Decumulate & Downsize

Most of your investing life you and your adviser (if you have one) are focused on wealth accumulation. But, we tend to forget, eventually the whole idea of this long process of delayed gratification is to actually spend this money! That’s decumulation as opposed to wealth accumulation. This stage may also involve downsizing from larger homes to smaller ones or condos, moving to the country or otherwise simplifying your life and jettisoning possessions that may tie you down.

Timeless Financial Tips #5: Trust the Evidence

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Lowrie Financial: Canva Custom Creation

 

Evidence-Based Investing – Your Best Chance to Hit Your Long-Term Investment Goals

By Steve Lowrie, CFA

Special to Financial Independence Hub

If I could, I would grant amazing investment returns to every investor across every market. Unfortunately, that’s just not how it works. In real life, we must aim toward our financial ideals, knowing we won’t hit the bullseye every time.

That’s why I recommend evidence-based investing: or investing according to our best understanding of how markets have actually delivered available returns over time, versus how we wish they would. Our “best understanding” may still be imperfect, but it sure beats ignoring reality entirely.

Luck-Based Investing and Random Returns

Many investors try to pick and choose when and how to invest based on what they or others are predicting will happen next. All evidence suggests their success or failure will be driven far more by luck than skill. Worse, going down this path, there is a very high probability they’ll end up with worse results versus a properly structured “buy and hold” approach.

Some deliberately embrace this approach, hoping to “beat” the market. Others come to it accidentally, by reacting to financial behavioural biases such as panic-selling or spree-buying. Either way, these sorts of investment portfolios typically devolve into a disheartening assortment of holdings over time, offering little sense of where you stand in relation to your own goals or overall market performance. The odds stack steeply against your achieving any carefully planned outcome: provided you had one to begin with.

Evidence-Based Investing and Portfolio Planning

In contrast, evidence-based investors adhere to decades and volumes of time-tested, peer-reviewed analysis by academics and practitioners alike. In aggregate, we seek to answer an essential investment challenge:

How can an investor increase the probability they’ll capture the highest expected market returns, given the levels of investment risk they’re willing to accept?

The answers point to a two-step strategy:

1. Build It. Prepare your personal portfolio:

  • Allocate your investments between broad asset classes.
  • Widely diversify your bonds and equities to reduce the unnecessary risks inherent to individual bond or stock picks.
  • Tilt your overall portfolio toward factors with higher expected returns, according to your personal financial goals and risk tolerances.

2. Keep It. Sit tight with your carefully constructed portfolio for the long term, to ensure you capture the expected long-term growth from your various market allocations. So, stay invested through thick and thin and set aside enough cash reserves to cover upcoming spending needs.

At the risk of repeating ourselves (which is, after all, the theme of this “Play It Again, Steve” financial tips blog series), evidence-based investing translates into building and maintaining a portfolio that looks something like this:

three key portfolio construction decisions

Keeping It: The Hardest Thing

It’s one thing to build an ideal portfolio. It’s another to keep it in balance as intended. In fact, thanks to our behavioural biases, I would argue it’s the hardest part.

For example, what will you do after the stock market has been surging, and your 60%/40% stock/bond allocations end up being closer to 70%/ 30%.? You’ll probably want to let your overweight allocation to high-flying stocks ride, hoping to score even more. That’s because recency and other behavioural biases trick us into believing the party will never end. However, the more prudent, evidence-based move is to sell some of your equity allocations (selling high) and use the proceeds to buy more humdrum fixed income (buying low), until you’re back to your original 60%/40% mix. Continue Reading…

Why the 4% rule is actually (still) a decent rule of thumb

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By Mark Seed, myownadvisor

Special to Financial Independence Hub

I’m not a huge listener to podcasts but I do enjoy them from time to time …

A few years back, I listened to a BiggerPockets Podcast with financial independence enthusiast, U.S. financial planner, commentator and educator Michael Kitces as a guest.

This podcast delved into the 4% safe withdrawal rate that so many, many, many….DIY investors in the early retirement community rely on and why Michael Kitces ultimately believes the 4% rule actually remains a very good rule of thumb to plan by – to a point. 

If you don’t have an hour and 22 minutes to listen to this episode (not many people do…) then no worries, I’ve captured the essence of the interview below.

In this updated post (with some new links), I share my own thinking on this subject and why I won’t use the 4% rule myself for any detailed planning work for us.

Could the 4% rule remain a decent rule of thumb?

In general terms, the “4% rule” says that you can withdraw “safely” 4% of your savings each year (and increase it every year by the rate of inflation) from the time you retire and have a very high probability you’ll never run out of money.

Some things to keep in mind when you read this:

  1. This ‘rule’ originated from a paper written in the mid-1990s by a financial planner in the U.S. who looked at rolling 30-year periods of a 50% equity/50% fixed income asset allocation. His name was Bill Bengen.

