Victory Lap

Once you achieve Financial Independence, you may choose to leave salaried employment but with decades of vibrant life ahead, it’s too soon to do nothing. The new stage of life between traditional employment and Full Retirement we call Victory Lap, or Victory Lap Retirement (also the title of a new book to be published in August 2016. You can pre-order now at VictoryLapRetirement.com). You may choose to start a business, go back to school or launch an Encore Act or Legacy Career. Perhaps you become a free agent, consultant, freelance writer or to change careers and re-enter the corporate world or government.

14 things you didn’t know Personal Capital® can do for you

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Personal Capital is a financial technology company that provides a range of financial services, including investment management, retirement planning, and financial planning through its website and mobile app. The company also provides personalized financial advice from certified financial advisors. But what exactly can Personal Capital do for YOU? 

We reached out to 14 Personal Capital clients and asked them this question –  “What are the most helpful things you didn’t know Personal Capital could do for you?” From how easy it is to plan retirement to getting multiple credit lines, here are 14 helpful things that Personal Capital can do for you: 

  • Easily Plan Retirement
  • Create and Manage a Budget
  • Provide Educational Resources
  • Guidance for Investment Portfolio Management 
  • Clearly Describe Your Asset Allocation
  • Track Spending
  • Analyze Investment Fees
  • Help to Maximize Retirement Savings
  • Breakdown Your Holdings Accurately
  • Generate a Tax-Optimized Investment Plan
  • Earn a 3.85% APY
  • Show Debt Paydown Progress
  • Monitor Student Loans
  • Grant Access to Two Lines of Credit

Easily Plan Retirement

Using Personal Capital has been of enormous help. I did not know I could plan or budget for my retirement until I read a post that said, “I am a retiree, and I can say that Personal Capital has made this retirement journey smooth for me as I began planning my retirement with the app seven years before I retired.” 

After reading this post, I started making my retirement plans using Personal Capital, which has been very pleasant and put me at ease. Personal Capital is an excellent tool for planning your retirement because it provides a retirement calculator that helps you track your long-term saving goals, an investment checkup tool that will tell how well your portfolio is performing, and a fee analyzer to track if your investment account loses money to hidden fees. 

Overall, I would say that the platform is very comprehensive, well thought out, and intuitive to use, making it even more appealing. — Peter Bryla, Community Manager, ResumeLab

Create and Manage a Budget

Personal Capital can help you create and manage a budget. With just a few clicks, you can quickly set up your budget categories, track and monitor your spending, and make adjustments as needed. You’ll be able to see where your money is going, how much you’re making each month, and what areas of your life could use improvement. 

Plus, you can set up reminders to ensure you stick to your budget, as well as get alerts if you exceed it. This way, you’ll have a better understanding of your overall financial picture and be able to make informed decisions about where to allocate your resources. — Amira Irfan, Founder & CEO, A Self Guru

Provide Educational Resources

An added benefit of the Personal Capital system is the immense library of resources on personal finance. Financial literacy is one of the few things you don’t get to learn about in school, but it applies to everyone. 

Even with very little knowledge about personal finance, you can learn through Personal Capital’s resources. You can find articles on retirement planning, understanding 401K plans, investment metrics, and more. This is a great tool for people who don’t know how to manage their finances but are looking to learn. — David Ring, Sr. Marketing Manager, MCT

Guidance for Investment Portfolio Management 

One thing that I recently learned about Personal Capital is that they offer investment portfolio management services

I think this is a really helpful feature for those who may not have a lot of experience with investing or who want professional guidance in managing their portfolio. With Personal Capital, you’ve got a team of advisors and some fancy technology on your side, helping you make informed decisions about your investments. And on top of that, they offer personalized recommendations based on individual goals and risk tolerance.

So in my opinion, it’s a great resource for anyone looking to make the most of their money. — Tiffany Homan, COO, Texas Divorce Laws

Clearly Describe your Asset Allocation

The analysis provided by Personal Capital on my asset allocation is far more thorough and precise. Did you realize, for instance, that VTSAX comprises 3% to 4% REITs? When I looked at Personal Capital’s blocky breakdown of what I actually invested in, I learned this. 

