Decumulate & Downsize

Most of your investing life you and your adviser (if you have one) are focused on wealth accumulation. But, we tend to forget, eventually the whole idea of this long process of delayed gratification is to actually spend this money! That’s decumulation as opposed to wealth accumulation. This stage may also involve downsizing from larger homes to smaller ones or condos, moving to the country or otherwise simplifying your life and jettisoning possessions that may tie you down.

What Tawcan is doing to cope with this Bear Market

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By Bob Lai, Tawcan

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you probably have heard that the stock market is crashing. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is down by 23.55% and the NASDAQ is down by 32.76%, and the Russell 2000 is down by 27.4%. The TSX YTD performance of -10.51% actually doesn’t seem too bad when we compare it to its US counterparts.

S&P 500 YTD performance_1

NASDAQ YTD performance_1

I’ll be frank. It’s tough to be an investor right now. Every day your portfolio value is probably down compared to the day before and when you check your net worth at the beginning of each month (if you check that often), it is shrinking fast like an ice cream cone inside a kid’s mouth.When the market is crashing and you’re losing your hard-earned money on paper, it can get really tough for investors. Some investors are probably losing sleep because of the beet-red stock market and want to sell everything and hide cash under their mattresses.Back in February 2020, when there were a lot of uncertainties and fear over the COVID-19 pandemic, the market tanked too. But as the uncertainties and fear cleared away, the market recovered and went for an amazing run.I’d say the current situation is entirely different than what we saw in Q1 2020. The key driver of the stock market crash is the high inflation rate.

Battling high inflation rate

Because interest rates were very low throughout 2020 and 2021, as pandemic restrictions started to lift and pent-up consumer demands for travel, cars, electronics, food, fuel, etc increased, this caused the inflation rate to rise quickly. The Russian invasion of Ukraine caused the price of oil and some commodities to soar further, which drove the CPI even higher.

Inflation rose 8.6% in May in the US, the highest since 1981 – more than four decades!. Here in Canada, we saw an inflation rate of around 6.7% in the same period. This is causing a lot of fear and angst. Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada are hiking interest rates quickly in an attempt to try to tame the high inflation rate.

Are we going to see the inflation rate start to go down quickly? Or are we’re now battling hyperinflation?

I don’t believe we’ll see hyperinflation like post-WWI in Germany and I think there’s no appetite to see inflation rates in the teens like in the early 80s. The central banks will simply not allow that to happen under their watch. But I have my doubts that the inflation rate will start to go down quickly.

I believe interest rates are still way too low and both the Fed and the BoC should be raising interest rates more aggressively (the Fed did hike interest rates by the biggest amount (0.75%) since 1994 recently). Can we agree that the central banks were too slow in reacting to the pandemic recovery and the pent-up consumer demands? Interest rates probably should have gone up last year but didn’t because there were still a lot of pandemic-related uncertainties.

One thing to keep in mind is that the Fed and the BoC are being very careful about hiking interest rates too quickly. Since many people purchased properties during the past couple of years in a heightened housing price period, some of them do not have additional cash each month to pay for higher mortgage interests. If the Fed and the BoC start to raise interest rates too quickly, this can cause people to default on their mortgages, creating a housing crash, similar to what we saw in the US during the financial crisis. (Apparently nearly 1 in 4 Canadian homeowners ay they’d have to sell their home if interest rates rise more, according to a survey)

Interest rates also impact the unemployment rate. As interest rates rise, companies may decide to freeze hires and lay off people to reduce operational costs and company debt levels. As people lose their jobs, they won’t spend as much money buying things and may have issues paying off mortgages and consumer debt. High unemployment rates also hurt the country’s GDP.

As you can see, interest rates can create a lot of cascade effects and this is why monetary policy can be a very interesting topic.

So what’s my guess when it comes to the high inflation rate? My guess is that the high inflation rate will peak and flatten out later in 2022 or early 2023 before it starts to trend down to the inflation target rates in late 2023.

That’s just a pure guess on my part. As we all know, it is nearly impossible to predict the future.

How do interest rates affect the stock market?  

Well, as interest rates go up, the yield for new bonds also goes up. Since bonds are safer than stocks, once bond yields reach a certain rate, bonds become more attractive to some investors and money starts to shift from the stock market to bonds. As people sell their stocks and buy more bonds, this puts pressure on the stock market (remember, stock prices are determined by demand and supply).