4% rule

2. This rule was developed almost 30 years ago. A lot has changed since then including real returns from bonds. There are also products on the market now that allow investors to diversify far beyond the mix of large-cap U.S. stocks and treasuries the Bengen study was based on.

3. The study was designed to answer the question: “How much can I safely withdraw from my retirement savings each year and have my nest egg last for the duration of my retirement?” Little else.

4. The study assumed (at the time) most retirees would retire around age 60. Therefore, a “good retirement” would be ~30 years thereafter; what is the safe withdrawal rate to make it through retirement until death.

5. The rule takes none of the following into account:

  • Will you (or your spouse) have a defined benefit pension plan?
  • Do you expect to receive an inheritance?
  • Will you downsize your home?
  • Do you have a shortened life expectancy or health issues that should be considered?
  • Will you continue to earn some form of income in your senior years?
  • And the list of what ifs goes on and on and on …

My 4% rule example

My wife and I aspire to have a paid off condo AND own > $1M personal portfolio to start semi-retirement with. We hope those days are near. We’ve always considered the 4% rule a decent starting point for our portfolio drawdown ideas but that’s where it ends for us.

Using that desired investment value, if we can grow our portfolio to over $1M, the 4% rule tells us we could expect to withdraw about 4% of that million-dollar nest egg ($40,000 per year indexed to inflation) and have virtually no concerns we would run out of money for the next 30 years (early 80s).

But just living off dividends or distributions (which is about 4% of our portfolio yield) doesn’t make much sense in perpetuity. I’ll come back to that point in a bit.

To the podcast and some takeaways!

On the subject of a 4% withdrawal rate – is that conservative?

Michael: Yes. If your time horizon is 30-years, it probably is. Because, when Bengen looked at his different rolling periods … he found the worst case scenario was a withdrawal rate of about 4.15%. “It was the one rate that worked in the worst historical market sequence…”.

Does recent data say anything different since the 1994 study?

Michael: Not really. Michael and his team replicated the Bengen study and generally arrived at the same number. And that’s not the only good news … 50% of the time using the 4% rule you will as Michael puts it “double your wealth.”

So, 50% of the time (market returns willing) you will finish with almost X3 wealth on top of a lifetime of spending using the 4% rule.

“…the reality remains that by withdrawing at “only” a 4% initial withdrawal rate, the overwhelming majority of the time retirees just finish with a massive excess amount of assets left over!”

4% rule Kitces

Check out the outstanding Michael Kitces study on the 4% withdrawal rule – that shows the extraordinary upside potential in sequence of return risk.

From that post:

“…taking even “just” a 5% initial withdrawal rate (and adjusting spending for inflation in each subsequent year) actually runs out of money in nearly 25% of historical scenarios… even though a higher 5.4% withdrawal rate “worked” when projecting the lowest 30-year average returns in history!”

What if you retire at the worst possible time? Example, on the eve of the 2008-2009 financial crisis?

Michael: Doesn’t matter. 4% worked. Thanks to a massive bull run for the 10 years that followed, as bad as the 2008-2009 financial crisis was, you were still trending far ahead. Continue Reading…

Less than Half of Canadians have a Will and many don’t even know where to start: NIA

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By Mark Venning, ChangeRangers.com

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Following Canada’s National Institute on Ageing (NIA) since their beginning in 2016, it’s been a year since I last commented on the value of the NIA as a knowledge resource for Canadians on topics related to ageing and longevity.

And I would say, their regular reports, generated often in collaboration with other groups, are also a resource for anyone engaged in comparative research outside this country.

Now here’s today’s feature on one report from the NIA files from 2023 so far

Where There’s a Will, There’s a Way: Exploring Canadian Perspectives on Estate Planning.

When I first received my NIA email notification of this report on May 17th, I was not surprised in the least by the lead headline: “Less than Half of Canadians Have a Will – and Many Don’t Even Know Where To Start.” For over twenty plus years, back when I was working in partnership with financial planners to deliver seminars on later life transitions, this was always a commonly known fact, and most people who didn’t have a Will knew that they should have had one.

The April 2022 Ipsos survey for this NIA report was conducted in collaboration with RBC Royal Trust. As the report details, it all starts with overall Estate Planning, and this includes setting up a Will, Powers of Attorney (POA) for care and property and, what was less discussed twenty years ago, Advanced Care Planning. As it happens my Will and POAs are ready for some small updating, but this time advanced care will also be on the agenda.

So if, as the report suggests, people know the value of planning and the subsequent sad consequences from not doing so – what’s the reason for inaction? I recall facilitating group conversations where literally some have said things like “if I do a Will, I know fate will bring me an early death” or, “I don’t have enough of an estate to worry about.” Of course the other concern I heard was about the perceived high cost of legal fees which halted the move to getting to the matter.

