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How to use Statistics to Lie to yourself about a Stock Crash

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By Michael J. Wiener

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Wouldn’t it be great if we could predict the future movements of stock markets so we could capture the gains and avoid the losses?  It turns out we can’t, but that doesn’t stop people from trying.

After a Twitter exchange with John De Goey, I ended up reading the article The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE as a Predictor of Returns by Michael Finke.  He gives a chart that appears to show we can predict the coming decade of stock returns by calculating what is known as the CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio).

For our purposes, we don’t need to know much about the CAPE other than that it is a measure of how expensive stocks are and that it was invented by Robert Shiller, who received a Nobel Prize in Economics in 2013.  In fact, we don’t even have to calculate the CAPE ourselves; it is freely available and updated daily.

Right now, stock prices are very high.  As I write this, the CAPE for U.S. stocks stands at 37.  The only time it was higher in the past century was during the tech boom and bust around the year 2000.  We seem to be repeating the boom part, and the fear is that we may soon repeat the bust part.

Here is my reproduction of a chart similar to Finke’s chart:

Finke’s chart used nominal U.S. stock returns rather than real (inflation-adjusted) returns, but they show the same thing: an apparently close relationship between the CAPE and U.S. stock returns over the subsequent decade.  Given the current CAPE, stock returns appear to be predictable to within +/- 3% per year.  That would be amazingly accurate if true.

Based on this chart and the fact that the CAPE is currently 37, we’d expect the average annual stock return in the next 10 years to be between inflation minus 4% and inflation plus 1.5%.  If true, this would clearly mean it makes sense to sell stocks.  De Goey made his position clear in an article titled Get Out!.

Sadly, there holes in this story.  Nobel Prize winner Shiller invented the CAPE, but he isn’t involved with Finke’s paper, despite De Goey’s implication when he defended Finke’s chart saying “Oh, and the guy who came up with the concept has a Nobel Prize.”

You might wonder how the chart above has so many points when we’re talking about 10-year returns and it covers only 25 years of stock market data.  The answer is that the chart uses 300 overlapping 10-year periods.  So, each point represents a starting month.  Two successive months are likely to have nearly the same CAPE and nearly the same 10-year annual returns.  So, we get lots of bunched up dots.

But the truth is that we have very little data.  We really only have two independent 10-year periods.  Despite the impressive correlation the chart shows, we’re extrapolating from little information.

To show the problem, let’s repeat this chart for another time period:

I didn’t choose this date range at random; I selected it to make a point.  If we were to devise a strategy based on this chart, we’d say not to worry if the CAPE gets high because you’ll still get decent returns.  But when the CAPE is in the 17 to 18 range, stocks are either going on a big run, or they’ll crash, and you have to be ready to get out.  This is obviously nonsense.  It’s dangerous to try to build strategies on too little information.

Here’s a chart using S&P 500 stock data from 1936 to the present:

This data still only covers seven independent decades, but we can see the real picture of the relationship between the CAPE and stock returns is a lot fuzzier than the first chart made it seem.  We can still reasonably guess that a higher CAPE reduces future expected stock returns, but the range of returns is still wide. Continue Reading…

Bonds are back but what did they just say?

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By Dale Roberts, cutthecrapinvesting

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Bonds are the adult in the room. And when they speak, we should probably hear them out. This week [late June] bonds went on a tear. What were bonds trying to say? They were listening to the ‘Fed Speak’ in the U.S. that left many confused. Of course, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Reserve Chairman set the overnight rates that affect bond markets and our borrowing costs. It’s an economic lever. Maybe the adults in the room are suggesting that inflation is not a threat? We’ll see deflation in the near future? Or maybe a recession is closer than we think?

Here’s a good barometer for the bond market and economic sentiment – long term U.S. treasuries.

They’ve had a good month (and more) and they had an explosive week. The index ETF was up about 3% over the last two days. Long term treasuries are known as some of the best stock market risk managers. They punch above their weight.

Must read: Bonds are the adult in the room.

Recently I suggested that the stock and bond markets are buying the transitory inflation argument.

