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Is Now a Bad Time to buy Bonds? Yes, and Here’s Why

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We think Now is a bad time to Buy Bonds … Here’s Why

Recently a friend asked, “Pat, I see that several prominent Canadian investor advisors recently wrote articles that said it’s a bad time to buy bonds right now. Do you agree?”

He was surprised when I told him I haven’t bought any bonds for myself since the 1990s. I haven’t bought any for our Portfolio Management clients in the last couple of decades, except on client request.

In the 1990s, I used to buy “strip bonds” for myself and my clients, as RRSP investments. This was the Golden Age of bond investing. Back then, high-quality bonds yielded almost as much, pre-tax, as the historical returns on stocks. In addition, they were more stable than stocks and provided fixed income that simplified financial planning.

Bonds have tax disadvantages, of course. But you can neutralize those disadvantages by holding your bonds in RRSPs and other registered plans.

The big difference back then was that bond yields and interest rates were much higher than usual. That’s because we were still coming out of (or “cleaning up after,” you might say) the inflationary bulge of the 1970s and 1980s.

In the 1980s, government policies pushed up interest rates and took other measures to hobble inflation, and it worked. But interest rates stayed high for a long time after the government policies broke the back of inflation: kind of like finishing the antibiotic prescription after the infection goes away.

Long-time readers know my general view on the stocks-versus-bonds dilemma. When interest rates are as low as they have been in recent decades, high-quality stocks on the whole are vastly superior to bonds. However, you have to understand the differences between the two. For one thing, stocks are more volatile than bonds. But volatility and safety are two different things.

Volatility refers to sharp price fluctuations, often due to short-term uncertainty and the randomness of short-term market movements. Safety refers to the risk of permanent loss.

Bonds improve portfolio stability but cut investment returns

You might say that what you get from bonds is the opposite of what you get from the stock market.

Inflation near-automatically reduces the purchasing power of bonds. Inflation can also hurt the returns you make in the stock market, of course. However, companies you invest in can take steps to cut the costs of inflation. They can pass on cost increases to their customers. They can introduce new processes and equipment to improve productivity and cut their costs. Continue Reading…

A deadline seniors don’t want to miss: RRSP-to-RRIF conversions

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My latest column looks at a topic of high importance for near-retirees or already retired folk who have reached their early 70s: the requirement to convert an RRSP to a Registered Retirement Income Fund (RRIF) and/or annuitize.. You can find the full column by clicking on the highlighted text here:  How to cope with the RRSP-to-RRIF deadline in your early 70s.

As the column mentions, this deadline is rapidly approaching for my wife and me.

Here’s how Matthew Ardrey, senior wealth advisor at Toronto-based Tridelta Financial, sees the big picture on RRSP-to-RRIF conversions: “By the year in which one turns 72, the government mandates that the taxpayer convert their RRSP to a RRIF and draw out at least the minimum payment. The minimum payment is calculated by the value of the RRIF on January 1st multiplied by a percentage rate that is tied to the taxpayer’s age. Each year older they get, the higher that percentage becomes.”

Currently, at age 72 (the latest that you can receive the first RRIF payment), the minimum withdrawal is a modest 5.28% of the market value of your RRIF assets. By age 95, this increases to 20% of the market value, says Rona Birenbaum, founder of Caring for Clients.

You need to take the RRSP to RRIF deadline seriously: you must convert by December 31st of the calendar year in which you turn 71. What if you miss it? Then, Birenbaum cautions, 100% of your RRSP becomes taxable income in that year, which will often push you into the highest marginal tax rate. Needless to say, for those with hefty RRSPs, losing almost half of it in a single tax year would be disastrous.

There is of course the option of using your RRSP to purchase an annuity, but Birenbaum observes that most clients opt for the greater flexibility of the RRIF.

Given the normal human inclination to procrastinate, most near-retirees will probably want to keep their RRSPs going until the bitter end and aim for this “latest” deadline for conversion. However, technically, Birenbaum says you can open a RRIF much earlier than is mandated. “There is no earliest age, though it’s rarely beneficial to open a RRIF during your working years.”

Note that when RRIF income is received, it’s taxed as fully taxable income, Ardrey says, “There is no preferential treatment for this income, like there would be for capital gains or Canadian dividends. Though this income is a cornerstone for many Canadians, it can also cause tax complications that were not there

While similar in several respects Birenbaum notes some important differences between RRSPs and RRIFs. Both are tax-sheltered vehicles, can hold the same investments, and withdrawals are fully taxable as income. However, RRSP contributions are tax-deductible, while you can’t contribute to a RRIF (so there are no tax deductions.)