This tool not only examines broad categories but also allows you to click on any specific block to view a breakdown of that category. The US stock market now comprises a large-cap core, mid-cap growth, small-cap value, etc. Your overseas allocation is broken down similarly, and it will change daily based on your present holdings and the changing holdings of those holdings. — Steve Pogson, Founder & E-Commerce Strategy Lead, First Pier

Track Spending

Personal Capital is a useful tool that can track all of your spending in one place. I didn’t know this at first, but it makes sense. It syncs all of your checking account and credit card data in one place, so you have easy access to all of your financial information. 

Tracking your spending is a vital part of achieving financial stability and independence. Once you know your normal spending habits, you’ll be able to change them to achieve your financial goals, such as making a large purchase or going on that vacation you’ve always wanted. You can even create your own categories for expenditures if you don’t find a predetermined category that matches your needs. — Dustin Ray, Co-CEO & Chief Growth Officer, Incfile

Analyze Investment Fees

Personal Capital is a tool with many capabilities. The ability to analyze investment fees is one of the most surprising benefits of this tool. People don’t always think about the investment fees that they’ll need to pay when they’re looking into expanding their portfolios. 

Personal Capital has a built-in fee analyzer so you can get more out of your returns. It’s estimated that, on average, approximately 1% of returns are lost to fees. Personal Capital can ensure that you minimize that loss so that you can get the most out of your investments. This tool can analyze many investment accounts, from 401(k)s to Roth IRAs. — Alex Mastin, CEO & Founder, Home Grounds

Help to Maximize Retirement Savings

One thing that Personal Capital can do for me I didn’t know is that it can help me optimize my 401(k) plan. Personal Capital’s 401(k) Fee Analyzer tool suggests ways to reduce fees and improve returns. This can be useful if you have an employer-sponsored 401(k) plan and are looking to maximize your retirement savings. 

I recently learned that Personal Capital offers a retirement planner that helps users determine how much they need to save for retirement and provides recommendations for investments and saving strategies. — Karen Cate Agustin, Business Analyst, Investors Club

Breakdown your Holdings Accurately

Compared to using a spreadsheet, Personal Capital’s breakdown is much more thorough and accurate. This tool not only examines broad categories but also allows you to click on any specific block to view a detailed breakdown of such a category.  — Connie Glover, General Manager, Product & Market Development, BFX Furniture

Generate a Tax-Optimized Investment Plan

Personal Capital can help you create and manage an investment portfolio tailored to your individual goals and risk profile. The technology uses sophisticated algorithms to identify the best investments for your situation, taking into consideration your current savings rate, expected returns, taxes, fees, and more.  Continue Reading…

When should Early Retirees start their CPP benefits?

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When should you take your Canada Pension Plan (CPP) benefits? Like many personal finance decisions, the answer depends on your unique circumstances. In general, it makes sense to defer taking CPP until age 70. The caveat is that you need to have other resources to draw from while you wait for your CPP benefits to kick in. After all, who wants to delay spending in their “go-go” retirement years just to shore up their income in their 70s and beyond?

I’ve written before about when it makes sense to take CPP at age 60, why taking CPP at age 65 is never the optimal decision, and why taking CPP at age 70 can lead to $100,000 or more lifetime income.

But one question I often receive from readers and clients is when should early retirees take CPP? Here’s a reader named Keith, who decided to retire at the end of last year at age 60:

“My understanding is that since I won’t earn any income from now to 65, those five years will add to the CPP average calculation and potentially lower my eligible monthly amounts. If that’s the case, should I apply for CPP right away, or choose to defer it to 65 or 70? If I apply today, will those five years of zero income still be included in the average CPP calculation?”

It’s a great question. CPP is a contributory program based on how much you contributed (relative to the yearly maximum pensionable earnings) and how many years you contributed between ages 18 to 65.

To receive the maximum CPP benefit at age 65 you would need 39 years of maximum contributions. You can drop out your eight lowest years (more if you are eligible for the child rearing drop-out provision) from the calculation.

Related: How Much Will You Get From Canada Pension Plan?

You can see the problem for early retirees. They’re going to have more “zero” contribution years, which will reduce the amount of their CPP benefits.

Not so fast.

You will always get more CPP by waiting, even if you’re not working.

CPP expert Doug Runchey says that your “calculated (age-65) retirement pension” may decrease if you’re not working between age 60 and 65, but the age-adjustment factor will always make up for that decrease, and then some.

“In that situation I use the expression that you will receive a larger piece of a smaller pie if you wait, but you will always get more pie,” he said.

