All posts by Jonathan Chevreau

Retired Money: how to prepare for “Transitory for Longer’ inflation

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As oxymorons go, you have to love the phrase “Transitory for Longer,” which comes up in my latest MoneySense Retired Money column. It looks at inflation, which of course is in the news virtually every day this summer, and one reason why stock markets are starting to weaken again (along with renewed Covid fears). You can find the full MoneySense column by clicking on the following headline: How might Inflation impact your Retirement plans?

As with trying to divine short-term moves in stocks or interest rates, I view predicting inflation — whether near-term, medium-term or longer-term — as somewhat futile. So the column preaches much the same as it would about positioning portfolios for stock declines or rises in interest rates: broad diversification of asset classes.

Asset Allocation for all Seasons

The ever useful four asset classes of Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio I find may be a good initial mix of assets to prepare for all possibilities: stocks for prosperity, bonds for deflation, cash for depression/recession and gold for inflation. Browne, who died in 2006,  famously allocated 25% to each.

That’s a good place to start, although as I point out in the column, many might add Real Estate/REITs and make it a five-way split each of 20%. Some suggest 10% in gold (both bullion ETFs and gold mining stock ETFs), which might be expanded to include other precious metals like silver, platinum and palladium. Some might add to this a 5% position in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which some view as “digital gold.”

To the extent stock markets and interest rates will forever fluctuate over the course of a retirement, such a diversified approach could help you sleep at night, as some asset classes zig as others zag. Seldom will all these assets soar at once, but hopefully it will be just as rare for all to plunge at once.

Annuities and new “Tontine” approaches

Another approach to this problem is not so much Asset Allocation but what finance professor Moshe Milevsky has dubbed “Product Allocation.” Continue Reading…

My review of The Boomers Retire

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column reviews the new fifth edition of The Boomers Retire by certified financial planners Alexandra Macqueen and David Field. Click on the highlighted headline here to retrieve full article: Fresh takes on the challenges facing baby boomers as they approach retirement.

As I note in the column, the original edition of The Boomers Retire (which I read at the time) was by Lynn Biscott and was published back in 2008.

Macqueen and Field are both CFPs and the book is aimed at both financial advisors as well as their clients, as indicated in the book’s subtitle.

Clearly, retiring boomers constitute a massive potential readership. I myself co-authored The Wealthy Boomer, way back in 1998. At that time, baby boomers may have started to worry about Retirement but most, including myself, would have been squarely in the Wealth accumulation camp.

Wealthy Boomers now well on way to transition to Decumulation

Here in 2021, Decumulation is the emerging financial focus of Baby Boomers, many of whom will already be retired or semi-retired, and considering new decumulation solutions like the Purpose Longevity Fund, which this site has looked at more than once. (here via Dale Roberts and here via another MoneySense Retired Money column.) Continue Reading…

New 2nd edition of US version of Findependence Day now available; plus an Interview with Myself

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Happy Canada Day!

Just in time for America’s Independence Day, I’m happy to announce that a new updated 2021 edition of Findependence Day is now available in the US market. Published by Best Books Media in New York, you can buy the paperback version of the book here through Amazon.com.

Or you can buy the new paperback for US$15.99 or Nook ebook for US$1.99 at Barnes & Noble.

Below is an Interview with Myself, which explains the timing, the differences and other things. If “An Interview with Myself” strikes some as a little bizarre, let me acknowledge that I originally got that idea from British journalist and author Malcolm Muggeridge, who I knew when he was the Writer in Residence at the University of Western Ontario journalism school in 1978-1979.

So without further ado, here’s the Q&A with myself:

 

Jon Chevreau: So Jon, you already had an American edition out in 2013. Why are you updating it eight years later?

Jon Chevreau: Good question, Jon, it’s mostly a matter of timing and the fact that North America, led by the United States, is just starting to emerge from the Covid pandemic. Suddenly, young people are starting to have hope again about their futures, including their financial futures. And, Findependence Day is a novel geared to younger adults, millennials, people just starting out on their life’s journey.

JC-Q: I see. I know Canada is a bit behind the USA in its vaccination program and economic recovery, but why a new US edition and not a new Canadian edition?

JC-A: True but the fact is that while the original Canadian edition has sold well and continues to sell in Canada, the original print run was such that there are still enough copies left that it doesn’t make much sense to make the old version obsolete. And besides, the content in the Canadian edition is still current.

As you know, Jon, the first edition from 2008 was actually written as a North American edition and attempted to include both Canadian and American content. But you decided a few years ago that the US market — which after all is ten times as large — needed its own edition with no reference at all to Canada or to Canadian financial content.

JC-Q: How do the different editions differ?

JC-A: Well, both the 2013 Trafford U.S. edition and the updated 2021 Best Books US edition are what I wanted the original edition to be. The cover concept was always the one you see above: it’s just that when Power Publishers published the first edition, the design team there went with the cover concept of the red balloon in the blue sky.