How fortunate for me, straightforward household budgeting and for that matter, estate planning Wills and POAs were things I learned early on at home from my parents, not from the education system. Today, learning from professionals in these topic areas should not be that intimidating or made difficult to access. Regardless of your age, picking up this report would be a great start. Continue Reading…

Do you have a case of the “What If’s”?

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An Interview with Brian Watkins by Billy and Akaisha Kaderli, RetireEarlyLifestyle.com

Special to Financial Independence Hub

We at RetireEarlyLifestyle love to bring you retirement stories of people we have met. There’s no one right way to get to Financial Independence, and we are happy to bring Brian’s adventure to financial freedom to you.

Thank you, Brian, for taking the time to answer all our questions!

Brian Watkins enjoying his last year of teaching

Retire Early Lifestyle: Could you tell us a little about yourself, and how old you are?

Brian Watkins: Hi, as of 14 months ago I quit my job as a teacher, a position I held for 22 years, and at 48 decided to travel and enjoy a different lifestyle. I wanted a life with more freedom and less obligation to debt. I had spent a lifetime accepting that debt was part of the American lifestyle and just wanted something different.

REL: What got you started investing and when?

BW: In my very first year of teaching, I was broke and struggling from month to month. At work I saw sign that read “Free Pizza….. in the Library.” Not sure what the rest of the sign said but I was down with free pizza, so I headed to the library. Little did I know that with a slice came some financial advice. By the time I left I was investing $100 a month in a 403B and only going to see a $70 difference in my check. The lesson: live on less and invest!

REL: When did you know you were ready to retire and what motivated you?

BW: At 46 both my mother and father passed within six months of each other. I really didn’t want to risk working till death. So at that point I started working on my exit plan.

REL: What do you do for income generation?

BW: When I turn 55 I will be eligible to withdraw from my pension. I have a 403B in place that will be eligible at 591/2 and I currently live off the sale of my condo. My overall goal has been to live off 4% of my total investments.

REL: What do you plan to budget annually for your retirement?

BW: I had an educated idea of what my expenses might be but purchasing your book and tracking my expenses helped me more than you’ll ever know. In my first 12 months I spent $16,542. Eight months of that was for two people. My annual budget broke down as follows:

REL: Can you share with us anything about how your portfolio is structured?

BW: My current portfolio is 75% equities, 25% bonds.  

Puerto Galera, Philippines

REL: You are one of the new generation of Early Retirees who are well versed in a digital lifestyle. How have you used this technology to enhance your retirement?

BW: I have actually learned so much from the retirees who are digitally inclined. I use a Virtual Private Network (VPN) for those countries IP address that my bank blocks. I have a Google voice number so that I can call (or text) a U.S. number from Google Hangouts using wifi only.

The most important people to me have the Cash App and I can send or receive money on it and have it deposited for free (3 day waiting period) or for a fee same day. Continue Reading…

The 5 factors needed for timing your Retirement, and a 6th that shouldn’t be

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column reprises a couple of interesting takes on the key factors in deciding one’s timing of taking on Retirement. You can read the full column by clicking on the highlighted headline here: The 5 Factors of Retirement for Canadians.

One take is from the Plutus-award winning US blogger and author Fritz Gilbert; the second a Canadian take from MyOwnAdvisor’s Mark Seed.

Gilbert started the ball rolling back in April with a blog on his The Retirement Manifesto blog, entitled The 5 most important factors in your decision to retire. Gilbert is also the author of a book on retirement: Keys to a Successful Retirement. After more than 30 years in Corporate America, Fritz retired (as planned) in June 2018 at Age 55.

Then this site, as it often does with bloggers’ permissions, re-reran Gilbert’s blog late last year. It was then noticed by Mark, who was inspired to write his own version of the blog, with more of a Canadian spin and remarks on his personal perspective. It was also republished on the Hub.

So what was it that so intrigued three different financial bloggers (I’ll count this blog and the MoneySense column as evidence that three of us found it worthy of a write-up)?

Fritz Gilbert

Succinctly, here are the five factors originally identified by Gilbert:

  1. Do you have enough money?
  2. Are you mentally prepared for Retirement?
  3. Have you made a realistic spending estimate?
  4. Is your portfolio ready for withdrawals?
  5. What’s your risk tolerance?

            By now, you may be wondering about the mysterious sixth factor which in his blog Fritz says “doesn’t really matter at all.” Strangely, he adds, many people consider it to be the most important in their decision.

            Spoiler alert: if you like a bit of suspense, read Fritz’s original blog before proceeding. For those who want the quick-and-dirty reveal, if you’ve not already guessed, it’s your age. Or as Fritz wrote: “For once in your life, age has nothing to do with this decision.  Unlike driving, voting, and drinking, there are no legal constraints on when you can choose to retire.  As long as you can check the boxes on the important factors listed earlier, you can choose to retire regardless of your age.” Continue Reading…