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In the pursuit of financial security for all, we can’t overlook older widowed women

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | December 5, 2023

By Christine Van Cauwenberghe

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Canada has a bold vision – to build a more accessible, inclusive and effective financial literacy ecosystem for all. The five-year plan, laid out in the National Financial Literacy Strategy 2021-2026, is an important step forward to achieving sweeping financial literacy. But one cohort is noticeably absent from this ambitious strategy – older widowed women.

During Financial Literacy Month in November, we had an opportunity to cast a light on financial education and empowerment for this often overlooked and underserved, but statistically significant, group. In 2022, there were approximately 1.5 million widowed women compared to the roughly 472,000 widowed men, reports Statista Research Department. As our nation nears “super-aged” status, where 20 per cent of our population will be 65 years or older, these numbers will continue to climb.

Longer life expectancies for women, paired with women generally marrying or partnering with older men, leaves them more likely to spend at least some of their retirement in widowhood. As such, it’s estimated that 90 per cent of women will become the sole financial decision-maker at some point in their lifetime, representing a substantial segment of Canada’s wealth management sector.

Lower financial literacy than male counterparts

However, this same group generally reports lower levels of financial literacy than their male counterparts. While many reasons account for this disparity, traditional societal norms play a significant role – older generations of women were more likely to stay home and rear children while men typically joined the workforce, granting them greater financial exposure.

Now, we have an opportunity and a responsibility to change this. Widespread financial literacy matters, but in our effort to educate the masses we can’t leave certain groups behind. By narrowing the knowledge gap, we can empower widowed women from and after the Silent Generation with a voice – we can give them a say in their own financial future.

Women will soon control half of accumulated Wealth

By 2026, women in Canada will control roughly half of all accumulated financial wealth, estimates Strategic Insights, up from one-third a decade earlier. While this is a welcomed shift, many women’s’ lack of core financial understanding and involvement is sobering. Too often, it’s men who assume a leading role in personal wealth management, specifically retirement and estate planning. This despite the fact that women, on average, survive their husbands by roughly five years. Yet, only 17 per cent of women in Canada over the age of 65 have an up-to-date will, according to a survey from LegalWills Canada. Continue Reading…

The Thucydides Trap and the Challenges facing China’s Rise

Posted By Pat McKeough | December 4, 2023

Examining the Thucydides Trap including factors impacting China’s economic and geopolitical growth

Shanghai Lujiazui civic landscape: Deposit Photos

Thucydides, a fourth-century BC Athenian historian and general, wrote a book about the Peloponnesian War, a conflict between Athens and Sparta. He concluded that the war was inevitable due to the growth of Athenian power and the fear it caused in Sparta. This idea, the Thucydides Trap, has been generalized to suggest that when a rising power challenges a dominant power, war becomes unavoidable.

The concept of the “Thucydides Trap” re-emerged in recent years, with some authors suggesting that the U.S. and China were likely to go to war based on Thucydides’ observations. However, comparing the economic power of China and the U.S. solely based on the size and growth rate of their GDPs can be misleading. China’s larger population should be taken into account, and when considering per-capita GDP, the U.S. still surpasses China.

The export boom in Asia started in the 1960s, led by Japan, and was followed by Taiwan, South Korea, and China. Each country developed its own export capabilities. However, China, despite its late start, has faced challenges in reaching the high-end market and relies on importing high-end components. On the other hand, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan excel in high-value manufacturing goods, such as advanced computer chips.

Massive inequality and limited consumption

China’s focus on expanding its workforce and factory output, rather than raising worker incomes, has contributed to its growth but has also led to massive inequality and limited consumption. The Chinese approach contrasts with the Western emphasis on using technology to raise productivity and wages. Additionally, China’s reliance on low-cost unskilled labor and its demographic challenges, resulting from the one-child policy, pose long-term problems for the country.

Russia’s war on Ukraine is not a clear example of a rising power challenging the U.S. and NATO. Russia has been a declining power for decades and has used outdated weapons in the conflict. The beating Russia has faced in Ukraine has surprised many and may have disappointed Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who may have hoped that Russia could distract the U.S. and NATO while China pursues its own long-term plans. After all, Russia has carried out some successful invasions in the past couple of decades, even if they haven’t recovered much of the lost Soviet Empire. But China itself hasn’t been in a war of any consequence since its 1979 border clash with Vietnam.