CPP checklist for early retirees

Here’s what to do if you’re in the early retirement camp and want to know when to take your CPP benefits. Log into your My Service Canada Account online and click on “Canada Pension Plan / Old Age Security.” My Service Canada Account

Scroll down to the “contributions” section and click on “Estimated Monthly CPP Benefits.”

CPP Contributions

You’ll see your expected CPP benefits at age 60, age 65, and age 70.

CPP benefit estimates

Now take that calculation and throw it in the garbage because it’s completely useless. That’s right. The CPP estimates you see here assume that you continue contributing at the same rate until age 65. That’s problematic if you plan to retire at age 58 or 60 and will no longer be contributing to CPP.

Go back to the previous screen and click on your CPP contributions. There you will find a web version* of your Statement of Contributions – a history of your contributions dating back to age 18. Right click on this page and “save as” (format: webpage, HTML only).

*Note you can request a copy of your Statement of Contributions in the mail, but you won’t need that for the next step.

Now visit www.cppcalculator.com and sign up for the website with your first name and email address. You’ll receive a confirmation email from the site founder David Field (co-created by Doug Runchey) to activate your account, followed by another email to login to the site and run your own unique CPP calculation. Continue Reading…

Searching for a Safe Withdrawal Rate: the Effect of Sampling Block Size

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Image by Mohamed Hassan from Pixabay

By Michael J. Wiener

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

How much can we spend from a portfolio each year in retirement?  An early answer to this question came from William Bengen and became known as the 4% rule.  Recently, Ben Felix reported on research showing that it’s more sensible to use a 2.7% rule.

Here, I examine how a seemingly minor detail, the size of the sampling blocks of stock and bond returns, affects the final conclusion of the safe withdrawal percentage.  It turns out to make a significant difference.  In my usual style, I will try to make my explanations understandable to non-specialists.

The research

Bengen’s original 4% rule was based on U.S. stock and bond returns for Americans retiring between 1926 and 1976.  He determined that if these hypothetical retirees invested 50-75% in stocks and the rest in bonds, they could spend 4% of their portfolios in their first year of retirement and increase this dollar amount with inflation each year, and they wouldn’t run out of money within 30 years.

Researchers Anarkulova, Cederburg, O’Doherty, and Sias observed that U.S. markets were unusually good in the 20th century, and that foreign markets didn’t fare as well.  Further, there is no reason to believe that U.S. markets will continue to perform as well in the future.  They also observed that people often live longer in retirement than 30 years.

Anarkulova et al. collected worldwide market data as well as mortality data, and found that the safe withdrawal rate (5% chance of running out of money) for 65-year olds who invest within their own countries is only 2.26%!  In follow-up communications with Felix, Cederburg reported that this increases to 2.7% for retirees who diversify their investments internationally.

Sampling block size

One of the challenges of creating a pattern of plausible future market returns is that we don’t have very much historical data.  A century may be a long time, but 100 data points of annual returns is a very small sample.

Bengen used actual market data to see how 51 hypothetical retirees would have fared.  Anarkulova et al. used a method called bootstrapping.  They ran many simulations to generate possible market returns by choosing blocks of years randomly and stitching them together to fill a complete retirement.

They chose the block sizes randomly (with a geometric distribution) with an average length of 10 years.  If the block sizes were exactly 10 years long, this means that the simulator would go to random places in the history of market returns and grab enough 10-year blocks to last a full retirement.  Then the simulator would test whether a retiree experiencing this fictitious return history would have run out of money at a given withdrawal rate.

In reality, the block sizes varied with the average being 10 years.  This average block size might seem like an insignificant detail, but it makes an important difference.  After going through the results of my own experiments, I’ll give an intuitive explanation of why the block size matters.

My contribution

I decided to examine how big a difference this block size makes to the safe withdrawal percentage.  Unfortunately, I don’t have the data set of market returns Anarkulova et al. used.  I chose to create a simpler setup designed to isolate the effect of sampling block size.  I also chose to use a fixed retirement length of 40 years rather than try to model mortality tables.

A minor technicality is that when I started a block of returns late in my dataset and needed a block extending beyond the end of the dataset, I wrapped around to the beginning of the dataset.  This isn’t ideal, but it is the same across all my experiments here, so it shouldn’t affect my goal to isolate the effect of sampling block size.

