Tag Archives: investing

A higher dividend yield isn’t always better: How to spot the good from the bad to avoid this costly mistake.

is higher yield dividend better

Investors interested in dividends should only buy the highest-yielding Canadian dividend stocks if they meet these criteria — and don’t have these risk factors

Dividend yield is the percentage you get when you divide a company’s current yearly payment by its share price.

The best of the highest-yielding Canadian dividend stocks have a history of success

Follow our Successful Investor philosophy over long periods and we think you’ll likely achieve better-than-average investing results.

Our first rule tells you to buy high-quality, mostly dividend-paying stocks. These stocks have generally been succeeding in business for a decade or more, perhaps much longer. But in any case, they have shown that they have a durable business concept. They can wilt in economic and stock-market downturns, like any stock. But most thrive anew when the good times return, as they inevitably do.

Over long periods, you’ll probably find that a third of your stocks do about as well as you hoped, a third do better, and a third do worse. This is partly due to that random element in stock pricing that we’ve often mentioned. It also grows out of the proverbial “wisdom of the crowd.” The market makes pricing mistakes and continually reverses itself. But the collective opinion of all individuals buying and selling in the market eventually beats any single expert opinion.

Canadian dividend stocks and the dividend tax credit

Canadian taxpayers who hold Canadian dividend stocks get a special bonus. Their dividends can be eligible for the dividend tax credit in Canada. This dividend tax credit — which is available on dividends paid on Canadian stocks held outside of an RRSP, RRIF or TFSA — will cut your effective tax rate.

That means dividend income will be taxed at a lower rate than the same amount of interest income. Investors in the highest tax bracket pay tax of around 29% on dividends, compared to 50% on interest income. At the same time, investors in the highest tax bracket pay tax on capital gains at a rate of about 25%.

The Canadian dividend tax credit is actually split between two tax credits. One is a provincial dividend tax credit and the other is a federal dividend tax credit. The provincial tax credit varies depending on where you live in Canada.

A couple of decades ago, you could assume that dividends would supply up to about one-third of the stock market’s total return. Dividend yields are generally lower today than they were a few years ago, but it’s still safe to assume that dividends will continue to supply perhaps a third of the market’s total return over the next few decades. Continue Reading…

When will this be over, How deep will it go, and How will it end?

By Noah Solomon

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Against a backdrop of sky-high inflation, rising rates, and growing recession concerns, stocks have had a dismal year, with technology and unprofitable growth companies experiencing particularly severe losses.

Given the carnage in global markets, investors are pondering the following three questions:

  1. How long will the carnage last?
  2. How much more will equities fall before hitting bottom?
  3. What might it take for equity fortunes to turn?

In my commentary below, I address these questions from a historical perspective.

The current Bear Market: Fairly Average by Historical Standards

To begin, I analyzed all peak-tough declines of more than 15% in the S&P 500 Index since 1950, which are listed in the following table:

 

 

The average length of all 15%+ declines is 310.9 days. Taking the recent peak on January 3, the current bear market clocks in at 270 days as of the end of September. The time is at hand when the current decline will have become average from a historical standpoint. In terms of magnitude, the average decline has been 28.7%. As is the case with duration, we are near the point at which the current decline in prices can be construed as garden variety, with the S&P 500 Index down 24.3% from its early January peak through September 30.

Although historical averages are a useful guidepost for contextualizing where the current decline in stocks stands, they must nonetheless be taken with a large grain of salt. Of the 17 declines in the S&P 500 index since 1950, 14 have been at least 5% less or 5% more severe than the average decline of -28.7%, and five of them have fallen outside of the +/- 10% band of the average. There is no guarantee that markets will continue to decline until they match the historical average. Similarly, it is entirely possible that the current decline will eventually exceed the historical norm (perhaps meaningfully so).

Every bear market is unique in its own way. They may share certain commonalities but none of them are exactly alike. They differ either in terms of their causes, their macroeconomic environments, or the accompanying fiscal and monetary responses. Accordingly, we further scrutinized the data to ascertain whether there are any factors that can be associated with worse than run of the mill bear markets.

One Hell summons another

We found that past bear market patterns can be well-summarized by the Latin expression “abyssus abyssum invocat,” which means “one hell summons another.” Historically, once stocks have already suffered precipitous declines, they have tended to continue falling over the short term. Of the eight losses that have breached the -25% threshold, the average peak-trough loss was 39.1%. Alternately stated, during times when stocks declined by at least 25%, the panic train went into high gear, with stocks declining a further 14.1% on average.