I.P. Theft

The U.S. announcement of broad new limits on sales of semiconductor technology to China has been viewed by some as a war-like gesture. However, China’s technological gains have often involved theft of intellectual property, according to foreign firms and individuals who have worked there and invested their own money.

They say that enforcing intellectual property rights in China is difficult for foreigners due to local judicial protectionism, difficulties in obtaining evidence, small damage awards, and a perceived bias against foreign firms.

China also forces foreign joint-venture operators to share their designs and patents with local partners, who may then go off and sell copies elsewhere in China or Asia. Many accept the demand, just to get access to the vast Chinese market.

More ambitious Chinese businesses may simply buy a copy of a competitor’s product and reverse-engineer it if that’s all it takes: just pirate the technology, in other words. In The End of the World is Just the Beginning, however, Peter Zeihan wrote,

“Or, if we’re being brutally honest, to successfully reverse-engineer the products of others: Don’t get me wrong, I don’t feel great when I see a new story about some Chinese spy successfully funneling American military technology to Beijing. But please keep it in perspective. China didn’t figure out how to make a ball-point pen without imported components till 2017. The idea that China can get a set of blueprints and suddenly be able to cobble together a stealth bomber or advanced missile system is a bit of a scream.”

Demographics is a key negative for China

China’s demographic situation is a significant long-term problem. The one-child policy and forced migration from the interior to the coast have resulted in an aging workforce and a shrinking labour pool. As retirees increase, the government will face challenges in supporting them with reduced tax revenue and a smaller labour force.

The key indicator of future population is the number of children the average woman has in her lifetime. The “replacement number” that keeps population stable is 2.1 children. The UN estimates that China’s rate dropped to 1.16 in 2021 from just under 3.0 in the early 1980s, and 2.5 as recently as 1990. After decades of government family-size control, the new legalization of larger families has not yet caught on. Continue Reading…

Most Canadians unprepared for Retirement & running out of time, Deloitte study finds

Posted By Jonathan Chevreau | December 1, 2023

A majority of nearly retired Canadian households — 55 per cent — will have to make lifestyle changes to avoid running out of money in their old age, says a Deloitte Canada report released on Wednesday.

Worse, that percentage jumps to almost three quarters (73%) if you factor in unexpected costs like health care, long-term care costs and occasional one-off expenses. You can find the full release here from Canada Newswire.

Some 4,000 retired and near-retired Canadian households were surveyed, all between ages 55 and 64.

The resulting report is titled Running out of time: An urgent call to fortify Canada’s private retirement pillars. It includes recommendations that can help 38 per cent of near-retirees achieve better financial security in retirement, and generate billions for the financial services industry.

Other findings include:

“By employing a host of radical and innovative solutions, Canada can help to protect those vulnerable both near and in-retirement, and set a global standard for how it tackles retirement on the world stage,” says Hwan Kim, Partner, Financial Services Innovation and Open Banking at Deloitte Canada in the press release, “Given roughly 40 per cent of retirement wealth inequality is due to a lack of financial knowledge, the financial services ecosystem must collaborate with the health care system and public sector to equip Canadians with accessible retirement advice, holistic near-retirement offerings, updated pension planning, quality health care, and new resources to retire confidently.”

The report concedes the saving for Retirement has always been “a daunting challenge for working Canadians,” things have gotten worse the last few years. The shift from employer-provided guaranteed Defined Benefit pensions to group RRSPs and Defined Contribution pensions that fluctuate with financial markets is a major hurdle. The report also cites the rising costs of retirement, a lack of high-quality, near-retirement planning resources, and unexpected expenses during late-stage retirement.

According to the report, 55 per cent of near-retiree households will need to make lifestyle changes to avoid outliving their financial savings – a number that is expected to jump to 73% when factoring in unexpected expenses such as healthcare, long-term care costs, and one-off expenditures.

A Bank of Montreal survey released early in 2023 found Canadians believe they need $1.7 million to retire. My blog on this in February asked whether this was doable or not.

