Victory Lap

Once you achieve Financial Independence, you may choose to leave salaried employment but with decades of vibrant life ahead, it’s too soon to do nothing. The new stage of life between traditional employment and Full Retirement we call Victory Lap, or Victory Lap Retirement (also the title of a new book to be published in August 2016. You can pre-order now at VictoryLapRetirement.com). You may choose to start a business, go back to school or launch an Encore Act or Legacy Career. Perhaps you become a free agent, consultant, freelance writer or to change careers and re-enter the corporate world or government.

Why retiring baby boomers won’t destroy the stock markets

Posted By |
Shutterstock

By Dale Roberts

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

It’s a fear or suggestion that we hear repeated quite often. The massive cohort of retiring baby boomers will need to sell their stocks to create income and that will crash the stock markets.

Or let’s just say it could cause a slow bleed, taking down or suppressing the stock markets over the coming decades. As you may know the the stock market is, well, a market: it simply lines up the buyers and sellers and when there are more sellers than buyers the price of the stocks will decline.

When we hear the numbers on the baby boomers and more specifically how many boomers will retire each day, it’s often the US numbers that are repeated. When it comes to financial markets it is often very US-centric.

From this from Forbes.com article …

There were 77 million Baby Boomers born between 1947 and 1964, roughly 4.5 million per year. Some doomsayers are predicting the Boomers will drain the equity markets of their capital once they retire. Should you worry? Are your equity portfolios at risk?

It’s now predicted that there are 10,000 baby boomers retiring (in the US) each day. Now when the AARP releases figures such as that they simply use age 65 as a retirement date. Perhaps that’s not a bad benchmark but so many will retire well before age 65, and many more will not retire until well into their 70s and beyond. Many will not retire at all; they’ll continue with part time work. Baby boomers are known for being quite entrepreneurial.

And then, not all retiring baby boomers are going to go out and sell all of their stocks on their 65th birthdays. The public and private pension managers are not going to aggressively sell out of their US stock positions. Pensions hold well-diversified portfolios of US and International stocks and bonds and that also includes massive exposure to private equity: assets that are not ‘in’ the stock markets.

Why the boomers won’t crash the markets

The markets are mostly efficient and they factor in all available information with respect to individual stocks, economies and larger trends. It’s not news that North America is getting ‘older.’ That’s already priced in to the markets.

There is a heavy concentration of US stock ownership by more wealthy US citizens. The challenge for many may not be how fast can they sell their stocks but what to do with all of this wealth. Also, baby boomers are about to inherit over $15 trillion over the next 20 years. That will reduce or eliminate the need to sell those stock shares. You’ll find that, and some other interesting baby boomer stats in this Fool article.

I’ve been writing on Seeking Alpha for quite some time, and the readership is largely quite affluent. Many of these American boomer investors write more of accumulating more stocks in the retirement stage. In Retirees Don’t Say No When The Market Offers You A Nice Bonus I linked to a study that confirms that more affluent US retirees don’t spend down their retirement assets. They even become ‘savers.’

It’s a continual theme as well that many of these retirees ‘live off of the dividends.’ They’re not selling shares; they are simply collecting and spending the dividends. They will not put sell pressure on the markets.

New buyers

The millennial generation is even larger than the Baby Boomers and they will enter their accumulation stage and will be buyers of stock assets directly and by way of their pensions. There will be demand for stocks from younger generations. The Washington Post stated that the millennials will overtake the Boomers in 2019. We also have those echo-boomers and Gen-X’ers stepping in.

Bond yields are low; investors and pension managers know that they need those stocks for the longer term growth potential. Of course, we can often get greater income (and growing income) from stock dividends compared to bonds. The low yield environment also affects those newer and current accumulators as well as they may choose to shun low yielding bonds and embrace more stock exposure.

In Canada we see investors in that Balanced Growth Sweet Spot.

What history has to say

And if we look to the past and to studies, historically the correlation between age and asset prices is weak according to this white paper … Continue Reading…

Should you withdraw the Commuted Value of your Defined-Benefit Pension?

Posted By |

By Michael J. Wiener

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Should you withdraw the Commuted Value of your Defined-Benefit Pension?

No. There are some exceptions, but the answer is almost always no. In fact, if a financial advisor is pushing you to pull out the commuted value of your pension, that’s a sign that you’re likely working with a bad advisor.

There is almost no chance that your advisor will choose investments that outperform a pension fund, mainly because the total fees you pay with an advisor are so much higher than the fees charged within a pension fund.

Some advisors will tell you that you won’t pay any fees because the mutual funds pay the advisor. Don’t believe this. Mutual funds and advisors get paid out of your savings.

Further, defined-benefit pensions have the advantage of handling longevity risk. Pension funds can afford to pay you based on your expected life span, and they’ll keep paying if you happen to live long. With an advisor managing your money, you need to hold back on your spending in case you live long.

Where it might make sense to take the commuted value

There are some cases where it makes sense to withdraw your pension’s commuted value. Here are a few:

1. Poor health makes you likely to die much younger than average. In this case, taking the commuted value allows you to spend more now or leave a larger legacy. Continue Reading…

How to create a pension for the Average Joe: 65 with as little as $200K in Savings

Posted By |

By Billy and Akaisha Kaderli, RetireEarlyLifestyle.com

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

We know many of our readers are not “average.” However, if average Joe can support his retirement on as little as US$200,000 savings, imagine what you can do with the amount you have!

By reading the chart below, you can see that the average spending for retirement households age 65 – 74 is US$46,000.


It is tough to make that $46k amount with only Joe’s savings, so what should he do?

Social Security

The average recipient today (in the United States) collects US$1,461 a month, or US$17,532 a year. Joe’s SS check is average and he has a wife who also collects the average Social Security amount.