And in my most recent MoneySense weekly I had a look at some of the economic data for Canada and the U.S., including that recent Fed Speak and reaction.

Perhaps the bond market is going well beyond saying ‘inflation is transitory’. Let’s have a listen to what a few experts say about this weeks stock and bond activity.

David Rosenberg says look out below.

In a recent Globe and Mail piece Mr. Rosenberg suggested that inflation jitters will turn into deflation fear by year end. (pay wall) Of course bonds like deflation. And that’s one reason why we hold bonds right? Even though almost no one thinks that we could enter a long period of economic contraction and deflation. From Mr. Rosenberg …

“When these temporary disturbances fall out of the data, people are going to be surprised at how low the readings are going to be on these official inflation statistics,” the famed Canadian economist said in an interview Friday.

“I think we’re going to go back to talking about disinflation and deflation [by] the end of the year.”

The boring balanced portfolio is having its way these days. Stocks for growth and bonds for ballast and no-growth scenarios. Readers will know that I am also a fan of covering off inflation as well, you’ll read about that in the new balanced portfolio.

Investing is like a box of chocolates.

To quote Forrest Gump, you just never know what you’re going to get. This past week gave us that big and important reminder. Who would have thought that bond investors would have a such a sweet week? I’m happy to hold long term treasuries and that TLT and the BMO Canadian dollar version in ZTL.

Mike Philbrick at ReSolve Asset Management offered via Twitter …

No one knows the future price of any asset class so diversification is incredibly important as the first line of defense.

And as an example, pick your poison of inflation or deflation or economic shocks of any variety. More from Mike …

Another great example, why making sure investors are always exposed to inflation shocks rather than trying to time it … Money and mindshare piled in recently but all the returns came months before that, when investors were not noticing.

Perhaps there is no real economic growth?

Perhaps the bond markets echo Lance Roberts (no relation), CIO and partner at RIA Advisors, with respect to what is real and sustainable economic growth?

The reason that rates are discounting the current “economic growth” story is that artificial stimulus does not create sustainable organic economic activity.

And on the inflation front from Lance, you can’t create real inflation from artificial growth. From that post …

Yes, we see that word “deflation” again.

Rethinking the 60/40 portfolio?

That has been a hot topic for quite some time given the low yield environment. Many suggest tweaking up your equity exposure to the 70% level or so, if you have the risk tolerance. That was certainly covered in this post on the Horizons one ticket ETFs. Those portfolios employ U.S. Treasuries that help dampen the volatility of increasing equity exposure. Continue Reading…

Navigating Fixed Income Challenges with Flexibility

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By Brian Giuliano

Brandywine Global Investment Management, a specialist investment manager of Franklin Templeton

(Sponsor Content)

Flexibility and adaptability can work to an investor’s advantage in the challenging fixed income markets of 2021. Structural disinflationary trends are now clashing with cyclical inflationary forces in a global economy struggling to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. Add on interest rates at record lows, demographic pressures, heavy government debt levels, and widespread technological disruption throughout the global economy.

The market environment of low interest rates makes it difficult to generate income while preserving capital. As a result, many investors have taken on additional credit or interest rate risk to try to earn a more attractive income from fixed income assets.

But there are pitfalls to this approach. Without a counterweight to the extra portfolio risk, investors could be vulnerable to an increase in interest rates or a selloff in credit markets.

One option for investors is a multisector strategy with the flexibility to adapt quickly to changing markets. A strategy that’s able to capture opportunities when available but also play defense when market conditions call for it.

Global Income Optimiser strategy

The portfolio team behind the Franklin Brandywine Global Income Optimiser strategy are strong believers in flexibility, which means we try to adapt the income and risk exposures in a portfolio to the market environment. This approach does not have any structural, home country or sectoral biases. We aim to rotate the portfolio across what we believe are the best risk-adjusted return opportunities in the global fixed income universe.

Our goal is to generate high-yield-like returns with investment-grade-like volatility for investors. We want to maximize the income that can safely be earned in a given market environment.

