Tag Archives: investing

Rebalance in May and go away?

AdrianEditor’s Note: This blog by Adrian Mastracci spawned my column in the Financial Post today, headlined In May, Don’t Sell, Rebalance. Below is the original blog written for the Hub by Adrian. — Jon Chevreau

By Adrian Mastracci, KCM Wealth

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

 “Pitfalls of “sell in May and go away” strategies are not going away anytime soon.”

The catchy phrase “sell in May and go away” is making the annual pilgrimage rounds once again; a strategy that believes stock investing from November to April has better prospects than other months. Keen followers sell their equities now, such as stocks, mutual funds and (equity) ETFs.

They then repurchase equity investments around November. The “sell in May” part of the strategy needs much closer scrutiny, especially the costs and fees of selling and repurchasing. I’m fully on board with the excitement of getting away to a favourite destination. However, I don’t see any benefits to selling in May.

 Selling in May doesn’t work well often enough

If only successful investing were that simple! As an aside, selling in May does not work well often enough. These pointers should change your views on the wisdom of selling:

  • Commissions incurred to sell and repurchase investment selections.
  • Deferred Sales Charges (DSC) may apply when you sell mutual funds.
  • Front loads or DSC fees starting at the high rate for purchasing new mutual funds.
  • Tax payable on capital gains realized in 2016 when you sell current investments.
  • Earning less interest income than dividends from equities you sold.
  • Paying more tax on that interest versus that on dividends you gave up.
  •  Say the remaining DSC on mutual funds you sell is 2% to 3%.
  •  The DSC on newly purchased mutual funds will likely rise to near 6%.
  • Current dividend yields given up are in the 3% to 4% ballpark.
  •  Interest rates on cashable deposits now hover close to 1%.
  •  Another variable is whether the repurchase prices will be lower, similar or higher than today.
  •  Not to mention the amount of short-term speculation and portfolio upheaval you take on.

While they might seem appealing, these strategies are not as simple as they initially feel.
Add up all the costs, fees
 and implications of your round trip before you sell the farm in May.

I suggest not to clear the deck, nor to take other drastic actions.
A modified investing approach may better suit your needs.

Try these ideas instead:

  • Migrate to a more comfortable, long-term asset mix.
  • Make a series of smaller investing moves.
  • Arrange another portfolio opinion.
  • Rebalance in May and go away.

Rebalance in May

Investors should not spend any time agonizing whether they should sell in May and go away. I liken it to implementing a knee-jerk reaction that does not deliver.

Perhaps all that is necessary is a rebalancing of the asset mix already in place: a strategy that sells some of the winners and buys some of the laggards.

The beauty of a simple rebalancing is that you don’t have to make the right market calls.
Just rebalance the nest egg to your asset mix targets, not to the markets.

Be extra careful when contemplating sweeping changes, like “sell in May.”
You may create lasting and costly portfolio damages.

My investing philosophy is about making logical
 decisions and following a sensible plan.
I can’t find a logical reason or plan to “sell in May.”

So I stick to the prudent, tried and true rebalancing strategy. It leaves you much more time to decide where to go to in May and thereafter.

Adrian Mastracci, MBA,  is president and portfolio manager for Vancouver-based KCM Wealth Management Inc., specializing in designing and stewarding retirement portfolios.

FWB TV: The Free Lunch that is Index Investing

Screen Shot 2016-04-28 at 11.54.55 AM
Author Lars Kroijer

It’s been said that diversification is the investing equivalent of a free lunch, since it allows you to manage your risk while getting higher returns.

 The good news is that according to research, index funds and other passively managed investments like ETFs (Exchange traded funds) have diversification built in.
Yes, we’ve heard of people who were able to buy the right individual stock or sector at the right time, but they are few and far between. You can learn more about the free lunch of indexing by viewing the latest FWB video by clicking on this title: There is such thing as a free lunch and it’s called index investing.
Indexing beats picking individual stocks or sectors
The video, which runs three-and-a-half minutes, points out that using index funds to diversify equity exposure around the world is easier and more effective than attempting to pick individual stocks or even identifying promising industries.
And while it’s possible to buy the entire world’s stock market through a single fund, investors shouldn’t take that for granted. As investment author Lars Kroijer relates, 40 or 50 years ago you would have been hard pressed to be able to buy into most markets outside North America, Europe or Japan.

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How to decide which Canadian bank is best to invest in

patmckeough
Patrick McKeough, TSINetwork.ca

By Patrick McKeough, TSINetwork.ca

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

When you want to decide which Canadian bank is best to invest in, there are a few things to consider.

