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Recession or Stagflation?

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By Dale Roberts, cutthecrapinvesting

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Many economists and market experts are suggesting that the outcome for 2022 and into 2023 might be that we experience a recession or stagflation. That’s not a good choice we might think. And of the two ‘options’, we might prefer a recession. A recession might do enough to quell inflation. And we do have to stomp out inflation hard the first time. That is, central bankers have to raise rates aggressively enough to hurt the consumer enough to reduce demand and get inflation well under control. If they let inflation fester, it may resurface and cause even more trouble as it did in the 1970’s stagflation era. Recession or stagflation, who knows what we will get. The idea is to be aware and prepared.

Recession or stagflation?

In the Globe & Mail (paywall) Ian McGugen asked the question: What comes next: stagflation or recession?

Given that it may be the very unfortunate war in Ukraine that pushes us over the edge I suggested that a Russcession is coming. From Ian …

As anyone who has read a bear-market headline has gathered by now, the economic outlook is turning ugly. The question that lingers is just what form of ugliness it will take.

In one scenario, soaring interest rates and climbing oil prices clobber the economy, leading to a painful but short recession that stamps out today’s roaring inflation.

In another scenario, a recession may be averted, but inflation isn’t. The economy stumbles along in a stagflationary funk as rising prices continue to ransack consumers’ wallets.

Of course, we don’t know what we’re going to get. We can also add a soft (economic) landing in the mix. The central bankers raise rates and make enough noise to spook the consumer enough to bring down inflation while not creating a recession. Or perhaps we get a soft and quick recesssion? Who knows? Nobody knows.

That’s why we prepare for the the unknown, for a future that we do not know.

A must read: the new balanced portfolio.

The history of bears and corrections

Here is a post that looks at the history of stock market corrections and bear markets (a correction of 20% or more). As of this writing (originally in mid June) U.S. stocks recently tipped into bear market territory. Canadian stocks are now in correction mode (down 10% or more).

It is important to be aware of the potential for portfolio decline, and also to know how long you might have to grin and bear it as you buy stocks on the way down.

And yes, if you’re in the accumulation stage, you’re a buyer. Building wealth can be and should be super easy, but it can be emotionally taxing. Maybe a better way to frame it is that building wealth is super easy, keeping that wealth is not so easy.

Stock market corrections and bear markets are wealth building turning points. We need to hang on to our past gains (don’t sell). Corrections and lower stock prices are wonderful long-term wealth building opportunities. Some of the best buying opportunites are offered during corrections and bear markets.

Not cheap, yet?

And sure, U.S. stocks are not that cheap. From Scott Barlow, citing a Goldman Sach’s report: Despite the 18% YTD S&P 500 decline, equity valuations remain far from depressed. The median S&P 500 constituent’s P/E ratio of 18x ranks in the 87th percentile since 1976. For context, in March 2020 the median stock’s P/E was 14x .

Translation: at current valuations, U.S. stocks were still more expensive only 13% of the time, from 1976. That said, it is near impossible to time the markets. The dollar cost averager will find very good value along the way. The dollar cost averager will be buying at the market bottoms and will be lowering their average cost per share.

And recently I offered that Canadian stocks are looking good with respect to valuations.

And how about international markets?

Keep buying.

The upside of rising rates

Our savings account rates and bond yieds will increase. They are increasing. At EQ Bank many GICs are now above 3% and even 4%.

Stocks are looking better but there may be more pain to come. Continue Reading…

Stop checking your portfolio

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We’re halfway through 2022 and the year has not been kind to investors, to say the least. Global stock markets are suffering their worst prolonged losses in recent memory. The S&P 500 is down about 18.5%, international stocks are down about 17%, and emerging market stocks are down about 15%. Domestic stocks have fared better, but the broad Canadian market is still down about 4% this year.

Meanwhile, bonds have not been a safe haven as rising interest rates pushed bond prices down. A broad Canadian bond index is down almost 13% this year, while short-term bonds are also down about 5.5%.

What’s an investor to do?

For starters, stop checking your portfolio so often. Investors who focus too much on short-term performance tend to react too negatively to recent losses, at the expense of long-term benefits. This phenomenon is known as myopic loss aversion:

“A large-scale field experiment has shown that individuals who receive information about investment performance too frequently tend to underinvest in riskier assets, losing out on the potential for better long-term gains (Larson et al., 2016).”

Loss aversion is a cognitive bias – the idea that a loss is psychologically more painful than the pleasure of an equivalent gain.

Think of the your portfolio returns over the past three years (2019-2021). It felt good to see your investments increase by double-digits. Here are the returns for Vanguard’s Balanced ETF (VBAL) during that time:

  • 2019 – 14.91%
  • 2020 – 10.24%
  • 2021 – 10.27%

Fast forward to 2022 and VBAL is down 10% on the year. Loss aversion tells us the pain of these losses is felt twice as powerfully as the pleasure of the previous years’ gains.