The Franklin Brandywine strategy seeks returns from across the investment universe, including global investment grade and high yield credit, developed market sovereigns, structured credit and emerging market debt. Furthermore, sector rotation, duration management, quality rotation and security selection are employed to meet the strategy’s investment objective. Foreign currency is hedged primarily back to an investor’s base currency, such as the Canadian dollar; however, limited exposure may be used opportunistically to add alpha for a portfolio.

This strategy became available to retail investors in Canada on June 4, when Franklin Templeton introduced the Franklin Brandywine Global Income Optimiser Fund*. Globally, the strategy has a successful track record, dating back to its inception in 2013. In the U.S, a similar fund, to the degree allowed by Canadian regulations, is 5-star rated by Morningstar.** Brandywine Global is a specialist investment manager that was part of Franklin Templeton’s acquisition of asset manager Legg Mason in 2020.

Portfolio positioning for the reopening

Brandywine Global sees growth and inflation returning to the global economy this year. We increased spread duration late in the first quarter of 2020 and began reducing high quality government bond duration; so overall portfolio duration was roughly flat last spring. From last summer through winter, we materially reduced portfolio duration.

Now, the positioning of the strategy is for a short duration, cyclically-oriented portfolio of companies that have some pricing power, given inflationary pressures from the reopening trade. There’s a mix of U.S. and European names with a concentration in the BBB and BB space. The level of credit risk is largely investment grade over the long term; less than 5% of the portfolio is in CCC securities. High quality government bonds can help manage volatility. These and other ‘safe’ assets offer lots of ‘episodic value’ for the portfolio at times, especially during volatile markets, by being sources of alpha and acting as a counterweight to riskier holdings.

Capital protection is a top priority, and the Brandywine team will not reach for yield in this strategy.

Environmental, social, governance assessments

Also, Brandywine Global integrates ESG analysis into our comprehensive assessment of information risk and price risk with this strategy. The focus is on the material ESG issues that can impact a country’s economic growth, the business activities of a corporation, or the integrity of securitized collateral. Continue Reading…

Financial knowledge of Canada’s retirement system isn’t improving, study shows

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Financial knowledge about the Canadian retirement system fell from 2020 to 2021, says the Retirement Savings Institute.

The financial literacy of average Canadians is still low when it comes to understanding our Retirement system, says a survey being released Tuesday. The third edition of the Retirement Savings Institute (RSI) surveyed 3,002 Canadians aged 35 to 54 and found the overall RSI index measuring knowledge of the retirement income system slipped from 38% in 2020 to 37% in 2021. This, it says, is “still showing a significant lack of knowledge among Canadians.”

The RSI Index is the share (stated as a percentage) of correct answers to  29 questions posed in the survey.

The best-understood subjects continue to be CPP/QPP and RRSPs/TFSAs. Canadians still find it tougher to understand employer sponsored pension plans and Old Age Security, where the average respondents “didn’t know” the answer to half the questions.

In a backgrounder, the RSI team at HEC Montreal [a business school] says the scientific literature in several countries has established a link between general financial literacy and preparation for Retirement. However, “the level  of general financial literacy among Canadians is fairly low, although comparable to what is observed elsewhere in industrialized countries.” It also finds knowlege about narrower topics like taxes to be “rather limited.”

Starting in 2018, the RSI started to measure on an annual basis the financial literacy of Canadians in their “years of strong asset accumulation in preparation for retirement.” Those younger than 35 tend to have “other concerns and financial priorities than retirement,” the RSI says.

Knowledge rises with education and income, and as retirement nears

Not surprisingly, the closer to Retirement age one is, the more knowledgeable of related financial matters we tend to become. The RSI score was 33.9% for the youngest in the survey aged 35 to 39, rising to 36.6% for the 40 to 44 cohort, then to 37.8% for the 45-49 group, and a high of 39.5% for those 50 to 54.

Also as one would expect, the more schooling the higher the score: those with high school or less had an RSI score of 31.5%, while those with college or equivalent scored 36.9%, and those with a Bachelor’s degree or higher scored on average 45.3%. Similarly, the higher the household income, the better knowledge. Thus, those with household income of $30,000 or less scored just 26.1%, compared to $60,000 to $90,000 families scoring 37.3% and at the highest, families making $120,000 or more scored 45.6%.

