Tag Archives: gold

How did the Pandemic Portfolio hold up?

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By Dale Roberts, cutthecrapinvesting

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

I was the first investment blogger to ‘jump on’ the investment risks that might be created by the coronavirus. In fact, when I first penned on the subject in February of 2020, the virus was not then known as COVID-19. And we were not yet in a global pandemic. New cases were just starting to move around the globe, and most felt that the strange new coronavirus would be contained. Today, I can’t claim that I knew it would result in the first modern pandemic. But I did address the risk, and I did offer some thoughts on how an investor might prepare, if they needed to protect their wealth. Let’s have a look, how did the pandemic portfolio perform?

Here’s the original post from February of 2020.

How to prepare your portfolio for the coronavirus outbreak.

Do nothing, stay the course

That almost goes without saying. You don’t fix a ship in a hurricane offers our friends at Mawer Investments. If you have a solid investment plan, and you are investing within your risk tolerance level —

Image by S K from Pixabay

De-risk your portfolio

This suggestion is controversial to some, but to me it is common sense. Fear was mounting in February of 2020, and the stock markets were offering a minor hissy fit. It is safe to say that most investors are not safe. They are investing outside of their risk tolerance level. These market scares offer the opportunity to discover that you are investing outside of your comfort level.

The timing from February of 2020 to de-risk was still quite favourable.

That would have allowed an investor to move to their risk tolerance level before the market corrected by nearly 35%. While that move to a lower risk portfolio might create lesser returns over time, it can remove the greater risk of permanent losses. Investors are known to too-often sell out in fear near the bottom of the market declines. Of course that’s the complete opposite of – buy low and sell high.

And a typical balanced portfolio would have delivered about 21% to 22% to date, from February of 2020. That’s a greater return compared to the Canadian stock market from that date.

Pandemic portfolio construction

I had suggested that investors consider two of the greater risk-off assets. Risk-off will refer to the defensive investments that protect your portfolio. And typically, investors run to these assets in times of trouble. That influx of dollars can drive up prices.

Gold is known as a safe haven asset.

Gold was the lead image on the original post on how to prepare your portfolio for the pandemic. The precious metal did shine in the pandemic, when needed.

I had suggested that investors consider U.S. long term treasuries. They punch above their weight as risk mangers (keeping an eye on those unruly stock markets.

You’ll find those long term treasuries in the Permanent Portfolio post.

And mostly, at the core is a sensible and well-balanced portfolio. From the original post …

. the best investment strategy is to diversify across geographic locations, asset classes and currencies to protect against the unknowns.

Ray Dalio

That said, one of the beautiful all-in-one balanced asset allocation ETF portfolios would have performed wonderfully. It’s the same story if you held a balanced ETF portfolio.

If an investor had shaded in some gold and long term treasuries, they would have experienced some greater returns, and would have been treated to better risk-adjusted returns.

The pandemic portfolio performance

For demonstration purposes I used the asset allocation offered on the ETF Portfolio page, for a balanced model. You certainly could have (successfully) held a conservative, balanced growth or all-equity model through the pandemic. But for those with a balanced model that holds some risk-off assets, the inclusion of gold and treasuries would have helped the cause. Continue Reading…

Gold still shines but watch China

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Financial advisors should ensure that gold comprises 20% of their clients’ portfolios to improve their return and lower volatility, Nick Barisheff, CEO of BMG Group Inc. in Markham told Wealth Professional.

“From an advisor’s point of view, that’s the easiest thing to do: just add some gold to your client’s portfolio – without getting into all the complexity of a currency or anything else,” he said. “It’s that simple. That’s as far as they need to go. Everything else gets very complicated.”

Barisheff was reacting to recent commentary that gold’s place in the investment world was being eclipsed by Bitcoin. He noted that for something to be an effective currency, it needs to store wealth as well as be a medium of exchange – and Bitcoin doesn’t accomplish that.

“You can’t conceive of doing a long-term bond with Bitcoin because the volatility in the fluctuation is so huge,” he said, “and then there’s really nothing backing it.”

While Bitcoin’s value is increasing, Barisheff attributed that to the hype surrounding it rather than any solid justification for it.

The Bank of International Settlements, which he noted sets the rules for all central and commercial banks, has authorized gold as a zero-risk monetary asset equal to U.S Treasuries.

“They didn’t say that about Bitcoin,” he added.