Financial services silos must collaborate

The Deloitte report says the Canadian financial services “ecosystem must collaborate across banking, wealth management, insurance, and the public sector.” This ecosystem needs to focus on three main categories of commercially viable solutions: improve the quality and accessibility of near-retirement advice and products, help retirees manage rising retirement costs, and help Canadians build healthy saving habits early on. Continue Reading…

The Power of Low-Fee Core Bond ETFs in your Investment Portfolio

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | November 30, 2023

By Alizay Fatema, Associate Portfolio Manager, BMO ETFs

(Sponsor Blog)

The latest economic data unveils a captivating narrative of a strong and resilient economy in both Canada and the U.S. The current inflation stickiness and robust job market numbers make a solid case for the central banks in both countries to keep interest rates higher for longer.

Towards the end of September 2023, markets basked in record-high yields. However, earlier this month, based on the current situation in the Middle East, bond yields fell owing to an increase in demand for safer assets and caused longer-term bond prices to surge. U.S. consumer prices remained elevated for the month of September and a pullback in demand for a treasury auction pushed longer-term yields higher again, resulting in 10-yr U.S Treasury yields touching their highest point since 2007. On the contrary, the recent CPI printed lower than expectations in Canada, yet the yields remain high as hot economic data continues to build pressure south of the border.

Source: Bloomberg

Given the current two-decade-high interest rates, yields on Aggregate Bond ETFs have surpassed 5%, making them an interesting avenue for fixed-income investors. Before we dive in further, let’s discuss some aggregate bond ETFs in detail along with their benefits.

Aggregate Bond ETFs as the Core of your Investment Strategy

Aggregate bond ETFs are exchange traded funds that aim to track performance of a diversified portfolio of bonds. These ETFs are referred to as core because it reflects their status as a foundational building block of a well-rounded investment portfolio. These ETFs can help investors achieve diversification, steady income & stability within their investment portfolios. BMO currently offers two Aggregate Bond ETFs:

BMO Aggregate Bond Index ETF (ZAG) aims to replicate the performance of the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index. This ETF primarily invests in a Canadian investment-grade fixed income securities consisting of Federal, Provincial and Corporate bonds, with a term to maturity greater than one year.
BMO US Aggregate Bond Index ETF (ZUAG) tracks the performance of the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index. It invests in U.S. investment-grade bonds such as U.S. treasury bonds, government-related bonds, corporate bonds, mortgage-backed pass-through securities, and asset backed securities with a term to maturity greater than one year. ZUAG is also offered as hedged to CAD (ZUAG.F) and in USD (ZUAG.U).

Source: BMO Asset Management.

These aggregate bond ETFs have proven to be an extremely viable investment solution owing to their key features:

The Symphony of Diversification: Aggregate Bond ETFs provide exposure to a broad spectrum of bond market offering diversification across the curve, various sectors and segments, maturities, issuers, and credit qualities; making them resilient for any market environment.

For example, in the current high-interest rate environment, exposure to short duration bonds might provide some down-side protection. On the other hand, if central banks start cutting rates, then longer duration can provide some upside potential.

Aggregate Bond ETFs can also be considered an equity market hedge. Given the inverse correlation between equities and bonds, they can provide a cushion against market turbulence and can potentially outperform stocks during selloffs.

Harnessing Cost Efficiency through Lower Fees: These ETFs are passively managed with the aim to track performance of the aforesaid indices. Their expense ratios are lower as compared to some actively managed funds, thereby reducing overall investment costs and improving net returns for investors. BMO is currently charging a Management Expense Ratio of 0.09% for both ZAG & ZUAG.

Liquidity & Ease of Trading: Like all other ETFs, ZAG & ZUAG are traded on stock exchanges, enabling investors to easily buy and sell shares throughout the trading day, allowing them to see real-time prices. The bid-ask spreads on these products are lower in contrast with the underlying bonds which enhances their liquidity compared to traditional bonds, making them a cost-effective way to attain the exposure to the aggregate bond market.

Navigating Risk Management through High Credit Quality: Aggregate Bond ETFs are perceived as a stable and safer investment option as they provide exposure to investment-grade bonds, which are considered to have lower risk as opposed to high-yield or junk bonds. In the current rising interest rate environment, the credit quality & relative stability of the investment grade bonds make them an appealing choice for investors seeking to minimize risk & preserve capital.