We’ve long recommended that all Canadian investors own two or more of the big five Canadian bank stocks. That’s mainly because of their importance to Canada’s economy. These are key safe investments for a portfolio. The big five Canadian bank stocks also have long histories of annual dividend increases.

If you’ve decided to start by investing in just one Canadian bank, the question remains: which Canadian bank is best to invest in today? How can you tell which bank will give you the best long-term performance? There are a few performance clues you can look out for.

When deciding which Canadian bank is best to invest in, you want to start with the same criteria you would use in any investment:

We believe Canada’s big banks are still well positioned to weather any downturn in the Canadian economy, contrary to pessimistic forecasts on the banks’ prospects from some in the business media. They trade at attractive multiples to earnings and continue to raise their dividends.

Bank of Nova Scotia remains one of our top picks among Canada’s big five banks due to its wide international exposure. Here’s why:

Bank of Nova Scotia remains our top choice Canadian bank

BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA (Toronto symbol BNS; Finance sector; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.scotiabank.com) is Canada’s third-largest bank. It remains our top pick for anyone who asks which Canadian bank is best to invest in. That’s mainly because it continues to expand in regions like Latin America, South America and Asia.

Acquisitions have played a large role in Bank of Nova Scotia’s recent growth. One of its most prominent acquisitions has been ING Direct, the specialist in no-fee banking services. Early in 2014, Bank of Nova Scotia changed ING’s name to Tangerine, which let this business keep using the orange colour associated with ING Direct—and continues to give the bank’s customers access to a no-fee banking service.

There’s still room for the bank to expand throughout Latin America and Asia, especially as their growing middle classes look for stable deposit and consumer-lending services.

Bank of Nova Scotia is a buy in TSI and CWA.

Don’t limit your investing to bank stocks

Simply put, a well-constructed stock portfolio will make your life easier and maximize your gains.

Early in their investing careers, many investors have only a vague idea of the value of a planned portfolio when investing in the stock market.

When you try to pick a handful of stocks that will all beat the market, you are asking a lot of yourself. No one, not even people that devote their entire lives to it, has ever been able to consistently pick stock-market winners over long periods.

On the other hand, it’s relatively easy to acquire a balanced, diversified portfolio of mainly high-quality dividend paying stocks, spread out across the five main economic sectors: Resources & Commodities, Finance, Manufacturing & Industry, Utilities and Consumer.

If you diversify, you improve your chances of making money over long periods, no matter what happens in the market.

For example, Manufacturing stocks may suffer if raw-material prices rise, but in that case your Resources stocks will gain. Rising wages can put pressure on manufacturers, but your Consumer stocks should do better as workers spend more.

If borrowers can’t pay back their loans, your Finance stocks will suffer. But high default rates usually lead to lower interest rates, which push up the value of your Utilities stocks.

Spreading your holdings out across the five sectors helps you avoid overloading yourself with stocks that are about to slump because of industry conditions or a change in investor fashion. By diversifying across the sectors, you increase your chances of stumbling upon a market superstar – a stock that does two to three or more times better than the market average.

These stocks come along every year. By nature, their appearance is unpredictable: if you could routinely spot them ahead of time, you’d quickly acquire a large proportion of all the money in the world, and nobody ever does that.

Pat McKeough has been one of Canada’s most respected investment advisors for over three decades. He is the founder and senior editor of TSI Network and the founder of Successful Investor Wealth Management. He is also the author of several acclaimed investment books.

 

 

Advisors now more likely to recommend ETFs for clients than mutual funds

davenadiq
Dave Nadig

Here’s my latest MoneySense blog, which recaps the two-day  Exchange Traded Forum 2016 in Toronto this week.

You can find the full blog by clicking on this headline: Are ETFs beating out mutual funds in popularity?

Pictured to the left is Dave Nadig, ETF director for FactSet Research Systems Inc. of Norwalk, CT,  who in his keynote address said that since the financial crisis,  net mutual fund inflows were US$61 billion, compared to a whopping US$1.2 trillion for ETFs.

Hockey stick curve

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Sensible Investing TV: final episode of How to win the Loser’s Game

Screen Shot 2016-04-13 at 9.17.13 PMOur journey is almost done.

We’ve explained how the odds are heavily stacked against the ordinary investor – and how, by settling for an average return, and refusing to pay a small fortune in charges, you can end up as one of the winners, saving yourself a great deal of time, effort and worry in the process.

But there is a much bigger issue here. It’s not just we as individuals who are losing out. The whole world faces a pensions crisis. We’re living longer, and although most of us will work longer, there’ll be huge numbers of people retiring without enough funds to sustain them through their later lives.

How to cope with the looming global pension crisis

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