Victory Lap

Once you achieve Financial Independence, you may choose to leave salaried employment but with decades of vibrant life ahead, it’s too soon to do nothing. The new stage of life between traditional employment and Full Retirement we call Victory Lap, or Victory Lap Retirement (also the title of a new book to be published in August 2016. You can pre-order now at VictoryLapRetirement.com). You may choose to start a business, go back to school or launch an Encore Act or Legacy Career. Perhaps you become a free agent, consultant, freelance writer or to change careers and re-enter the corporate world or government.

The Balanced Portfolio journey after a terrible 2022

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By Dale Roberts, cutthecrapinvesting

Special to Financial Independence Hub

The balanced portfolio had a terrible 2022. In fact, it was just about the worst ever. Stocks were down and bonds had a rough ride delivering negative returns thanks to the rising yield environment. As rates go up, bond prices go down. Inflation was the culprit. Central bankers created a rising rate environment to cool the economy in the attempt to tame inflation. It was almost a year ago that I asked ‘what’s up with balanced portfolios in 2022’. Looking back on that post, things have played out as suggested in the post. And as a recession looks likely in 2023, bonds and the classic 60/40 balanced portfolio might be back in business. It’s the balanced portfolio journey on the Sunday Reads.

Here’s the post from April of 2022 – what’s up with balanced portfolios in 2022. At that point in time …

The stock and bond scorecard for 2022

  • Canadian stocks are up 1.8%
  • U.S. stocks are down 9.9%
  • International developed markets are down 11.4%
  • International emerging markets are down 13.9%

And when we looked at asset allocation ETFs, we saw that the more bond-heavy portfolios (top of that list) were down more than equity-heavy portfolios …

Here’s the year-to-date performance to April 21, 2022.

  • XINC down 8.9%
  • XCNS down 8.5%
  • XBAL down 8%
  • XGRO down 7.4%
  • XEQT down 7.0%

And while this post covering the returns of the core ETF portfolios shows that the balanced portfolio model has worked quite well over the last several years, 2022 was a down year. A typical 60/40 portfolio was down about 11% in 2022.

The all-weather model was performing well, as I wrote …

There was nowhere to hide in the traditional balanced portfolio. That said if one took more of an all-weather portfolio approach the results would be far superior. In fact the portfolios I run for myself and my wife are very near all-time highs. An all-weather portfolio will include dedicated inflation protection by way of commodities, energy and commodity stocks, plus gold.

A key to managing a balanced portfolio is rebalancing on schedule, or rebalance when certain assets perform well as other assets floudner. We move monies from the winners to the losers. In the 2022 post I suggested …

The key with any balanced portfolio approach is to rebalance on schedule. Take your gains and move the assets to the asset that’s stinking the joint out. These days, that may mean taking profits from your inflation-fighters and Canadian stocks and moving them to the underperforming assets. Yes, even moving those profits to your bonds.

In anticipation of a recession, bonds have started to work again from late 2022, with more robust gains in the last 3 months.

Bonds? Well ya!

If you need to manage the portfolio volatility, you need to manage the portfolio volatility. Meaning, your risk tolerance did not change just because bonds are getting hurt. You still need to manage the risks.

During a stock market correction (and/or recession) bonds will be there to do their thing. That is, go up when stocks get crushed. Continue Reading…

The benefits of Early Retirement

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By Billy and Alaisha Kaderli, RetireEarlyLifestyle.com

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Retirement is something that many people look forward to in their later years, but what if you could leave your career earlier?

The idea of retiring before the typical age of 65 may seem like a pipe dream to some, but it is becoming more and more of a reality for many people whether by choice or through layoffs. There are numerous benefits to this decision, both financially and in terms of lifestyle.

Financial Advantages

One of the main reasons people strive for early retirement is the financial benefits it provides.

To prepare, it’s important to have a solid financial plan in place. This is a great way to learn the skills of creating a budget, tracking your spending, and paying down debt. We learn the value of maximizing retirement contributions and investing in non-IRA accounts. It’s the time to build up retirement savings before beginning to withdraw from them. You can do this on your own, as none of this requires a professional advisor.