Combined with the key features mentioned above, these Aggregate Bond ETFs provide investors with a low-cost core in any investment portfolio. They distribute monthly interest payments, providing a steady stream of income. These ETFs emphasize on preservation of capital and provide transparency and visibility into the funds’ composition and their underlying assets. Continue Reading…

Interview with Harvest ETFs CEO Michael Kovacs on how Retirees can generate income in volatile markets

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | November 28, 2023

The following is an edited transcript of an interview with Michael Kovacs, CEO of Harvest ETFs, conducted by Financial Independence Hub CFO Jonathan Chevreau.

Jon Chevreau (JC)

Thanks for taking the time today, Michael. We all know that 2022 was a pretty bad year as markets were impacted by higher interest rates. That turbulence bled into much of 2023, although the last few weeks have seemed much rosier.

How do you respond to unitholders of funds who are currently down year over year? Does your covered call writing protect retirees?

Michael Kovacs (MK)

Thanks for having me, Jon. It is important to remember that we offer equity income funds. That means that you have to look at the total return of the product, which includes the price of the ETF and its accumulating distributions.

Yes, there has been turbulence in 2022 and through much of 2023. However, over that period, products like the Harvest Healthcare Leaders Income Fund (HHL) have paid consistent distributions.

Let’s look at the Harvest Diversified Monthly Income ETF (HDIF). In terms of actual returns, this ETF is down nearly double-digit percentage-wise in the year-over-year period (as of early November). But, when you look at the distributions paid over that same period, HDIF has delivered positive cashflow for its unitholders, which reduces the decline by more than half.

Are you saying that between the covered calls, the distribution and the leverage plus the underlying equity income, that a retiree could expect annual yields as high as 10% or 12% or higher?

Yes. Yields are anywhere from 1.5% to 3%, depending on the equity category. Then you have option writing. We can go right up to 33% on any of those portfolios, which generates additional yield. So, to be able to generate 9-10% is very achievable. And we’ve been able to do that consistently for a quite a few years now.

What is your view on the current interest rate climate? Have we reached a top? If so, when will they start to come down?

Many of us remember the high interest rates of the 1980s, especially some of your readers who were trying to obtain their first mortgages. We have experienced a big jump in interest rates over the past two years. However, we believe that we have probably seen the top for rates for now. Or, if we haven’t, we are very close to the top. That means there are going to be some great opportunities in fixed-income markets. The next move for interest rates may be down by mid-to-late 2024.

That said, there are still great opportunities that will benefit equities and bonds in the current climate. Our first launch in the Bond area is the Harvest Premium Yield Treasury ETF (HPYT). We’ve launched with a high current yield. We are targeting long treasury bonds in this fund. This is about generating a high level of income while owning a very good credit-worthy security like a U.S. Treasury. So, if rates start declining next year, it is a great time to be holding fixed income.

Findependence Hub readers tend to be retirees who want steady cash flow. What is Harvest’s view of cash flow for retirees?

I think cash flow for retirees is essential. Once your employment income has gone, you must depend on your investments, your pensions, your CPP, and so on. The recent increases in interest rates have been good for retirees in the short term. Higher rates allow retirees to keep shorter-term cash and generate a safe yield of 5% or more.

Our longer-term equity products aim to have that heavy bias toward equities. For example, the Harvest Healthcare Leaders Income ETF (HHL) is typically written at about 25-28% average, with the other 70% or so fully exposed to health care stocks. The covered call option writing strategy allows us to generate a high level of income.

Cash flow is the basis behind our name: Harvest. People have spent decades building up capital, sowing the seeds. Our products allow them to harvest the fruits of their life-long labour.

We believe our equity-income and fixed-income products are a fantastic way to do that. If we can help you preserve capital and generate consistent income, we are doing our job.

There is also interest among investors in asset allocation ETFs. Is HDIF essentially your answer to that demand?

You’re correct. Some people prefer to allocate to specific funds, but the idea behind HDIF is to allocate to the best of Harvest’s top products that generate cash flow. In the case of HDIF, you do have a leverage component. You are increasing the yield but at the same time, you do increase your risk as well. Continue Reading…

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