Family Formation & Housing

For young couples starting families, buying their first home and/or other real estate. Covers mortgages, credit cards, interest rates, children’s education savings plans, joint accounts for couples and the like.

Inflation and the 5% Solution

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https://advisor.wellington-altus.ca/standupadvisors

By John de Goey, CFP, CIM

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

One thing that many economic historians often overlook is that one’s worldview is shaped by life experiences.  That includes matters like love, marriage and divorce, money and savings and attitudes toward political risk – to name a few.  If our values, likes and dislikes are shaped by our experiences, it stands to reason that our perceptions of what the future might hold could be largely informed by what we have already experienced.  That’s especially true of the things we experience in our formative years.

In the summer of 2021, for the first time in over a generation, there’s been some talk of inflation being a going concern.    Inflation was wrestled to the ground in the 1980s and hasn’t been heard from since – until now.  As the debate rages about the degree to which we should be concerned (if at all) about inflation coming back in a meaningful way, it is noteworthy that while there are credible economists on both sides of the debate, virtually everyone in the “inflation will be a problem” camp is at least 70 years old.  Stated differently, those people who experienced inflation in their adult lives are concerned and those who did not are not.

Transitory inflation?

For about 30 years now, the goal of central banks in the west has been one of price stability, which they define as inflation at 2%, give or take 1%.  Basically, anything between 1% and 3% is okay.  Now, we’ve experienced inflation above 3% for a couple of quarters and people naturally wonder what that might mean.  Central Bankers have been assuring us that the uptick is “transitory,” that it is just a situation where awful data from the early days of the COVID crisis is working its way through the system.  Nothing to see here.  Move along.

Although I am technically old enough to remember inflation, I never had to deal with it personally or directly.  I was a teenager when my parents built the family home on their property in 1979.  I heard about their astronomical, double-digit mortgage rates, but never had to experience anything of the sort as the payor.  My sense is that young people – especially millennials – cannot relate to anything close to what I’m about to say: the inflation rates, and therefore the mortgage rates and interest rates you have experienced throughout your entire lives, may not be around for much longer.  Furthermore, if that is true, the consequences could be enormous.

5% constitutes “Real inflation”

As mentioned, there are competing views on inflation.  I have not come down on either side, but I enjoy the exchange of ideas.  If the doves are right and the inflation we’re seeing now is little more than a passing phase, there’s not much to say because little will change.  If, however, real inflation is coming sooner than later and for longer than just a phase, we need to prepare.  What constitutes ‘real inflation’, you may ask.  My guess is something like 5%.  At that level, no one can pretend that the inflation rate is not a concern and does not need to be dealt with.  For this discussion to be meaningful, inflation needs to be at least 2% above the high end of the traditional range and to stay there for at least a year.  At that point, both the logic behind it being transitory and the facile dismissal of it being above the target by an inconsequential amount disappear.  At that level, something needs to give. Continue Reading…

Flying the Findependence Flag: My appearance on Patrick Francey’s The Everyday Millionaire podcast

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The Everyday Millionaire podcast starring REIN’s Patrick Francey has just released its one-hour-plus interview with me. You can find it (audio) on the regular podcast channels by clicking this title: Flying the Findependence Flag.

The podcast has been going since 2017, and sports the slogan “Ordinary people doing extraordinary things.”

It was a wide-ranging and surprisingly personal interview. Most of Francey’s guests are real estate millionaires: given the bull market in Canadian residential real estate it’s not surprising that most of Francey’s guests are technically millionaires: even starter homes in Toronto are going for a million dollars.

REIN’s Patrick Francey

Patrick Francey is the CEO of REIN, the Real Estate Investment Network, with which I have long been familiar: my daughter Helen once worked there. Sadly, as you will discover on the podcast, I confess that our family never made the plunge into investment real estate beyond owning a principal residence in Toronto. We discuss the fact that while real estate is an excellent way to achieve Financial Independence, some of us are more comfortable with investing in financial assets like stocks and bonds: in so-called “clicks” rather than “bricks.”

The foundation of Financial Independence

As I say in the interview as well as the recently updated US edition of my financial novel, Findependence Day, job one is to purchase a principal residence and pay down the mortgage as soon as possible; hence the saying “The Foundation of Financial Independence is a paid-for home.” Continue Reading…

What would Employees give up to keep Remote Work? 