Myopic loss aversion fails to consider the bigger picture

With myopic loss aversion, we focus too narrowly on specific investments without taking into account the bigger picture. You’ve experienced this if you’ve ever checked your portfolio a short time after a recent purchase and cursed your luck if the investment is down.

Professor John List was a recent guest on the Rational Reminder podcast and he co-authored a paper on myopic loss aversion. The paper found that, “professional traders who receive infrequent price information invest 33% more in risky assets, yielding profits that are 53% higher, compared to traders who receive frequent price information.”

When asked how often investors should check their portfolio, List said, “as rarely as possible”:

“I would say once every three, six months is fine. But the reason why I don’t want you to look at your portfolio is, because when you do and you see losses, even though they’re paper losses. You say, “My gosh, that hurts.” And you’re more likely to move your portfolio out of risky assets and into less risky assets. And as we all know, just look at the data. The data over long periods of time, that’s the equity premium puzzle, is that you get much higher returns, if you’re willing to bear some of that risk. Now, if you look at your account a lot and you have myopic loss of version, you’ll be much less likely to bear that risk. So, you’ll move out and you’ll be in inferior investments.”

This applies to both novice and experience investors. I coach clients regularly on the benefits of sticking to their investment strategy and ignoring short-term market fluctuations. But it’s hard when the daily news headlines are screaming in your face about how bad the market is doing and why it’s only going to get worse.

My worst moment was during the March 2020 crash. I had just quit my job three months before, and my investments were down 34% in a short period of time. It was a rough time when even I was questioning what to do. It didn’t help that I had no RRSP or TFSA contribution room – so I couldn’t even “buy the dip” to make myself feel better.

Related: Exactly How I Invest My Own Money

What did I do? I stopped checking my portfolio. I had no reason to log-in anyway, since I wasn’t making regular contributions. I reminded myself that my investments were long-term in nature, and that markets go up most of the time. Periodic declines are the price of admission for risky assets like stocks. Continue Reading…

7 simple ways to pay off Debt in Retirement

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By Lyle Solomon

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Carrying debt into retirement can ruin your golden days. You will most likely have a limited income after retirement. Though you can boost your Social Security income by taking the proper steps, your spending may rise yearly due to inflation, causing your budget to collapse. The burden of debt and the high expense of medical bills can wreck your retirement.

According to a CNBC report, the total debt burden of America’s senior citizens has increased by 543 per cent in the last two decades. 70% of baby boomers are in credit-card debt and are unsure how they can get out of it. It is recommended to pay off your obligations as soon as possible and enjoy your golden years. Repaying your debts during retirement is always a good idea. But how will you go about it? Here are some of the ways to repay your debt in retirement so that you can enjoy your golden years.

1.) Sort your debts by priority

The first stage in debt management in retirement is prioritizing which bills to pay off first. So, make a list of all your loans, including their interest rates and remaining balances. Unsecured debts, such as credit cards, typically carry high-interest rates because no collateral is required. I recommend that you begin paying off loans with the highest interest rates first, which will help you save money in the long term. Furthermore, unlike student loans or mortgages, you cannot deduct interest payments from your tax returns on unsecured debts.

It is preferable to pay off unsecured obligations first, as they are not usually tax-deductible.

2.) Seek professional debt assistance

Are you drowning in high-interest unsecured debt? If this is the case, you may be working hard to repay your obligations but cannot do so due to the constant high-interest rates. In that case, you can seek professional assistance by contacting a reliable debt relief business. The company’s debt advisers will examine your debts and develop a reasonable payback plan based on their findings. You can enroll in a credit card consolidation process to repay your huge credit-card debt. Settling debts can be possible under the guidance of a professional debt relief company. They will  negotiate with your creditors to lower the excessive interest rates. Once your creditors have agreed, you can begin making single monthly payments for all of your debts. In this manner, you may pay off your unsecured obligations without worrying about coordinating multiple payments. You can also save money on interest payments because your debts’ interest rates will likely be reduced.

3.) Examine your budget again

Hopefully, you have a budget to keep a proper spending plan and preserve money for your financial well-being. The more you put into your monthly loan payments, the faster you’ll be debt-free. As a result, you must save more to increase your monthly loan payments.

To do so, go over your budget and identify places where you may decrease costs and save money. You can save money on things like eating out, entertainment, cable TV subscriptions, etc. You can save a significant amount of money to put towards your monthly debt payments.