Beware the “R” Word

Bear markets that have been accompanied by recessions have tended to be more vicious than their non-recession counterparts. Of the 17 declines in the S&P 500 Index of at least 15%, nine have been accompanied by recessions. The average length of these nine episodes is 427.8, which clocks in at a full 116 days longer than the average for all 17 observations. Continue Reading…

Canadian Financial Summit 2022 (Virtual)

This week a veritable who’s who of Canadian financial personalities and personal finance bloggers will be featured at the 2022 (and virtual) edition of the Canadian Financial Summit, starting this Wednesday. Hub readers will recognize several guest bloggers, including (pictured above) Robb Engen of Boomer & Echo; Bob Lai of Tawcan; Kyle Prevost of Million Dollar Journey and MoneySense; myself; as well as well-known media commentators like Robb Carrick of the Globe & Mail, Peter Hodgson of the Financial Post, Fred Vettese of the G&M, financial planner Ed Rempel and many more. There will also be MoneySense colleagues Dale Roberts (of Cutthecrapinvesting) and MoneySense executive editor Lisa Hannam

The online summit runs from Wed., Oct. 12 to Saturday, Oct. 15th, 2022.

To register, click on the home page here.

Here are just some of the topics that will be covered:

  • How to plan your own retirement at any age
  • How to save money on taxes by optimizing your RRSP to RRIF transition
  • What cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin actually are – and if you should be investing in them
  • How to maximize your Canadian Child Benefit (CCB)
  • How to efficiently transition your investing nest egg to a steady stream of retirement income
  • What Canadian real estate investments looks like in 2022
  • How to deal with inflation on your bills and in your investment portfolio
  • How to avoid crippling fees and terrible advice
  • When to take your OAS and CPP
  • How to buy your own pension – income for life!
  • Why Canadian dividend stocks might be the right fit for you
  • How to use your housing equity to maximize your retirement lifestyle

Here’s what MillionDollarJourney had to say about the conference:

I’m proud to say that MDJ’s own Kyle Prevost is co-hosting the event alongside MDJ writers Kornel Szrejber and Dale Roberts – so I can speak firsthand to the quality of the product!

One thing I always appreciate about this Summit each fall is that it is produced by Canadians – for Canadians.  Too much of the money-related content we see is American-based in nature – but you won’t have to translate any talk about 401Ks or American private health insurance at this event!

Together, the roster of All Star Speakers have authored more than 100 personal finance books, hosted 1,000+ podcast episodes, written 20,000+ blog posts and newspaper columns, and have been featured in thousands of media articles and interviews from every news and financial publication in Canada.  

Needless to say – you will not find this elite group in one place anywhere else!

And it’s free!

Here’s a sampling of the event’s FAQ:

Is the Canadian Financial Summit really free?

Yes. The videos are completely free to view for 48 hours. After that you need the any-time, anywhere All Access Pass.

What’s the catch?

There. Is. No. Catch.  We believe you’ll think the information presented by our 35+ Canadian experts is so solid, so actionable, so lacking in fluff and sales jargon – that we think you’ll pay for it after already seeing it for free.

How do I watch The Summit?
Simply click here to claim your free ticket. You should immediately get an email confirming your registration – just follow the directions in that email and you will get a link sent to you 24 hours before The Summit goes live. You can view The Summit on any phone, tablet, or computer.
I signed up for the 2017,2018, 2019, and 2020 All Access passes, but am not sure how to access those membership pages.

Click here, and simply fill in your info.  You will be be taken to a page that allows you access the 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 content. If you have forgot your Canadian Financial Summit password, simply click here to re-set it.

A sampling of the sessions

Rob Carrick

Where is Housing Headed?

In a drastic change from past years, we’re seeing some major pull backs in the Canadian housing market. Join Rob and I as we break down how this is affecting Canadians’ net worth, who is getting hit the hardest, and where we go from here. We also discuss if renting is still an option that we’re recommending and what we think could happen in regards to the long-term trends of immigration and housing stock within Canada now that the pandemic is in the rearview mirror.

Ellen Roseman

Addressing Canadians’ Inflating Sense of Worry

Longtime Canadian consumer advocate Ellen Roseman is back and wants to help Canadians weather the recent storm of inflation and rising costs of living.  Her personal experience with Canada’s last bout of quickly rising prices have given her some hard-won wisdom in practical ways to deal with modern inflation issues.  We talk about what to pay attention to, watch out for, and some top tips in this high-price environment.  We wrap by speculating on what all of this will mean for Canadians’ investment portfolios. Continue Reading…

Your home and your retirement plan

By Anita Bruinsma, CFA, Clarity Personal Finance

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

“Your home should not be your retirement.”