$17,532 times 2 (people) = US$35,000 per year.

Not quite the $46,000 that they need but getting closer.

Hopefully, Joe has his retirement money invested in VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market) or SPY (S&P 500 Index) and is making market gains equaling around 10% annually.


Here you can see that since the 1950’s — about when Joe was born — the S&P 500 has had an annualized return of over 11%, dividends reinvested, but let’s use 10% as a more conservative projection.

Remember, Joe has to make up $11,000 to match his average spending ($46,000). But let’s give Joe an extra one thousand dollars per year so he can pamper Mrs. Joe with occasional gifts and dinners out.

So, he needs $12,000 out of the $200,000 in savings per year to make up the difference in spending. That’s an extra $1.000 per month.

Invested in the S&P 500 — based on 69 years of returns and using 10% as the annual return — after his first year he would have $220,000 minus $12,000 withdrawal = $208,000.

Now Joe has $47,000 in annual income: $35,000 from Social Security and $12,000 from investments.

Plus, his $200,000 has grown to $208,000, a 4% gain outpacing inflation at the current rate of less than 2% per year.

Their Social Security payment is also indexed to inflation so as inflation rises, so will their Social Security. Continue Reading…

Retired Money: What to do about falling GIC rates

Posted By |
PWL Capital’s Ben Felix

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column has just been published. It looks at the reversal the past year in interest rates, which impacts seniors who had started to look forward to at least half-decent GIC rates near 3%. You can find the full piece by clicking on the highlighted headline: Are GICs right for retirees looking for Fixed Income? 

Short of embracing high-yielding dividend paying stocks, the more palatable alternative for conservative retirees might be fixed-income ETFs. The article focuses on a recent video by CFA Charterholder Benjamin Felix, an Ottawa-based portfolio manager for PWL Capital. Felix argues that at a minimum such investors should have a mix of both fixed-income ETFs and GIC ladders.

The latter let you sleep at night because they are invariably “in the green” in investment accounts. But while in the short term fixed-income ETFs can be in the red — just like equity ETFs — Felix makes a compelling argument for the higher potential returns of bond ETFs.

Felix believes that what really matters for investors is total return: “Holding a lower-rate GIC after a rate increase still results in an economic loss.” Bond returns consist of principal, interest payments and reinvested interest, so focusing only on return of principal misses the point. Individual bonds are not ideal for individual investors, as they require extensive research, are relatively expensive and tricky to trade.

Short-term GICs miss out on the term premium

But short-term GICs miss out on the term premium, which is substantial over time. Going back to 1985, Felix says short-term bonds returned 6.51% annualized versus 7.97% for the aggregate bond universe (which includes some short-term bonds).  This shows how much mid- and long-term bonds bring up the overall return. To be clear, this period captures one of the greatest bond markets in history but Felix says it is still reasonable to expect a relationship between riskier longer-term bonds and higher expected bond returns. Risk and return should be related.

GICs are also illiquid, so even if an investor chooses to include GICs in a portfolio, they will generally also include bond ETFs, which – like stock ETFs – can be sold any trading day. Nor do GICs provide exposure to global bonds.

Of course, a nice alternative are those asset allocation ETFs we have often discussed on this site. See for example this excellent overview by CutthecrapInvesting’s Dale Roberts: Which All-in-One, One-Ticket Portfolio is right for you? 

The Felix video can be found at his Common Sense Investing YouTube series here.

 

No surprise: the best retirement investments are the same as for everyone else

Posted By |

We recommend that you base your investing for retirement on a sound financial plan relying on the best retirement investments.

One thing investors of all ages fear is not having a good financial plan in place so they have enough retirement income to live on once they’ve stopped working. Looking for the best retirement investments, addressing this concern is usually a high priority for many of our Successful Investor Portfolio Management clients.

Four key factors to consider when investing for retirement

  1. How much you expect to save prior to retirement;
  2. The return you expect on your savings;
  3. How much of that return you’ll have left after taxes;
  4. How much retirement income you’ll need once you’ve left the workforce.

Our portfolio diversification approach gives you strong potential for long-term gains  

If you diversify as we advise, you improve your chances of making money over long periods, no matter what happens in the market.

For example, manufacturing stocks may suffer if raw-material prices rise, but in that case your Resources stocks will gain. Rising wages can put pressure on manufacturers, but your Consumer stocks should do better as workers spend more.

If borrowers can’t pay back their loans, your Finance stocks will suffer. But high default rates usually lead to lower interest rates, which push up the value of your Utilities stocks.

As part of their portfolio diversification strategy, most investors should have investments in most, if not all, of these five sectors. The proper proportions for you depend on your temperament and circumstances.

For example, conservative or income-seeking investors may want to emphasize utilities and Canadian banks in their portfolio diversification, because of these stocks’ high and generally secure dividends.

More aggressive investors might want to increase their portfolio weightings in Resources or Manufacturing stocks. For example, more aggressive investors could consider holding as much as, say, 25% to 30% of their portfolios in Resources.

However, you’ll want to spread your Resource holdings out among oil and gas, metals and other Resources stocks for diversification and exposure to a number of areas.

Stick with conservative estimates to account for unforeseen setbacks

As for the return you expect from investing for retirement, it’s best to aim low. If you invest in bonds, assume you will earn the current yield; don’t assume you can make money trading in bonds.

Over long periods, the total return on a well-diversified portfolio of high-quality stocks runs to as much as 10%, or around 7.5% after inflation. Aim lower in your retirement planning — 5% a year, say — to allow for unforeseeable problems and setbacks.

Above all, it’s important to remember that while finances are important, the happiest retirees are those who stay busy. You can do that with travel, golf or sailing. But volunteering, or working part-time at something you enjoy, can work just as well. Continue Reading…