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By Mike Brown

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Because of the coronavirus pandemic, there was almost a universal shift to remote work.

It wasn’t supposed to be permanent, just a temporary move to help mitigate the spread of the virus. 

But then employers and employees got used to remote work and some interesting statistics started popping up. A Stanford study of 16,000 workers found working from home increased productivity by 13%, while also leading to improved work satisfaction and a 50% slash in attrition rates. 

A survey by ConnectSolutions found 77% of employees displayed increased productivity if they worked from home just a few times a month. The same study found 30% did more work in less time while working remotely. 

In summation, remote work was a success. 

So successful that now, as the coronavirus pandemic subsides just a bit, there is a fight between employers and employees regarding the return to the office. 

Employees are getting their work done like they always did, sometimes even doing more. They have a case to fight the return to the office. 

In that same vein, employers understand the value of teamwork, camaraderie, and face-to-face interactions. They too have a case to bring back the office.

It will surely be a messy fight mainly because employees now see remote work as part of the new reality, not just a temporary fad. They value their remote work flexibility like they would value salary, benefits, or paid time off, and they will just move to the next employer if their current one makes a return to the office mandatory.

To capture this value placed on remote work, Breeze conducted a survey of 1,000 Americans to see what they would give up if they were able to retain remote work. It’s important to note this survey is meant to capture the value of remote work, not offer suggestions to employers on how they can cut benefits or pay in exchange for remote work.

To have the option of working remotely full-time at their current or next employer, 65% of employees would take a 5% pay cut, 38% would take a 10% pay cut, 24% would take a 15% pay cut, 18% would take a 20% pay cut, and 15% would take a 25% pay cut. 

Moreover, 39% would give up health insurance benefits to retain full-time remote work. Breeze found the average monthly health insurance premium is $187, and most workers have a large percentage of this monthly cost picked up by their employers.

With so many willing to give up this crucial employee benefit, it gives you a good sense of the incredible value that is being placed on remote work. Continue Reading…

What the new Higher Stress Test means for Homebuyers

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Image courtesy of Loans Canada

By Sean Cooper

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Ever since the start of COVID, the real estate market has been on fire. To help deal with the record level of activity in the real estate market and also keep things balanced, a new mortgage stress test was introduced June 1st. In this article we’ll look at the new mortgage stress test and how it affects you.

What’s the Stress Test?

The stress test is a measure that anyone buying a home, refinancing their mortgage or switching mortgage lenders must pass. Pretty much the only time you don’t have to pass the stress test is when you’re renewing your mortgage with your existing lender. Whether you’re buying a home with less or more than 20 per cent, it doesn’t matter. You’re affected by the stress test.

The stress test was introduced several years back to help protect homebuyers from becoming overleveraged and taking on too much mortgage debt. Prior to the stress test, you only had to prove that you could afford mortgage payments based on the mortgage rate when you first sign up for your mortgage. However, with Canadians spending more and more on homes and the threat of higher interest rates looming, the Canadian government decided to introduce the stress test in early 2018 out of precaution.

To pass the stress test, you need to show that you can qualify at the greater of your mortgage rate plus two per cent and the stress test rate (currently at 5.25 per cent). With mortgage rates currently somewhere in between the mid one percent’s and the mid two per cent’s for both fixed and variable rate mortgages, you’ll almost always have to qualify at 5.25 per cent as things stand today.

How has the Stress Test changed?

The new stress test rules came into effect June 1st. Prior to the introduction of the new stress test rules, the mortgage stress test rate was 4.79 per cent. That’s because it was based on the average of the big banks’ posted mortgage rates. However, the government decided to change how the stress test was calculated. Continue Reading…

Everything you need to know about Multifamily Commercial Real Estate Investing

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Real estate low-rise construction building for multiple families

By Veronica Baxter

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

If you are looking to get serious about real estate investing, then a multifamily commercial real estate investment offers you a great ROI, portfolio diversity, and strong growth potential. But, before we get too far ahead, what exactly is a multifamily property?

What is a Multifamily Property?