Acquiring these tools makes us financially strong and builds our self-confidence which then carries itself forward into other areas of our lives.

Of course there is the need to factor in the potential for unexpected expenses, such as medical bills or family emergencies. Which is why we recommend a few years of cash held in a highly liquid account such as Fidelity® Government Cash Reserves, FDRXX, currently paying over 4%. Access to this cash can also help in market downturns so you are not forced to sell at lower prices in order to live your lifestyle.

Another financial advantage is the ability to minimize taxes.

By retiring early, you may be able to reduce your taxable income and utilize tax-efficient investment strategies. For one thing, you will no longer be paying payroll taxes. Withdrawing money from your retirement accounts in a strategic manner, such as using Rule 72T before you are eligible, can minimize your tax burden in the future and potentially save you a significant amount of money in taxes over time. We did this as a monetary bridge until our Social Security was available. Once we started to receive these payments, we let our IRAs build back up again.

Lifestyle Improvements

Leaving your job or career early also offers a number of lifestyle improvements. For one, you will have more free time to pursue your passions. You could travel more, take up new hobbies, and spend more time with loved ones. We used this opportunity to give end-of=life care to our parents when that time came, something we could not have done while maintaining a full work schedule.

Early retirement can also allow you to lead a healthier lifestyle, with more time to exercise, cook healthier meals, and prioritize your mental health. You could even volunteer and give of your expertise and talents, something you never had time for while working your 9-5.

If you choose to become financially independent outside of your paycheck, you have the ability to avoid burnout. Many people feel overwhelmed by the demands of their jobs, and early retirement can provide a much-needed break while opening up new vistas for you. You are able to take a step back, reflect on your priorities, and perhaps even discover new interests and pursuits.

We did!

Taking advantage of options that seem to just appear

In our case we chose to travel the world, which gave us new perspectives on how to live our own lives. There is no one singular way to do anything, and seeing how other cultures approached community, family, and even the cooking of their food and the learning of a new language, opened up our eyes as well. Continue Reading…

Investing in your financial future: how 4 stages of life align with your journey

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By Brian Shinmar

Special to Financial Independence Hub

If there’s truth to the statement that “change is the only constant in life,” your savings goals, habits and risk tolerance should follow closely. The topic of financial planning can be uncomfortable and intimidating for many people, but it doesn’t have to be that way. Having a sound investment strategy that evolves with your stage of life can set your mind at ease, so let’s break it down into four stages and purposefully account for some general changes you should expect along your financial journey.

Early 20s & 30s: Starting your financial journey

In this stage, many clients are just starting their careers, gaining a sense of financial independence and likely have higher risk tolerance. At this early stage of life, we don’t want clients to just invest it and forget it, we want them to build key (healthy) financial habits. The key habits that I stress are:

1.) Finding a balance between paying off debt and saving for your future: A financial advisor can help young clients establish goals and determine the balance between how much and how often contributions to debts and savings should be made.

2.) Goals with a plan: Setting attainable goals, with a clear plan to help meet them, will keep your bank account growing, and debt lowering.

3.) Saving a portion of your monthly income: A general rule is to save 10-15 per cent of your income each month, but given the higher inflation and interest rates in today’s market, that might not be realistic for everyone. The bottom line is to get into the practice of saving a portion of your monthly income. This helps build your nest egg for long-term goals, like retirement or purchasing a home. Continue Reading…

Retirement investments to avoid? Here are our thoughts on this critical subject

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Retirement investments to avoid include everything from bonds down to stock options. Here’s why.

Image courtesy TSInetwork.ca

Our best retirement planning advice is to invest early and often — and don’t forget to use our three-part Successful Investor philosophy.

But if you’re heading into retirement and are short of money, you should move your investing in the direction of safer, more conservative investments. That’s a far better option than taking one last gamble on retirement investments to avoid like the ones we look at below.

