All posts by Financial Independence Hub

Bank of Mom and Dad: Without cash to give, it’s wise to consider lending good financial lessons and habits

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Simplii Financial

 

By Grant Rasmussen

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

When the going gets tough and your bank account gets lighter, for many young people, having your parents on speed dial is a go-to solution. But with inflation rates not seen since the 1980s, and interest rates reaching their highest point since 2008, Canadians – including parents – are facing unprecedented financial realities, and may not be in a position to pick up the call. The impact of this for many younger adults and students is that borrowing from the ‘Bank of Mom and Dad’ isn’t the option it once was.

The numbers show that parental support has been significant for their children: a recent study last year found that parents gave over $10B in down-payment help over the past year to younger Canadians in the housing market. With the average cost of a down payment climbing from $52,000 in 2015 to $82,000 in 2021, that help is needed more than ever.

While down payments represent one big ticket item on the spending list, there’s also tuition, rent and other living expenses, etc. all to help young people make ends meet. And in a year that marks a major financial plot twist, those same parents are facing their own challenges to do just that.

According to a new study, four-in-five (80 percent) Canadians have begun cutting back on spending—some ways include trimming discretionary spending, delaying major purchases, or deferring saving for the future. This is up from 74 percent in February, showing that more Canadians are feeling pressure financially.

With less cash to support their kids, sound advice from Mom and Dad may be the next best thing. Below are a few places to start.

Keep ALL your money

Fees are a slippery slope. Whether it’s subscription fees for things you’re not using or day-to-day avoidable fees on things like banking, it’s important to look at the cumulative effect of small, ongoing fees. At Simplii, we offer a no-fee chequing account, with no monthly fee, unlimited bill payments, e-transfers and more. Additionally, you have free access to over 3,400 CIBC ATMs throughout Canada, saving people from paying service fees. When times are tighter, it’s worth looking at every spending category to see where efficiencies can be found. Continue Reading…

Living off the Dividends?

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By Dale Roberts, cutthecrapinvesting

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

It is the most popular rallying cry for self-directed investors in Canada and the U.S. – I plan to “live off of the dividends.” Or in retirement – “I am living off of the dividends.” The notion leaves money on the table in the accumulation stage and living off of the dividends leaves a lot of money on the table in retirement. Don’t get me wrong, I love the big juicy (and growing) dividend as a part of our retirement plan. But as an exclusive strategy, the income approach simply comes up short.

It’s not a popular Tweet, but I have suggested that no investor with a viable and sensible financial plan would live off the dividends. Add this to the points made in the opening paragraph; it might not be tax-efficient. Also, the dividend would have no idea of what is a financial plan and what is the most optimal order of account type spending. Check in with the our friends at Cashflows&Portfolios and they can show you a very efficient order of asset harvesting.

On Seeking Alpha, I recently offered this post:

Living off dividends in retirement; don’t sell yourself short.

Thanks to Mark at My Own Advisor for including that post in the well-read Weekend Reads.

Financial Planner: It may be a bad idea

From financial planner Jason Heath, in the Financial Post.

Why living off your dividends in retirement may be a mistake.

Retirement planning is a personal decision, but you might be making a big mistake if you go out of your way to ensure you can live off your dividends, since you will be leaving a great deal of money when you die. In the process, you may have worked too hard at the expense of family time or spent too little at the expense of treating yourself.

In that Seeking Alpha post, I used BlackRock as the poster child for a lower-yielding dividend growth stock. The yield is lower but the dividend growth is impressive. That can often be a sign of underlying earnings growth and financial health.

2022 update: BlackRock is falling with the market (and then some); the yield is now above 3%.

Making homemade dividends

In that Seeking Alpha post, I demonstrated the benefit of selling a few shares to boost the total retirement take from BlackRock. The retiree gets an impressive income boost, and only had to sell 2.8% of the initial share count. The risk is managed.

Starting with a hypothetical $1 million portfolio, $50,000 in annual income represents an initial 5% spend rate. That is, we are spending 5% of the total portfolio value. Without share sales the retiree would have been spending at an initial 3.3%.

