In a recent Questrade research study conducted by Leger¹, more than 8 in 10 Canadians (84%) expressed worry about the rising costs of inflation; two in five (39%) said they were very worried.
Rising inflation and the impact on mortgage costs have many worried, especially the younger demographic: approximately 45% of those polled.
The survey also found that Canadians aged 18 – 34 understand the importance of investing early and are much more likely to be investing more in their RRSPs to buy a home. Happily, this generation is committed to planning ahead, and will benefit from programs like the Home Buyer’s Plan when the opportunity is right.
Rebuilding the home ownership experience from the ground up
To ease current consumer anxiety, address pain points associated with home buying and mortgages, and help Canadians on their journey to financial independence, QuestMortgage®has been introduced as a direct-to- consumer mortgage offering to help make home ownership easy and affordable.
Designed as a simple, digital service for those looking to buy a first home or renew their mortgage, it is an alternative to traditional mortgages: available online 24/7, without the need to ever visit a branch. A QuestMortgage BetterRate™ offers low rates at the outset, with a team of dedicated mortgage advisors accessible to guide clients through the entire application process. The new service aims to change the status quo, making the process of home ownership straightforward, transparent and stress-free for Canadians of every age. Continue Reading…
Ottawa has just released its federal Budget 2022, which seems to validate the pre-release fears that a de facto Liberal NDP coalition would be a high-spending, high-taxing affair. You can find the full budget documents at the Department of Finance web site here. It is as expected “a typical NDP tax-and-spend budget,” as interim Conservative Leader Candice Bergen told the CBC.
Budget 2022 is unmemorably titled A Plan to Grow Our Economy and Make Life More Affordable, weighing in relatively slim by federal budget standards: just shy of 300 pages. Of course, the NDP is all over this document, which is why I call the de facto coalition the LibDP.
Naturally, the NDP’s pet priority is included, with $5.3 billion over 5 years for national dental care. As CTV reported, the program will offer dental care to families with annual incomes below $90,000, with no co-pays for those under $70,000 annually in income. The first phase in 2022 will offer dental care to children under 12.
Big focus on affordable housing
Of the $56 billion in projected new spending over six years, $10 billion is going to housing over five years, with a one-time $500 payment to those struggling with housing affordability. And as expected, foreign buyers will be shut out of the market for condos, apartments, and single residential units for the next two years.
They are also cracking down on home flippers, introducing new rules as of January 2023, such that if anyone sells a property held for less than 12 months it would be considered to a flip and be subject to full tax on their profits as business income (with some exceptions in certain special cases).
National Defence will get $8 billion over 5 years, There’s $500 million for military aid to Ukraine and $1 billion in loans.
Perhaps we should use CTV News’ phrase and describe the spending as “targeted”:
The budget proposes $9.5 billion in new spending for the 2022-23 fiscal year — with the biggest ticket items focused on housing supply, Indigenous reconciliation, addressing climate change, and national defence — while also set to take in more than $2 billion in revenue-generating efforts.
New “Minimum Tax Regime”
CTV reports that Budget 2022 “puts high earners on notice that the government thinks some high-income Canadians aren’t paying enough in personal income tax.” The Liberals say they will be examining “a new minimum tax regime, which will go further towards ensuring that all wealthy Canadians pay their fair share.”
Here is the Globe & Mail’s initial overview (paywall.) Or click this headline:
According to the Globe, the planned bank tax is different from the initial proposal from the Liberal’s 2021 election platform: rather than a three percentage point surtax on earnings over $1-billion, the budget announces a 1.5 percentage point increase on taxable income over $100 million. That brings the tax rate on those earnings from 15% to 16.5%.
In addition to $4-billion for cities to build 100,000 new homes, Ottawa will provide tax-free home savings accounts of up to $40,000. Future first time homebuyers will get an RRSP-style tax rebate when they contribute and the money can grow tax free. First-time homebuyers will also get a tax credit of $1,500 and a home renovation tax credit of up to $7,500 to help families add second suites for family members. Continue Reading…
But not now. Not after Putin invaded Ukraine. It feels wrong to go about business as usual while most of us are asking important questions about this geopolitical crisis.
By no means do our financial concerns detract from the greater, human toll. That said, if I can help you remain resolute as the world justifiably severs Russia’s access to capital markets and the global economy, perhaps we can both do our part to restore justice in Ukraine.
So, let’s talk about geopolitics and investing during wartime. Here are my key takeaways:
Big picture, geopolitical events’ impact on financial markets are usually short-lived
To help you keep your financial wits about you, consider Vanguard’s historical perspective on how the U.S. stock market has responded to other geopolitical crises over the past six decades. As Vanguard’s chart depicts in the article Ukraine and the Changing market environment, the turmoil has typically translated into initial sell-offs. But markets have also exhibited remarkable resilience, delivering returns in line with long-term averages as soon as six months later. That’s not to predict the same outcome this time, but it reinforces the wisdom of betting for vs. against the market’s staying powers.
Credit: Vanguard – Ukraine and the changing market environment
“A new dimension of risk has entered the financial markets with heightened tensions in Ukraine …
We know this, however, about equity markets in the context of geopolitical risks: they’ve been resilient, much as markets have always been resilient in the face of various risks. We expect the markets to work themselves out, reaching new heights over time and at varying paces …
So now is not the time to give up your fortitude. Now is the time to take it all in with a deep breath, knowing that this day would come — and knowing that it will pass.”