In the commercial real estate sector, a multifamily property is an apartment building that has five or more units. According to this definition, multifamily properties are very diverse. They can include everything from towering apartment complexes to city rowhomes converted by property developers.

Because there is a wide range of property types that can be designated as multifamily property, many smaller investors with less capital than large investment conglomerates can potentially reap some of the benefits.

Later on in the post, we will discuss three methods investors use to invest in real estate, but it helps to mention them here to show that even smaller investors can get in on the lucrative returns of real estate. Investors can directly purchase the property or pool their capital with other investors in a real estate investment trust or private equity firm.

Opportunities for both Passive and Active Investors

Another benefit of investing in multifamily commercial real estate is that it is profitable whether or not you are an active or passive investor. As the names imply, active and passive investors assume opposite engagement roles with their investments. Though there is plenty of nuance and overlap between the two, in general, passive investors are in it for the long haul. They plan to hold on to the property for as long as possible. In contrast, active investors see multifamily property as an opportunity to buy cheap, renovate and sell at a higher price.

For Passive Investors

Passive investors often leave the property management and financial management to other parties, which truly embodies the idea of passive income. Many of these investors receive only quarterly disbursements from the portfolio manager and have little else to do with the procedural technicalities. Passive investors, in this sense, only really front the initial investment and reap the rewards.

This passive strategy has been shown to be less risky over time and, as a result, more lucrative. In addition, passive investors see multifamily commercial real estate investments as tangible assets to grow their wealth in.

For Active Investors

Active investors search the markets for opportunistic buys. For example, they often look for cheaper, older property to renovate and refurbish into more expensive multifamily property. Then, after the flip, they either sell for a much higher price or hold if the asset is projected to appreciate rapidly. In general, active investors take more risks than passive investors, but when they strike gold, the profits come fast.

They are much more hands-on in their approach, working alongside developers, contractors, and designers to upgrade older properties. As a result, they must know the commercial real estate process and terminologies, such as NOI, commercial real estate cap rate, and other terms.

Benefits of Multifamily Commercial Real Estate Investing

Whether you seek to become an active or a passive investor, there are numerous benefits to multifamily real estate investing. Here are a few of the advantages:

Diversification

Having a diverse investment portfolio helps to mitigate the risks associated with economic downturns. Generally, commercial real estate is not highly correlated with the movement of the stock market, so it is an ideal asset class to hold opposite of stocks. Moreover, having wealth invested across various assets is the surest way to reduce risks if the stock market crashes or in lieu of a natural disaster that disrupts the global markets.

“Forced” Appreciation

Commercial property is valued on NOI, or net operating income, whereas residential real estate is usually valued on comparisons with other similar properties. NOI valuations allow property managers to directly increase the value of their property by raising rent and reducing operation costs. This alters the NOI equation, which, in turn, raises the value of their property. This is called forced appreciation.

Dispersion of Vacancy Risk

The more units in a property, the less any one vacancy will affect revenue. This is one significant benefit to investing in a multifamily property. If you rent out your residential property, you are solely dependent on your tenant for income. However, the more tenants you have, the less impactful a single vacancy will be. Multifamily property investments reduce the risks associated with numerous vacancies.

Lease Escalations

It is common practice for commercial leases to have escalation clauses built into them. These clauses stipulate rent increases over time. If operational costs generally remain stable, then the yearly ROI increases with the periodic rent increases.

What are different ways to Invest?

As mentioned above, there are three main ways investors can invest their capital in multifamily real estate. These different methods allow both large and small investors to get a stake in commercial property.

Direct Purchase

A direct purchase involves an investor or group of investors coming together to purchase commercial property directly. They usually form an LLC for liability purposes and have total control over the process. This freedom comes with a cost, however. The investors are responsible for finding a property, raising capital, and negotiating a deal. Once purchased, the investors are then entirely responsible for managing the property, drawing up leases, and outreaching to potential tenants.

This is a very involved route. For new investors looking to diversify their investment portfolio, this might not be the best place to start.

Real Estate Investment Trusts

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are corporations that perform the above functions of a direct purchaser but as a corporate entity. Investors buy shares or stocks in the corporation, which can be publicly or privately traded. Continue Reading…