Share Sales (in the table) represents the income available thanks to the selling of shares: creating that homemade dividend.

The retiree who has the ability to press that sell button to create income enjoyed much higher income. In fact, the retiree would have been able to sell significantly more shares (compared to the example above) to create even more additional income.

Plus the dividend growth is so strong, it quickly eliminated the need to sell shares.

BlackRock Dividend Growth – Seeking Alpha

In fact, the BlackRock dividend quickly surpasses the income level of the Canadian bank index. It can be a win, win, win. Even for the dividend-loving Canadian accumulator, BlackRock is superior on the dividend flow.

But of course, the aware retiree will keep selling shares and making hay when the sun shines. They might cut back any share sales in a market correction: also known as a variable withdrawal strategy.

It’s a simple truth. Don’t let the income drive the bus. It doesn’t know where you need to go. This is not advice, but consider growth and total return and share harvesting.

Don’t sell yourself short.

In the Seeking Alpha post, I also offered:

The optimal mix of income and growth for retirement Continue Reading…

Planning in uncertain times: How inflation is pressuring Canadian businesses to meet employee expectations

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By Elizabeth English, Mercer Canada 

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

The squeeze inflation is putting on businesses and their employees alike is being felt around the globe. As employees and their families deal with the increasing cost of living, employers are under pressure as they manage compensation budgets and salary expectations for the next year and beyond. Employees have heightened expectations of a commensurate pay increase with lower purchasing power. Employers must respond or risk losing talent.

As businesses grapple with the best ways to retain existing employees and attract new hires, Mercer released its 2023 Compensation Planning Survey, compiling data from more than 550 organizations of varying sizes across 15 industries. The survey reveals a number of insights for employers and employees alike.

Most companies are just beginning to think about increase budgets

With the price of everything from gas to groceries on the rise, there is an expectation from employees that their compensation should keep up with rising costs. Many organizations are in the early stages of deciding how to respond; the Survey shows that as of August, only 5 per cent of organizations had approved increased budgets, 11 per cent had proposed increases, and 84 per cent were still in preliminary stages.

Budgets continue to rise

Inflation is causing Canadian employers to increase their compensation budgets. Heading into the upcoming year, employers surveyed are budgeting an average of 3.4 percent for merit increases and 3.9 per cent for total increase budgets in 2023. This puts merit and total budget increases up from 3.1 per cent and 3.4 per cent, respectively, from 2022. However, even with these raises, merit and total increases fall short of year-over-year inflation, which hit a 40-year high of 8.1 per cent in June, moderating to 7.6 per cent in July and 7.0 per cent in August.

Across Canada, the highest increases in total budgets are in Montreal (4.5 per cent), Greater Edmonton (4.3 per cent), Saskatchewan (4.2 per cent) and Greater Calgary (4.1 per cent). With compensation budget increases falling well short of inflation, organizations across Canada will need to focus on managing employee expectations. This can be done through their internal communications, planning for multiple scenarios, as well as adopting a more comprehensive and broader total rewards perspective to attract and retain talent.

Off-cycle increases are being used for a variety of reasons

Historically, inflation isn’t the top metric for shaping compensation strategies. Still, in this high inflation environment, 34 per cent of organizations are considering ad-hoc, off-cycle wage reviews or adjustments to combat turnover. This is a significant hike from 19 percent considering the same in March of 2022. Continue Reading…

Get Income at the Short End

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Franklin Templeton/iStock

By Brian Calder,

Franklin Bissett Investment Management

(Sponsor Content)

Nowhere to run to, nowhere to hide: that could be the description of the 2022 investor year. It has been a difficult 2022, and many investors are looking to enhance their cash positions while preserving capital, given market volatility and rising interest rates. In this environment of high inflation, higher rates, and slow economic growth, an ultra-short duration bond strategy could be timely.

The major equity and bond markets have been hit hard this year by geopolitical shocks, fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, and sluggish growth. Rapid and aggressive moves by major central banks to increase interest rates resulted in a flat or inverted bond yield curve and contributed to elevated market volatility. An inverted yield curve means that interest rates on short-term bonds are higher than those of long-term bonds. For instance, on October 6, 2022, the yield on the three-month Government of Canada bond was around 3.68%, while the yield on the 10-year Government of Canada bond was 3.34%.