This is a common headline in personal finance and although the details are nuanced, the headline can give the wrong impression: that you shouldn’t rely on the equity in your home to fund your retirement.

Certainly, it shouldn’t be the only source of retirement income: homeowners also have to save using RRSPs and TFSAs. However, homeowners in high-priced housing markets will likely have excess equity in their homes that should be considered when building a retirement plan and determining how much they need to save.

The rationale for the “don’t rely on your home for retirement” advice is twofold: first, that you will always need a place to live and the value of your home will be needed to buy or rent another residence; and second, that you need money to buy food and other things, which you can’t do if all your wealth is tied up in your home.

Both these points are valid, but they don’t apply to everyone. Like all aspects of financial planning, each individual’s personal circumstances need to be considered and in fact, many people should count on their home to help fund their retirement.

You’ll always need a place to live

To address the first point — that your current home will fund your next home — consider doing an analysis that looks at the cost of renting for the years after you sell your home. For those in high-priced housing markets like Toronto, the proceeds from selling a mortgage-free home will likely more than offset the cost of renting for 30 years in retirement, including paying for long-term care. The same analysis applies to downsizing by buying a smaller place in a less-expensive market. This means there could very well be excess funds that can be used later in life and this should be accounted for when determining how much retirement savings you need. Continue Reading…

Learning from my own Investment Mistakes

By Bob Lai, Tawcan

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Like many Canadians, early in my investing career, I was investing in high fee mutual funds and the high fees were eating into my returns. I started dabbling in DIY investing but I didn’t get very serious about it until around 2010.

When it comes to DIY investing, I would group DIY investors into two categories. Investors in the first category are people that rely completely on low cost index ETFs. They purchase ETFs on their own and re-balance them regularly. In the past few years, the emergence of all-in-one ETFs like VGRO and XGRO and all-equity ETFs like VEQT and XEQT have significantly simplified the investing process for these investors.

DIY investors in the second category are people that invest in individual stocks and possibly index ETFs as well. These investors study and research individual stocks and make the requisite buying and selling decisions.

As you’d expect, we fall in the second category. We manage our own portfolio and invest in both index ETFs and individual stocks. We have adopted this approach because we want to be more involved with our money and have more control over it. I also enjoy learning about investment-related topics and how to analyze stocks.

I will admit that I have made A LOT of investment mistakes throughout the years. However, investing mistakes are inevitable. The important thing is that we learn from them. That is the absolutely crucial thing as we all make mistakes; it is the learning from those mistakes that distinguishes the good/great investor from the mediocre/poor one.

So, I thought I’d share my learning from my investment mistakes and hopefully help readers to avoid the same mistakes.

Here are some investment mistakes I have made since I started managing our investment portfolio. They are not specific to only dividend growth stock investing.

Note: These mistakes aren’t in any particular order.

Mistake #1: Not doing proper research 

When we first started with dividend investing, I knew very little about how to analyze dividend growth stocks. Like many new dividend investors, I was very much focused on only one metric – high yield. I was not paying any attention to other key metrics like payout ratio, dividend streak, or dividend growth rate. I certainly wasn’t keeping a dividend scorecard.

I stumbled onto a high yield dividend stock called Liquor Store in 2012. At first, I was overjoyed to find a dividend stock in the alcohol industry. Without doing my own research, I assumed that Liquor Store owned and operated all the liquor stores in Canada. I bought $1,500 worth of Liquor Store thinking I had hit the jackpot.

The first couple of years, I was really happy collecting dividends but the share price stayed flat. Upon further research, I learned that I was deeply mistaken. Unlike what I initially assumed, Liquor Store operated privately owned stores. The company operated 230 retail liquor stores in Canada and the US. In other words, the company was competing against Crown-owned liquor stores.

The business certainly wasn’t as rosy as I originally anticipated. The stock price then took a beating when BC introduced legislation to allow licensed grocery stores to sell BC wine.

Due to the deteriorating business environment, Liquor Store cut its dividend in 2016 and we exited this position shortly after, taking around 50% loss, not counting dividends collected.

Although I was deploying the be an owner strategy, I didn’t do my due diligence and learn more about the company. I failed to understand that the company was operating privately owned stores. I also failed to realize the Liquor Store only had a small fraction of the market share and was competing against Crown-owned liquor stores in Canadian provinces.