China and Russia increasing their holdings of Gold

The other thing that Barisheff said to watch for in the world of gold is the fact that the world’s central banks hold about 30,000 tonnes of gold – and the central banks of China and Russia, as well as other countries, are increasing their holdings. China has said it has 1,600 tonnes of gold, but he said some estimate that its sovereign wealth fund, which doesn’t have to report its gold holdings, may have 5,000 to 6,000 tonnes of gold.

“They will move it to the central bank when they feel they’ve bought enough gold,” he said. “Their officials have publicly stated that their objective is to have more gold than the U.S. and the U.S. has 8,000 tones, so China’s goal is to have 10,000 tonnes. So, they’re not going to announce that until they’ve finished buying the gold because, when they do, the price will go ballistic, and it’s in China’s best interest for the price to stay down for the time-being.”

Once that happens, he noted that there will be questions about where they got that gold. Continue Reading…

Retired Money: how to prepare for “Transitory for Longer’ inflation

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As oxymorons go, you have to love the phrase “Transitory for Longer,” which comes up in my latest MoneySense Retired Money column. It looks at inflation, which of course is in the news virtually every day this summer, and one reason why stock markets are starting to weaken again (along with renewed Covid fears). You can find the full MoneySense column by clicking on the following headline: How might Inflation impact your Retirement plans?

As with trying to divine short-term moves in stocks or interest rates, I view predicting inflation — whether near-term, medium-term or longer-term — as somewhat futile. So the column preaches much the same as it would about positioning portfolios for stock declines or rises in interest rates: broad diversification of asset classes.

Asset Allocation for all Seasons

The ever useful four asset classes of Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio I find may be a good initial mix of assets to prepare for all possibilities: stocks for prosperity, bonds for deflation, cash for depression/recession and gold for inflation. Browne, who died in 2006,  famously allocated 25% to each.

That’s a good place to start, although as I point out in the column, many might add Real Estate/REITs and make it a five-way split each of 20%. Some suggest 10% in gold (both bullion ETFs and gold mining stock ETFs), which might be expanded to include other precious metals like silver, platinum and palladium. Some might add to this a 5% position in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which some view as “digital gold.”

To the extent stock markets and interest rates will forever fluctuate over the course of a retirement, such a diversified approach could help you sleep at night, as some asset classes zig as others zag. Seldom will all these assets soar at once, but hopefully it will be just as rare for all to plunge at once.

Annuities and new “Tontine” approaches

Another approach to this problem is not so much Asset Allocation but what finance professor Moshe Milevsky has dubbed “Product Allocation.” Continue Reading…

Gold still trusted over Bitcoin, but gap is closing

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A report by LendEDU finds Bitcoin is making a lot of headway with investors over Gold. 56% said Bitcoin is a better investment to maximize profits, versus just 33% for gold. However, they still see gold as a better store of value against inflation, with 50% answering gold  (including 67% over the age of 54), and 39% saying bitcoin.

On behalf of New Jersey-based LendEDU, research firm Pollfish surveyed 1,000 Americans on April 21st to see how they would deploy an initial US$50,000 to build a retirement nest egg, and found gold only had a slight edge: 45% versus 42% for bitcoin. However, if the goal of the $50,000 investment is strictly to maximize profits, 49% specified bitcoin, versus just 37% for gold.

LendEDU Director of Communications Mike Brown says Bitcoin is up roughly 68,189,500% since its start in 2009, while gold is up 105% over the same period.

“Gold is proven as a reliable investment and safe haven against market volatility and inflation, which is especially relevant in 2021. Bitcoin is becoming a competitor for just the same thing, although its wild price fluctuations are not for the faint-hearted and attract a younger, more aggressive investor … We found gold is still trusted for more cautious investing, especially amongst older Americans, but bitcoin is closing that gap and is preferred for speculative investing, especially with the younger crowd.”

LendEDU’s Mike Brown

Brown says the survey results were “none too surprising; bitcoin has periods of monumental gain that make it a salivating buy for aggressive investors trying to make a profit. But it also has periods of monumental loss and faces constant regulatory and institutional scrutiny that make it a questionable buy if your first investment priority is protecting the money you already have.”

Gold, on the other hand, doesn’t have eye-popping surges like bitcoin but is safe and has historically delivered steady profits to the patient investor looking for a financial safe haven.

The survey reveals a younger bias towards bitcoin and an older population favoring gold. Thus, 56% of those between the ages of 18 and 24 thought bitcoin was the better speculative asset, while 29% thought gold was. The percentages were 29% and 55%, respectively, for poll participants over 54.

Similarly, 42% of the 18 – 24 cohort thought bitcoin was a better store of value to protect against inflation, while 44% said gold. For the over 54 cohort, those percentages were 16% and 67%, respectively.