I obtained U.S. stock and bond returns going back to 1926.  Then I subtracted a fixed amount from all the samples.  I chose this fixed amount so that for a 40-year retirement, a portfolio 75% in stocks, and using a 10-year average sampling block size, the 95% safe withdrawal rate came to 2.7%.  The goal here was to use a data set that matches the Anarkulova et al. dataset in the sense that it gives the same safe withdrawal rate.  I used this dataset of reduced U.S. market returns for all my experiments.

I then varied the average block size from 1 to 25 years, and simulated a billion retirements in each case to find the 95% safe withdrawal rate.  This first set of results was based on investing 75% in stocks.  I repeated this process for portfolios with only 50% in stocks.  The results are in the following chart.

The chart shows that the average sample size makes a significant difference.  For comparison, I also found the 100% safe withdrawal rate for the case where a herd of retirees each start their retirement in a different year of the available return data in the dataset.  In this case, block samples are unbroken (except for wrapping back to 1926 when necessary) and cover the whole retirement.  This 100% safe withdrawal rate was 3.07% for 75% stocks, and 3.09% for 50% stocks.

I was mainly concerned with the gap between two cases: (1) the case similar to the Anarkulova et al. research where the average sampling block size is 10 years and we seek a 95% success probability, and (2) the 100% success rate for a herd of retirees case described above.  For 75% stock portfolios, this gap is 0.37%, and it is 0.32% for portfolios with 50% stocks.

In my opinion, it makes sense to add an estimate of this gap back onto the Anarkulova et al. 95% safe withdrawal rate of 2.7% to get a more reasonable estimate of the actual safe withdrawal rate.  I will explain my reasons for this after the following explanation of why sampling block sizes make a difference.

Why do sampling block sizes matter?

It is easier to understand why block size in the sampling process makes a difference if we consider a simpler case.  Suppose that we are simulating 40-year retirements by selecting two 20-year return histories from our dataset.

For the purposes of this discussion, let’s take all our 20-year return histories and order them from best to worst, and call the bottom 25% of them “poor.”

If we examine the poor 20-year return histories, we’ll find that, on average, stock valuations were above average at the start of the 20-year periods and below average at the end.  We’ll also find that investor sentiment about stocks will tend to be optimistic at the start and pessimistic at the end.  This won’t be true of all poor 20-year periods, but it will be true on average.

When the simulator chooses two poor periods in a row to build a hypothetical retirement, there will often be a disconnect in the middle.  Stock valuations will jump from low to high and investor sentiment from low to high instantaneously, without any corresponding instantaneous change in stock prices.  This can’t happen in the real world. Continue Reading…

How Robb Engen invests his own money

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*Updated for August, 2022*

Regular blog readers know that I’m a big proponent of passive investing with low cost, globally diversified index funds and ETFs. Why? Low fees are the best predictor of future returns. Global diversification reduces the risk within your portfolio. Index funds and ETFs allow investors to hold thousands of securities for a very small fee.

Investors who eventually come to understand these three principles want to know how to build their own index portfolio. There are several ways to do this: pick your own ETFs through a discount broker, invest with a robo-advisor, or buy your bank’s index mutual funds.

Still, the amount of information can be overwhelming. There are more than 1,000 ETFs, thousands of mutual funds, a dozen or more discount brokerage platforms, and nearly as many robo advisors. The choices are enough to make your head spin.

I narrowed these investment options down when I wrote about the best ETFs and model portfolios for Canadians. I’ve also explained how you can retire up to 30% wealthier by switching to index funds. Finally, I shared why you should hold the same asset mix across all of your accounts for maximum simplicity.

Now, I’ll explain exactly how I invest my own money so you can see that I practice what I preach.

My Investing Journey

I started investing when I was 19, putting $25 a month into a mutual fund. When I began my career in hospitality, I contributed to a group RRSP with an employer match. The catch was that the investments were held at HSBC and invested in expensive mutual funds.

When I left the industry I transferred my money (about $25,000) to TD’s discount brokerage platform. That’s when I started investing in Canadian dividend-paying stocks. I followed the dividend approach after reading Norm Rothery’s “best dividend stocks” in Canada articles in MoneySense.

I later found dividend growth stock guru Tom Connolly (plus a devoted community of dividend investing bloggers) and started paying more attention to stocks with a long history of paying and growing their dividends.