The biggest mistake? I foolishly assumed that since people would regularly buy alcohol, therefore the company would always be highly profitable, and the dividends would be safe.

I was simply too naive.

What did I learn from this mistake? I learned to always do research about the company regardless of whether I know the company very well or not. Never assume that I know something and never let my ego take over. At a minimum, learn about the company by going over investor presentations that most companies have under their investor relations. It is also important to go over quarterly and annual reports or consult websites such as MorningstarYahoo FinanceMarketbeatDigrinSeeking AlphaSimply Wall St, etc.

In case you’re wondering, Liquor Store eventually was de-listed. It is now part of Alcanna (CLIQ.TO).

Mistake #2: Being greedy, not following my own rules

When I graduated in 2006 and entered the workforce, my company’s stock was trading around $15 per share. After my three-month probation period, I enrolled myself in the share purchase program and purchased company stocks with a portion of my pay-cheque every two weeks (the company matched 15% of my contribution).

The stock price went up to $22 in 2007 but I decided to keep my shares instead of selling them.

Then the financial crisis happened and the company stock went down the drain. My company stopped the share purchase program and I owned a few hundred shares at a cost basis in the low teens.

Early in 2009, the company stock went all the way down to just below $4 a share. It sat around that price for a few months. Being young and with some money saved up, I decided to purchase 300 shares at $3.93. I then purchased a few hundred shares more as the stock price climbed its way up to around $10.

Altogether, I owned less than 2,000 of my company shares. Knowing that the company was not profitable at the time and that I could be easily replaced in a blink of an eye, I decided that it was not a good idea to put all my money in one basket, so I invested my money elsewhere (i.e. high fee mutual funds).

My company turned itself around in 2012 and the stock price started climbing. At one point, I told myself that I’d sell everything when the stock hit $20.

Throughout 2013, the stock price kept climbing, reaching a high of $25. The company was firing on all cylinders – we had won many multi-million deals with key customers and we were gaining market shares. I sold a few hundred shares to take in some profit. But I was not satisfied. I believed that the stock price would keep climbing.

I was being greedy and wanted to make more money.

So I kept most of my shares.

The stock price continued to climb. First, it was $30 per share. I told myself I’d wait for a little bit longer and sell when the price hit $35.

The stock price hit $35. Once again, I told myself I’d wait for $40.

Then the stock price hit $40 and I told myself I’d wait for $45 before selling everything.

The stock price went higher and higher. It was exhilarating. Everyone in the company was excited and happy about the stock price.

In early 2015, the stock price hit a high of just below $55. I thought about selling all my shares at the time but decided to reset my selling target to $60.

I was crunching numbers and imagining how much money I’d profit if I sold all my shares at $60.

But the stock price never got anywhere close to $60. In about three months’ time, the share price quickly tumbled from a high of around $55 to just below $20.

I was kicking myself for not selling my shares at higher prices. A year later the stock price eventually climbed back up. Seeing that I missed the boat the first time and didn’t want to miss my chance again, I sold a few hundred shares at a time as the stock price climbed its way up to $35.

What lesson did I learn? First of all, I was being too greedy and wanted to sell things at a high point. But I couldn’t have predicted where the top was so I completely missed it. Although it’s fine to increase my selling target incrementally, what I should have done was to sell some shares along the way and take in profits while the stock price was going up, instead of just holding onto all the shares and keeping increasing my selling target price.

Investing has a lot to do with being patient, setting and executing strategies as flawlessly as possible, and not letting your ego get in the way. In this instance, I totally got my ego in the way. I needed to learn to have an exit plan and execute this exit plan according to it, rather than continuously deviating from it.

Mistake #3: Not thinking long term

I purchased a number of Google shares in October 2012, a few days after Google announced a terrible quarterly result and the stock price went for a slide. At around $340 a share, I thought the per-share price was high but when I looked at the PE ratio and how much cash Google had, I thought I purchased Google shares at a discount (remember, you can’t just look at the stock price alone and claim it’s expensive).

Goog purchase

I’ve always wanted to own Google shares, ever since I started using Google for internet searches in the late 1990s. I was amazed at how good and efficient Google was compared to other search engines like Yahoo, Altavista, and Excite (remember them?). As a teenager, I was convinced that Google would be extremely profitable. In the early 2000s, on several occasions, I told my dad to invest in Google if the company was to go public. Continue Reading…