Speaking of predictions, ignore those who claim to know what’s going to happen next
“People who generate better sound bites generate better media ratings, and that is what gets people promoted in the media business. So, there is a bit of a perverse inverse relationship between having the skills that go into being a good forecaster and having the skills that go into being an effective media presence.”
In other words, those forecasts you’re hearing are more likely to sound like sure (often scary) bets, and less likely to be reasoned reflections on the many ways any given event might play out. In fact, evidence suggests, the more certain an expert seems about their forecast, the more skeptical you should be about its worth.
Real-return bonds pay a return adjusted for inflation. But when you buy a real-return bond, you are only protecting yourself against unanticipated rises in inflation.
Real-return bonds pay you a rate of return that’s adjusted for inflation, but that’s not always as promising as it seems.
When a real-return bond is issued, the level of the consumer price index (CPI) on that date is applied to the bond. After that, both the principal and interest payments are typically adjusted every six months, upwards or downwards from that base level, to compensate for a rise or fall in the CPI.
Look at this theoretical example to understand how a real-return bond works
The Bank of Canada issues $400 million of 30-year bonds maturing on December 1, 2049. The bonds have a coupon, or interest rate, of 2%.
If after six months from the date of issue, the new CPI level is, say, 1% above the level of the CPI on the issue date, then each $1,000 of bond principal is adjusted to $1,010 of bond principal ($1,000 x 1.01). The semi-annual interest payment is then $10.10 ($1,010 x 2% / 2).
If after 12 months, the level is 2% higher, then the bond principal is adjusted to $1,020 ($1,000 x 1.02), and the interest payment rises to $10.20 ($1,020 x 2% / 2).
Consider these three important factors to realize benefits with real-return bonds
The price you pay for real-return bonds reflects the anticipated rate of inflation. In other words, if investors feel that inflation will rise 2% over the long term, the price of the bond will reflect that future inflation increase and its effect on the bond’s principal and interest payments. So, when you buy a real-return bond, you are only protecting yourself against unanticipated rises in inflation.
When the inflation rate falls over a six-month period, the principal and interest payments of a real-return bond fall. In times of deflation, the inflation rate turns negative. In a prolonged period of deflation, the principal of a real-return bond could fall below the purchase price. Interest payments would fall, as well.
As with regular bonds, holders of real-return bonds must pay tax on interest payments at the same rate as ordinary income. That income gets taxed at the investor’s marginal rate. In addition, holders of real-return bonds must also report the amount by which the inflation-adjusted principal rises each year, as interest income, even though you won’t receive that amount until the bond matures. That amount is added to the bond’s adjusted cost base.
If the CPI level falls, that reduces the inflation-adjusted principal. You deduct the amount of that reduction from your taxable interest income that year, and also subtract it from the adjusted cost base.
Find out how real-return bonds compare to regular bonds and if they make better additions to your portfolio
In simple terms, a bond is a form of lending whereby you lend money to a corporation or government. In return, a bond pays a fixed rate of interest during its life. Eventually, a bond matures, and holders get the bond’s face value—but nothing more. Receiving the fixed interest and face value at maturity is the best that can happen. Note, though, that in some cases, corporate bonds can go into default. As well, inflation can devastate the purchasing power of bonds and other fixed-return investments.
Furthermore, bonds also generate more commission fees and income for your broker, compared to stocks, especially if you buy them via bond funds and other investment products. Continue Reading…
Over time, most investment dealers have implemented misguided policies that will negatively affect their clients’ investment portfolios and their ability to achieve a secure retirement.
There are two main policies that have negative impacts on investors’ portfolios. One is restricting investments to a client’s original Risk Tolerance in the Know Your Client application form (KYC). When opening an account, the client will advise the dealer of their Risk Tolerance. Most clients will indicate that they are medium risk. On March 8, 2017, the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) implemented risk rating rules that require all mutual funds to rate their fund according to 10-year standard deviation. In 2018, I published an article entitled New Mandatory Risk Rating is Misleading Canadian investors.
Prior to the OSC’s implementation of the risk rating rules, on December 13, 2013, the OSC issued CSA Notice 81-324 and Request to Comment – Proposed CSA Mutual Fund Risk Classification Methodologyfor Use in Fund Facts. My comments on this policy were submitted to the OSC on March 12, 2014, along with comments from 50 other industry experts.
A better, more accurate methodology would have used downside standard deviation or the Sharpe or Sortino ratios which measure risk adjusted returns. Nevertheless, the OSC implemented risk rating rules requiring all mutual funds to rate the risk of their funds according to 10 year standard deviation.
As a result, if investments in a client’s portfolio exceeded the risk tolerance as indicated in the original KYC, the client was forced to redeem those investments, by the advisor’s compliance department. A number of BMG’s clients were forced to redeem their positions since our funds had a medium-high risk rating according to the OSC formula, and the clients’ KYC indicated medium-risk tolerance. A number of clients wanted to change the KYC in order to allow them to maintain ownership of our funds but were advised that, unless there was a significant change in their financial circumstances, they could not change their KYC.Continue Reading…
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