios.

Within the U.S. market, value stocks are fairly valued relative to growth, and small-capitalization stocks are attractive despite our expectations for weaker near-term growth. Our outlook for the global equity risk premium is still positive at 1 to 3 percentage points, but lower than last year because of a faster increase in expected bond returns

Continue Reading…

Wrapping our Heads around Income

Image: Franklin Templeton/iStock

By Franklin Templeton

(Sponsor Content)

For those who depend on investments to provide a portion of their yearly income, 2022 has been a tough slog, to say the least; but take heart: it’s almost over.

Of course, no one can say with certainty that 2023 will be better. Persistently high inflation, ongoing central bank monetary tightening and the increasing likelihood of a recession have made for volatile markets, and this uncertainty could continue well into next year.

Under the circumstances, it’s not surprising that weary investors have poured money into GICs (guaranteed investment certificates) and other cash equivalents. Even with today’s higher interest rates, however, returns remain well below the inflation rate, and unless held in registered accounts, they are fully taxable. Liquidity can also be problematic as most GICs require a locked-in period, with penalties for redeeming before maturity. If you need flexibility, you’ll pay for it with lower returns.

Reliable income requires diversification

Without doubt, GICs have their place: but the proverbial advice about placing all your eggs in one basket still applies. Diversification is as important for income portfolios as it is for equities, and the sources of income should be as uncorrelated to each other as possible. One way to easily bump up the level of income diversification is through a managed program (sometimes referred to as a wrap account) which bundles together different investment vehicles, strategies, styles and portfolio managers in one or more “umbrella” portfolios directed by a governing team of portfolio managers.

20 years of income generation

One of the earliest programs managed in Canada was Franklin Templeton’s Quotential program; in fact, this year marks the program’s 20th anniversary. Of its five globally diversified, actively managed portfolios, the aptly named Quotential Diversified Income Portfolio (QDIP) is designed to generate high, consistent income from multiple uncorrelated sources. Canadian and international fixed income assets form the core of the portfolio, but for added flexibility and performance enhancement, about one-quarter of the portfolio is invested in blue-chip Canadian and international equities selected for their income-generating  dividend yields and long-term growth potential.

T” is for Tax Efficient

Reliability solves much of the income puzzle, but an important missing piece is the tax burden. Taxes can eat away at the income generated from investments, especially if you are still earning a salary or receiving significant income from other sources. All Quotential portfolios are available in Series T, which offers a predictable stream of cash flow through monthly return of capital (ROC) distributions. From a tax perspective, ROC is treated more favourably than interest or dividend income. The tax efficiency also extends to the tax deferral of capital gains that can help you better plan for when you pay tax. For snowbirds and others who spend extended periods south of the border, distributions from Series T are available in U.S. dollars for a number of funds, including Quotential Diversified Income.

It’s important to stress that with Series T, capital gains taxes are deferred, not eliminated. Continue Reading…

The Lure of Dividends

A super juicy yield can be a warning sign

By Anita Bruinsma, CFA, 

Clarity Personal Finance

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Earning income from dividends is an attractive proposition that’s available to anyone with money to invest in the stock market. In a prior blog post, I highlighted two ways to get dividends from your investments: by investing in high dividend-paying ETFs and by investing in individual stocks. When choosing an ETF, I suggested three qualities to look for, one of which was choosing a fund with a high yield, with the note that “higher is better.”

“Higher is better” is a pretty safe bet with ETFs but when it comes to dividend-paying stocks, you need to be a little careful. Although higher is generally better, a very high dividend yield can be a warning sign.

Understanding dividends

As a reminder, a dividend is a payment made by a company to its shareholders and a dividend yield is the dividend per share divided by the stock price. (For a dividend primer, read my blog posts here and here.) The primary reason why a company pays a dividend is because it has extra cash. After paying expenses to run the business and invest for future growth, some companies still have money sitting around. They could put that money in the bank, or they could distribute it to shareholders. The thinking is that a shareholder might have better things to do with the cash than having the money sitting in the corporation’s bank account, causing shareholders to say, “Hey, I’m a part owner in this company – send me that cash that’s sitting around doing nothing for you.”

Another reason companies might pay dividends is to entice shareholders to buy their stock. If demand for a company’s stock is high, the price (generally) goes up. Companies like this a lot. The big drivers of demand for stocks are the large buyers: the companies that run mutual funds, pension funds and exchange-traded funds. (They are called institutional investors.) Dividend-focussed funds often have a requirement to invest only in companies that pay a dividend. Sometimes a fund’s portfolio manager likes a company but can’t own it in the mutual fund because it doesn’t pay a dividend. If the company wants these funds to buy its stock, it might choose to pay a dividend, even if it’s a small one. Is this the right motive for initiating a dividend? Not really, since the purpose of dividends is to distribute excess cash to shareholders – and unless there really is enough cash available, a dividend is simply window dressing.

When higher is not better

What kind of company makes the best dividend-payer? One that has stable profits and steady cash flow. Why? Because as an investor, you might come to rely on the dividends you are being paid – the last thing you want is for the company to stop paying the dividend. Not only does this mean you will have less income, but it can also be a signal that the business isn’t generating cash the way it used to. A company that reduces or eliminates its dividend is often punished by the market, sending the stock down. Companies most likely to face this situation are those that have volatile earnings – if profits are down, they may not have enough cash in the bank and cutting the dividend is inevitable. In fact, once a company sees that business is weakening, eliminating the dividends is one of the first and easiest ways to save money. Pay employees? Yes. Pay the bank loan? Absolutely. Pay the dividend? Nope.

This explains why a high dividend yield can be a warning sign. If a company’s stock price is falling, its dividend yield is going to move higher and higher so long as it doesn’t reduce the dividend. (Recall that the yield is calculated as dividend/stock price.) Does a 14% dividend yield sound great? Heck. yeah! That’s way better than a 4% GIC. But the expression “If it’s too good to be true, it probably is” applies here. A declining stock price probably means the business isn’t doing well – and that means the dividend is seriously at risk of being cut. If you’re interested in getting in the weeds a little (and now I’m regressing to my stock analyst days), have a look at this prime example. Just Energy had a 14% dividend yield in 2012 – it was way too high. Dividend cuts soon followed, and the company now pays no dividend. (The stock has been decimated.)

When higher is better

The recent stock market decline has resulted in some really nice dividend yields: BCE at 6.2%, CIBC at 5.6%, and Manulife Financial at 6%. But this is different: the whole market is going down. In this case, a higher yield isn’t a sign that the company is necessarily failing or that the dividend is at risk. This presents a nice opportunity to buy some of these stocks. Continue Reading…