An inverted yield curve is often seen as a pessimistic market signal about the prospects for the wider economy in the near term. Bond markets have priced in even more interest rate hikes from central banks like the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve.

So, rather than thinking about being ‘ahead of the curve,’ it may be time for investors to be at the front of the curve.

These challenging market conditions are ideal for an ultra-short-duration bond strategy. Duration is a number that’s used to measure how sensitive a bond’s price is to changes in interest rates:  how much the price is likely to change as rates change. The longer the duration, the greater the sensitivity to shifts in interest rates for a bond. Understanding the use of duration can help an investor determine the position of bonds in a portfolio.

Time for short-term thinking

At the front end of the federal government bond yield curve, opportunities are available for investors because the curve remains flat in the middle and at the back end. A yield comparison of the Canadian market as of August 31, 2022, showed that an ultra-short duration strategy outperformed three-month Treasury bills and was competitive with one-year to three-year government bonds. Because short-term yields are less sensitive to rate hikes, they can be more protected and stable, plus they are not as exposed to potential drawdowns like those seen in strategies with longer-term exposures.

Also, an ultra-short duration strategy can be less volatile than longer bonds (see chart).

 

Continue Reading…

When will this be over, How deep will it go, and How will it end?

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By Noah Solomon

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Against a backdrop of sky-high inflation, rising rates, and growing recession concerns, stocks have had a dismal year, with technology and unprofitable growth companies experiencing particularly severe losses.

Given the carnage in global markets, investors are pondering the following three questions:

  1. How long will the carnage last?
  2. How much more will equities fall before hitting bottom?
  3. What might it take for equity fortunes to turn?

In my commentary below, I address these questions from a historical perspective.

The current Bear Market: Fairly Average by Historical Standards

To begin, I analyzed all peak-tough declines of more than 15% in the S&P 500 Index since 1950, which are listed in the following table:

 

 

The average length of all 15%+ declines is 310.9 days. Taking the recent peak on January 3, the current bear market clocks in at 270 days as of the end of September. The time is at hand when the current decline will have become average from a historical standpoint. In terms of magnitude, the average decline has been 28.7%. As is the case with duration, we are near the point at which the current decline in prices can be construed as garden variety, with the S&P 500 Index down 24.3% from its early January peak through September 30.

Although historical averages are a useful guidepost for contextualizing where the current decline in stocks stands, they must nonetheless be taken with a large grain of salt. Of the 17 declines in the S&P 500 index since 1950, 14 have been at least 5% less or 5% more severe than the average decline of -28.7%, and five of them have fallen outside of the +/- 10% band of the average. There is no guarantee that markets will continue to decline until they match the historical average. Similarly, it is entirely possible that the current decline will eventually exceed the historical norm (perhaps meaningfully so).

Every bear market is unique in its own way. They may share certain commonalities but none of them are exactly alike. They differ either in terms of their causes, their macroeconomic environments, or the accompanying fiscal and monetary responses. Accordingly, we further scrutinized the data to ascertain whether there are any factors that can be associated with worse than run of the mill bear markets.

One Hell summons another

We found that past bear market patterns can be well-summarized by the Latin expression “abyssus abyssum invocat,” which means “one hell summons another.” Historically, once stocks have already suffered precipitous declines, they have tended to continue falling over the short term. Of the eight losses that have breached the -25% threshold, the average peak-trough loss was 39.1%. Alternately stated, during times when stocks declined by at least 25%, the panic train went into high gear, with stocks declining a further 14.1% on average.

Beware the “R” Word

Bear markets that have been accompanied by recessions have tended to be more vicious than their non-recession counterparts. Of the 17 declines in the S&P 500 Index of at least 15%, nine have been accompanied by recessions. The average length of these nine episodes is 427.8, which clocks in at a full 116 days longer than the average for all 17 observations. Continue Reading…