4.) Follow your preferred debt repayment plan

You can use any debt payback method, debt snowball or avalanche. The debt snowball strategy requires prioritizing the debt with the lowest outstanding sum first. At the same time, you must make minimum payments on all of your other loans. After you have paid off that loan, you must focus on the debt with the second smallest outstanding balance, and so on. Continue Reading…

Real-Return Bonds and How They Compare to Regular Bonds

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Real-Return Bonds Pay A Return Adjusted For Inflation. But When You Buy A Real-Return Bond, You Are Only Protecting Yourself Against Unanticipated Rises In Inflation.

Real-return bonds pay you a rate of return that’s adjusted for inflation, but that’s not always as promising as it seems.

When a real-return bond is issued, the level of the consumer price index (CPI) on that date is applied to the bond. After that, both the principal and interest payments are typically adjusted every six months, upwards or downwards from that base level, to compensate for a rise or fall in the CPI. In general, Government of Canada real-return bonds pay interest semi-annually, on June 1 and December 1.

Look at this theoretical example to understand how a real-return bond works

The Bank of Canada issues $400 million of 30-year bonds maturing on December 1, 2049. The bonds have a coupon, or interest rate, of 2%.

If after six months from the date of issue, the new CPI level is, say, 1% above the level of the CPI on the issue date, then each $1,000 of bond principal is adjusted to $1,010 of bond principal ($1,000 x 1.01). The semi-annual interest payment is then $10.10 ($1,010 x 2% / 2).

If after 12 months, the level is 2% higher, then the bond principal is adjusted to $1,020 ($1,000 x 1.02), and the interest payment rises to $10.20 ($1,020 x 2% / 2).

Consider these three important factors to realize benefits with real-return bonds

  1. The price you pay for real-return bonds reflects the anticipated rate of inflation. In other words, if investors feel that inflation will rise 2% over the long term, the price of the bond will reflect that future inflation increase and its effect on the bond’s principal and interest payments. So, when you buy a real-return bond, you are only protecting yourself against unanticipated rises in inflation.
  2. When the inflation rate falls over a six-month period, the principal and interest payments of a real-return bond fall. In times of deflation, the inflation rate turns negative. In a prolonged period of deflation, the principal of a real-return bond could fall below the purchase price. Interest payments would fall, as well.
  3. As with regular bonds, holders of real-return bonds must pay tax on interest payments at the same rate as ordinary income. That income gets taxed at the investor’s marginal rate. In addition, holders of real-return bonds must also report the amount by which the inflation-adjusted principal rises each year, as interest income, even though you won’t receive that amount until the bond matures. That amount is added to the bond’s adjusted cost base.

Continue Reading…

Retired Money: Rising rates make annuities more tempting for Retirees

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at whether the multiple interest rate hikes of 2022 means its time for retirees to start adding annuities to their retirement-income product mix. You can find the full column by clicking on the highlighted headline here: Rising rates are good news for near-retirees seeking longevity insurance.

The Bank of Canada has now hiked rates twice by 50 basis points, most recently on June 1, 2022.  That’s good for GIC investors, as we covered in our recent column on the alleged death of bonds, but it’s also  welcome news for retirees seeking longevity insurance.

As retired actuary Fred Vettese recently wrote, retirees may start to be tempted to implement his suggested guideline of converting about 30% of investment portfolios into annuities. As for the timing, Vettese said it is “certainly not now: but it could be sooner than you think.” He guesses the optimal time to commit to them is around May 2023, just under a year from now.

After the June rate hikes, I asked CANNEX Financial Exchanges Ltd. to generate life annuity quotes for 65- and 70-year old males and females on $100,000 and $250,000 capital. The article provides the option of registered annuities and prescribed annuities for taxable portfolios. It also passes along the opinion of annuity expert Rona Birenbaum that she greatly prefers prescribed annuities because of the superior after-tax income. Of course, many retirees may only have registered assets to draw on: in RRSP/RRIFss and/or TFSAs.

For a 65-year old male investing $100,000 early in June 2022, with a 10-year guarantee period in a prescribed (non-registered) Single Life annuity, monthly income ranged from a high of $548  at Desjardins Financial Security with a cluster at major bank and life insurance companies between $538 and $542. (figure rounded). Comparable payouts on $250,000 ranged from $1299 to $1,390. Because of their greater longevity, 65-year old females received slightly less: ranging from around $500/month to a high of $518, and for the $250,000 version from $1238 to $1319.

Here’s what Cannex provides for comparable registered annuities (held in RRSPs):

For a 65-year old male (born in 1957), $100,000 in a Single Life annuity nets you between $551 and $571 per month, depending on supplier; $250,000 generates between $1,399 and $1,461 a month. For 70-year old males (born 1952), comparables are $625 to $640/month and $1,578 to $1,634 a month. Continue Reading…