Investing in bonds will hurt your retirement finances

As some investors near retirement, their advisors recommend switching to bonds and other fixed-income investments instead of holding stocks.

To some extent, this is an understandable retirement investing strategy, since bonds can provide steady income and a guarantee to repay their principal at maturity.

Unfortunately, we don’t think using bonds for retirement is the best strategy for Successful Investors. Bond prices and interest rates are inversely linked. When interest rates go up, bond prices go down, when interest rates go down, bond prices go up — and with inflation still high, there is pressure for interest rates to keep increasing.

We continue to recommend that you invest only a small part of your Successful Investor portfolio — if any — in bonds and fixed-income investments.

Investing in annuities can fall into the category of retirement investments to avoid

Here are 3 key drawbacks you should keep in mind when deciding whether annuities are a good choice for your retirement investment options:

  • It may be hard to get out if you change your mind: Unlike stocks, it can be difficult or impossible to sell an annuity if you decide it no longer meets your needs. Moreover, you will likely get a low price for your annuity because the date of your death is uncertain.
  • Link to interest rates makes today a poor time to buy annuities: The rate of return you receive on an annuity is linked to interest rates at the time you buy it. That makes periods of still relatively low interest rates an especially poor time for buying annuities. However, if you want to buy annuities, you could buy one annuity a year for the next five years. That way, your returns will increase if interest rates rise, as we expect.
  • Tax treatment: When you own an annuity, the income payments you receive are made up of interest and a return of your principal. The return of your principal is tax free, but the interest portion of the payment is taxed as ordinary income.

Retirement investments to (especially) avoid include penny stocks, junior mines, and stock options

Penny stocks: Penny stocks are cheap and that’s why many novice investors think they make great investments when they don’t have a lot of money. Here’s some insight: it’s much easier to launch a seductive penny stock promotion than it is to create a successful, lasting business. Most penny stocks are over-hyped. Penny stocks tend to be speculative, and are engaged in such things as finding mineral deposits that can be mined at a profit, commercializing an unproven technology or launching new software. They are unproven companies that have very little chance of becoming a sustainable business. You’ll also have to be on the watch for unscrupulous stock promoters who will over-inflate earnings and talk up a stock for their own best interests. If you’re headed to retirement, stay away from penny stocks.

Junior mining stocks: One rule of thumb for mining stocks is that you have to look at 1,000 “anomalies” to find one “prospect,” and that fewer than one “prospect” in a thousand turns into a mine. In other words, finding a mineable deposit is a million-to-one shot. Continue Reading…

Fixed Income: The Outlook & Opportunities

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Image by BMO ETFs

By Winnie Jiang, Vice President, Portfolio Manager, BMO ETFs

(Sponsor Content)

Little about the current economic cycle has conformed to historical norms. With divergence in employment data and leading economic indicators, recent data released sent mixed signals that left investors perplexed about the near-term economic outlook.

On one hand, the job market remains overwhelmingly strong, with ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Services bouncing back from extreme lows in December and retail sales also rebounding. The re-opening of the Chinese economy will likely provide a breather on global supply chain issues while boosting demand. Consumer credit remains well retained as default rates stay low with no warning signs of near-term upticks.

On the other hand, yield curve inversions, a precedent of most recessions, continue to worsen. 3-month U.S. Treasury yields are pushed above 10-year yields by the widest margin since the early 1980s. ISM Manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) and housing data also point to a gloomy outlook. Corporate sentiment and capital expenditure showed little signs of recovery, and housing permits have rolled back to pre-pandemic levels after surging strongly during Covid.

Source: Bloomberg, January 31st, 2023

The Outlook

While robust job markets and consumer data keep inflation well above the Fed’s long-term target, recent CPI (Consumer Price Index) announcements indicate things are steadily, albeit slowly, moving towards the right direction. The inversion of the yield curve caps the magnitude of further rate increases that could be absorbed by the economy before it slips into a recession.

Continue Reading…