Brown found the 35-44 age group surprising as they were quite bullish on bitcoin in all four questions and broke with the normal trend that had older respondents favoring gold and younger ones opting for bitcoin. “This could be due to this demographic getting in on bitcoin in the extremely early stages, around 2010 when they were in their mid-twenties or early-thirties.”

When asked if they have invested in bitcoin or gold recently amid concerns about inflation, 15% had invested in gold, 31% in bitcoin, 15% in both, and 36% in neither.

For retirement investing, gold still holds a dwindling edge

In another part of the survey, poll participants were given four increasing monetary values and asked if they would rather invest each value in either bitcoin or gold to build a retirement nest egg that they couldn’t touch until retirement. In nearly every scenario, gold was the preferred retirement investment choice over bitcoin. Only when $1,000 was the starting amount did more respondents (47%) want to invest in bitcoin over gold (43%).

But as the starting amount went up, so too did the risk, which is likely why respondents switched over to the less-risky, less-volatile gold to start building their retirement nest eggs as the questions progressed. As Brown notes, “Retirement accounts should be stable, and you’ll lose a lot less sleep investing $50,000 in gold instead of $50,000 in bitcoin.”

Even so, no matter the initial investment amount, most age groups preferred building their retirement nest egg through bitcoin rather than gold. For example, 46% of the 45-54 cohort wanted to invest $50,000 in bitcoin compared to 41% who said gold. Continue Reading…

The Permanent Portfolio

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By Dale Roberts

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

The traditional balanced portfolio is built for the current economic environment. It is built upon the premise, or guess, that we will remain in a disinflationary environment. It is all that today’s investor has known. In a disinflationary environment US and Canadian stocks and other developed markets perform well. US and Canadian bonds perform well. As you will have noticed, if you have a sensible balanced portfolio or even a portfolio that is heavily weighted to stocks – you’ve done very well. But things could change. The economic conditions could change. For that possibility you might consider a portfolio that is built for any economic condition – the Permanent Portfolio.

The portfolio blind spot

I “got” the portfolio blind spot framing from a Canadian financial planner. The planner stated that for them, inflation was a blind spot. It was not something that the planner understood or knew how to address.

So if many portfolio managers and financial planners don’t consider serious inflation or the possibility for a change in economic conditions (economic regimes) it’s not surprising that the everyday retail investor would not ‘get it’.

And by the way, I am told that advisors and planners are not trained ‘on this.’ They are not trained to protect your wealth in all economic conditions. The word “stagflation” does not show up in their training materials.

And for the record, here are the economic possibilities and what works best in each regime. The chart is courtesy of ReSolve Asset Management.

When you have a blind spot you could get side swiped.

As I detailed in the lost decade for US stocks, there are periods (long periods) when stocks simply don’t work. They deliver no returns, or no real returns (when we factor in inflation) for extended periods – even a decade or more.

For example, US stocks delivered no real returns for a 15 year period from 1968 through 1982. You can thank inflation for that.

Each stock market is different (that is US vs Canada vs other International) but that trend and fact remains. Stocks don’t always work.

All positive US stock gains over the last 130 years have occurred in disinflationary periods.

Not only that, the traditional balanced portfolio can also deliver no real returns for extended periods. The chart is for US stocks and bonds, but the conditions would not change change materially when we substitute or add in other developed market stocks and bonds.

ReSolve Asset Management

Where stock diversification would have helped (marginally) is in the early 2000’s period. Canadian and International developed markets did not suffer to the same degree, as did US stocks in the dotcom crash. It was the US stock market that suffered from greater euphoria and greater over-valuation “issues”. You mean, like today? You might ask.

So how do you build a simple portfolio to protect and prosper through all economic conditions?

The Permanent Portfolio

There are four economic conditions that can exist. The economy can grow or the economy can shrink – economic contraction. We can have inflation and we can have deflation.

And yes we can have periods of stagnation or muted movements for each of the above.

With inflation prices are increasing and so is your cost of living.

With deflation prices are falling and the cost of living is decreasing.

Putting it all together, we can have four quadrants or economic conditions.

  • Inflation in a period of economic growth.
  • Inflation in a period of economic contraction.
  • Deflation in a period of economic growth.
  • Deflation in a period of economic contraction.

Have another look that chart from ReSolve and you’ll see the economic conditions of the last 120 years and more.

Something is always working

The Permanent Portfolio is designed to hold assets that will perform in each economic environment. Something is always working. Continue Reading…