RRSPs don’t have any mandated withdrawals, whereas RRIFs have mandated annual withdrawals, starting in the calendar year after you open the account. With RRSPs, there are no minimum withdrawals, although they are permitted: your only option is to request a one-time lump sum withdrawal (and pay tax on it at various rates depending on the amount you wish to withdraw).

RRIFs have mandated annual minimum withdrawals, which rise steadily over time. Minimums are outlined on this website. Unlike an RRSP, a RRIF lets you automate withdrawals for ease of cash flow management (monthly, quarterly, annually etc.)

Unless the taxpayer requests it, there are no withholding taxes on RRIF minimums. A second complication is that this extra income from the RRIF can also trigger clawbacks of Old Age Security (OAS) benefits. If income exceeds $90,997, OAS payments will be clawed back by $0.15 for every dollar over this amount until they reach zero, Ardrey warns.

Pension splitting and using your spouse’s age

Fortunately, there are ways to minimize these possible tax consequences. If you are one half of couple, you can benefit from a form of pension income splitting: RRIF income can be split with a spouse on their tax returns, providing the taxpayer is over the age of 65. “Even if incomes are in a situation where a RRIF income split would not seem logical, a split of $2,000 can provide a pension tax credit for the spouse. This could also be the difference between being impacted by the OAS clawback or not.”

Another trick is basing your minimum RRIF payment on your spouse’s age. This works when you have a younger spouse/ By doing this, the taxpayer gets their younger partner’s age percentage applied to their RRIF minimum payment.

The full MoneySense columns goes into the mechanics of withholding taxes and what happens upon death.

The Mechanics of Conversion

Birenbaum says you can usually expect your financial institution to reach out to you to remind you before the deadline. There will be paperwork to file at the institution where you’d like to hold the RRIF, although it’s not required that the RRIF be at the same place your RRSP is held. Your existing RRSP investment holdings can be simply transferred to your new RRIF account. The initial paperwork will ask you to set your desired payment schedule (day of month and payment frequency), to choose RRIF minimums based on your age or that of your younger spouse.

  

Introducing Wilbur: The Free Budgeting App that puts money in your Pocket

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By Mike Rodenburgh

Special to Financial Independence Hub

In the realm of personal finance, understanding where your money goes is essential for financial success. Tracking expenses provides valuable insights into spending habits and empowers individuals to align their finances with their goals. Whether you’re a seasoned budgeter or just starting your financial journey, mastering expense management is key.

Most people have multiple financial institutions, credit cards, store cards, etc., making expense tracking complicated. It’s also easy to lose track of automatic subscriptions that renew on a monthly basis, like that local gym you joined but have got out of the habit of using.

Luckily, there are tools available to simplify our ever-increasing complex financial lives.  For many years Mint was a popular budgeting tool owned by Intuit. But as of March 23, 2024, Mint is being decommissioned, leaving many people searching for a free replacement.

One tool that has recently launched as a replacement for Mint in Canada is Wilbur, a free budgeting app that automatically connects to your bank account.   In addition, Wilbur allows people (at no obligation) to answer surveys for a little extra side cash.

 

The personal finance experts at Wilbur have put together the following series of tips to help people get a handle on their finances.

1.) Assess Your Accounts

Begin by reviewing your financial accounts, including bank statements and credit card transactions. Take note of recurring expenses and identify patterns in your spending. Understanding your financial habits lays the groundwork for effective expense tracking. Wilbur has a handy feature in that it automatically identifies those recurring subscriptions, giving you the necessarily information to plan for the payment or simply cancel it to save money!

2.) Categorize Your Expenses

Organize your expenses into categories to gain clarity on your spending habits. Categories may include essentials like housing and utilities, as well as discretionary spending on entertainment and dining out. Utilize features in apps like Wilbur to automatically categorize transactions and simplify the process.

3.) Craft Your Budget with Wilbur

Once you’ve categorized your expenses, create a budget that reflects your financial priorities. Allocate funds for necessities, wants, and savings/debt repayment using the 50/30/20 budgeting method. Use the budgeting app to track expenses and set budgeting goals for each expense category.