JC-Q: But you really wanted the image of a calendar set in the future, circling July 4th as the Findependence Day selected by one of your main characters?

JC-A: Correct. The 2013 and 2021 covers are quite similar although Best Books slightly reworked it and we changed the futuristic date from 2027 to 2036.

JC-Q: So the protagonist, Jamie, still has 15 years to achieve his dream of Financial Independence while he’s still young enough to enjoy it?

JC-A: Quite right, Jon.

JC-Q: Any other big differences?

JC-A: Well, the other thing the two US edition incorporated was something some people suggested I include in the original Canadian edition but chose not to at the time. That’s the chapter summary at the end of each chapter of the key lessons that Jamie and his wife Sheena learned. The new 2021 edition retains that feature and updates some of the financial info.

JC-Q: How do you categorize Findependence Day? Is it non-fiction or is it fiction?

JC-A: I wish you hadn’t asked that one, Jon because that’s a tough one to answer. In truth, it’s a hybrid of fiction and non-fiction, which I realize is a bit unusual.

JC-Q: So which is it, if you put a gun to our head?

JC-A: First, I’d say please remove the gun. Second, I’d say it’s primarily a novel but a financial novel.

JC-Q: Like David Chilton’s The Wealthy Barber and its many imitators?

JC-A: Sure, David Chilton established this genre way back in 1989 and no one has sold more copies than him in that niche. Incidentally, David has told us he “believes” in Findependence Day and that it is “excellent.” You can find that among the many laudatory testimonials the book has gathered over the years.

JC-Q: So why the hybrid and how does Findependence Day differ from all those other Wealthy Barber knockoffs?

JC-A: Well, most of the imitators tend to be what I call “information dumps” — the focus tends to be on the financial information and the stories around them tend to be a bit thin when it comes to characterization, plot etc.

JC-Q: And Findependence Day isn’t?

JC-A: We tried to bring traditional novel-writing structure and techniques into the book so that the young people who are its target audience would first be entertained and drawn in sufficiently that they’d want to see what happened to Jamie and Sheena. Yes, we sprinkle in the financial info as the plot proceeds but not at the expense of Story. So the minute any financial dump starts to sound contrived and unlikely to occur in real life, we cut it short and returned to the story.

That’s another reason for the end-of-chapter summaries and incidentally the reason we also created two Amazon ebooks that summarize the plot and reprise the end-of-chapter summaries. They cost just $2.99: they’re called A Novel Approach to Financial Independence. (one for Canada, the other for the US)

JC-Q. In short, we tried to write a “real novel.”

JC-A. We did try and many reviewers seemed to think we pulled it off. One financial planner, Diane McCurdy, said Findependence Day is “the closest you’ll come to a great beach book that helps you make enough money to retire!”

JC-Q: How is it a beach read? Continue Reading…

Financial knowledge of Canada’s retirement system isn’t improving, study shows

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Financial knowledge about the Canadian retirement system fell from 2020 to 2021, says the Retirement Savings Institute.

The financial literacy of average Canadians is still low when it comes to understanding our Retirement system, says a survey being released Tuesday. The third edition of the Retirement Savings Institute (RSI) surveyed 3,002 Canadians aged 35 to 54 and found the overall RSI index measuring knowledge of the retirement income system slipped from 38% in 2020 to 37% in 2021. This, it says, is “still showing a significant lack of knowledge among Canadians.”

The RSI Index is the share (stated as a percentage) of correct answers to  29 questions posed in the survey.

The best-understood subjects continue to be CPP/QPP and RRSPs/TFSAs. Canadians still find it tougher to understand employer sponsored pension plans and Old Age Security, where the average respondents “didn’t know” the answer to half the questions.

In a backgrounder, the RSI team at HEC Montreal [a business school] says the scientific literature in several countries has established a link between general financial literacy and preparation for Retirement. However, “the level  of general financial literacy among Canadians is fairly low, although comparable to what is observed elsewhere in industrialized countries.” It also finds knowlege about narrower topics like taxes to be “rather limited.”

Starting in 2018, the RSI started to measure on an annual basis the financial literacy of Canadians in their “years of strong asset accumulation in preparation for retirement.” Those younger than 35 tend to have “other concerns and financial priorities than retirement,” the RSI says.

Knowledge rises with education and income, and as retirement nears

Not surprisingly, the closer to Retirement age one is, the more knowledgeable of related financial matters we tend to become. The RSI score was 33.9% for the youngest in the survey aged 35 to 39, rising to 36.6% for the 40 to 44 cohort, then to 37.8% for the 45-49 group, and a high of 39.5% for those 50 to 54.

Also as one would expect, the more schooling the higher the score: those with high school or less had an RSI score of 31.5%, while those with college or equivalent scored 36.9%, and those with a Bachelor’s degree or higher scored on average 45.3%. Similarly, the higher the household income, the better knowledge. Thus, those with household income of $30,000 or less scored just 26.1%, compared to $60,000 to $90,000 families scoring 37.3% and at the highest, families making $120,000 or more scored 45.6%.