Furthermore, rising interest rates mean it is increasingly expensive for businesses to take out loans. So rising interest rates typically have a negative impact on companies that require a lot of new capital to grow. Tech companies usually are considered in this bucket, hence we’re seeing the likes of Amazon, Google, Tesla, Apple, and other major tech companies’ stock prices dropping like stones in the water.

Warren Buffett has repeatedly compared interest rates to gravity, as they represent the risk-free rate of return available to investors. This in turn affects the relative value of other assets. Since high interest rates make borrowing money more expensive, leveraged bets are therefore discouraged.

“The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates,” Buffett said last year. “If interest rates are destined to be at low levels. … It makes any stream of earnings from investments worth more money. The bogey is always what government bonds yield.” Continue Reading…

Case Study: Am I going to be okay when I retire?

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Photo by LinkedIn Sales Navigator from Pexels

By Ian Moyer

(Sponsor Content)

Pamela is a 63-year-old widow residing in Ontario, Canada with two adult children who live on their own. Pamela worked for more than 30 years as a Payroll Manager and was able to pay off her mortgage with the life insurance inheritance she received from her husband’s passing and put her savings towards retirement.

She is preparing to retire in two years and has increasing concerns about the amount she has saved for retirement.

Pamela earns $76,000 a year. Now age 63, she has saved:

  • $306,000 in a Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP), contributing $5000 annually until retirement
  • $36,000 in A Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA), contributing $1000 annually, which doubles as an emergency fund.
  • At age 65 Pamela plans on selling her cottage and adding $400,000 to her retirement funds.

Using Cascades Financial Solutions retirement income planning software, we help Pamela determine if she can retire at the age of 65 and sustain her lifestyle and accommodate traveling.

Pamela will decide to retire at the age of 65 if the after-tax income will meet her needs. With retirement fast approaching, she has three main questions:

  1. Do I have enough to retire? Pamala assumes she will need approximately 50% of her income to travel for five years.
  2. What are other income sources I can rely on? Pamela is concerned about the sustainability of her RRSP, TFSA and sale of the cottage alone.
  3. How do I deal with taxes? Pamela is unsure about the amount of taxes she will need to set aside.

Answering Pamela’s first question: “Do I have enough to retire?” The answer is YES! Based on her needs.

Using Cascades Financial Solutions, we’ve run a retirement income withdrawal plan resulting in three different ways to produce an after-tax annual retirement income of $45,703 for Pamela:

We’ve selected an asset allocation as moderate in the software: Moderate: 60% Fixed Income, 40% Equity,  5% rate of return and 2% inflation. All income and savings are reported in “today’s dollars” by Cascades.

Strategy Descriptions

Registered Funds First: This strategy involves creating retirement income from registered funds first, reducing the risk of leaving highly taxable investment accounts to an estate. The second priority is given to taxable non-registered accounts, leaving Tax Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) last.

Non-Registered Funds First: This strategy involves creating retirement income from non-registered funds first, deferring the income taxes payable on registered investments. The second priority is given to registered investments, leaving Tax Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) last.

Tax Free Funds First: This strategy involves creating retirement income from non-registered funds first and postpones the use of registered funds as long as possible. The second priority is given to Tax Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs), leaving registered funds last.

Determining a Winning Strategy: With all other factors being equal, the winning strategy provides a client longevity and the highest estate value, net of taxes and fees, at life expectancy. The differences in the net estate value represents the income tax savings of the winning strategy.  

Answering Pamela’s second question: “What are other income sources I can rely on?” There are two main programs that provide retirement income for most Canadians: the CPP or Quebec Pension Plan (QPP), and OAS.  The maximum CPP / QPP Pension you could receive starting at age 65 is $1,203.75 monthly ($14,445 annually) for 2021.[1]

Continue Reading…

New Equity-linked GICs offer equity twist on humble GIC

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By Rachel Megitt, Vice President,

Term Investments & Savings, RBC

(Sponsor Content)

If you’re looking to grow your money, the future looks a lot different than it did even a few months ago, given the current volatility in the markets and intensifying inflation.

We often hear the adage “big risk equals big reward,” but what if you want the reward but aren’t comfortable taking the risk? This is where a new twist on a traditional investment is proving to be a powerful option: equity-linked GICs (Guaranteed Investment Certificates).

In the summer of 2021, we shook up our product line-up and added two new equity-linked GICs that also represented RBC firsts and proudly shared the news, including in a Findependence blog.