Five years later I had built up a $100,000 portfolio with 24 Canadian dividend stocks. My performance as a DIY stock picker was quite good. I had outperformed both the TSX and my dividend stock benchmark (iShares’ CDZ) from 2009 – 2014. My annual rate of return since 2009 was 14.79%, compared to 13.41% for CDZ and 7.88% for XIU (Canadian index benchmark).

But something wasn’t quite right. I started obsessing over oil & gas stocks that had recently tanked. I had a difficult time coming up with new dividend stocks to buy. I read more and more opposing views to my dividend growth strategy and realized I was limiting myself to a small subset of stocks in a country that represents just 3-4% of the global stock market.

Related: How my behavioural biases prevented me from becoming an indexer

Furthermore, new products were coming down the pike – including the introduction of Vanguard’s All World ex Canada ETF (VXC). Now I could buy a tiny piece of thousands of companies from around the world with just one product.

So, in early 2015 I sold all of my dividend stocks and built my new two-ETF solution (VCN and VXC). I called it my four-minute portfolio because it literally took me four minutes a year to monitor and add new money. No more obsessing over which stocks to buy or worrying if a stock was going to go to zero.

Fast-forward to 2019 and another product revolution made my portfolio even simpler. Vanguard introduced its suite of asset allocation ETFs, including VEQT – my new one-ticket investing solution.

The next change to my investment portfolio was in January 2020 when I moved my RRSP and TFSA from TD Direct Investing over to Wealthsimple Trade to take advantage of zero-commission trading. Continue Reading…

Despite inflation, Canadians still prioritizing retirement and contributing to RRSPs and TFSAs

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While the vast majority (87%) of Canadians are worried about rising costs from Inflation, Questrade Leger’s 2023 RRSP Omni report finds that 73% of RRSP owners plan to contribute again this year, and 79% of TFSA holders plan to recontribute. That’s despite the fact 69% fret that inflation will impact their RRSP’s value and 64% worry about the impact on their TFSA’s value.

“The number of Canadians who are saving for retirement remains consistent with previous years,” the report says. “Among those who are saving for retirement, about three-in-five (58%) say they are very worried compared to Canadians who are not saving for retirement. Women are also more likely to be very worried about the costs associated with rising inflation.”

Seven in ten respondents who have RRSPs told the panel they are concerned about the rising costs associated with inflation and a possible recession: 25% indicate that they are very concerned. “A similar trend is observed among those who hold TFSAs for retirement purposes, with almost two-thirds (64%) indicating that they are concerned.”

 

Worries about inflation and recession “raise questions about the ability of Canadians to control their financial future, especially when it comes to retirement,” the report says. These concerns are most acute for those with an annual income of less than $100,000: “These Canadians are also more likely to agree that they will have to draw upon their savings or investments to cover their expenses in the coming year.”

Less than half are confident about their financial future

Less than half feel they are confident when it comes to their financial future: “Only those making over $60K have confidence in their own financial future despite the current state of the economy.”

The survey seems to imply that Canadians value TFSAs a bit more than RRSPs, based on willingness to max out contribution room of each vehicle. Of course, annual TFSA room only this year moved up to $6500 per person per year, less than a quarter of the maximum RRSP room of $30,780 in 2023, for those with maximum earned income.

Only 29% of RRSP holders plan to maximize their RRSP contribution room in 2023, compared to almost half (46%) who plan to max out their TFSAs. The most enthusiastic TFSA contributors are males and those aged 55 or older.

Given economy, most worry about rising cost of food and everyday items  

Day-to-day living expenses continue to be a concern in the face of rising inflation: 79% worry about rising food prices and 77% rising everyday items. The third major concern (for 45%) is inflation’s impact on savings/investments and fourth (at 30%) is rising mortgage costs. Depending on annual incomes, worry over inflation can centre either on investments or on debt:  those in the middle to upper income brackets ($60K or more) “are much more likely to find the impact on savings / investments and increasing mortgage concerns more worrisome than compared to those who make less than $60K.”

Ability to save impacted by inflation

Three in four (74%) agree that inflation has impacted their ability to save, at least somewhat. And half (47%) have had to draw upon their savings or investments to cover expenses due to rising costs, especially those under 55 and those who are not currently saving for retirement. Many Canadians also agree they will have to draw upon their savings/investments to cover expenses in the coming year (43%). Continue Reading…