Equally unsurprising is the fact that higher earners are more knowledgeable about RRSPs and TFSAs, especially when it comes to contribution room and withdrawal rules. They are less knowledgeable about investment returns in those vehicles, and score a low 12.6% on penalties for over contributions and other rules related to taxes.

Many confused about Employer Pensions

Employer pension plans seems to be an issue. At all ages, Canadians found it difficult to know the difference between Defined Benefit (DB) and Defined Contribution (DC) pension plans. In particular, they tend to be confused about which one reduces longevity risk (DB) and which depends on returns generated by financial markets (DC). Low-income individuals are even less knowledgeable.

Workers who are contributing employer pension plans had significantly higher scores (41%) than those who were not enrolled in such plans (32.9%).

The older and richer understand CPP/QPP better

Also as you’d expect, older people and more well-off people understand the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) or the Quebec Pension Plan (QPP) better. As the chart below illustrates, most Canadians are now well aware that taking early CPP/QPP benefits results in lower monthly benefits (shown in the “Penalty” bar), but there is still a lot of confusion about whether CPP/QPP recipients can collect benefits while still working (only 25% correctly answer this.)

Most Canadians know there is a penalty for taking CPP/QPP benefits early but there is much confusion about collecting while still working.

Older people also know OAS and GIS better. As the chart below shows, most people know you have to be at least 65 years old to receive OAS, but knowledge about technical matters like the OAS clawback, the Guaranteed Income Supplement to the OAS, and taxation of these benefits tends to be much scantier.

Basic OAS timing seems well understood but many are murky when it comes to clawbacks and eligibility and taxation of GIS benefits.

Mortgages well understood, bonds and debt not so much

When it comes to major financial products, Canadians are quite knowledgeable about compound interest, but as less so about debt doubling and quite ill-informed about Bonds, as the chart below indicates. ( Continue Reading…

Kornel Szrejber’s Podcast interview with me and PWL’s Ben Felix about the 2021 MoneySense ETF All-Stars

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An interesting analysis of the annual MoneySense ETF All-stars feature is now available on a one-hour podcast interview hosted by BuildWealthCanada.ca’s Kornel Szrejber, with myself and PWL Capital’s Ben Felix. Click on this highlighted text for the full session: The Best ETFs in Canada for 2021.

Initially, the interview is audio-only, available through iTunes and the usual podcast services. Later there will be a version that also shows video.

The full 2021 edition of the ETF all-stars can be found here at the MoneySense site, and the Hub’s summary here. The feature appeared early in April.

There are various links to the ETFs, including the ticker symbols (most of them trading on the TSX).

Kornel Szrejber

After kind introductions of both me and Ben Felix, both of us then added a few more details about our careers before Kornel started the formal interview. He did so by asking about the general philosophy behind the All-Stars and the mechanics of how we got eight ETF experts to agree on designating roughly 50 ETFs (from a universe of near a thousand) as ETF All-Stars.

The philosophy underlying the All-stars

As I explain in the MoneySense overview, the feature – now in its 8th year – aims to help individual investors (with or without the assistance of advisors) whittle down the overwhelming choice of ETFs now on the market. The goal has never been to whipsaw investors with change for the sake of change, but rather we strive to pick “buy and hold” broadly diversified low-cost ETFs that can be held over the years and ideally the decades.

Except for the individual “Desert Island Picks” (see below), generally the idea has been to avoid flavor-of-the-month theme funds or regional equity ETFs too narrowly focused on single countries (apart from Canada and the US). As a result, we try to keep the list to a manageable number that don’t necessarily change with every passing year. Of course, once in a while there is a “game-changer” that requires a revamp: the Asset Allocation ETFs from Vanguard Canada and subsequently its major competitors being the best example.

We also assume our readers are probably not day traders but looking for low-cost manageable portfolios that might be tweaked annually but likely won’t welcome a total revamp of their investments every year. We assume some are DIY investors buying them from discount brokerages, some have full-service advisors (including shops like PWL Capital), and some are hybrid investors who largely invest on their own but like to validate their approach through perhaps a fee-only advisor.

How the panel “votes” 

As for the mechanics of choosing the ETFs, as I tell Kornel, the eight expert panelists simply debate by email or Slack and “vote” on a spreadsheet. We have four teams of two each and once each team agrees, we try and find a consensus among the four teams. So 5 out of 8 votes would carry the day: I myself don’t vote unless there is a 4-4 tie and the tie needs to be broken.

After the introductory chat, there is a brief interlude where Kornel describes his own personal transition to financial independence and semi-retirement, and addresses his own personal ETF picks, and why he holds his emergency cash with EQ Bank (as does our family). Continue Reading…