Equally unsurprising is the fact that higher earners are more knowledgeable about RRSPs and TFSAs, especially when it comes to contribution room and withdrawal rules. They are less knowledgeable about investment returns in those vehicles, and score a low 12.6% on penalties for over contributions and other rules related to taxes.

Many confused about Employer Pensions

Employer pension plans seems to be an issue. At all ages, Canadians found it difficult to know the difference between Defined Benefit (DB) and Defined Contribution (DC) pension plans. In particular, they tend to be confused about which one reduces longevity risk (DB) and which depends on returns generated by financial markets (DC). Low-income individuals are even less knowledgeable.

Workers who are contributing employer pension plans had significantly higher scores (41%) than those who were not enrolled in such plans (32.9%).

The older and richer understand CPP/QPP better

Also as you’d expect, older people and more well-off people understand the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) or the Quebec Pension Plan (QPP) better. As the chart below illustrates, most Canadians are now well aware that taking early CPP/QPP benefits results in lower monthly benefits (shown in the “Penalty” bar), but there is still a lot of confusion about whether CPP/QPP recipients can collect benefits while still working (only 25% correctly answer this.)

Most Canadians know there is a penalty for taking CPP/QPP benefits early but there is much confusion about collecting while still working.

Older people also know OAS and GIS better. As the chart below shows, most people know you have to be at least 65 years old to receive OAS, but knowledge about technical matters like the OAS clawback, the Guaranteed Income Supplement to the OAS, and taxation of these benefits tends to be much scantier.

Basic OAS timing seems well understood but many are murky when it comes to clawbacks and eligibility and taxation of GIS benefits.

Mortgages well understood, bonds and debt not so much

When it comes to major financial products, Canadians are quite knowledgeable about compound interest, but as less so about debt doubling and quite ill-informed about Bonds, as the chart below indicates. ( Continue Reading…

Renting vs Buying Property while living abroad: Which is best for Financial Independence?

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By Emily Roberts

For the Financial Independence Hub

Financial independence means different things to different people. It has an impact on your life planning and whether renting is preferred over buying property. If you’re planning to go abroad and live elsewhere like continental Europe, Eastern Europe, or south-east Asia, then plans may be different again.

In this article, we look at whether renting is better than buying when you’re financially independent (or working towards it).

What Does Financial Independence mean to You?

Financial independence is possible at various levels. People refer to it by different names including Barista FIRE, CoastFIRE, FI, and others.

One approach is to reach a modest level of financial independence to provide a minimal income from investments, and to let them grow from their current level for a decade or longer while working an easier, low-paid job. Another approach is to wait until you have enough and then retire, but with the occasional freelance or consulting gig too.

Financial independence doesn’t necessarily mean retirement, which generally speaking refers to stopping working as a primary source of income. Different strokes for different folks.

Advantages of Renting

When still working, renting comes out of your paycheck and reduces what you can invest for future financial independence. Some people decide to live and work abroad to reduce their living expenses, to allow them to save faster.

Renting in the US

Americans can rent places Stateside but have to be careful of the long-term leases and associated fees along with any restrictions on tenants.

Depending on the city, renting has become quite expensive, causing some to look abroad.

Renting Abroad

Renting abroad can save you considerable money compared to back home.

For instance, PropertyGuru provides rooms for rent in Kuching, Malaysia. They have rooms for under $100 a month, studios for greater privacy, and larger multi-bedroom apartments in newly constructed buildings too. Their team can locate suitable rental accommodation close to major facilities and transport links, so whether you’re working there, planning to retire, or just on vacation, they can find something suitable.

Advantages of Buying

Purchasing real estate is something that appeals to many people. When they don’t like the idea of not owning where they live, then they lean far more towards buying.

Owning property domestically is possible when the prices are affordable. Unfortunately, cities with the most jobs typically also enjoy robust real estate markets with high prices to match. Sinking most of the next egg into a home makes retirement difficult. The ongoing ownership costs aren’t cheap either. Continue Reading…