4.) Consider a Side Gig

If you find you’re not making ends meet, find a side hustle.  A survey by H&R Block in March 2023 found that 28% of Canadians had some kind of side gig. Side hustles are found everywhere, even in the Wilbur budgeting app. Wilbur offers the opportunity to earn between $1 and $5 by answering a survey, simply by clicking a link from within the app. It’s a convenient way to monetize a spare 10 minutes of your day. Clearly not going to get rich off it, but in today’s inflationary times, every little bit counts. Continue Reading…

Passive Investing with ETFs: Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater

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Image courtesy Outcome/EpicTop10

By Noah Solomon

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Barbarians at the Gate

The dramatic increase in the popularity of ETFs [Exchange Traded Funds] represents one of the biggest changes in financial markets over the past three decades. The tremendous growth of ETFs has come largely at the expense of actively managed mutual funds. Investors are increasingly shunning the latter in favour of the former. I will attempt to shed some light on whether this shift is justified from a performance perspective.

The Trillion Dollar Question

The vast majority of ETF assets are passive vehicles. The underlying portfolios of these securities are constructed to mimic a given index, such as the S&P 500 or the TSX Composite. In contrast, most mutual funds are actively managed, whereby portfolio managers and securities analysts conduct extensive research to overweight stocks they believe will outperform while underweighting those they believe will be laggards to outperform their benchmarks. Relatedly, the costs of running actively managed funds are higher than those associated with passive ETFs. As such, the former tend to charge higher management fees.

Logically speaking, active managers’ higher fees should not necessarily be an issue. To the extent that they are capable of more than offsetting the negative impact of their higher fees with higher returns, their investors are better off on a net basis. As such, the trillion-dollar question is whether active managers’ skill is sufficient to justify their higher fees. If this is indeed the case, it follows that the shift away from active management into passive ETFs is ill-founded. Similarly, if active managers have failed to outperform, then the massive growth of ETF assets can be simply explained as investors following the money.

Active Management: The Author of its own Fate

By and large, active management has failed to live up to its promise. Specifically, most active managers have underperformed their benchmarks over both the medium and long-term.

S&P Global’s most recent SPIVA (S&P Index vs. Active) Canada Scorecard, which covers the period ending June 30, 2022, clearly illustrates that the vast majority of active managers have struggled to add value.

Percentage of Funds Underperforming their Benchmarks

As the above table illustrates, the inability of active management to add value over the past 10 years has been nothing short of pervasive. There is not one category in which the majority of active managers did not underperform their respective benchmarks. Importantly, this observation holds true over one-, three-, five-, and ten-year periods.

Outrunning a Bear

To be fair, active management is not alone in its underperformance. While the majority of managers have underperformed, any index-tracking ETF is 100% guaranteed to do so for the simple reason that their returns should be equal to those of their benchmarks less management fees, administrative costs, and trading commissions. Continue Reading…

The Ultimate Guide to Podcast Promotion: Tasks, Timelines, and Success Strategies

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Image courtesy Canada’s Podcast/unsplash royalty free

By Philip Bliss

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Launching a podcast is an exciting endeavor, but the real challenge lies in promoting it effectively to build a loyal audience. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll break down the essential tasks, timelines, and strategies to help you successfully promote your podcast.

  1. Pre-Launch Phase (4-6 weeks before launch):

Tasks:

  • Define your target audience: Clearly identify who your podcast is for to tailor your promotional efforts effectively.
  • Craft a compelling trailer: Create a teaser episode or trailer that highlights the value of your podcast and sparks interest.
  • Design eye-catching cover art: Invest time in creating visually appealing podcast cover art that reflects your brand and attracts potential listeners.
  • Develop a content calendar: Plan your initial episodes and create a schedule for consistency.

Timeline:

  • Week 1: Define target audience and create a content calendar.
  • Week 2: Craft a compelling trailer and design cover art.
  • Week 3-4: Set up social media profiles and teaser campaigns.
  1. Launch Phase (Week of launch):

Tasks:

  • Submit to podcast directories: Ensure your podcast is available on major platforms such as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Google Podcasts.
  • Utilize a launch strategy: Leverage social media, email newsletters, and your website to create anticipation and drive initial downloads.
  • Encourage listener reviews: Ask friends, family, and early listeners to leave positive reviews to boost credibility.

Timeline:

  • Day 1: Submit to podcast directories and launch teaser campaigns.
  • Week 1: Implement launch strategy on social media and encourage reviews.
  1. Post-Launch Phase (Ongoing):

Tasks:

  • Consistent content creation: Stick to your content calendar to maintain a regular release schedule.
  • Engage with your audience: Respond to listener feedback, comments, and questions on social media and through email.
  • Collaborate with other podcasters: Guest appearances and cross-promotions can expand your reach.
  • Utilize social media: Regularly share engaging content, clips, and updates to keep your audience connected.

Timeline:

  • Ongoing: Stick to your content calendar, engage with the audience, and actively collaborate. Continue Reading…