New GICs with an equity twist

Within the first six months, we saw client enthusiasm about these two new “GICs with an equity twist” surge well beyond our expectations. Our clients have been clamouring for these GIC options and we believe this reflects the overall desire of Canadian investors to tap into what equity-linked GICs provide: the appealing combination of a guarantee for their initial investment, plus the higher return potential that comes with an equity investment.

While we knew we had created two truly compelling and competitive GICs, we never imagined how strongly these new GICs would resonate across the country. The buzz surrounding these equity-linked options is helping reshape investment conversations in Canada. These GICs offer investors who are reluctant to buy individual equities the opportunity to step into the world of equity investing at both a pace and level of risk they are comfortable with. Continue Reading…

An income strategy for new retirees: HDIF

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By David Kitai,  Harvest ETFs

(Sponsor Content)

One third of recently retired Canadians surveyed by RBC insurance said they retired sooner than they planned because of the COVID-19 pandemic. That same survey found that retirees, especially new retirees, are increasingly concerned about affording their retirement.

More than 78% of survey respondents said they were concerned about the impact of inflation on their savings. 47% said they were concerned about a lack of guaranteed income and 48% said they worry about outliving their savings.

All three of these concerns come down to income. New Canadian retirees, many of whom retired early due to COVID, are worried that they don’t have a stable source of income that can overcome the rapidly rising cost of living and last for their whole lifespans.

One income asset class can help with those worries.

Inflation worries come after years of low-yielding bonds

The income concerns discovered by the survey should come as no surprise. For the better part of a decade income yields from fixed income investments have been at or near historic lows. Retirees used to live on the income these investments provided but yields at sub 2% levels have been unsustainable.

More recently, rates have begun to rise as central banks attempt to reign in inflation. However, with inflation in spring of 2022 hitting levels above 6%, those rising bond yields are still paying negative real income.

That trend is reflected in the fact that 78% of survey respondents said they were concerned about inflation. Many traditional income sources seem incapable of matching what inflation has done to ordinary retirees’ balance sheets.

Many income sources, but not all.

Equity Income ETFs for retirees

An equity income ETF takes a portfolio of equities — stocks — and uses a combination of dividends and a covered call strategy to generate consistent monthly cashflows for unitholders. This results in an ETF with a target annual yield that can be as high as 8.5%, paid in the form of a monthly cash distribution. These assets can still participate in market growth opportunity, like an ordinary equity ETF, albeit with some growth opportunities limited due to the covered call strategy. The end result is a product paying consistent income with exposure to market growth opportunities. Continue Reading…

Building the Energy Dividend portfolio

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By Dale Roberts, cutthecrapinvesting

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

When it comes to sectors, energy is the most useful inflation fighter. In fact it is the only sector that has delivered positive real returns across every inflationary period, looking back some 100 years of stock market history. Energy stocks also delivered incredible returns during the stagflationary period of the 1970s and into the early 1980s. We have entered a stagflationary enviornment and (like the 70’s show) it includes an energy and commodities price shock. While I have enjoyed some very generous total returns from our energy ETFs, I am set to harvest most of those total returns, and will start building the energy dividend portfolio.

From an RBC report …

We peg free cash flow generation (before dividends) across  the Canadian majors — Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor Energy, Cenovus Energy and Imperial Oil

—at $46.0 billion in 2022 and $48.7 billion in 2023.”

The free cash flow gushers are just ridiculous. The dividends (and investors) are enriched by that free cash flow.

Here’s a Tweet thread from Larry Short that sets the table.

Yes, have a look for my “Don’t drill baby, don’t drill” reply.

You can also have a look at the quarterly update video from iA Private Wealth.

They’ve stopped drilling and now they’re filling – your brokerage account. From that very good video, Larry picks up an interesting chart from our friends at Ninepoint Partners.

You might say this is the money chart, the money shot.

Canadian energy stocks

And here is a post on Cut The Crap Investing that invited readers to consider investing in Canadian energy stocks, from October of 2020. That was about 300% ago. With even more gains available if you invested in the Ninepoint Energy Fund.

I have admitted to being late to eat my own cooking. In our accounts we have gains in the 100% to 150% range. In a TFSA account, I have sold a modest amount of shares in iShares XEG to pay our price at the pump for the next year or two. Being that I am in the semi-retirement stage with my wife being 2-5 years away from retirement, I will make that transition, selling down shares and moving the proceeds to dividend-paying stocks and specialized income-producing energy ETFs. That will take away the price risk for the energy producer sector. But certainly, the financial health of the sector and the companies is still very important. Only healthy companies (and sectors) deliver stable or growing dividends. Continue Reading…